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Yearly Archives: 2016

Evil $MSFT Posts a Solid, Albeit Boring, Quarter

Holy shit I couldn’t care less about this piece of shit company. Why can’t this company go private, like DELL, are leave us alone with their stupid fucking earnings announcements?

Here, for those of you booze hounds still interested in Microsoft, Bill Gates fanboys, are the results for the quarter than past.

  • Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $0.69 per share, $0.11 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.58; non-GAAP revenues rose 2.1% year/year to $22.64 bln vs the $22.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • The current quarter effective tax rate reflected a favorable mix of our income between the U.S. and foreign countries, as well as benefits associated with distributions from foreign affiliates. As such, the non-GAAP tax rate was 15%.
  • Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes grew 5% (up 8% in constant currency) to $7.0 bln vs. $6.5-6.7 bln guidance:
    • Office commercial products and cloud services revenue grew 5% (up 9% in constant currency) driven by Office 365 commercial revenue growth of 54% (up 59% in constant currency)
    • Office consumer products and cloud services revenue grew 19% (up 18% in constant currency) with Office 365 consumer subscribers increasing to 23.1 mln ·
    • Dynamics products and cloud services revenue grew 6% (up 7% in constant currency) with Dynamics CRM Online paid seats growing more than 2.5x year-over-year
  • Revenue in Intelligent Cloud grew 7% (up 10% in constant currency) to $6.7 bln vs. $6.5-6.7 bln guidance:
    • Server products and cloud services revenue increased 5% (up 8% in constant currency) driven by double-digit annuity revenue growth
    • Azure revenue grew 102% (up 108% in constant currency) with Azure compute usage more than doubling year-over-year
    • Enterprise Mobility customers nearly doubled year-over-year to over 33,000, and the installed base grew nearly 2.5x year-over-year
  • Revenue in More Personal Computing declined 4% (down 2% in constant currency) to $8.9 bln vs. $8.7-9.0 bln guidance:
  • Windows OEM non-Pro revenue grew 27% (up 27% in constant currency), outpacing the consumer PC market, and Windows OEM Pro revenue grew 2% (up 2% in constant currency)
  • Surface revenue increased 9% (up 9% in constant currency) driven by Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book
  • Phone revenue declined 71% (down 70% in constant currency)
  • Xbox Live monthly active users grew 33% year-over-year to 49 mln
  • Search advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs grew 16% (up 17% in constant currency) with continued benefit from Windows 10 usage.
  • Microsoft returned $6.4 bln to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends.

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MALAISE

Vix closed at a new low today, now hanging out like a moron in the 12’s. The promoted narrative on Wall Street is better than expected earnings, led by banks. Meanwhile, Goldman posted better than expected numbers, but the stock traded down today. All the while the world burns, markets saddle record highs. It’s almost as if the people on the NYSE were immune to geopolitical events, solely focused  and reliant upon central bank schemes.

vix

Since BREXIT, every single risk on asset, minus crude, has cooperated. Like a well tuned Stradivarius, the puppet masters have jimmy-rigged prices towards record levels, in the face of mounting concerns. The proverbial ‘wall of worry’ is in fact very real. Having said that, I am betting against this tape via EDZ, 3x ‘Fuck China’ ETF, courtesy of Exodus. I will hold it until Friday or whenever it’s +5% from my basis.

Bottom line: there is a very dangerous and toxic blend of complacency and bad news taking place now. Historically speaking, betting against MOAR, when the VIX was sucking the 12 handle, has more often than not led to solid downside gains.

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KING DOLLARS REIGN SUPREME; AMERICAN GREATNESS HITS MARCH HIGHS

All other currencies bend the knee when King Dollars walks through the thoroughfare. I think it’s fair to say the dollar weakness, that so many of you FUCKING IDIOTS claimed was upon us, has been revoked.

Thanks to a recent surge in American economic confidence, people are coming around to the idea that the Fed will hike rates again. Also, and most importantly, all other currencies are complete and utter shit. As such, safe havens are all the rage.

uup

Personally, I prefer the ark, via TLT.

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Religion of Peace Update: Man Stabs Mother and 3 Daughters for Wearing Shorts in France

Naturally, the prosecutor is denying the motive behind the attack and the local Mayor didn’t care to speculate as to the rationale behind the Morrocan born man’s actions to stab 3 children and their mother for being ‘scantily dressed.’

