Futures are +200 and some will suggest it’s because of tweets from the President about China trade talks. But they’d be wrong.
Talks with China are going very well!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2019
This is idiotic propaganda, rooted in emotion for the expressed purposes of rallying stocks. Here’s another Trump tweet this morning discussing the Fed and markets.
Economic numbers looking REALLY good. Can you imagine if I had long term ZERO interest rates to play with like the past administration, rather than the rapidly raised normalized rates we have today. That would have been SO EASY! Still, markets up BIG since 2016 Election!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2019
See how obvious he is in attempting to jimmy stocks higher? The only reason why stocks are going higher is because of price momentum. Want to know when to sell? That’s simple — all the time, but you should be buying too.
Want to know when to flip to short?
Easy answer: when prices start heading lower again or at the sign of first long black candle.
Hard answer: anticipate where stocks might exhaust themselves.
It’s never easy to anticipate where a rally might end, because trends are made to be broken. In this tape, I think you’re better off going with price momentum and responding to the prevailing trend, instead of opposing it.
Will the US-China come to a trade deal conclusion?
Yes, but it will likely be superficial. Why would Xi offer major concessions to Trump, who might very well be a one term President?
Watch oil, oil stocks, IWM, HYG, SRLN. Book profits all the time. Take measure of what stocks are working now — because those will be the go-to names to buy during future dips.
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Buying third set of shorts. Tvix,tza,faz. Fully loaded. Ready for retest of lowes.
just wait
Ray Dalio’s take on China (recently posted on ZH) is a quick, but worthwhile, read …as is “progressive” warmonger Fareed Zakaria’s interview on Sunday with China expert Michael Pillsbury. The takeaway from both of these is that each side may be more intransigent than thought …although I don’t know how much Trump’s views will matter in the end.
China wants taiwan to advance their tech. That is the big fight now.
Normalized rates? We are far from normalized and we will never get there because WS goes full panic at the thought of turning off the spigot. What’s normal about any of this? Happy trading.
Good advice Fly. There are no set ups in a plunge, and reverses are quick.
kind of up-down to sideway for now… after up for 3 days in a row.
sold crap at open, bought back aapl, sq,wdc, soxl, baba on pull back. portfolio up8, down4 and now up 4%.
QQQ up, SOXL down strange., holding down my WDC.