You do understand how superficial the stock market is, right? People in the real world, working 12 hours a day to pay for their inflated rents couldn’t give two shits and a gay mule about Greece or the Nasdaq. There are the unlucky ones, who for some reason have been targeted by disease, whose only wish is for a “good day” and are totally ignorant to Facebook’s great big ipo blah.
For us, traders, money managers, pundits etc, the market is everything. We watch it with a crazed intensity, obsessing over every movement. We venture off to blogs and “streams” to measure our dicks to the other traders, telling them that they are “shit” and we are “the shit.” On those streams, obsessive overlords fixate on rules and appearance, all to appease their corporate hack clients.
It’s all shit.
This whole big dog and pony show is orchestrated chaos. I am having an exceptionally difficult time making sense of this because the rules keep changing, correlations that once existed have vanished, paving the way for newer nonsensical ones. Since when does an industry leader in its prime come public and ravage the share prices of its peers by 10-25% in a single trading session? You tell me.
Of course, those of you with your penises exposed, ruler in hand, will cry they were a bubble. However, if LTRO2 was announced on Friday, you’d all be down 20% by Monday, you and your stupid shorts. Pray tell me, bold jackass from the interwebs, how do you plan against another Fed or ECB statement, or even Chinese central bank action, that will once again attach fire to the faces of those in the FAZmobile?
Answer: you cannot.
The problem that most people have, when investing in this market, is greed. We’re all chasing the high stakes commodity or tech names, hoping for a quick 20% pop. Meanwhile, stocks like KMB, PEP, CHD and others, are steadily climbing higher, not giving a fuck about Europe, at all.
How am I supposed to justify staying long with Europe devolving into chaos, TLT north of $124, whilst commodities and stocks are in crash mode?
The answer is naively simple: I’ve been trained to expect a bid from the Fed or ECB. Over the past 4 years, I’ve witnessed crazy shit and just when I thought there was nothing that could be done to save “the system”, BAM!, the system got saved. Perhaps this is “the big one” and perhaps I will finally get what’s coming to me. I’ve dodged so many bullets, these past 4 years, it’s only a matter of time before one hits.
Nonetheless, my position is more tenuous than ever before, despite still being up 2% for the year. I feel as if a wave is about to come crashing down on my head and I’ve resigned myself to face it head on, instead of wavering for shelter.
6 mo carnage of GARP index in The PPT (these are “value plays”, down 20% in recent weeks, approaching 6 mo lows)
FIG
This market is totally manipulated. Nothing to do with fundamentals. It’s all about guessing what the Bernank will do from behind closed doors.
Ben Bernank “http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOXtWxhlsUg”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOXtWxhlsUg
The Fed is letting commodities (and the market) temporarily deflate in price so it can QE again and have commodities inflate from their new lower prices. The Fed is playing a delicate balance trying to keep the system from failing and at the same time not over inflate.
On that count they are not doing to badly in all reality. The other side of the coin though is that retail investors and solitary traders alike are crushed under the economic steamroller that is QE and other market machinations.
That be us.
Facebook is different from the other big IPO’s in years past. They’ve already raised billions and billions in private capital, and the stock was already trading in a fairly vibrant public market “off” wall St. So it’s hard to compare the FB IPO to others such as MSFT, CSCO, GOOG, etc etc which all went public when they were much smaller companies and without so many shares having already traded hands among investors prior to an IPO. FB is just different.
Yeah, market price was pretty well set for them in the private markets. I kept ignoring that as I fucked up.
Agreed. Question – how much will they let the market go? May-June 2011 SPX went 1360 to 1265. July-August 2011 SPX went 1355 to 1120. How much this time? How much capital do the European banks need?
More than anyone has. More than all combined.
