The whip-saw action continues. We reversed a huge open and plummeted, led by oil. As prescribed, I acted upon it and allocated 15% of my assets into three 3x ETFs. The subsequent results since then, a few hours ago, is disappointment, as markets have stopped going lower and now moving sharply higher.
I was not trading for intra-day, instead looking for a 2-3 day hold. However, given the move lower yesterday, coupled with a potential large upside move today — you get a whole lot of circle jerk and indecision. I suppose the best option is to sit it out. But it’s my belief that if we get a follow thru day on the downside today, we would have entered a new leg lower in the bear market that had begun three months ago.
For now, I am patiently watching the markets for a firm direction and will likely do nothing until 3:45pm.
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Short /nq, stop 2:03 high
A word on market timing:
Stock don’t bottom *prior to the start* of a recession. They go down prior to the start of a recssion, and **keep going down** during the early phases of the recession. They bottom during or after a recession.
We are not presently in a recession, far from it based on employment.
So if we go into a recession in 2019 **or 2020**, stock are likely to go down this year.
Oops, this was in response to the Dimon post. I agree that’s it’s too early to see where we’ll end up on Friday (although I am on record saying I *think* Monday/Tuesday was the top).
In other news, Hulu drops the price for its streaming service to $6 per month for US subscribers. Can’t wait for Disney’s big announcement, so I can watch NFLX get sqeezed at both ends of the price spectrum.
Dimon: “like a ship” that could hit …….. an iceberg?
all mental masturbation; way too volatile to make an educated guess as to where it’s going to go.
algos much more quick and intelligent ; no way to get an edge on them.
Depends on your time frame.
Algos *are* quick, but they are *not* intelligent. On the contrary, they are programmed baed on the belief that the past predicts the future. Instead if things don’t compute, they just stop trading – or worse. Flash crashes are algo creations. You can’t beat them minute by minute, but there is no need to to.
APHA… in play now having refused a take out offer that was a joke; nevertheless it is now in play.
most likely outcome?? a 35% premium in under 3 months.
Closing green and give a red next day.
Surprised market shrugged off China comments. Market wants higher.