I’ve been saying this for month. Now it’s becoming main stream thinking. By my count, there is around $300 billion in distressed basic resource debt, encompassing all commodities, not just oil. Of that, PBR, SDRL, PAGP, SID, LINE, MTL, CRC and BTU have the most debt.
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These companies are toast, done. Since 2009, investment banks have been peddling this shit to people, as a way to replace all of the mortgage crap they made a killing on before the housing collapse, with reckless abandon. Ten percent oil and gas trusts, MLPs, limited partnerships, preferred offerings and of course your regular run of the mill bonds were all part of the ‘for sale’ items to every client at every investment bank, for more than half a decade.
We haven’t seen the fall out yet. Right now we’re just getting the shock. Later on we’ll get to see the aftermath.
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FLy, I don’t understand how you think this has been a normal un-weird 7 days, so far this year. It seems very strange to me.
Well, I don’t see much of a rally in view of this hanging over the market.
I have it on good authority that, when he dies, Art will be stuffed and put on display at the Wall Street Museum.
I LOVE ART!! He’s one of the few that tells it like it is.
That is exactly why he will be stuffed – so that future generations can benefit from him!
I been following your thoughts on this and what has got me worried is the
followup downgrade of debt that is currently in good shape. That would
be a game changer.
That is
what easymoney debtdependent settings do
Add in equity manipulation. logic says collapse just eventually. planned
even though everyone, like you, develops a concern when B always follows A
HEY GUYS!! I’m back. I did some time in jail for beating the crap out of a liberal. but its all good. I broke his hands so the motherfucker cant vote
What do you think about buying SWHC for a bounce at the open due to Obummers State Of The Union Address tonight?
I guess we don’t rally unless oil stops bleeding out.
the banks are going to get sued again, big time.
I don’t think oil contagion is going to bleed into the financial system. Because the Fed is hiking rates into this situation here.
Although the people at the Fed are not the sharpest knives in the dishwasher, and though they have made errors in their policies before and will do so again, they are not trying to destroy the world economic system. If they believed we were in danger of this kind of collapse, they would not be hiking. And they have enough inside information to likely be able to judge that.
That doesn’t mean though that the market is going to be bullish from here though. Because, as someone mentioned on, I think it was yesterday’s thread, the Fed may believe they have created a bubble and that they need to pop it, before it leads to a worse disaster.
Anyone who doesn’t believe the possibility at least that Fed could be subversive (or pandering to subversive agenda) so meager
They’ve created insane collapse conditions
TWICE in a row now. hm?
Real estate related issues, not the Fed rate policies, were responsible for the 2008 collapse. And the 2000 collapse was due to the bursting of the bubble created by the Fed’s easing, in an attempt to fend of the Y2K problem which turned out to be imaginary. In that situation, the Fed had the good intentions that the road to hell is paved with.
The Fed has no history of being subversive, only somewhat incompetent at times. And it would take being subversive for them to hike rates into a world economic collapse.
Fed stoked housing easily
although just as anyone who blames bush only for it is nuts, is more complicated than just fed stoke. machinations of this administration leaves corrupt subversive intervention/influence open imo
Fed did not force any financial institutions to make NINJA loans i.e. no-documentation loans to people with No INcome, Job or Assets. Nor did they force banks to put trash mortgages together into securities and try to sell them to retired folks as investments. The Fed may have been one of many minor contributors to the problem.
I know that corrupt subversive influences are all around us, in the view of permabear conspiracy theories. But in the real world, not so much. Not very many folks have much to gain from a world economic collapse.
SMHC was a great idea up 7K at the close. this could jump HUGE!! at the open
BTW j kidding I wasn’t in jail we moved to a place deep in the woods. I wish I could post pics you guys would love this place
Fly, US is bad with Commodity Investments going bad fast and hard. BUT what is truly Ugly is the Chinese Investment Bankers that have taken advantage of the upper and Middle Class Chinese with BOTH commodities and property investments. This was their retirement, their life. I have been in Self Flagellation mode since 2009, seeing how this all develops. Well I got my Oil at 30 and Copper under 2.00, but this is just the start of the super ugly world that these Central Bankers have created.
Oil trash
Copper trash
High yield hellish
Baltic dry hellish death
quite the smile each day for bears / deflationists
lol, True…
*whew – i own none of them
Is http://www.marinetraffic.com/ for real? I’ve been checking it off and on the last week and there’s like only a handful of ships actually doing anything, versus 1000s of ported ones… it’s crazy.