Disrupted Plans

When you sit down and concoct an investment plan, everything seems so perfect, until you actually put said plan into action. Such is the case with my current predicament, regarding AMBA.

I’ve concluded that I was going to ‘try’ to hold 3 core positions for  “awhile”, financed through my depravity of short term trading opportunities. In other words, I planned to own 12 stocks, trading around just 3–that would remain, no matter what. This way, price fluctuations for my core would be rendered immaterial, as I’d be building up my asset base through timely trades. As of late, I’ve closed out multiple winning trades. Just today I booked a very large gain by selling half of my DDD position. It was, in fact, my 2nd largest position this morning. With some of my proceeds, I started a position in TRLA and averaged down in AMBA.

Here is my conundrum.

I’ve been averaging down in AMBA since $16.66 (god damn omen) and the price is following the path of another large position of mine, IMMR. Both have grossly underperformed. My asset performance has been buoyed by YELP, gains in ONVO, DDD, CXO, OPEN and WIT. And, I also sold 30% of my IMMR position north of $14.30, which helped.

But here I am, chasing down a non-core position down the drain into earnings. Am I mad, or onto something big?

There hasn’t been any news, just rumours and innuendo. Of course one must be mindful of the old saying “where there’s smoke, there’s fire.” However, aside from the Seeking Alpha drivel, every analyst covering the stock, namely the guy from Deutsch Bank (Ross Seymore), who happens to be a very good analyst, loves the stock and feels it’s worth $20. I’ve made up my mind, have you, and I am riding this sucker through earnings, like an olde fashioned automobile made from dynamite sticks heading for the sun.

The curious case of IMMR is equally vexing, if not infuriating. I’ve determined that I am going to stick with certain names, come hell or high water, regardless of imminent peril and financial hazard. The audible here, of course, is AMBA, an unplanned 4th core position, which was thrusted upon me like the north thrusted themselves upon the peace loving confederates.

My year to date gains still stand in the high 30% range, and I didn’t just humiliate myself by selling out of 39 million shares of JCP at the lows.

So, life isn’t that bad. I’ll manage through it.

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