iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,705 Blog Posts

THE ERA OF THE BEAR HAS ENDED; BEHOLD A NEW ERA OF PEACE AND ELEGANCE

My brief encounter with VIX related products has ended, once again in a loss. I sold TVIX for a 5.5% loss. I was having bouts of PTSD watching it, as it behaved terribly as all VIX products do. For the love of Christ, can Mueller investigate Direxion and lock them up once and for all?

I bought SOXL, RP, and SPLK — but still hold 80% cash. No sense diving back in now, headlong, ahead of what could equate to a declaration of war on China.

Let’s see how it plays out. If we gap up hugely on Monday, I’ll be happy. If we collapse, I’ll still be happy.

Price action is bullish and so am I. For now.

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38 comments

  1. irma vep

    Wish I was in your position. Loss and all. I’m all in and hiring has slowed. I need a job so I can build a cache of powder. I walked away from two jobs that I started b/c of the drug test. I didn’t feel like explaining that I’m self-sufficient and can, therefore, cut out the middleman and get my own ambien. What happened to freedom and liberty? It’s all cool now and I’m following the law.

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  2. soupbone

    China and US deal is foreseen. Trump has moved on to Russia, judging by the body language at G20. Leave the hardest for last.

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  3. numbersgame

    The expected news is that Trump will announce success on Monday, because that is what Trump alwasy does. However, this deserves some deeper insight when it comes to the stock market:

    1) Trump’s announcements are superficial, and often contradictory to reality. Cases in poins: Iran STILL is allowed by the US to sell oil freely, whil no longer bound by the nuclear aggreeemnt and more supported by the world, lose-lose-lose for US. Also, we stopped joint military exercies with SK, but NK is still building wepaons and still has not even furnised the basest of details – current inventory of weapons – necessary to start a real negotiation: lose-lose for US.

    2) Expected, as in **already priced in**. So the market will only be bouyed by **better than expected news***. Navarro and Lighthizer are both hard-core anti-China practices, so the bullish case (ie, baked-in news) is that no *new* tariffs are enacted and the current ones remain in place, as this is what Trump has been saying he might do.. It is HIGHLY unlikely that current tarifss will be dropped, and in fact more likely that the new tariffs announced will go forward.

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    • soupbone

      tarifss alwasy poins agreeement whil furnised wepaons exercies.

      threw together some of the words you have used above…its Friday…

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    • ferd

      “Iran STILL is allowed by the US to sell oil freely, whil no longer bound by the nuclear aggreeemnt and more supported by the world, lose-lose-lose for US.”

      Absofuckinglutely ..except they can’t quite sell it “freely” they have to beg an indulgence from massa. Surely that won’t eventually blow back on us, will it?

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      • tha pirate

        I repeat the question ferd, are you working for the Iranian propaganda machine? The ‘agreement’ as you and #’s call it was a LIE – it was NOT a treaty (ratified by the U.S. Senate), simply a ‘pen & a phone trick’ by the lovely Obama so that he could deliver to the Mullahs $$$ BILLIONS in relief in CASH on wooden pallets. In addition they had teetered on the edge of revolution by the oppressed people they are standing on the neck of when this relief for them was insanely delivered.

        Trump is handling things as BEST HE CAN despite the sh*tstorm that his predecessor handed him. I, for one, am not crying about lower oil prices and paying less at the pump!

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  4. Lyndon Keltner

    @numbers Here’s my take on whether it’s a mistake to spend a finite amount of resources (mostly) on the suburbs instead of the rural areas. Suburbs do have the white populations that are better educated *and* less racist (i.e., much “swingy-er” and less loyal to the GOP). Most suburbs are also increasingly diverse. The suburb districts voted almost entirely against Trump/the GOP (a la the epicenters of the “blue wave”) in the House elections earlier this month. Case in point: The remaining Republican Congressman from one of the five Atlanta metro Cong. districts won by only 419 votees out of more than 280,000 votes. He will quite likely be a goner as well in 2020. Those trends will only become more salient in the subsequent elections.

    I grew up in the South and I get the South. To way too many of the rural voters that you believe can be persuaded, their whiteness is one of the very few things that make them feel good about themselves. And, frankly, Obama showed that he didn’t need their votes to win. (White voters overall voted 57% for Romney versus 37% for him in 2012.) In fact, the only other president who lost the white vote TWICE is Ulysses Grant, who won both elections with the help of the former slaves who could vote during the Reconstruction era.

    It’s all nice and good that there are the so-called “moderates” that represent the rural places (i.e., really, SHITHOLES) like Joe Manchin and Jon Tester around. I actually find them likable. But then the focus and effort shouldn’t go much further than finding candidates that are like them, who have the ability to win in those places.

    My view is that there isn’t much to improve/re-caliber on the rhetoric front (on both identity politics and substantive policy issues), which brings us to this last point: Dems do better in the South with black candidates (e.g., Gillum, Abrams, even Epsy). Abrams and Jason Carter (in the previous election) both received about 25% of the white votes. In other words, that 25% *is* the equilibrium and there isn’t much (if any) that we can do to make that go higher/lower without affecting the rest of the electorate. However, Abrams did *TURN THE FUCK OUT* of the nonwhite votes and almost beat Kemp despite his galore of voter suppression schemes.

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    • numbersgame

      You have to separate state-wide race (governors and Senators) strategy from local ones (House of Representaive, state legislature). For state-wide votes, letting demographics continue to erode the Republican base and getting out the traditional Democratic vote is fine (Abrams, Gillum, Epsy – and Beto).

