I’ve been in this business for a long time. My career has been riddled with one stock market calamity after another. I have never seen pessimism like I am seeing today. This is, by far, the most doom and gloom environment since I’ve been managing money, even worse than 2008. The price action is not nearly as bad as 2008, but the sentiment is.
This morning Cramer and Faber all but guaranteed the EFSF would not be used to bail out Europe and that in no way would it be leveraged. Moreover, Cramer said we need to go back to the September lows and that Europe was going to collapse and nationalize all of its banks. Even worse, he suggested they would crush bond holders of bank debt too. David Faber chimed in and said Greece was on the verge of an unorganized default of more than $500 billion in debt.
As I watched this fucking horseshit, I was reminded of getting shaken out of my VXX position a few weeks ago, thanks to the cocksuckers on CNBC (the same network that is now calling for collapse) sucking the dicks of the Europeans–promoting the EFSF as a vehicle that could save the planet. Let me make this clear: CNBC said two weeks ago the EFSF was being levered to $1.4 trillion and said we were off to the races. Now they are saying the opposite.
Let me make a cogent point to all of you: I am not upset at CNBC for giving me bad advice. I don’t accept financial advice from anyone, so it’s a moot point. Clearly, this is a network that cannot be trusted. They lack integrity and seem only interested in goosing viewership through sensationalistic stories to support their ad revenue. It’s no surprise that decent people like Dylan Ratigan, Eric “the oil barrel” Bolling and Erin Burnett left for other pastures.
Look, this is an incredibly hard tape. My mood swings are at an all-time high and I am driving my wife crazy. Whenever the market goes against my positions I threaten to quit the business and live out the rest of my life at Puma Punku. I don’t give a shit about a seven figure income and talking to important people about the market. Those people can go fuck themselves. The minute the market starts to bore me, I am quitting. I will wire client funds back and close this shit down for good.
The way I see it, I am too young to be so upset over things that I have no control over. The markets are blatantly manipulated, helped by nefarious people in the media like CNBC. My true passion is to build great financial products, like The PPT. I have a thousand ideas swirling around in my head for future products, one of which is going to be launched soon. It’s a new website and you will love it.
At any rate, I’ve turned off my monitor and have opted to just roll with the punches, betting that Cramer and Faber have it wrong again.
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now you’ve scared me
this market is going down hard and fast next week if it cannot close higher today, even the turkey God cannot save this one …
oh man…
cliffhanger..Fly killed Natalie Wood.
DK:
You know what kind of wood doesn’t float?
Natalie.
Told you..
Lenny’s picture is always scary!
“Hope” is not a strategy. But Tebowing is a good plan. Grab a cup of Dunkin’ Donuts, get down on one knee, and Tebow it.
Let the PPT be your guide. It gave me CHOP and I am grateful for that. It gave me FTK and I am very grateful for that. I don’t trade other peoples money and I am very very grateful for that. Silver lining in every cloud and all that – I sleep well.
…ya betta get back to Tennassee Jed.
Dude, you’ve always commented on how stupid the cnbc employees are.
But, the channel is valuable because its noteriety attracts people with valuable opinions
Only one way to “watch” cnbc: sound off, eyes averted from screen.
wnr here fly buy the extremes? What do you think?
anyone like the idea of shorting Japanese Bonds?
have not watched cnbc since 08 why do u?
I would assume it is because they tend to move markets (at times)
Can’t play an ostrich in this game, with your head in the sand.
Fly, I would agree with you almost 100% except for the LIBOR-OIS spread seemingly blowing out. I agree that Cramer is an unreliable tell, but I think this time he may be right. This is what I’m watching now: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.LOIS3:IND
Puma Punku looks like a nice place…..to DIE…..buried in a diorite casket.
Sure, as long as it’s a Diorite Pineapple Casket.
_________
I can still hear Cramer in 2008 shouting that he was calling a bottom….when the Dow was around 10,000 or so.
I suggest flying down to Walt Disney’s World down there in Orlanda (sic), and having yourself a Turkey Leg or three.
It’s obvious you are having an acute tryptophan deficiency depressive event. Your serotonin levels must look like shit.
Be sure to call Trader Caddy before flying down and make sure he meets you at Little Bavaria (braus in hand) in the Epcot Centre (sic).
