Here is Today’s Seeking Alpha Guru

Today’s Seeking Alpha hit piece was time perfectly. AMBA is in a quiet period and cannot refute the bullet points given in the article. The author, ELAD ASBAHI, knew this before posting his drivel this morning.

As far as I know, this is the second credible company he’s gone after, the first being AVG on 1/31/13.

 

Here’s what he said about AVG then:

• AVG Technologies’ (AVG) Platform business (i.e. the internet search product), including its browser toolbar, has been its most successful program to monetize its user base and has been AVG’s primary growth engine, having grown from 8% of sales in 2008 to 45% of sales in 2012. We believe this revenue stream is in jeopardy.
• Google (GOOG), AVG’s primary search partner and currently the source of substantially all of AVG’s Platform-derived revenue, is on the verge of announcing an update to its toolbar policy, something that has not been widely followed or discussed by market participants. Furthermore, few, if any, analysts on the street appear to be aware of the upcoming changes; if they are, they have decided not to publish or update their models accordingly. We believe that current consensus revenue and profit projections for AVG are severely inflated.
• Imminent changes to Google’s policies could dramatically lower the rate at which users install the AVG toolbar and consent to its default search option, at least slowing, but more likely severely reversing growth in AVG’s Platform business.
• The market appears to have misunderstood the significance of AVG’s recent partnership with Yahoo (YHOO), with the stock rallying close to 50% on the news. We believe this partnership was formed in desperation and anticipation of imminent Google toolbar policy updates. While AVG has added Yahoo as a backup monetization partner, Yahoo’s ability to generate revenue for its partners is far below Google’s, and if the day comes that it has to flex its reliance on Yahoo search, AVG’s revenue will likely contract in a major way.

We believe the equity is highly overvalued at current levels, with an intrinsic value of $8.50-$10/share, 30-40% below current trading levels.

 

How’d that work out for him?

The stock went straight up, now almost 60% higher from his last report.

In short, AMBA can’t defend itself today and the shareholder base is weak, which is leading to an Exodus in the shares. Is this bozo right about a potential earnings miss? Only time will tell. His only solid report was regarding ABAT, which turned out to be a chinese fraud stock, instead of a real company. Please, throw a dart at a wall filled with chinese stocks and odds are it is a fraud.

I like to buy into the blood, especially when the ‘news’ event is based upon conjecture and rumors–pumped out by the very worst financial website online, Seeking Alpha.

Earnings are scheduled for 9/5/13. For Elad’s sake, they better miss.

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