With today’s pin action in JAZZ, CRTO and RKUS, I decided to sell the one’s that won’t earn $10 per share next year, currently trading 10x next year’s earnings. I sold out of CRTO and RKUS and ponder to myself: “when was the last time I made money?” This has been a death march for me, albeit an expeditious one. Over the past 9 weeks, I’ve managed to lose coin each and every week, but 1. I cannot recall being this wrong for so long.
With today’s sales, I bought GSK, PG and ACE.
Inside of 3 months, I’ve gone from a leveraged gorilla, tossing banana peels at my enemies to olde man being kicked down an idle manhole while in a wheeled chair. Absolutely dreadful.
All of m hard work, the goodwill built from 2008 is gone, poof, in a bat of a lash.
As for PG, it traded 23x eps in 2001, 2002 and 2003. It’s trading a touch under 22x earnings now and just 18x 2015–so there is room for expansion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2e5ZibypDk
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why ACE over TRV?
They are both good. I prefer ACE.
Kafka!
why buy these old man stocks and not wait for a really good idea to load up on?
Because it’s OVER Johnny. There will not be any opportunities.
lol ok…but you will need something with more beta to climb back out of the hole.
The hole is a permanent one. It’s a grave, actually
http://youtu.be/gLo-ylNPXyE
Just be cool. Nobody else knows what the fuck is happening in the next hour either. There are exciting opportunities. I can’t remember who exactly said, “you have to get to neutral before you can switch gears”. But that’s right. The first change I made after I lost a bit was when I did see opportunity, I bought small. And I bought because I did a lot of reading about new technologies, supply guys. I read constantly, cast my net wide. But I think you have to get to neutral. It’s psycology..
Mary Schwartz “Pit Bull”
Can’t even spell: Marty Schwartz
$JDSU
$RGR
POMO today….let’s see if the Bulls will be there to kick me. Fly you are still the amazing best, the Good Will will never be lost.
I got an impression you’re a perma bear. How do you normally short? BTW, nice swan dress.
Not really a Perma Bear, I was all Fundie/TA in 2008 when the market fell apart. In 2009 I started a study in Bubble Analysis, after I saw a potential Bubble forming with excess importing of Copper into China. Which, everyone knows here, I call the Shanghai Copper Bubble. I have been using horrible ultra ETF’s to track this anatomy of a bubble. SMN, FAZ, VIX, DRR, Gold are my holdings..I had a biotech which was my only long, but it was bought out. Dress is not mine, it’s a singer that someone said I looked like when I posted my real pic…it’s a White Swan, even though I perfer Black.
I see. I used to be a perma bear by heart, but I learned over and over the hard way that it’s the sure way to lose money. Being right doesn’t mean profit. IMO, gold bugs and bears are more knowledgeable but the odds are against them. The “system” favors bulls, period. The stock market IS the economy. Escalator up, elevator down – but how big of a drawn-down can a bear ride on the escalator before he lives to see the elevator? Nowadays I rely on blog sites like iBankCoins to brainwash me to refrain from shorting the market, to a point where I almost feel ashamed to be bearish.
Since it appears since the 1980’s we have been in one bubble formation period, and then pop after another. I had to learn first hand the anatomy of it, I thought everyone would see it and try and stop it, I was wrong. Once this bubble pops, and the next bubble starts, I will have no problem riding it up on Commodity, Global Growth names and tech..along with the Aussie, and Kiwiw for at least 3 years. I have such a hard time with Central Bank Analysis, but I think I am getting better.
I’m short puts in CRTO and willing to ride it out. Its margins may blow, but it has real revenues and enough cash on the balance sheet to give it something resembling a floor. I don’t even care what anything does in the short term anymore, there’s no high probability trades I see that are worth the risk.
PG is very expensive as are KMB K CL etc
We’ve been in a topping process for the last 3-4 months, they’ll get to the PGs eventually like always
PG IS NOT EXPENSIVE.
Read my addendum in this post.
PG has had zero growth in the last 5 yrs, why pay 18x for that let alone 22x?
It has always traded 22x
$CHD.Make $ when others are having fun.
I’ve decided not to fight it and have been in cash for weeks.
“Foward Earnings” are a broker’s sucker play, used to justify a too-high current PE ratio.Who the hell KNOWS what
next year’s earnings will be?
Proctor might get hit with some as-yet unknown class action judgment of say $5 billion.
POOOF to “forward earnings”.
Rigged
Pgs earnings do not deviate by much. Give me a fucking break already
as yet unknown class action…. I guess that could happen– anywhere.
who cares about the losses…per the photo, you’re aging quite gracefully
Why thank you jazzy Jeff
.
… he IS a handsome man !
.
Hell yes Dr. Dre wins again
Fly, your credibility is intact, your readers are loyal, you made money every year I can remember, this is just one down year. Speaking of which, how much are you currently down for the year?
I’m new here. Do you get into trouble if you spit on the floor here? I saw poop and everything here last week. Wondering if it’s ok now to bait a man who’s down.
So not nice, We wear Top Hats Here. We don’t spit on the floor.
So when do you short or buy puts like 2008?
I don’t think this is 2000.
Here’s why –
75% of serious market participants were around for 2000.
They remember it. So what will they do? Close out their positions before they become worthless. They learned this lesson once.
But that’s exactly why this isn’t 2000. The sell off thus far in high beta tech names has been sharper and more relentless than 2000. Everyone is selling pre-emptively “because it is going to get worse”.
Says who though? When has panic selling ever been a good strategy (other than 2000 and maybe 2008, but even then if you were too late you were better to hold).
The other major difference is that some of these companies getting hit in this extreme manner have real disruptive technologies and real revenue growth.
This is not 2000 and I’m betting on it. Long twitter from wednesday’s low and a basket of others. We’ll see in 6 months…
Sentiment is a funny thing…
I’m on team algo. We have cool uniforms.
Also an interesting thought re: twitter
Facebook uses it’s web real estate a lot more efficiently in terms of advertising. Ads all down the side. In fact, that seems to be their main advertising platform. Twitter on the other hand has left their side bars free of clutter. Which is nice – we all appreciate that, but why couldn’t they use that space along with targeted ads? Seems like an easy way to substantially increase revenue. In fact, on twitter the ads wouldn’t even be visible when you first load the feed, only when you scroll down. Thoughts?
The main difference is the length of time of your attention and the total quantity of information per second or whatever u of m. You stay longer on Facebook, so ads are the right vehicle. Maybe they have to think of a different means of support, not ads, not subscription, what? (something that I haven’t thought of yet either.)How would you sell a sense of inclusion? promise to never data mine the streams?
Just seems like there is a lot of untapped potential even aside from user growth which will be inevitable as tech savy youth age and the developing world becomes more connected.
nobody knows what to do. do you see how slowly the trades are going?
everybody’s sitting on their hands.
PPT! The bigger one…
Making money in this market is quite easy. Simply buy XIV and watch it go up regardless of whether the market is down or up.
until you blow up.
Not gonna blow up with the current environment. Up 1.7% right now, and should close the day up 2% easy!
Welcome to the Old Man’s Stock club. Leave your dentures at the door before you pick up your dividends. Remember you’re not officially a grumpy old man until 70.
bot AUY half
I am holding JAZZ. Anyone else?
I am still in it. That means, you’re doomed.
Happy 47 1/2 birthday, Fly! Better times ahead.
Transformative.