__________
Mutant Rick Ross turkey legs at that.
Someone posted this http://barnhardt.biz/index.cfm in the comments yesterday. You won’t be alone quitting, but I hope you don’t.
he said if he got bored with the market … he is anything but bored with the current market!
OT, how did you set your avatar?
Great question – I tried to sign up with Gravatar last night – what a cluster. Still haven’t been able to get one on my blog
And of course, now it works….. doh!
It takes a few minutes. If you are testing on your own machine, it helps to clear your browser’s cache.
That lady sounds batshit crazy. Perhaps she’s right, but seems a bit “tinfoily” to me. Her and Glenn Beck must be friends.
“She and Glenn Beck.”
A-game!
_______
The Senator is “Editor of the Interblogs”
Damn! My use of the English language has definitely become better with the help of Senor Fly.
Sometimes, you just need to be slapped around a bit to remember to use proper English.
I am half English, therefore, I am ashamed at some of the absolute desecration of the English words and punctuation I’ve posted on iBC.
(I do have fingers shaped like stubby Cuban cigars, if that is an consolation)
Forgive me?
I will bring my “A-game” henceforth.
We need the banks to fuel a sustainable rally…without financials we are trickling down with a slow boil. That said, banks look to be turning a corner technically and fundamentally in my view so the hard trade to go long here has merit.
To clarify…US banks turning a corner. Euro-trash BS will take years to unwind…they are stuck in our 2008 financial crisis.
Agreud. No recovery without financials. RY got clobbered yesterday and I added. In the case of CDN banks they have clean balance sheets and loads of reserve in the event of a meltdown. I keep collecting my divies either way.
You’re going to be fucked with that RY long.
Canadian banks are 100% gay (No Homo(phobia)).
I disagree. A company that hasn’t cut a dividend in its history of +100 years seems pretty reasonable investment to me. But then, we all have our methods. Mine is that all of my money in the market, remains in the market no matter what. I only look for relative strength and relative weakness and shift piles when I see the right opportunities.
Listen, I live in Canada. We are fucked. Levels paralleled only by the US in late 2006. 2bedroom/2bathroom apartment =$600,000(AND THATS NOT IN THE NICE PART OF TOWN)..I couldn’t make this shit up, It’s fucking ridiculous.
RY has a fucked business model, whereby they no longer make money 3-6-3. They make money on fee’s and excess spread on mortgage pools sold. Those excess spreads will be wiped out in seconds when the housing market even just corrects slightly.
You know what. Don’t listen to me. You keep staying 100% in the market.
Thanks. I am now up 1% in one day. How did you do today?
I laugh at your +1%. I’m on another level.
Pretty good for one day IMO. Don’t worry, I acknowledge days I’m wrong too. What positions did you sell out of today?
Rotating positions for gains of 1% every two days = annualized returns of 600%.
Once a week = 66%. What’s laughable about that? I visit this site to learn from others who think outside the box of traditional trading methods, so educate me.
Follow me and find out.
http://ibankcoin.com/10banger/
What are you talking about? Canada is in great economic shape (considering the ROW). Unless you’re in Vancouver, Toronto or Calgary, housing prices are actually reasonable.
I’m having fucking flash backs of 2007.
“Unless you’re in Miami, Vegas , _____(Input some other bullshit area), housing prices are actually reasonable.”
Apologizes if I sound like a dick.
Don’t forget Jeff Macke left CNBC too. He left in the best way possible though.
I try watching Macke at his new “gig” but that voice and speed talk…can’t do more than five minutes at a time.
Howard Beale style
I left CNBC too.
There goes TRP into a full blown bounce.
75% of traders expect market higher into xmas rally = 75% of traders are positioned wrong lol
http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/article/32/DAYTRADERS-25420/Traders-Counting-on-Santa-Claus-Rally/
Thanks dude for the honesty. I feel similarly. Kicking the dog is getting boring so I’m walking away for a few days which certainly will result in a rally. It’s my present to the IBC community. The market has gone from like a casino to a casino. Even card counters lose. Sometimes it’s best to leave the table for a while.
Going net long now.
CNBC is interested in selling ads.
Cramer is right about what he said today.
Debt restructurings and deflation are preferrable to a Weimar collapse in the end as painful ass it is.
