iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,447 Blog Posts

Taking a Calculated Risk

What I am about to say will befuddle many of you, but I want YELP to trade down after earnings. For the love of calamity, I want to own YELP 20% lower. But I think it trades much higher, maybe over $100 within two years. So, clearly, I had to own some ahead of earnings. If this is their breakout quarter and I missed it, I would’ve never forgiven myself. You can view my position as a hedge against my ego.

GPRE is a killer ethanol play, who just beat numbers. The stock is down, classically, post earnings in a ‘sell the news event.’ The stock will trade higher.

Lastly, I bought AMBA because I’m a HUGE fan of the police state trend that is spreading worldwide. These are the guys who will eventually record you, as you are taking a dump in your corporate bathroom.

Regardless of what the stock does in the short term, longer term, this company is a keeper.

Don’t forget, as I mentioned earlier, I doubled the size of my POWI position. I believe the stock should be trading 30x 2014 earnings or $90 per share.

Oh, and I sold some IMMR, just to free up some capital. I let some get yesterday and again today because it was 30% of assets. My goal is to reduce it to 15-20% ahead of earnings.

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19 comments

  1. J Livermore

    Our mighty General was shot off his horse as he “was” yelling “HOLD YOUR LINE” in the heat of IMMR battle?

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  2. matt_bear

    yelp spiked up $5 bucks after hours. nice play.

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  3. ripper

    damn FLY. would have been a good close for IMMR

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    • The Fly

      I keeps it real.

      Don’t worry, this is all child’s play. After earnings, true direction will be revealed.

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      • Warhead

        Very nice call. I didn’t have the stomach for the pre-ER buy; I’ve taken too many strikes to the head lately. A lot of fine stocks have rolled after good ER lately. Do you see a few points pullback before marching up, or just up from here?

        Do you ever sell PUTs to lower your cost basis when you are bullish or just smash and grab the stock? Thanks. New here but like the vibe and general absence of bs. You run a tight ship sir.

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  4. OG

    Hope we get some shorts yelping tomorrow.

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  5. Juice

    nice play on YELP, boss man

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  6. FX guy

    what happened to the FX blog guy Kong ? Is he gone already ?

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  7. gatorsun

    Mr Fly…did you get RKUS?

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  8. flyaway18

    Idk, another story re: GPRE on seeking alpha saying sell…let’s see what Mr. market thinks…

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  9. Mr. Partridge

    Bought AMBA too , didn’t see your blog but was watching since you started talking about it.

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  10. Whaler31

    You know, The Fly has a few tricks “up his sleeve”, one of which is simple (yet, hard to learn): “Don’t fight The Fed”

    Bernanke has just announced no tapering, for the foreseeable future, right?

    The Fed seems to have gained control of all commodity, and other critical markets-WORLDWIDE.

    They have printed $38 TRILLION, and bailed out all the stinky-nasty debt of all those bank-thingies.

    $38 Trillion (+/- a few trillion) of green backs, bought up all that stinky-nasty worthless debt. Remember, this started out with our lovely S & L’s (and then, the banks). Now they have to make it all disappear.

    So, these men that criminally created all this debt, have been bailed out. The Fed has been buying it, then shredding it.

    America can’t have criminal liabilities on the balance sheet, unless it is in “black projects”.

    Either it makes it or breaks it, and the last time I checked, The Fed is still based in America.

    It is all quite surreal, but let’s keep it real.

    The USA is not going away, just forget about things like “jobs”, and “pensions” and “social security”, for the next half decade (or so).

    Look at the bright side, you still get your Obama-Care, right?

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  11. ottnott

    Look at SAM tonight. Up almost 10% AH.

    Great earnings, revs, and outlook. Starting to use its great cash generation more for expansion and less for buying back shares.

    21% of the tiny float sold short.

    Does have a high PE, but has kept shorters miserable with a combination of growth and share buybacks.

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  12. Jules

    Don Senor Fly, do you still like EMKR? Earnings Aug 7.

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