Nothing can stop us now. Markets are calmly breezing thru the rarefied air of risk and I exercised my discretion to increase my exposure to said risk, thru the purchases of VIOT, GSKY, and LASR. Granted, these are all stocks worthy of the trash can; but I intend to make treasure out of them and there’s nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it.
I spent most of my day discussing a full Exodus re-write with a shit-load of new features — all of which with both amuse and amaze you — the Third Estate prattling canaille. Just know and understand, when I finish this project and launch it upon the masses — if you don’t join and become a member — I will find you and punch your jaws loose.
WTI up another 1%, markets are fucking off higher. Notre Dame is in ashes, and “The Fly” is soaring to new highs. That pretty much sums up the day.
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I heard Nostradamus burned down.
I liked him.
Hopefully Macaroni and his killer cat Old Yellow
also go down.
Are you going to include Sharpe Ratios in your new Exodus?
I’m still tracking your Sharpe Basket from a year ago. Even with the stock amrket recovery, they are still underperforming the indices.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2018/04/04/advisorfags-get-sharpe-ratios-added-exodus/#comment-548617
Sharpe Ratio can be a useful tool, but just like most things Wall Street creates, it’s not as straightforward as you think.
In other news, a couple of Arsonists have written a book on “Firefighting”
Where’s your stop on TLT? That thing could cause some pain.
I actaully own T-bonds directly – less fees. However, here’s the thing: I have no stop.
The key is that this isn’t a *trade*. It’s a long term holding, betting (that’s the term) on a recession, with several advantages over other moves:
1) Unlike shorting stocks, I don’t have to figure out the peak
2) Unlike puts, and ultra-shorts, there is no time decay
3) unliek VIX trades, I don’t have to know timing (and time decay is horrible)
SO I don’t have to know *when* the stocks peak, at what *level* stocks peak, or even *why* stocks peak
Bascially two things have to go right:
1) we go into a recession before I sell the bonds
2) Long-term interest rates drop
Now the second one is the real risk to think about. How coudl it go wrong? Well, ithe market keeps running up, then interest rates will rise and I’ll have a large paper-loss. There’s a good cahnce that this will happen at some point (although 3% is strong ceiling resistance).
However, if we have a recession, then the FED will 99% lower short-term rates. I think long terms rates will drop with a flight to safety. In fact, the FED will also likely go with QE4, in which case they will *directly* lower long term rates.
It’s like talking to a moron.
That Sharpe basket was only good for that time frame. It moves, like everything else. You’re too stupid for your own good.
If you are saying that looking at the Sharpe ratio to decide if an investment will have good long-term prospects is a bad idea, then I fully agree.
Of course, I’d go further and say that looking at Sharpe ratios for *short* time frames is also naive. Care to test that theory with some data?
Gentleman Fly might I suggest you try a nice CBD tincture to sooth your aching mind and soul?
31.31% YTD
I’ll take a screenshot when I hit 33.33%