iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,460 Blog Posts

SURPRISE: Two Weeks into January and Oil is Ripping Tits to the Upside

Sometimes I wonder why most of you don’t drown yourselves inside storm drains. We’ve been doing this shit together for more than a decade. You’ve seen me talk about seasonality so much over the years, it must be ingrained into your thick skulls. Alas, here we are again, two weeks into the new year, and the lot of you are just catching onto the rally in crude.

Here, I’ll remind you again of the seasonality in crude. Take a look at the chart. It has pretty colors.

Airlines are also ripping higher, likely the of a very wealthy America combined with a weakening dollar.

Auto parts stores, investment banks, drug stores, and residential construction all higher, all doing quite well — indicative of an economy in a sweet spot. As batshit crazy as Trump is, the markets love it.

Because rates are spiking, REITs and utilities have been dreary losers. Any reasonably diversified portfolio has yielded +4% thus far. If you’re portfolios haven’t done at least that, you should be making adjustments now.

My GARP portfolio is +5.5% and Quant +4.5%. My discretionary portfolio is up too much for me to discuss here in this forum. You wouldn’t believe me if I told you.

Heading out into the warmer climes, I expect oil stocks to increase their gains. I am targeting leveraged names, around 2-5x debt/eq — thinking market appreciation will save these companies from destruction. If you’re not playing heavily burdened oil stocks, you’re simply not a serious man and should relegate yourself to the golf course and not buying and selling equities for profit.

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9 comments

  1. moosh

    I am up to my neck in $WLL and loving it. What play do you advise in my drowning, kind sir?

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    • Dr. Fly

      SN, FTK, SND

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      • moosh

        Very nice picks, indeud. Interested in the sands companies. They should be rocking?. Thanks!

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        • sarcrilege

          you may also consider that while russia, china and iran are hoarding phyzz gold, jp morgan is hoarding phyzz silver and may have cornered the silver market. furthermore, according to antal fekette, china sports the larges phyzz silver hoard. on the other hand, butler is a one pony flake but his numbers always checked out. seldom his hypotheses and conclusions though.
          https://tinyurl.com/ya3tcb5y

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      • thinair

        Ftk and sn are and have been some of the worst stocks you can buy. I’ve already made a killing in better names like fang, xop, wll, Slca and the MLPs. And majority of the rally in oils has already taken its course. Fly you are a true bottom feeder. Why not go ahead and buy chk too sdrl too.

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        • Dr. Fly

          You seem to believe I care about your opinions.

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          • thinair

            No ones giving opinions, these are simple facts. Oils been ripping to upside for weeks now and these pigs haven’t even moved.

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  2. acehood

    333%?

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