      For local, rural areas, there is little reason that the 2nd place candidate should lose by 30+ points to a Republican. I agree that the Dem party shouldn’t be spending a lot of cash in these area, but why can’t an Independant who is socially conservative and economically more for the wokring class (ie, pro-union, pro-subsidieze healthcare, anti-capital gains tax cuts) run and win?

      For example, I understand why Trump voters want anti-abortion judges, but aren’t there any anti-abortion judges that would also rule against Citizens United and other corporate decisisons?

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        To your first question, the polarization phenomenon isn’t new; it has been an on-going problem/side-effect of gerrymandering and Southern take-over of the GOP over the last decades. I do think having moderate candidates (on issues like abortion and civil rights, as long as they indeed take the “middle way” as Ike used to call it) in the most religious places isn’t a bad idea.

        Re: the judicial appointments, Trump gets his choices pre-vetted by the Federal Society. There is no guessing what their positions are. You don’t get surprises like John Paul Stevens and David Souter anymore.

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        • MSGT HARTMAN

          WHEN YOU WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING, TRUMP WILL BE YOUR PRESIDENT.

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            As I have been saying all along, I strongly approve his ability to help elect a diverse group of public officials into the highest offices of the government.

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  5. Black Swan

    I thought I’d drop in here below the fold to tell u how much I enjoyed that headline, … “peace and elegance”. U clearly haven’t been down here lately. There are people looking for work Fly and there is speak of drugs.

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  6. cancel19

    OT Who’s the fag portraying Liberace in that pic? Didn’t know there’s a Liberace movie out there.

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  7. biggranddaddy

    Yinn or yang… lol
    I bought( 3x China bull )fund a few days now
    Yinn is performing and I am gambling on Monday pop! And I’m out

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    • chuck bennett

      Black woman are responsible for Gilluim losing to Desantis. Why? Because they didn’t stick to the script

      20 percent of black women didn’t buy what that talented huckster was selling.

      As a posed to the men who vote along the normal black script of 90-95 percent Dem.

      Interesting stuff. Black women are smarter than their men some might say. Maybe because they’re the bread winners most of the time?

      I don’t know, I haven’t bang one in 12 years. Feeling out of touch.

      Regards

      Chuck Bennett

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      • numbersgame

        “20 percent of black women didn’t buy what that talented huckster was selling.”

        Or perhaps they *believed* what he said but didn’t like it.

        “One possibility for Gillum’s slightly lower performance among black voters? His opposition to shifting public money to pay for low income students to attend private schools and his criticism of charter school funding.”
        -https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/16/some-florida-democrats-wonder-would-andrew-gillum-have-won-if-he-were-white/

        As for being bread winners, black men are incarcerated for crimes that others (women and white men) often aren’t such as drug possession. It’s hard for ex-cons to find a job.

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        • chuck bennett

          Numbers ,

          Black men don’t grow up with fathers at a higher rate than the rest of us. Men who grow up with out a father have a higher propensity to go to jail than others.

          Lots of factor At work with who gets arrested , why and how they get arrested..

          Small Example , do you know what Asians are arrested for, at much higher levels than others?

          Illegal Gambling … is it racist? No, it’s a fact.

          There is no conspiracy here. Move on to something better my friend.

          Regards

          Chuck Bennett

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        • ferd

          Sadly, you devolved into PC BS with this one.

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          • chuck bennett

            I didn’t even go into IQ and other more interesting topics. Lol

            Regards

            Chuck Bennett

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          • heckler

            Chinese are greasy sunglass and bird flu mask wearing trickster gambler cheats, celebrating with dog meats – just the facts

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  8. soupbone

    too heavy for me

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  9. C. Montgomery Burns
    C. Montgomery Burns

    Here’s a place of elegance, here we shower ourselves in lightness.

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  10. MSGT HARTMAN

    We’re going +37% from here, an average of the increases from mid-term elections over the years.

    If you’re not 100% in the market you’re an idiot.

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  11. heckler

    What if you’re 80% cash – after just getting VIX bitch titty slapped and betting on global recession for the 3rd time in two years? Fly’s ark is full of safety fags and about to plunge into the depths of davy jones’s locker.

    Also, what in the actual fuck is going on on the blog today?? The only comments I could remotely understand are the ones by the gold girl who seems to be addicted to very kool and very legal drugs and who needs money and odd jobs. That one and the one from squirrel about that gay Liberace fuck face

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    • moosh

      Lol, it’s political gibberish. And oh boy do the gibberers like to gibb.
      Any new plays on the mj front?

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      • heckler

        If trends hold this is a great time to put money into Canada weed like ACB and CGC. Look at NEPT I really want a taste of that wellness too. Also I think CVSI could run the gamut soon.
        I just doubled down after a brutal slide it’s a farm bill and CBD cures america and republicans are okay with it play…. I’m a gamblin’ man, always have been, always will be….

        Speaking of my friends are already calling me out on Dead and Co next summer looks like there are putting together a tour. I have mixed feelings about last year’s shows but even so those were probably the best shows I saw.

        Finally -remember when Fly said all solar goes down in Nov historically? Not this year. I really think this could be the start of a huge leg higher.

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        • moosh

          Yeah, I ended up not being able to make the dead and co show I had planned. Friends said it was okay, but it was brutally hot and humid. Picked up some ACB & XXII the other day. Want some CVSI too, and will check out NEPT…thanks homie. What up with SWI?

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          • heckler

            I’m also interested in this RGSE

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          • heckler

            The problem with Dead and Co is they only play high speed face ripping (face stealing?) blast jams, oh and also John Mayer is kinda a fag. He has the blues stuff down though. I need some soft folksy fairy tail jerry jams to really round out the show for me. Still though like I said it was the best music I saw last year. You should probably hit them up this year hot or not

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