I am short oil, via XLE. The dollar swooned lower and stocks, drunk from the ambrosia provided by a bedraggled Federal Reserve, went appreciably higher. Yet, at the same time, treasuries traded higher.
Listen to me: this makes no sense.
This rally is fadeable and shortable.
There is nothing, or very few things, that can stop me from achieving my destiny, atop a mountain of bones, menacing subjugated persons of a lower cloth, whilst harrowing losses permeate and defrock everyone from the field of battle.
But today isn’t a day to make exclamatory statements, ’tis we’re all Irish and there are rivers of ale to consume, alongside corned beef, cabbage and the plainest potatoes you’ve ever seen or eaten in your entire life.
“The Fly” reigns supreme and it’s now time for me to depart to inebriate myself, singing the songs of Ireland, hoping for severe punishment to befall the Empire of Great Britain.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
@Dr.FLY
Are you not inclined to think oil could stage a full rebound to $42 (200dma) the way it did 10-9-2015 and 6-23-2015 before sliding back lower?
Unfortunately I entered SCO yesterday instead of waiting…
I boarded the ARK today by getting back in TLT and setting reasonably close trailing stops on all my equity longs.
44 looks doable here
Overshoot has to be in the cards. I suppose Le Fly has same strategy on shorting via Exodus signals as going long?
Agree. The only thing keeping this rally alive is negative sentiment and that oil is at $40 courtesy of a gigantic short squeeze. Admittedly, both of those things could propel the mkt higher for some time.
You’re right about bonds. If this rally was a legit “Things are better” rally then bonds yields would have spiked more than gold did yesterday. Risk off abroad is returning and with it a flight to quality – US dollars and bonds. Not to mention negative rates will provide a bid for both over the medium term. I’m hoping it happens soon as I’m short as well via April and May SPY puts that I’ve accumulated over the past week. Anticipating a violent downturn once the stars align [short squeeze in oil ends, yuan gets cheaper as USD is bid, Europe and Japan get hammered, etc].
Who knows though. People need a reminder of where we were just a couple weeks ago. That didn’t just disappear.
right short squeezes last for weeks……
u got what u been crying for with rates and now u going short
don’t ever play yaself
ps. I ain’t feelin this rally either
Disagree on – – – people – – – Anyone wanna argue it was streetcorner portly acct managers Thrusting the dow into the 2-week-old toofar toofast levels along with mompop dying-and-contracting-debt middleclass increasingly cautious of increasingly-likely turmoil individuals?
– – – computers were told what to do with the indexes today – – –
Yes, my corned beef and cabbage (with a bit of Guinness), carrots, little potatoes, onions, and celery have been slow cooking for 6 hours now and will be eating same shortly.
In a few weeks I’ll be in Manhattan for a few days and will feast on a corned beef on rye, with NYC’s finest pickles, green tomatoes, and slaw on the table as a prelude.
tc,
At the risk of starting a sandwich war, do you have a go to place for those comestibles? I may be in NYC the week after and I’ve never really been.
Most of us on the board here don’t live in NY. If no one there replies, use this:
http://www.yelp.com/nyc
I have been to Sarge’s Deli and always found the samiches to be excellent plus there were three different kinds of unlimited pickles on the table (plus slaw and green tomatoes, I think). The pastrami and corned beef on rye is huuuge. Not many tourists go there (unlike Katz, etc. which is also good) and is a local favorite.
https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g60763-d457802-Reviews-Sarge_s_Deli_Restaurant-New_York_City_New_York.html
We are visiting our daughter who lives there and she speaks highly of Pastrami Queen. I will check it out when we are there.
https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g60763-d492998-Reviews-Pastrami_Queen-New_York_City_New_York.html
still long UCO and eleven other energy names. Happy SPD!
kudos!
What if the recent downturn was what it a market downturn usually is– not a beginning of a bear market but just a correction within a bull? Quite possible. This doesn’t look like 2008 to me.
This point is being made by some; in that, the biotech sector is in the early stages of mimicking previous bubbles such as oil etc. Add to that global going negative rates…..
$XON needs one more down day for me to get long for a trade. The big dogs in the biotech sector are starting to look decent for tax time. $GILD is still sitting on a shitload of cash if I remember correctly.
Give an example of retarded linguistics
I write debate style, character style, academic style. marginalizing “MY POINTS” aint gonna cut it mr shroom, moosh shroom, you on shrooms
frog you are right…..
2008 resulted in a 56% drawdown. We haven’t sniffed that. The world economic conditions are horrible as well as corporate profits compared to 2014. Do you really think things are fairly valued? We are a hundo away from all time highes on the back of the fed who know they can’t raise rates. The S&P 500 is a game of Jega on steroids right now
Fairly valued? Do you trade based on fundamentals? Fundamentals do matter occasionally, so if you hold your short positions for years, maybe they will make money, if fundamentals do not improve while you are holding your shorts.
The Fed’s sanity finally, in not raising rates at the moment, bodes well for the market. If the U.S. keeps recovering economically, then earnings will be rising soon, so P/E’s will go down without a drop in price. The Fed would not be considering raising rates this year at all, if they didn’t expect further economic recovery to happen soon.
