iBankCoin

But Dem Yields Doe

With the Islamic State on the move, cutting heads off along their way to Allah, western treasuries continue to gain steam. I cannot stress this enough to all of you lads, drunk about the water cooler, drinking gin from a water bottle.

There is a safety trade taking place, at the same time application software stocks rip through roofs.

This is what I am going to do.

I will collect another monthly dividend from my TLT position, then liquidate it in september. I just sold out of my ECOM position because it refuses to rally. I don’t have time for that, so I took a 3% loss. With the cash on hand, I am going to buy a basket of utility stocks–some today, others next week.

I am going to hold said basket through september, or until I am proven right or wrong (this gives me room to wiggle). The way I see it, buying utilities is a preferable way to fade this rally without actually fading it. I don’t want to just go to cash because my temperament doesn’t allow me to sit idle for long periods of time.

Longer term, I still own a crap load of stuff, from GILD to ICPT to SLCA to HAIN. If the market melts up, I will not miss it entirely. I am simply shifting my trading assets into a bomb shelter.

Stay tuned.

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16 comments

  1. BillieJones

    Why sell TLT? isn’t it a safety trade as well? Honest question.

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    • Dr. Fly

      I am going to sell in Sept. That doesn’t mean right away.

      I hope to buy the dip, if it ever materizlizes.

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      • Mark

        Long TLT for far too long but enjoying the ride. Do not wish to short but any target price that is really in stupid land to start selling? I was thinking 123/125 area.

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      • BlueStar

        Wise. TLT is due for a pullback. Long term higher. Sell signal today. Rubber band stretched.

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      • BillieJones

        Dr. Fly,

        Thanks fro the reply, but, Im not sure I understand. If you believe that we get the start of a yr 2000 style selloff in September, what is the reasoning for selling TLT (safe haven) going into a large selloff. Treasuries are the ultimate knee jerk safety trade in Selloffs aren’t they? Thanks for any clarity.

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  2. Jones

    “Longer term” $GOGO?

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  3. synackf1n

    Looking good Karim.

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  4. Jerry

    I know you’re leading toward the 2000 scenario but remember the high flyers went through a similar decline in early 1997 (see CSCO down about 40% in a few months) which rendered them dead in many eyes. Then then roared back to new highs later that year.

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  5. Trent J

    I didn’t think you’d pick today to reveal yourself via the blog picture, Fly but I like your style.. That’s a fat stack a bills and a sweet hat.

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  6. speerothekid

    great trade on that 20 yr. definitely had my doubts it’d pan out so quickly

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  7. forgetalpha

    NRG is an interesting ute with some optionality. What do you think about EXC? EIX?

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