Markets Rally For a 5th Consecutive Week; Crude Closes Under $40

There is going to be hell to pay for all of this depravity in about 4 weeks hence. I know what you’re thinking. I’ve been dealing with audiences like you since my political blogging days, dating back to 2001. Many of my peers in the finance blogging racket are losers (extra Trump). These are people who I wouldn’t trust giving a tip at dinner, let alone offer me financial advice online. I hope you can appreciate and understand what I am trying to do with iBankCoin for 2016. It’s a complicated, multi-layered, strategy, which is aimed at training you to think analytically–from news to taking down positions.

By the end of 2016, you and I both will be better traders, decoders of financial subterfuge aka ‘news’, and have bountiful gains to show for it. Hopefully, all of this extra effort I am putting forth, publishing upwards of 15 blogs per day, parsing through the muck for a benefit of the ‘reader class’, will net the intended results: low beta,high-octane returns.

Markets rallied for the 5th consecutive week. But bonds rallied too. As a point in fact, the Japanese 10yr has never been lower, which is anchoring all bonds from selling off. We have a problem deep in the crevasse. Its been buried under 5 weeks worth of shit. In due time, all of the refuse will wash away from the tears of debilitated short sellers. At such a point in time, by my gameplan in late April, markets will reverse–in earnest–offering no quarter or respite for investors scrambling to avoid loss.

Everything will burn. Everything will be destroyed. Everything will be torn from foot to crown.

Have a great weekend!

This is Orwellian doublespeak. Goldman is out with new research, trying to help reflate assets, and lying. The suggestion that a doubling of the Federal funds rate over the next 8 months as being the most dovish of this century is not only laughable, but insulting.

Words cannot describe the utter horseshit that is forthcoming.

Excluding two meetings during the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009, the shock of Wednesday’s slash to the so-called “dot plot” was only exceeded by introduction of calendar-based forward guidance in 2011, the decision to forego “Septaper” in 2013, and last March’s markdown, according to Goldman:

“Markets had little doubt that the FOMC would leave the funds rate unchanged at yesterday’s meeting—futures markets implied only about a 5 percent chance of an increase before the announcement,” wrote Pandl and Struyven. “Yet the decision was clearly a major dovish surprise for markets, with interest rates declining across the curve and the dollar falling against other developed market currencies.”

“If the central bank unexpectedly tightens monetary policy, nominal interest rates will tend to rise, but breakeven inflation and stock prices will tend to fall,” the economists write, providing a theoretical example. “We can therefore infer something about the underlying macroeconomic shocks from the correlation pattern in markets.”

“The meaningful policy surprises in recent years are a puzzle in light of the large amount of information Fed officials now provide about their reaction function,” write the economists. “One might have thought that the details provided in the summary of economic projections and through the press conference would have made it easier for investors to anticipate the committee’s response to incoming data.”

In summary, war is peace. Up is down. Higher rates is dovish. Lower crude is bearish. Higher Trump polls is fascism.

As market participants splash around the market, yields continue to collapse–because the Fed is only going to hike rates by 100% over the next 8 months.

This is risk aversion.

The S&P 500 has erased all of its early 2016 losses and now relish in the black. Crude oil has formed a bridgehead at $40, which poses as a significant annoyance to those whom are short. Fundamental concerns aren’t abated at $40 crude; but the market is bidding up oil stocks anyway.

Seeing a great divergence between reality and perception, I doubled my XLE short today, with a basis of $63.32.

Apparently, the analyst covering them is a long term bear on the sector, which is making WYNN and a few others jump higher.

We upgrade our price targets by +2% to +17% for the six Macau gaming operators. Sands China goes to Outperform (from Neutral) and Melco Crown to Neutral. We believe Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, with well established properties in Cotai, will be the biggest beneficiaries of the project delays announced so far by Wynn Macau and MGM China. Wynn Macau remains our top-short pick. It might further delay the Wynn Palace opening, which could trigger Bloomberg consensus downgrades.