As for the world economy issues, most of that is about China. And China hides their problems so well, that by the time traders discover that economic conditions are horrible in china, then their market is at or near a bottom.
Samantha…how many cycle downturns have you traded through? This time is not an analog to 2008…..I would suggest you go and study the bubble of 1989 in the Japanese market… the lessons from that time period are playing out today.
-Lots- of charts mirror 2008 / started mirroring 2008 / showed similarities months ago
Overall factors? Are you kidding? Debt, corporate debt sovereign debt personal debt, Bubbles, oil housing autos rates.
rules changed when it became a CBs-dictated market/world. some of us discounted its effectiveness at first. there, in-so-far-as, is your not-feeling like 08
@thefrog
You never ever got past first grade in English class, did you/
rules changed ….. no money big money will go to where it is treated best… rules always remain the same .
neither. correction requires consolidation. these are just reloaded restored Dips. get some more precise analysis skill
I was a slob in English class. I still don’t give a fuck. I throw ; in between shit in my emails to prove it.
If you believe in the short, short uwti instead and get the short plus roll contango equals good times. Dwti short was very fun when oil dipped thirty…. Any etf rolling futures contacts every month is on my short list….
Horatio Claw Hammer.
We know you all to well.
btw- A local restaurant chain has a theme best described as Italian Chipotle. A nearby location that opened recently is failing. Nearly every higher priced restaurant in this area is doing slow business. Every new place is low end. The Italian Chipotle place is not that expensive, but I think at that market level a dollar is a big deal. The concept may not be within the scope of the customer base.
I think part of (CMG) Chipotle popularity is the chance the food can be piled on, resulting in more bulk for the money. I stopped going to one Chipotle location because I became weary of watching the customers shake down the employees for more of everything. Some were intimidating.
“more bulk for the money” – Nailed it.
Katz’s deli
Fly, thought you might be needing this gallery for the coming Trump vs. Hillary general election season.
http://www.zombietime.com/really_truly_hillary_gallery/
Oh that’s good!
She’ll definitely be pres. Being bashed 24/7/365, complete with the least flattering photos and derisive cartoons of her being constantly displayed– She gets bashed even more than the supposedly weak but arrogant fascist Anti-Christ Obama.
Trump is being bashed as much as Hillary is now. This means that each of these candidates is maximally threatening to their competitors– so each is almost certain to win their party’s nomination– unless, in the case of the GOP, they use a brokered convention or some other means to circumvent the will of their voters.
Don’t you think she looks tired?
Yes. She’s the front runner, working the hardest. Of course she’s tired. She’s going to be tired, like Obama is now, for the next 8 years.
77 DAYS. That’s how long it lasted.
The official 2016 strategy of being long TLT and only buying Exodus OVERSOLD signals is over. Allow me to welcome THE FLY back into our sweaty, rat-infested trenches, where men (no Rubio) dwell.
LOL…. too funny…7 is a hugely biblical number..the number 7 is the foundation of God’s word. … Seven is the number of completeness and perfection (both physical and spiritual).
double 7 .. the lord has spoken…ROFL
The fuck is wrong with gas prices? Rose by like 20% in a couple days. Terminals have been slow lately…hmmm
Liberalism is a mental disorder. There is no other explanation for a belief system that literally strips you of rights and threatens your security.
Arch conservatism is equally deranged.
H. Clinton is the former, while Cruz is the latter.
Trump wins, by a landslide.
Every news outlet is throwing everything they can at Trump right now: narcissism, Tourette’s Syndrome, serial liar, racist, bigot, in need of anger management, incites violence, political moron & knows nothing, a business failure, a protectionist, anti trade, anti Wall Street, a media phenomenon – ALL THE TIME! Fly- u really think he can overcome 24/7 HATE?
While you are waiting to see if Fly answers– as he is many threads forward of this one at this point– here is my opinion. This kind of 24/7 hate is what you receive when your opponents are maximally threatened. It is more an effect of powerful people feeling threatened than a cause of anyone pushing Trump away. Of course he will win the nomination, unless the GOP has a brokered convention.
But he will not win the presidency in any case. Hillary has gotten hate 24/7/365 for 2 decades straight. Trump’s short period of threatening the Powers That Be in his party can not compete with the level of threat that Hillary seems to pose to powerful Right Wing people. She is that threatening because she’s going to win.
Bexpo, many political consultants don’t know what they’re doing. They think “Negative ads work.” And they do, usually. The circumstance in which they do not work is when the person the ad is bashing has been a household name long before the ad ever bashed them– a name like Trump or Clinton, for example. In such cases, viewers of the ad feel like they already know what the person is like. So they have already formed their opinion, and the ad is not going to change that.
This fact is not obvious to advertisers. I only know it because I am trained in the fields of mental health and industrial/organizational psychology.
LIberalism is a mental disorder? I guess we should go and save the unfortunate people of Scandinavia from it, huh? Somehow they don’t seem to be aware that they have been stripped of their rights and their security. I wonder why.
Hillary Clinton is not liberal. She is to the Right of where Nixon was politically. That’s why I am for Bernie.