It’s much easier to watch the clowns on CNBC once you accept the fact that Europe is toast.
Building financial products is a worthy pursuit as would be building teams of minions to be released on call. Delivering neck punches to political inside traders,moronic hippie wanna be protesters,or double talking media experts.This leadership role would offer great joy to the right man.
I think a nice level of cash is a good place to be, enough to weather a calamatious move if this all plays out the way CNBC now predicts. Make your wife crazy in a good way as we women really like that kind of attention. It will be a great way to refocus all these negative vibes you’re feeling right now. This too shall pass.
Rally to 1225-1230 tops than down to at least 1170. Testing the new FAZmobile Vrooooooom Vroooooom . Got that Michael VXX too.
Busted rib dog killah best not show up this weekend.
_____
Hey jakie, get yo gravatar updated with his mug shot.
Brünnhilde’s Immolation Scene
The 1-yr rate of change in the 10-yr Treasury yield is -32%. When there’s been that much of a stampede into Treasuries the equity markets are pretty near a bottom.
The $VIX has been stubbornly hanging above 30 but the spread between the $VIX’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages is in the same position (200-day > 50-day but converging) as and at the same value as it was in February 2009.
The only thing that gives me pause in expecting a bit-time Christmas rally is that sentiment by one measure (the Investor’s Intelligence survey) shows a pretty high % of bulls.
Feels like October 4th. I’m selling SPY puts.
An RGLD purchasing opportunity is nearly afoot
AMEN BROTHER. This is as legit of a post as I have ever digested.
Btw, I have been trading since the age of 9 yrs old, 37 now, and the stock market is now a calamity of epic proportions.
Where the flack have you been SW?
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They rolled out Cramer to do what he does best ….mislead the sheeple and part them from their money. Since he’s doing this on a Friday, I think he is trying to get people to position themselves for a big drop and Sunday, we’ll hear about a European bailout that will send the Dow up 400.
Quite possible, they steal from us and laugh their asses off… I’d strangle each and every politician and slimy insider thief to death one by one if I could get away with it..
Make that two by two…I’m in.
This slow bleed is killing me. Why can’t we just get this sh*t over with?
Is The Fly still riding the doom wagon?
One night this week Cramer said “watch FXE as the barometer for the entire market” – FXE up .39% today
FXE, eh? A few weeks ago it was PFE.
Good Ole Cramer, how can he live with himself?
The ego is running that brain.
Creamer (sic) has a brain?
Yes, it just lacks the part that feels empathy and guilt…you know, a sociopath.
He said when he was at GS and went out selling in upstate NY in the 80s PFE was the “leader” he would get the overall direction of the market from when he called in. Since the 2008 crash it has been AAPL – till Jobs passed
Helping the Fly in this awful moment
Breathtaking new market system:
http://stockerblog.blogspot.com/2011/11/supermodel-gisele-outperforms-dow.html
occupy biodomes.
Eric the oil barrel Bolling used to be a decent person … not so sure anymore
Rat-Again lives up to his name, as well.
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Yeah … He’s changed … Too much FBN influence maybe ???
He’s a commie.
____
Fly you are the best person sharing market related thoughts, ideas, and opinions on the internet. For real.
you will all get coal in your stockings this year. and that duffus named cramer,i will bring him tons of coal,and before santa leaves,will make sure the reindeers poop heavily all over his home before he wakes,so next spring his lawn will look worse than that fly lawn from yore
I’m going long coal…
LOL. Fly wins again. Now Liesman is on the Euro blows up this weekend bandwagon. Do the producers get together to plot this stuff?
I think that was our 8th attempt to rally the Dow today, every time it gets sold into, any ideas out there?
If this market was a person, I’d punch it in its face.
Now you’re talking..
try the monitor it works for me.
it can get expensive though.
What does everyone do when a trade goes the wrong way? I have been tempted to push the monitor to the floor. In most cases, I scream out a string of obcenities.
I wish I could bank coin just reading your blog, Mr. Fly.
This market is totally retarded.
A steel-tipped boot to the cajones would send this market into a 1999 bull run.
the markets are, eye’s without a face.
