iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,771 Blog Posts

FALSE ALARM: More Nothing

Futures have recovered and now we’re jimmy-rigging towards a flat open. Trump’s big beautiful stock market is intact, as well as his Presidency. Turkey is menacing Europe with 3.5m refugees if they don’t SHUT THE FUCK UP about their invasion.

And…more nothing.

Happy Thursday.

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12 comments

  1. ferd

    Fed want inflation.
    Bond look like want roll over again.
    Yet PMs look buyableish.

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    • numbersgame

      If you read their minutes, they even said that it would be preferential to break up their arbrtitrary-none-research-backed 2% target to make up for low inflation i nthe past. Would love to see how the politics of that are handled.

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  2. roguewave

    Poof!
    Your rights, never existed.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYUryOZath8

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  3. numbersgame

    I’m glad i got out of my NFLX short yesterday – market looked too bullish in the short term. I’m watching closely to decide if this is just another tag-resitance-and-crash play or if it has legs.

    One thing that is note worthy is the NBA blowup. Their is an article in the SCMP aobut it, and it specifically quotes both Trump’s and Pompeo’s support of the NBA commision’s satnd on freedom of expresssion. This is like entering negotiations by saying, “You guys are dicks, but let’s get this done.” While that is accpetable for some, the offense to China’s pride is probabbly underestiamted by Trump’s White House leadership which lacks international expereriecne (except with Russia…).

    BTW, that SCMP article that talsk about the “Dim prsopects” mentions this:
    “Sticking points include China’s alleged forced technology transfer, state subsidies, market reforms and a mechanism that would force China to make good on its promises.”

    So what isn’t a sticking point? China buying desperately needed commodities. In other words, China doesn’t want to give up ***anything***.

    Now takea look from the Chinese persepctive: what is America willign to give up? Again, the answer is ***nothing***. Things are a little different, becuase America already has a wide-open economy and strong (aome woudl say too-strong) IP protections. Of course, state-sposored industry subsidies are something they sahre in common.

    Finally, look at the hard-nosed, egotistical leadership on both sides, and it’s obviosu that the cahnce of a significant deal are zero.

    Let’s say we go back to the sattus quo: all tariffs removed, no change to Chian’s policy (empty promises with no enforcement mecahnism). What will the stock market do? Before you answer, consider the fact that the stock market has ratcheted up so often on trade war deal ruomors, it is now **higher that it was when the first tariffs were announced” (Jan 22, 2018)

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    • ericbakerbruce

      Your posts are longer than a Hemingway short story.

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      • alty

        “Itisshowtime” with better English.

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      • numbersgame

        Yup. Here’s something shorter. The amrket spiekd up on Trump’s tweet:
        “Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, ***but do I?*** I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House.”

        I’m bearishly biased, but I read that as:
        “There will be no deal.”

        Really, Trump doesn’t want a deal mid-impeachment inquiry? Riiiight…

        Its Trump’s way of saving face when no deal is inevitably reached. It’s like when someone breaks up because they want to pre-empt being dumped.

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  4. ferd

    Bonds down, but dollar down and gold diggers hanging in. The market believes in inflation more today than yesterday.

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    • numbersgame

      Bonds down big last two days. I just bought Dec TLT calls

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      • ferd

        I’m short …TLT might yet have unfinished business down in the 132s.

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        • numbersgame

          I can see a possible short-term move down to $136.5 (reason I bought Dec instead of October), but heavily caution agaisnt anything further.

          Given macroeconmics (eventual recession), long term trend (30+ years!), zero-to-interest-rate foreign competetion, and the FED, the most predictable sector move is long US Treasuries in the 24-month time frame, IMHO.

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