A TITANIC SHIFT IN THE OIL MARKETS ARE UNDERWAY

This is a very important point I am about to make to you. WTI is surging, as predicted by the July seasonality stats. It’s amazing how trends keep repeating themselves. Anyway, the WTI-Brent spread is now under $3, which places the refiners, especially mid-continent refiners, directly into the ‘fag box.’

Look at the shares of ALJ, DK, HFC, WNR, PSX and CVI, all drowning in oil. The pendulum swings the other way and when it does, it cuts hard.

The refiners could be ‘epic’ buys here, if indeed the spread is set to widen again. After all, all of the experts believe that is will. I happen to think a ‘pain trade’ is taking place here, which will inevitably result in a flush out. This is not that.

I’ve been a shareholder of the WNR for many years, on and off, all the way down to $11 per share. The stock defies logic and reason on a regular basis. I do not think $27 is a bargain for the shares. I will look to get in under $20.

On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.

Top performers in the oil space, over the past two weeks, include: HNR, EGY, XCO, ROSE, GST, HK, KEG, HERO, WLL and CLR. But the space is entirely ignored by the investment community. There is a lot of potential upside to this industry, if the price of oil continues to trend higher.

I’m hitting new highs again, yet I haven’t had a big break-through. I am waiting, ever-so-patiently. Over the previous two sessions, I was down early but came back to close in the black. I am so black right now, call me Bill Cosby.

The top picks have to remain the same, since I haven’t Mt. St. Helens yet.

IMMR, GS, O and FWM are my top holdings. Secondary positions include WETF, USG, SHLD, AMBA, SCTY, FRO and several old man stocks.

I’m doing it plebs, pushing the pedal all the way down to the ground, ignoring caution, leveraged 125% long into what I see as “an opportunity.”

If you’re the scared type, go away. You are visiting the wrong financial blogger.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YcIgow6TDk

Review site Yelp Inc. is allowing users to order food online for delivery and pickup, partnering with businesses such as Eat24 and Delivery.com.

The offering, called Yelp Platform, can be accessed on desktop computers and mobile gadgets, the San Francisco company said in a blog post Tuesday.

Yelp also said Tuesday that it will eventually roll out a scheduling program for appointments at yoga studios, salons, spas and dentist offices. To do so, it plans to pair with brands such as Booker, Demandforce and MindBody.

source: LA Times

I regret selling Yelp. This is one of those press releases that will be forgotten in a few days or weeks, then permeate greatness into the company for years, similar to the day Apple announced iTunes. Yelp is going to kill this business. They’re gonna be the iTunes of the takeout business. I can’t think of a social media stock that is killing it like Yelp, not ANGI, TRIP or Z– and I love them all.

I need to buy it back. I am going to stalk this stock like a creepy serial killer hiding in the shrubs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgPMwDNP-RA

I’ve been seeing this commercial non-stop and it’s brilliant marketing, pointing to the fact that the Samsung Galaxy is indeed waterproof.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEGGqW3ruk4

SHAME on the House of Jobs for falling behind the curve so badly. If Steve was alive today, I am sure he’d kill Tim Cook immediately after watching this commercial.

My favorite way to play the Samsung juggernaut is via IMMR. Say haptics.

This isn’t the bottom in commodity stocks. I am not bold enough to short them. But I am smart enough to not fall for their alluring looks either. It’s like having a wife that cheats on you. Once you catch her, you have no choice but to divorce and move on. It’s not the act itself that is reprehensible, but the vagrancy of her character.

Gold, silver, copper and steel stocks are constantly giving its shareholders venereal diseases. Why do you keep them around? Are you a glutton for punishment, you stupid gimp?

Here, have a look at my raw commodity index.

And here is my commodity stock index.

Even if you’re a super bull on commodities you don’t want to buy at bad levels. I define “bad” as not optimal or entirely opaque or uncertain. Is it possible that the bottom is in? Sure, no one has a crystal ball. Howsoever, it’s not probable, just looking at the recent trends and knowing the core underpinnings of the commodity trade, which are the commodities themselves, are still mired in mud.

I’d much rather take the other side of this trade and buy stocks who benefit from lower commodity prices, such as BWLD, FWM, NGVC, WFM, TFM, PPC, SAFM, HSY etc.

With lower commodity prices, hundreds of companies stand to benefit, not to mention millions of people who will be relieved to find lower prices at the store.

Get out from the ‘fag-box’ and start thinking like a boss, not like a peasant miscreant troll.

ATTENTION PEASANTS AND GENTLEMEN ALIKE: There is an epic thread taking place in Po Pimp’s NES take down post. I recommend having a look in.

HOV, RYL, BZH, DHI and LEN and all of the residential construction plays are buys, right now. If housing is going to continue to recover, mortgage plays like NSM, MTG, HLSS and RDN are going higher, much higher.

If housing isn’t going to dive lower again, taking the economy with it, material plays like CX, LPX and USG are buys.

