RARE DOUBLE UPGRADE ALERT FROM GOLDMAN: BUY TRASH

Because they believe the economy is about to roll over and into the shitter, they double upgraded WM today.

Via CNBC:

Garbage stocks may be the key to success in a sluggish economy, and Waste Management “should be a core holding in every portfolio,” according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm on Monday raised its rating on the trash giant two notches to outperform from underperform, a rare “double upgrade.”

“Given the age of the current business cycle and expectations for slowing economic growth, we believe now is the right time to own waste stocks,” analyst Brian Maguire wrote to clients. “The waste sector not only compounds earnings growth at a higher rate than the overall market, but it does so with much less volatility and draw-downs in its earnings.”

The $40 billion garbage and recycling company’s stock has outperformed the broader market this year and proved to be a reliable bet amid growing volatility. Shares are up 7.8 percent since January and have remained above their 200-day moving average — often considered a barometer of whether securities are in a healthy long-term trend — for the vast majority of the year.

The waste industry, courtesy of Exodus.

The 10yr is plunging in yield today to 2.96%, and got as low as 2.937%. For the first time since 2007, the 3 and 5 yr yields inverted; but the important yield spread to watch are the 2s and 10s.

One section of the U.S. Treasuries yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade. This could be the first signal that the market is putting the Fed on notice that the end of its tightening cycle is approaching https://t.co/ABSSWJXqYz pic.twitter.com/Qi44iDFV6K

— Bloomberg (@business) December 3, 2018

Presently, the spread on the 2s and 10s are just 14bps.

Do you think this too is FAKE NEWS and should be ignored, instead casting aspersions on bears as idiots without any semblance of joy? DO SO AT YOUR OWN PERIL.

Yield curve inversions are incredibly predictive of economic activity.

And now this headline about Apple.

I’m trying very hard not to go down the rabbit hole of bearishness. I understand its persuasiveness within me and know it has served me poorly in the past. However, it also saved me from losing money in 2008. As a point in fact, I made 100% in 2008, during a time when the world burned. So what are we to do during this period of transition?

If you were my good friends or family, I’d strongly advise doing very little. Hold lots of cash and if you have to be invested, try to find a hedge — perhaps position in defensive names until we have clarity. One thing is for certain, if yield curves invert and we really do barrel into recession, you’ll rue the day you didn’t act upon this post and protect your accounts. We’ll be substantially lower from current levels.

Cash is king.

Inside Exodus, I built a tool to front run two bit money managers, by fucking with their Sharpe game. Yes, they brandish their Sharpe like it was an AK-47 and they shouldn’t be able to get away with it anymore.

Tech has been widely discarded the past two months, in favor of defensive sectors. I can dismiss this as foolish fuckery — but I won’t. Perhaps the market is trying to tell us something — such as “growth is slowing.”

Here I find the stocks with weak annual Sharpe scores, but strong weekly. These could possibly be tomorrow’s leaders. Don’t like it? Go fuck yourself.

My trading account is 80% cash and I am eager to buy another dip. By the way futures are tuning up tonight, I might find such an occasion in the immediate term.

I was busy this afternoon and only had the opportune to make 33 trades — booked a 12% gain in SOXL and positioned into a FUCKING weed stock that is bound to plunder me.

Position sizes make the difference between chill and frantic. If the chop makes you sick and you get nervous whilst reading news flow — you’re doing it wrong. The chances of you getting rich by trading or via “the next Apple” is infinitesimal.

If you’re looking for a guru to help turn $12k into $12 million in a year — you’re barking up the wrong tree. However, if you want to know how to grow and build wealth over a lifetime, stay tuned for details — FUCKERS.

News is crossing the wires that MO might bid for CRON. Out of all the pot companies, I’m surprised they’d go for that one. This, coming off news that NBEV would be acquired, makes two pot deals in a day. The best one of them all, in my opinion, is TLRY — so I stepped in and bought some.

The MO for CRON news.

Source: CNBC

Marlboro cigarette maker Altria is in early talks to acquire Canadian cannabis producer Cronos, as it seeks to diversify its business beyond traditional smokers, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.

Cronos has not agreed to any deal and there is no certainty it will do so, the sources said. The discussions between Cronos and Altria are expected to last for several weeks, one of the sources added.