Yes, the market is horribly manipulated by the shiteaters at JPM, GoldmanSucks, CME, etc. while the regulators wack off while watching porn and congress carts the treasury off to their caves in wheelbarrows and trade stocks on their crackberries while voting on bills in their palace. Yes we’re all fucked, as has been obvious the past year as the market goes up hundreds of points while Europe burns to the ground and CNBC asshats tell us they’re just roasting marshmallows. Then crashes down hundreds of points while greasy little bastards with accents grope each other and make sweet promises in each other’s ears. Yes we’re all fucked!
Got the top down in the new FAZmobile speakers on full blast Rick Astley http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
life is good….
You know Rick Astley is gay, right?
….(chuckling)….
Superior white perky tits muzak…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPBBgRpxrY8&feature=related
Very little gayness.
did you just attempted to rick rolled this blog?
brilliant.
FWIW I just got a long crossover confirmation on 30 min $SPX
kc-
Do traders really want to hold long positions over the weekend? Monday could easily see futures -300 based on the Euro-disaster.
I guess it’s a 50/50% bet.
Def. not. Another sell off is imminent..
not necessarily. we flushed into options exp.
I bet its entirely possible, even probable, that the next leg up is about to commence.
Your optimism is admired, but we are fading for sure..
Which one is it?
Caddy-post your chart.
It feels like fu-cking doomsday to me.
No – they typically don’t in this enviornment (and neither would I).
By the same token you could easily see a 3% gap up Monday if the Euros say they’re turning the presses on.
Germany won’t have it..
In all honesty – none of us know what the Euros will or won’t do – only their options which can be broken down to Inflate, Default or Dissolve.
Is Germany the boss of it all?
pretty much
I think there has to be more pain for the presses to be put full on
Until they too are in recession …
Market is holding up surprisingly well if CNBC is running around with their heads cut off.
Did they ever do anything nice for Mark Haines after he croaked?
I kinda liked that doughnut eater.
Yes, there were many tributes to Mark Haines.
The last of the “old school” RIP Mark.
Haines definitely agreed with Erin and Fly… and he knew how to make a statement.
Hey Troll-
You could tell that Erin and Mark were kindred spirits. I think she left because he left, permanently.
Europe will probably still be there in 10 years.
Cascadian-
Woke up with 4″ of snow, been snowing all day, in Bend, Oregon.
Europe will be there, but who will own it? The IMF?
I swear to G, if Bernake tries to step in that Euro dog pile, I will lose confidence in the US forever.
maybe I’ll waitba little longer before I consider getting back into the market (on a much smaller scale than before)
OK, I have been sitting around pondering all of this today. The only numbers I care about next week is Wednesday’s FLASH (not final) PMI numbers out of China and Europe. 50 and above is Good, Below 50 is bad…China is holding by a tread above 50, will it timber? Seeing Pictures of a Chinese man holding up a sign like a homeless person, reading “Do you want to buy a home” in their press says it all. For CNBC, they are grasping to understand all of this just like us, but many don’t put in the homework that we do imho.
Nymph-
Where are the US Air Force spy satellites when you need them?
We could get the dope today, if only we had the security clearance.
Damon, So much of the giddy girls were gossiping about China Data online until China Govt clamped down and started arresting people..darn them, lol. We just need a video cam in Markit who does the data.
I have a bad feeling about China.
I called the stupidity of the “no-loss” sell rule as soon as it came out, but the speed with which they reversed course took me by surprise.
What does that say, when a new “law” like that, coming out of that government, can’t even survive a year? Hell, did it even last a month?
I wish we could get rid of bad laws like that,
momentum stocks getting hit AAPL AMZN CMG BIDU PCLN Not good for market. IMO we drop big next week. Sell while you can
AAPL should have never been over 404..stupid AAPL.
CAP!
all cash…..
excellent post, my compliments.
Bloomberg Surveillance is a very coherent program every morning…it’s the only financial talkshow I actually look forward to anymore. The collective CNBC staff are a bunch of adolescent, transparent, political hacks that communicate at a third level…constantly interrupting and shouting over one another. It’s almost impossible to watch.
decent people like Dylan Ratigan, Eric “the oil barrel” Bolling and Erin Burnett? they’re all narcissist sleaze whores …
what the hell good is a new product with the markets so rigged now? it’s a no can win…