Home improvement plays like HD, LOW, LL, MAS, FBHS and WSM are buys, right now.

Online software plays, like Z, TRLA and TXTR should be under accumulation, if in fact housing is on the come up.

h/t @Coopercerulo

This industry is so hated, it’s amazing. The market for new builds is strong and prices are rising. The bond market undergoes a little shake up and everyone marks the sector dead as a doornail. If I was a betting man, I’d start accumulating all of the above names into weakness, strength or indifference. The above stocks led the market higher from 2009 and will lead again. Once this little interest rate scare moves past us, housing will be front and center again, especially after another strong summer of housing data.

Every time an insider sells IMMR the shareholder base freaks out and goes on protest, sending the stock lower. It’s the most ridiculous thing in the world, yet it happens every single time. A few months back I illuminated the facts that insider sales are not predictive elements when trying to time entry points into IMMR. As a point in fact, the CEO executes his sales at the very worst times and can be viewed as a contrarian factor.

The market is higher, but I’m losing money thanks to IMMR. This is beginning to take on the characteristics of something I might deem to be annoying.

Silver, gold, copper and the homies are leading the pack today, all beaten down sectors–some more beaten down than others of course.

I’m not a buyer here. But if I was, I’d look to add to SCTY and USG at current levels, maybe a little HOV too.

NOTE: The shorts were right about ISRG.

UPDATE: I couldn’t help myself. I added to both FWM and SCTY.

There are short squeezes and there are epic short squeezes. The ordinary ones are cool, but not totally irrational–like Miami Zombie, Fontainebleau, Impala driving squeezes of epic proportions, like NFLX circa 2012.

Here are 10 epic squeezes to buy, monitor or lie about whilst at one of your homosexual cocktail parties.

TSLA
XONE
OSTK
CNQR
USNA
SAM
GMCR
Z
P
SCTY

You have no idea how low-brow the finance blogging world really is. Since I started doing this, way back in 2005, my number one concern was to be a responsible steward of news and information. Sometimes my true passion got lost in the profanity laden sauce, replaced with a stigma that I was just a stock market gangster, doing drive-by shootings on other “busters” who wore the “wrong colors.”

All of the personnel changes you’ve seen on iBC were for a reason. Blogging isn’t for everyone. In order to do this you must go into it knowing that you work for the people, not the other way around. Far too often, prospective bloggers and marginally successful bloggers look to “cash in” by either charging for their services or trying to “get liquid” on their readers. I am not flexible on these points and anyone who comes to iBC trying to abuse the readership will be fired immediately.

While it’s true, iBC has made some decent coin with its premium services over the years, I’d still do it for free if we had nothing to sell. This isn’t about money, never has been and never will be. Unlike many of my peers, I do this professionally and manage a very successful book of business. Of course my definition of success is failure for some of the hedge fund titans out there. And, to be honest, I am not satisfied with my progress over the years, often distracted by the site and other business concepts. However, I’ve managed to provide for my family and give my children things I wasn’t privy to when I was young. To me, success is gauged by legacy, not by the size of one’s house or price tag of a car.

What will my bloodline look like in 100-200 years? What will iBankCoin look like in 100 years?

I am not in this racket to flip and get rich quick. People will always need tools and advice to make money in the markets. This is a long term business that can be incredibly rewarding if done the right way.

By respecting money and your reputation, integrity and moral values will shine through. When you earn the trust of the people and provide a service that they are grateful for, success will follow. In some industries, this is hard, long, road to travel. But in my experience, it’s worth it every single time. There aren’t any shortcuts, even when it comes to little websites trying to help self directed investors improve their skill-sets and use the fruits of their labor to provide for their families.

I am a big believer in the ripple effect and always try my hardest to make a difference.

I am taking a risk by waiting for my stocks to work. Generally speaking, if you need to wait for your stocks to work while the market is ripping, you’re in the wrong stocks. In the big scheme of things, as long as I am outperforming the SPY, everything is in order.

I caught a huge break when FRO lifted to $2.35+ on heavy volume, which allowed me to sell. I timed my purchase of OWW and FWM perfectly and have made up all of my lost ground. But, I am sitting in some monster sized positions, IMMR, GS and O, that are trading sideways for weeks. Well, they’re not exactly flat. Their two week gains range from 2-7%. I want moar.

I’ve been looking at the refiners, since they’re down so much. Look at WNR, CVI, ALJ and HFC. They are in strong downtrends because the WTI-Brent spreads have tightened. In order for the refiners, especially mid-continent plays like WNR and HFC, to be meaningful, they need the WTI-Brent spread to be in excess of $10. At the height, the spread was north of $25, so you could imagine why the industry is so cold with the spread only $4.

If you are buying refiners here, you are taking a huge risk. This is a classic boom and bust industry that can push the envelope to the downside further than you think. I am sure many of you pencil eaters never thought AKS, CLF and WLT would trade down to the levels they’re at today. Right or wrong?

My last purchase of SCTY pushed me even further into leverage. I am stuck in my positions until winship occurs.