A ballsy call, considering the Chinese gov’t seem to be hellbent on making life ruinous for casino operators in Macau.

The number one go to sector for risk and growth, biotech, has been ripped to shreds in 2016, down 29% and counting.

As markets have lifted in recent weeks, sending the Dow higher by 2,000 points, biotech has done nothing. As a matter of fact, this once loved sector, filled with promise, is trading near the lows for the year.

Much of the negative press is political risk. H. Clinton and D. Trump have both criticized the healthcare industry for excessive profit margins, which come at the expense of the infirmed. Also, the Valeant debacle has offered nothing but negative headline news, preventing new, stupid, investors from entering the fray for some good old fashioned speculation.

My take: this sector is doomed until after the election, or until VRX doubles from here.

According to recent filings compiled by Exodus, the once mighty biotech hedge fund, Baker Bros, is down in the order of 35 some odd percent for 2016.

Cataclysmic.

The stock traded higher yesterday after offering abysmal guidance. I believe the stock is up in the order of 30% since February, based on nothing at all.

These numbers were released this morning. Sales are bleak and getting bleaker.

Naturally, the stock is up on this wonderful news.

Happy Friday. My head is still spinning from all of the lager that I thought I should consume last night. It always seems like a great idea, drinking like a depraved degenerate, until the morning after kicks in and you need a fucking barrel of coffee to get your day started.

Crude is being chased higher again, now above $41. This is a short squeeze and it will end miserably for longs, in my opinion.

Gold hammered again.

Treasuries are edging higher too, as well as the dollar, with a moderate 0.3% gain v the euro.

Also, futures are higher. The weather is sublime. Markets are in bull mode. What could go wrong?

America is going to be great again.

No one knows who Anbang is, other than a large Chinese insurance company that wants to be Berkshire Hathaway. That’s not stopping Starwood from accepting their $78 cash offer for their company. This, of course, goes over poorly with the blokes over at Marriot, who had a competing offer.

I don’t think Marriot will sit idle as the Chinese Warren Buffett snatches up HOT. Seeing the stock above the agreed upon $78 offer, I am not the only one who believes this.

If I was being honest with myself, the title would read ‘fuck oil’– because that’s exactly how I feel. You know how some of you like H. Clinton because she dresses like Dr. Evil from the 90s comedy movie? Transplant that fervor, that unchecked foam mouthed rage to crude. That’s how I (fucking) feel. As a worldly person of your intellect and status, I demand that you respect my human rights for lower crude prices, solely based on the premise of profiteering from the dissolution of the entire industry.

I will not rest until the Bakken shale is filled with fucking dust balls, locusts attacking people in broad daylight at street lights, and McDonald employees raising up, saying ‘enough is enough of this shit’, infuriated by their $25 per hr wages and laying waste of Williston, ND because of it.

I want carnage of the first magnitude. Instead of buying into joy, I endeavor, inexorably, to buy into sheer, unmitigated, disaster.

GOOD NIGHT.

I am short oil, via XLE. The dollar swooned lower and stocks, drunk from the ambrosia provided by a bedraggled Federal Reserve, went appreciably higher. Yet, at the same time, treasuries traded higher.

Listen to me: this makes no sense.

This rally is fadeable and shortable.

There is nothing, or very few things, that can stop me from achieving my destiny, atop a mountain of bones, menacing subjugated persons of a lower cloth, whilst harrowing losses permeate and defrock everyone from the field of battle.

But today isn’t a day to make exclamatory statements, ’tis we’re all Irish and there are rivers of ale to consume, alongside corned beef, cabbage and the plainest potatoes you’ve ever seen or eaten in your entire life.

“The Fly” reigns supreme and it’s now time for me to depart to inebriate myself, singing the songs of Ireland, hoping for severe punishment to befall the Empire of Great Britain.