We keep running and running without pause. All of my friends believe the market is nearing a top. I felt May would be a very bad time for the market. However, price action has minimized my conviction for a downward reversal.
The conundrum is knowing tops happen when no one expects them.
CLIR is up today thanks to a company conference call last night that obviously attracted new buyers. Keep an eye on that stock, for it is the favourite of The Devil.
Speaking of which, he is very eager to get started on iBC. But he will not be penning missives or explaining his ideas in detail. He is paranoid about his identity and wants me to post his ideas for him, in bullet point fashion. So don’t expect to be introduced to the person called “The Devil” any time soon. For now, his top ideas will have to suffice.
After the bell are earnings from RBCN. They’ve disappointed every quarter for as long as I can remember. Expectations are very pessimistic, which might work in favor of the share price action post report. For the record, I am not enthusiastic about earnings tonight. I am in the stock for the turn in the sapphire industry, fueled by 2nd half wins at certain smartphone makers.
UPDATE: I trimmed my RBCN position by 30% and bought ARG for the $100 roll.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Indeud.
It will happen when I am 100% long.
Got a sunburn from FSLR today.
Been waiting for this top since 2009…bubbles take a very long time.
You’ve been “waiting” for a top since 2009? What the hell have you been doing for the past four years, twiddling your thumbs?
Watching and learning the internal movements of a Bubble. Really amazed how big they get..
damn this is the same banter that gave stockpickr its 15 minutes of fame who knew it is still being perpetuated and you are still waiting for the bubble to burst? brings back fond memories of complete utter nonsensensical posts and great diversions kudos if you ever learned all the names of those dry shippers
this will continue to run until it doesnt. the only thing that will derail it quickly is a geo political event, otherwise a lot of sctors are saying risk on. Just look at Cons Disc. MTD
I don’t think there is going to be any kind of top until the fed decides to end the party. Valuations can stretch as far as they want when there are basically no alternatives. And I don’t think the fed (or any other central banks) are worried at all about the stock markets making new highs. I don’t think the fed would care if the SPX went north of 2000 – all they are watching is the underlying metrics of the economy which are really not all that hot.
Plus, once the underlying economy does turn, they are going to be as gentle as possible on the equity and bond markets – would not surprise me if some form of QE is around for the next decade.
Just think back to ’99 – man that thing went on and on and on. Alan ‘honey badger’ Greenspan didn’t worry one bit about it.
Not going to happen. Commodities peaked. USA housing recovery is “Investor” lead and today we got stats that the Rental Prices are moving sideways/down so investors should be leaving soon. EU really can’t cut much more and Germany isn’t going to do Eurobonds, China isn’t going to give you QE ala 2009 and is slowing. Plus, they are going to stop Yuan/USD carry trade..so borrowing in USD and paying off in 19 year Yuan is going bye bye. The Clams have done everything they can and at some point everyone will see that they can’t fix the global economy and we must go thru our horrible mess we created….not the soft fluffy pillow recovery you and the Clam expects.
So far it’s been the best soft fluffy pillow recovery EVER!
It’s a shame you have missed out on one of the greatest bull markets of all time. How does that fit into your “learning experience”?
NOW we have seen the highs.
Nothing to fear in this market, unless by chance we get the Cicada Signal.
A major top is probably still a couple years away. A minor top anywhere from very soon to a few months.
Shaeprices aren’t really up so much as monetary value is down.
HOGWASH
I don’t agree with that. UUP up 2.5% since the start of 2013. Commodities mixed but more downward to flat than upwards
http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=17
Stocks seem to be outperforming most commodities.
I don’t know about your area of the country but milk, cheese and meats are high here in Upstate New York. Transportation expenses are still being passed on to the consumer and although commodities appear to be in deflation mode I’m not seeing it in the checkout line. Oh yes, nuts – cashews, walnuts, almonds and pistachios, sky high – and peanut oil has gone beserk for a while now.
I don’t see your point. The point that stocks are going up and not “currency is going down” still stands. Businesses pass prices on to the consumer. So if any “inflation” occurs they raise prices, if “deflation” occurs they keep them the same, thus margins always seem to leave room for profit and thus earnings expansion and businesses continue to cause stocks to outpace inflation.
There is still scarcity of individual asset class, bad farming seasons and what not to change supply/demand as well. Additionally, any “money printing” has to at a minimum keep up with population and interest payments and debt destruction to even tread water. As a result of the necessary money printing some individual assets will go up more than others. Right now if there is any benefactor to “money printing” it is stocks and not because of “devaluation of the dollar” or any of that nonsense.
You said “when deflation occurs they keep (prices) the same.” In what scenario then, and under what circumstances then, does food become cheaper? Only when supply exceeds demand? And I have no idea what you mean by “There is still scarcity of individual asset class.” I’m just a plebe so help me out.
The top will occur when and if inflation shows up.
Wrong. If inflation actually shows up, we are going MUCH higher. Problem is that it’s nowhere to be found, see gold, rest of commodity complex, CPI.
You must have gone to Timestamp U. Low commod prices bullish for consumption: sounds nice and neat but in the context of endless QE, it’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.
Lebron is at the top of his game.
The worm turns when the trader bots decide to sell.
The Top comes when folks are margined up to the nose, and they can’t buy in selloffs, because they’re forced out.
1987 folks were margined from naked puts
2000 – Even the public was high on margin
2007-2008 long list ..AIG, Indy Mac, Countrywide…Lehman all margined to the nose
Otherwise you need a foreign policy type disaster.
“1987 folks were margined from naked puts
2000 – Even the public was high on margin
2007-2008 long list ..AIG, Indy Mac, Countrywide…Lehman all margined to the nose
Otherwise you need a foreign policy type disaster.”
======================
Yep….lot to that kitty kat. o(^_^)o
In basic terms…markets don’t go streight up.
So near, yet so far. Indued.
When the Los Angels electric grid gets shut down by Chinese hackers….then the top will be in.
RBCN = WHOOPS!!!!!
After Hours : 5.99 Down 1.17
Ill be buying the dip
I think you might
have something there
Dr. Fly. I’m thinking
on it.
It appears Hannibal has crossed the Rubicon.
And someone shot him and his elephant with a ruby red laser.
______
nice timing on the news on the Icanhn increase in HLF stake. Shorts are not only getting slowly squeezed but they’ll have to pay the quarterly divy in a couple of days.
1999 p/e ratio’s were around 44%, we’re only about 22% right now. Fed may have to increase asset purchases 1 more time before they begin to unwind. You’ve been warned, be careful shorting this tape.
Pullback will happen of course, the question is when ..patience is important.
How much pullback are you expecting? What are your shopping lists when it happens?
Thanks Mr. P !
10-15% of the top … don’t know where the top is though
old man stocks, just adding to long term holds: ENB RCI BCE PG .. staples, telecoms, utilities, pipelines, pharm., etcs… and nothing to do with commodities of any kinds….
also tecn etfs and retails like TGT WMT HD LOW …. all long term holds for me
Thanks Mr. P !
The best price action has been in the undervalued and under followed Been Graham Blue Chip “Value” plays.
Three weeks ago GLW/CHRW/ACT/ESRX made my buy list.
Last week it was PRU/MET/DISH
Unbelievable moves from all. In a market that has bid up every well known dividend name far beyond fair value ex:(JNJ/PG/KMB/PEP/KO)
anything sexy/growthy/small/mid cap indexes to the hilt, these underloved and under followed names are ripping tits!