iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,111 Blog Posts

BEHOLD: THE FAGBOX APPROACHES

By my vantage point, we have 200 points of upside left in the Nasdaq. Ergo, I bought some FNGU — to greatly participate in the FANG rally. I do believe it is the highest probability trade now, given the circumstances.

I have lots of red flags shooting up — all to do with running into FAG boxes and overhead resistance. Truth is, those charts mean nothing. All that matters is direction and right now, it’s up.

My oil and gas oscillator has blow out to the upside, indicative of an oil market overheated. So what? It can still trade up. Animals spirits, short squeezes, etc.

XLE has room to grow.

Small caps has room before entering high volume resistance.

FANG is about to break out.

It’s easy to default to bearish, given the recent history. However, it would be a mistake to not follow price direction now. While I believe we have 1-3% more upside in the immediate term, we can, in theory, run higher by 10%, fooling everyone. The only way you can profit from such a move is to remain on top of the direction, being sensitive to change, and also booking profits along the way.

I sold SIVB today for a 4% gain. My FNGU position is a 5% weighting and my cash position is now 45%.

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13 comments

  1. it is showtime

    So we got the Apple Swan (pause)
    the Black one is on the horizon

    I lie in wait for the next —————– “oops”

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  2. irma vep

    It’s slippery outside.

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  3. chumpdaddy

    The increase in volume and the number and size of the up days on the FANG chart indicates an increased possibility of a breakout of the down channel, but it isn’t a strong possibility. One has to be using other indicators.

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  4. numbersgame

    I have doubts that techinical charting works on 2x or 3x funds. Any breakout would be a coincidence.

    The reasons breakouts “work” on single stock and well-traded ETF (SPY, QQQ) is because those resistance points are where many people buy or sold a stock, Many want to get back to 0, or to avoid losing a profit so you have larger trade volumes right before these points, hence it takes longer to pass them. If you bought a stock at $90 and it’s at $80, you are much more liekly to sell as it moves back toawards $90. Similarly, if it is at $90 and you bought it at $80, you are much more liekly to sell it before it reaches $80 again. In the case when it goes form 80 to 90 then to 70, the 80 level becomes even more significant in your mind.

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  5. numbersgame

    Millenials, youu’ll get a kick out of this article:
    “People who saved for retirement are being punished by Social Security taxes ”
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/people-who-saved-for-retirement-are-being-punished-by-social-security-taxes-2019-01-07?mod=MW_story_top_stories

    The kicker is at the end: “That almost certainly means those of us who are still working will pay in one way or another. We could fix the problem virtually overnight by raising the Social Security tax rate by 1.415% to 7.615% and increasing the Medicare tax rate by 0.32% to 1.77%…Few of us are excited about paying more taxes, but shoving the burden onto retired people who’ve already paid their dues simply isn’t right. Making the system more fair could benefit all of us, now and in the future.”

    I love how the Liz Weston (the author) uses “us”. No surprise that the author is a Boomer. One look at the national debt and the 25-year interest rate timeline show just how retirees “paid their dues.”

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    • frog

      So what’s your solution then? That will be fair to every generation, not slanted toward whatever generation you are in?
      And not slanted toward whatever social class you are in.

      And what are you assuming was the effect of the 25-year interest rate timeline on baby boomers? How does it prove to you that they “didn’t pay their dues?” Are you referring to the effect of interest rates on home mortgages? Or assuming that most Americans of some generation have significant savings in the bank to collect a lot of interest on? Which is not the case.

      The Devil is in the details here.

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      • moosh

        If we did this type of insanity could we somehow apply it to all of the people who are here and coming into the U.S. illegally, for starters? Just shooting shit off the top of head

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        • numbersgame

          If you mean, can we apply the SS/payroll tax to everyone who will be receiving SS, then it’s already done, although I’m not surprised even a littl bit that you didn’t already know that.

          Also, just as your parents sought the best opportuniy for their kids, people come and stay in the US illegally for better oppotunities for their own kids. In many case, this means wokring jobs at below-minimum wage levels. So if you really want to stem the flow of these workers, the most effective approach is to reduce demand: heavily fine employers that hire illegal workers. Of course, this isn’t going to be enforced because it goes against Democrats’ liberal base as well as the Republicans’ corporate ones.

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      • numbersgame

        Yes, I’m referring the the inflationary aspect of falling interest rates, particularly on assets such as real estate. I’m also referring to the way that past governemen have used enormous increases in debt to pay for current benefits, the latest Republican tax cut being the obvious example.

        In terms of SS, you must first define what is fair:
        If the govt’ says you put in $10 and I’ll give you $13, and then changes it to $10, then that may not be fair. However, the hole is already dug. If Baby Boomers want their $13, then their grandkids will get $8. That is what Baby Boomers are proposing. People are living longer, which is the problem that SS was never designed to take into account.

        The next step to fixing social security is to decide its purpose: is it (A) an welfare program or (B) a pension plan. If it is a welfare program, then benefits to wealthier retirees must first be cut so that they are taking less than they put in. If you view it as a pension plan, then benefits for EVERYBODY must be cut so that they receive less than they put it in (because past retirees have already colelcted to much, putting the program into it’s curretn position). Option B may also involve a **small** raise in the rate, but to expect future genreations to bear all the burden for the baby boomer’s carelessness is outrageous.

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  6. frog

    Speaking of the Devil, where are you, Devil? You are missed in the comments section here.

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  7. numbersgame

    Look like FNGU will pay off well today. It was a bold choice.

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