Your post reminds me of the emotions displayed by Hollywood actors in Mafia movies, when they’re just about to get “capped”. Out of nowhere, full disclosure. Being a “piker” with an algorithm that I trust, and worked independently for years fine-tuning it, I’ve always been a fan of your style, the way you’ve developed as a writer, the manner in which you have made this website better each year, etc. As I look at the numbers, I’d say the easy money is found by breaking the shorts, and that’s what the real big money does, and this is their game after all. I made these same pronouncements in August and on October 1st, and am willing to do it again. We have so much more upside than down…ring the opening bell.
there was a time when you said the Bernank is throwing funny money out in the open and the market goes higher, why would you fight this?
well, longs are getting their medicine right now because that funny money is not so funny, ain’t that right silly bulls?
the NYSE composite is telling the real story. so while the bulls rejoice makeshift CB rallies that lose their power with every additional print job, the rot is ever getting bigger and bigger.
crash in 2008, 2010, 2011, and now 2012. lol.
i’ve been trained to expect a bid from the CBs. yes indeed it’s naive.
This shall be a week for the ages.
We’re gonna bounce!
The Market is The Market.. It is all in The price of it all. You can win. If u stop the whining
There is no ” dark hand or
Anything else holding any one back from great gains. But the press. Do your homework and prosper.
You are lying to yourself.
Fuck the follling 4ever. Whitney. FABER. Roubin Rogers. And all of the giant whores and scumbags on CNBFuckin C
Okay, your phrase “unlucky ones… targeted by disease” hits home.
My brother is dying of ALS. He’s not old. He has a great life to look back on, great family, two sons, a career as a pilot, lots of travel. … I hope sitting on my butt in front of my computer watching stock fluctuations isn’t what I look back on when it’s my turn. Working on being aware of the market without being consumed by it, regardless of what it’s doing.
i hope your bro is comfortable, my mother in law pasted with als. be well. god bless.
Health is so important and most of us take it for granted. I too hope your brother enjoys, the best he can, the time he has here, pain free if possible.
Don’t know how you feel about it LD but I will say a prayer for him and his family. May he and all of you find the peace that passes understanding in a time of great trial.
Thanks.
being wishfull and hopefull is as dangerous as being complacent..doesnt matter to me what tomorrow brings
then you are not an investor, but a day trading crack addict.
it would seem that your definition of words is different than my book of definitions
I would not place too much faith in your book of words. Seems that many are spelled wrong… bad sign right off the bat.
and i would not put to much faith in your ability to comprehend what you read
And another misspelling!
What’s with all the links in your posts all of the sudden? It’s almost as if you have some kind of code in your web pages that programmaticly turns text in to links.
Whenever I write The PPT it is hardcoded to autolink. It’s been like that for years. Just ignore.
You are correct about greed. QE3 is a myth perpetuated by gold bugs to increase their subscription base to scam off of the gullible. “Yeah, invest in miners, Ben is going to print money so you can make 100% in three months. Gold will be $5000 and a loaf of bread will be $20.”
If this is the case I’ll invest in flour futures.
Talking about rigged. . . I made money but fuck Michael Moe. All those secondaries fucked those of us who owned the shares b4 the add ons. I will never buy it ever again!
I’m still waiting for the fat lady
to sing
Plenty of time to have a rally before the Greek fat lady sings (elections) on June 17–if Greece elects to sing good bye to the Euro.
The thin man sings an appropriate tune;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GeHZ5rJfnh4
RIP Robin ….
buying the hole. nothing out in stockland but. where are the bears?
Unless there’s a panic tape, tomorrow should up tomorrow as the USD weakens against most tapes, supporting the “support” thesis after the longest, consistent down move in recent memory holes (no DNBC Buttaroma).
CHina is talking about adding stimulus tonight, this is the Lame Duck Govt that if it is talking about that then the Flash PMI data this week must really suck. EU Finance meetings are meeting this week…but the real issue, imho, this week is Oil. Iran gets another chance of making nice.
Fly, NFP up/CPI up FOMC can’t act. ECB won’t act until after Greek Thing, same for IMF. BoJ will add stimulus this week probably, but that is good for the dollar. Aussie is cutting. BoE ain’t doing anything until a deep recession..I see a perfect storm of inaction.