The sources asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. Altria did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while Cronos declined to comment.

Other than that, markets look like shit. The fade is a worst case scenario and if I was advising friends and family, I’d suggest doing nothing until the direction is clear.

I launched my 2019 Quantitative methodology today, which draws from two pools of stocks — one growth at a reasonable price and another defensive, slower growth ideas. Today, I drew 50/50 from both pools. I look forward to working and improving on this relatively passive method of investing all throughout 2019 — hopefully with some input.

I sold my SOXL position above $116, not so much because of the morning fade or because I was up ~12% — but because it’s a god damned triple upside ETF and I’d be stupid not to. I have ~85% in cash now and, to be honest, am in no rush to allocate now.

For Exodus members, please visit the blog section for new Quant rules.

Eat a bag of dicks, fuckers. Look at that.

We’re going to gloss over the fact that I’m 80% cash in my trading account and instead marvel at my pivot away from TVIX and into SOXL on Friday. We’re also going to keenly focus on my Quant account, which represents 75% of my money and will have made more than 3% the past month.

A new stratagem will be implemented today, one that is mindful of downside hazards and positions my person for extreme success.

Now is the time to congratulate me. Do not bother doing so later on, for I will not accept it.

If you’re bullish, you want to see buying with vigor. If we open +450, you want to see a slow boil throughout the day, culminating with a higher open — the very highest of the day. You do not want to see bond yields rally too much, or oil give back its gains. I saw Qatar is removing itself from OPEC, almost immediately, which is a fuckery beyond fuckeries, that will be buried in today’s headline orgy.

Best case scenario, semis lead the way higher on aggressive as fuck volume, poleaxing bears left and right. You want several give and takes throughout the session, in order to lure more bearish fuckheads into the trap, only to later on bury them under a barrage of buy orders.

If you’re bearish, the opening tick will be the highest. From 9:30am on selling will commence, with both vigor and tenacity. Oil will collapse in price and semis will be the first to head lower. This will lead to a 3:30 rout from which lives will be staked on — men trampolining out from windows to spare themselves the indignity of yet another margin liquidation. Trump’s China news will be negated and discarded as a piece of meaningless trash and the focus will quickly shift to slowing growth.

If the narrative shifts to slowing growth, this is a much harder jar of pickles to open.

If I had to bet, I’d bet on Santa. There’s been too much toil and tumult for the young holiday season. After all, the economy is still pretty damned good and Americans are still dumb AF, stupid enough to spend all of their money at the mall this Xmas season.

First I’d like to say perma-bulls need to take a step back and fucking relax. You’ve been drubbed to the tune of 30% the past month, holding onto dear life — like a god damned idiot. YOU DO NOT GET TO CELEBRATE TONIGHT.

I repeat: PERMANENT BULLS DO NOT GET TO CELEBRATE TONIGHT.

Who gets to celebrate?

Men like men and exactly like me.

I sold TVIX on Friday, after recognizing a change in the tape and because I had no interest in incurring the risk of a Trump deal. After all, the guy lives and dies off his ability to do deals. I’d have to be a complete jackass to not take a long position — AND I DID. So, therefore, and ergo, shut the fuck up. My SOXL gains are going to be so extreme — they’ll blot out the sun.

Should we sell tomorrow?

Probably not — but you can’t tell until you see how we trade. If we trade up and then fade into the bell, maybe. If we reverse the gains into losses, most definitely. But if we hold the gains and even build upon them, you should probably buy more.

At any rate, Dow futures are up more than 400, Nasdaq +124.

Congrats.

After last month’s drubbing, the quant performed admirably in November, gaining ~2.8% vs a gain of 0.8% for the SPY.

How?

Here are the positions.

These gains haven’t been locked in yet, but will be after I sell and restructure on Monday.

The whole concept of the quant is to establish a mechanized process using well thought out disciplines. Whether you re-assess every month or quarter is up to you. But, what I can tell you, without equivocation, is that investing in this manner has changed my life.

I set up filtration systems, scouring for only the very best companies and using technical indicators to position timely. I’ll have the full year results after December and will be re-booting it to make, what I deem to be, well though out improvements.