The weather is getting warmer and the summer months are almost in grasp. Hedge fund managers and fuck-head “investment advisors” are all going to France this year — to behold and take selfies in front of the charred Notre Dame Cathedral — because it’s the wrong thing to do. After that, they’ll visit Bordeaux or fuck off into Eastern Europe to take more pictures of statues and/or eat pizza in Rome — like the uncultured swine they are, without regrets of sense of self awareness.
Meanwhile, junior at the trading turret will try his best not to fuck up the returns enjoyed during the first half of 2019, an unbelievable year so far — highlighted by a V-shaped recovery in stocks and a surreal continuation of the bull market that began in 2009.
It has been 10 years since the market bottomed. No one thought it was possible — but here we are with markets pressing record highs and all of the bears, filthy and disgusting, in wheeled chairs being tossed into hot burning fires.
Dow futures are higher by 165 and I really do not need to look at the news, or try to understand why stocks are going to careen higher today — just like I wouldn’t inquire as to why a hungry lion ate a zebra. This is what markets do and there is nothing at all that I can say or do to change that.
I like oil and new IPOs at the highs here for more. The “Amazon of Africa”, JMIA — BASED ON GERMANY — continues to soar and even though I think it’s stupid and absurd — who am I to deny it? I can’t and won’t.
This being the last month before asset managers fuck off for France — I suspect the Grande Finale of this glamorous 2019 rally will commence now though first week of May and then tether and taper before junior slips on a slippery bottle of booze and ruins on otherwise sanguine existence.
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Are you still in $SOLY? CUZ GODDAM!!! perhaps one of your best calls in quite a while
“Amazon of Africa” peaked my interest, so I went to look at the numbers.
If you just look at the Revenue vs the Cost of the items sold + delivery costs (“Cost of Revenue” + “Fulfillment Expense”), they are already in the red. Their *actual* business model seems to be build market share by subsidizing their customer’s shipping costs. AMZN had the huge advantage of good infrastructre (roads) in the US, so their costs of shipping was ~3% of revenue, as opposed to 20-30% (Jumia).
Once you factor in sales, marketing, technology (servers), and administation, the red ink goes deeper. Also, considering that they amount the IPO raided (~$195M) only covers the loss fo 2018, they will be back for more money befoer the year is up. For reference, the initial offering of $14.5 corresponds to a value of $1B, and 2018 revenue was ~$150M. So the current price of $40/share is a P/S ratio of 18, which is very high.
Also note that “Africa” is a continent, not a country. They are too spread out:
https://services.jumia.com/#where-we-are
They are going broad and shallow when they should have concentrated on just 2 or 3 countries first to refine their model.
Here’s some links:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756708/000119312519105752/d650749d424b4.htm
https://services.jumia.com/
Long Friday SLV 14 strikes on potential short set-up failure.