Will JEF or MS fold first? Better yet, how about Italy or Spain? France or Germany?
There is such a wide range of potential market killers, it’s staggering.
Yet, here we are with an impotent 100 point decline. Hell, with all of these headwinds, the market should be 3,000 points lower from here, literally. This is my conundrum. A few weeks back I got caught up in the idea that stocks had to go down because it made so much sense. If you listened to fucktards like Chris Walen, you would sell short your mother and move to China to work at a FOXCONN factory. Things have a way of working out–really. Sometimes you have to trust that things will work out, even if the world is on the precipice of laughable insanity.
But that doesn’t mean you should go out and buy anything.
For one, don’t repeat my mistakes by believing anything Chinese is worthwhile. Avoid Chinese burrito stocks at all costs.
Secondly, tech stocks are really hard to trade now. Don’t you wonder why networking stocks aren’t 1,000% higher from here, with all of the smartphones and bandwidth intensive products? Due to intense competition, there is massive deflation in tech. The cost of goods and services are dropping, while the cost of labor increases. Anyone in the tech space in the market for a good programmer knows what I am talking about. Tech is the quintessential stock pickers market.
Right now I am trying to keep it simple, especially going into the 4th quarter. I want to preserve my gains and build on them via precision guided logic. It is my belief that the European crisis will be papered over. In order to do this, currencies will drop in value and gold/silver will appreciate. It’s simple enough, especially considering the fact that miners have underperformed–greatly–compared to the price of the underlying metals. My other theme is to be long refiners. Their margins are great and America loves gasoline, yet has made it illegal to build new capacity.
Lastly, I like NFLX here, but not into earnings. You fat fuckers aren’t going to stop watching movies and the stock is pricing in disaster times 100. I like it for the $100 roll. Should next quarters earnings show subscription growth, we will look back on this time as an unbelievable opportunity to own one of the great internet franchises. Every upcoming internet company has had set backs, even AMZN, even AAPL.
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V.K.I.G.
?
11-11-11.
The intermediate cycle top for $GOLD is about 10 weeks away while there will be a lot of ups and down as daily cycles come into play, I’m betting on a nice ride into Christmas at the least. Book 45% GDX, 25% SLV, and 10% FCX.
agree on netflix, its service is so worth it, even if it sucks.
but, what if they come out and say “ok, fine, you whining turds, you can rent new and good movies, but you’re renting them for 3, 4, 5 bucks a pop before youw atch”
Their eleventy bajillion subscribers (inc me) would be extremely happy about this.
On point. They could crush every other media vendor should they elect to cut deals with content producers at typical Red Box rental rates (ie average hold period @ $1/day).
If you’re a subscriber, then you probably got the email with a linked video wherein Reed Hastings apologized for the price increase fiasco and agreed to scrap Quickster for the time being?
this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Tn8n5CIPk
That was one of the lamest bits of corporate ‘tard-speak I’ve ever seen. Look at the expression on the guy sitting sitting to him. He looks like he knows exactly how dumb Reed is.
That’s the video that made me short NFLX.
If only the 99% could only eat paper. There are no free lunches
What happned to the 10000 point rally? Im still long cause of that point, DAMN IT I LISTENED TO KID AND NOW IM BROKE
Fly,
You still shorting EXH? I own a position and am a trapped short.
Is it worth holding or best to ditch it now?
I am still short. In the hole and holding.
Thanks
INTC pushing the “next” tech item, the Ultrabook which in a few years will have more sales than the tablet.
So they say which if true would be good for INTC.
Let’s get some articles and more in depth thoughts on Italian situation.
Nice bounce there, but that will be the last time I leave my office (separate bldg. in the woods) to go to the house to take a pee.
Usually just go in the woods but for once I tried to be civilized.
We appreciate the distinguished FL gated community influence on personal behavior.
Watch out for gators, Caddy
Mahareeshi Fly, will FTK roll $10 before the end of the year?
TC,
How did your son do at Q school this year?
Long story short he got to the sectionals of the US Open, missed by a few strokes in getting in and said he was burned out on the mini tours, traveling, etc. for now.
He basically broke even last couple of years,but he had about a half a dozen financial backers so $$ wasn’t the issue.
He didn’t want to go to Q school.
He is now a D1 college assistant golf coach and wants to be a head college golf coach.
We support his decision 100%.
That’s great that he was able to find employment in an area that he loves.
“The cost of goods and services are dropping, while the cost of labor increases.”
Give it a time… Eventually Westernization of Libya and the Middle East, means at the expense of 60% the american taxpayer 40% the US treasury holder, will make for slave labor once again and as they grow the infrustructure the cheap labor force will be able to expand into teaching at universities and eventually technology.
This is what War is all about, afterall. Absorbing the expansion and infrustructure costs that are too expensive for companies to be practical, in the name of “protection”, all so we can sell Bigmac’s and Iphones and Whoppers, and Technology.
Could be a decade or so until then. However, meanwhile BRIC countries perhaps will grow at some point increasing competition in the labor force and decreasing costs.
Additionally, 4+yr college is starting to seem like a fairly obsolete idea to kids who start to notice their older brothers and sisters spent a fortune on college to get into debt and never get a job, so a 2 year tech school may start to seem more practical.
Boy…a VIX close below $30 would be extremely bullish….soooo close…right now at $30.24.
Come on people…BUY BUY BUY!
Loaded up on FXI.
Swami Fly, the taxi medallions TAXI may be a leading indicator – get drunk buy stocks?
I woke up here in Maui, and the iPad2 (which goes against my longstanding PC preference) is acting up.
Thankfully, TD Ameiritrade has a decent little app that actually works better than their PC trading tools.
So, I am 100% cash, cowering in fear since losing my ass last week by being positioned 180 degrees opposite the market every trading day.
Looking to The Fly for resurrection in a cheap stock or via options (would buy puts on BIDU, if not for the Fast Money day traders.
Yikes.
Bobby Boucher:
What’s your opinion on RUT by year end? Do we go over 8, see 840, or even new highs?
Apple is sauce for the long haul. The AOL of the 2010’s.
Steve Jobs is dead. Apple will not be the same, ever.
Although, seems he planned two years ahead with Apple TV, so be careful.
FLY
hey thanks for the Q&A 🙂
“Forth Woman Accuses Herman Cain”…
“Berlusconi Teeters Amid Debt Crisis”…
“The world is not the way they tell you it is”. The first line from ‘Adam Smith’ The Money Game,1967, could not be truer.