Raphaël Balland, prosecutor of Gap, said: “I wanted to quash the rumour currently doing the rounds because on no account did this man make such comments about the fact that the attack may have been motivated by the victims’ dress code.”

The attacker, named as Mohamed B, 37, “may have acted out of religious motives”, French television channel TF1 reported.

Despite the prosecutor’s denial, TF1 reported that he was angry that the girls were wearing shorts.

The mother had helped the attacker when he became ill the previous day, TF1 said.

Repaying the Mother for her kindness, the savage stabbed her 8 year old daugher in the lung, in addition to severely wounding her 12 and 14 year old daughters with knife wounds. When it came time for the Mother’s stabbing, he opted for her chest.

Dated 2012:

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Thoughts on Melania Trump’s Plagiarized Speech

I wasn’t going to get into this, feeding into a non-topic like the bedraggled microbes on Twitter. But for the sake of having a word and understanding what life is like for bedraggled microbes, I’ll offer my two cents.

melania

1st cent: There is no way, whatsoever, Melania wrote her own speech. The speech was too important to be left to someone who barely speaks english, let alone someone who isn’t a professional speech writer. If we establish the fact this speech wasn’t written by her, then we are led to some interesting plot lines.

2nd cent: Having established cent one as Melania’s main contribution to the speech was looking good in front of a bunch of craven republicans and trying to not sound like Borat, we can only assume her speech writer was purposely trying to make her look bad. He or she knew the media would immediately pounce on this and compare it to Michelle’s speech, no? I mean, come on. So, to me, the bigger story is that there are untrustworthy people working inside of the Trump team. The fact that they said no one would be fired after this gaffe is somewhat predictable for ordinary politicians, always trying to save face. But for Trump, a man who fashions himself as a person who gives zero fucks and tells it like it is, he should be publicly humiliating someone today with a rapid firing and public shaming.

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Uptick in Steel Imports Causes Rout in Steel Sector

I guess investors didn’t like STLD’s quarter.

Their cap utilization came in at 95%, awfully healthy. Pricing improved. Non-residential demand was steady. But the overall picture painted by Steel Dynamics was cautious, suggesting 2016 would be weak, spearheaded by pervasive weakness in the energy and agriculture sectors. Import levels are down 25% year to date, but they’re seeing an uptick, as prices rise. Nevertheless, they do not feel U.S. markets will get flooded with cheap, disgusting, Chinese steel again.

On the news of a potential uptick in imports, this sector is undergoing severe profit taking, with losses crushing the hopes and dreams of holders in ZEUS, AKS, VALE, MT SCHN, RIO, HAYN, CMC and X.

Frankly, the losses are widepsread and without geographic considerations, which leads me to believe investors are simply looking for an excuse to take profits. Steel being one of the hottest sectors of 2016 is cooling off a bit today, off by 3% overall.

Year to date, steel prices are up 75% and iron ore upwards of 35%.

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Hedge Fund Giant, Maverick, Caught Short $ARMH with Softbank Bid

Lee Ainslie, co-founder of Maverick, has been playing a supporting role in the firm’s investments in recent years, handing over the reigns to Andrew Warford and Riad Abrahams. Those fuckers just got smoked out short ARMH in size, according to sources at Reuters.

The set-back for such hedge funds, who position themselves to profit from swings in stock prices, comes at a difficult time for the industry as many peers have seen their performance slide and some investors have even demanded their money back.

Data from Britain’s regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, shows that Maverick Capital had a substantial outstanding short position in ARM of roughly 1.2 percent of its shares when the SoftBank bid was announced on Monday.

The data shows that Maverick had a short position of 0.67 percent as of Jan. 6 and increased that to 1.2 percent on May 3.

Maverick did great last year, booking a 16% return. As far as I can see, they seem to be doing okay this year too, aside from ARMH and their long positions in VRX, AGN and ST. No worries, unlike Pershing Square, they spread their bets out.

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House of Cards Producer, Dana Brunetti, Says Short $NFLX

Wow, my first reaction to this was ‘super asshole.’But then I thought about it for a few seconds, whilst chewing on a snack, and said ‘all right.’ Fuck Netflix and the price hikes they so fervently depend on. If you recall, it was House of Cards that bailed them out in 2011, the last time they pulled this shit. Now that there isn’t another blockbuster show to bail them out, we can only hope the company ends up in a tinder box–on its way towards eventual insolvency.

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