There are several things I am looking at, as a tell, for a rally.
1. Share prices of MS, BAC and GS.
2. TLT. If it is up, we go down.
3. UUP. Same as 2.
4. USO.
5. JJC.
6. AAPL.
UPDATE: I bought 25,000 IPGP
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everyone hates the crooked scum at GS…they will go down no MS…F-Lloyd the gay goat licker.
are you still 100% sure that S&P will go under 1000 …
i believe it will, yes.
Yes. But we rally STARTING NOW.
should we long the rally or short the rally ???
not before head fake tuesday,the lure has been cast,head fake tuesday will reel it in,then wednsday you get your balls cut off.
need to make an appointment with my personal plastic surgeon, wonder how much she charges for balls re-attachment ???
both
you have to start beilieveing in your own advice… and fade these rallys.. they are gifts.. the ism was a gift
100%? when do you ever get that? but “the fly” blog headlines saying such increases the percentage.
What about VIX?
I am a 100% sure the market will trade between 0 and 100,000 within the next 12 months.
make sure to mention there is a margin of error of 100% just to cover yourself.
There is definetly no emails going out on alerts.
DXY is surging.
MArket is going nowhere with currencies moving like this.
Banks are dead. Any rally will be temporary.
100% correct.
All TNA positions should be done, now.
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with all due respect Jake, that’s your opinion and it doesn’t make it right because it came from your brain.
It came from the cascade chart, not my brain.
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BAC breaks 6.00
Stopped out $5.95…52 week low didn’t hold…wait for it…crash!
nice call, very nice call !! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH !!!
I am not a day trader.
BANNED
Can you ban paying customers?
If you are, I am refunding you and banning.
send me an email
flybroker at gmail
A man of principle.
NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!
He will make an exception for you…ban away!
Fly,
How about XIV here. 5% of portfolio.
VIX futures are in severe backwardation, this is the worst time to own XIV.
that is EXACTLY correct. Right now VXX is prone to going up just as dramatically as it goes down when we are in steep contango. XIV being slightly worse than the inverse of VXX and you can see about where we are at here.
Right now VIX futures are in 10% backwardation, meaning that every month it gains 10% if VIX futures stay flat. This is quite the opposite case of when it is decaying, and even more dramatic. IF we are in 10% contango (slightly more contango than average over the 5-6 years of monthly vix futures)… and VIX futures stay flat the whole time (technically impossible but whatever)… we have 100%, 90%, 81%, 73%, 67%, 60%, etc. In backwardation the effect is more dramatic at 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.7 etc.
In the fall of 2008 (although VXX and XIV didn’t exist then, I once back calculated the behavior of VXX over the periof from 05 to current), VXX would have SIX BAGGED.
The best use of VXX right now is not a short… unless you beliee that we are about to embark on a sustained rally in the S&P… but a hedge against longs.
Because having 10%/month built in in your favor is, frankly, a good thing.
The irony of these securities is that VXX drops the most when the VIX is low, and rallies the most when the VIX is high, and honestly the sweet spot where its in contango (advantaging a VXX short) AND where the VIX is above its mean (implying that mean reversion favors you) is rare and brief…
you have to short these things when the VIX is low and concoct an intelligent enough hedge to survive the spike without eroding the gains. The hedges on a VXX short right now are extremely expensive, making the sideline the best place to be… unless, as I mentioned, you are using VXX as a hedge.
IPGP .. Photonics? fuck.. FLY actually is building a time machine.
Can I just say something here and hope not to spoil the fun. US stats over the past 3 weeks haven’t been at all that bad. Certainly the economy isn’t going great guns, but the numbers have been okay. Car sales today were great for instance.
It’s macro that is killing the market.
Yeah, it’s known to do that.
Also, have a look at a SPX chart…
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Tend to agree witht the short term rally thesis but not before a decisive break of ES 1101 cash which could very well happen today. So in a nutshell we tank to 1180 today and finish up 1%.
All in a good days work 🙁
^^ 1080
Thought you’d gone mad for a second… Alice in Wonderland style (up is down, etc.)
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Too soon, sir. Too soon.
Stopped out half of my BAC @5.98.
Looks like a short (time wise) swing trading career.
Stopped BAC at $5.95.
We live to swing again Caddy…
Hey guys I just letting you all know I just bought all the CMG , AAPL & EOG shares I could get now its time to sit & wait.
don’t forget the MS with a double pump and a Booyah to boot
watching:
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=ms,bac,gs,tlt,uup,uso,jjc,aapl
those charts are fugly
not my “watchlist” but Fly list to watch for tell of market rally with a chart view
Capitalist tools. Yesterday it was the Brooklyn Bridge tomorrow it’s Trump Towers.
Back to the herbs.
It gets worse. This is merely rebellion foreplay. Better light the herbs.
Lol.
But seriously, the attendance at those rallies is pathetic.
Commencing with Reagan style heavy-arms response…now.
moving everything back to the sideline
The longs (with super tight stops – 1%) I put on this morning all got stop out …
Let’s Chaa Chaa, me and the little US Dollar are dancing around the 50% retrace level off the SPX 07/09 move in the 1120 range. Now there is NO MORE CLAM, its Nymph’s party with her Copper Bubble popping…Chaa Chaa..ISM,Germany,Turkey was a little better, but India, Russia, Tiawan, France, Spain,Holland, Swiss PMI’s sucked…so we still suck bigtime…isn’t this so much fun little Dollar.
oh, and Stupid AAPL, your going down.
And more clues, see US financials, explosion in TX, AMR in a nosedive and how much more do we want? We’ll get it.
AMR Corp. trading halted, single-stock circuit breaker …
I need a portfolio circuit breaker for my fucking portfolio …
need to buy a few new iphone 5 to support AAPL
currently down 6 bucks …
Jose, lol, hey your EXH that you asked about did kiss only the 10.06 level and now is back to its free fall. Did you notice fly added it as a short after you asked about……Ruggyup..this 50% level was the last support 2008 SPX had before its freefall.
the slow grind lower is concerning
where is art cashin when you need him?
currently 20% long, 80% cash
5% gold miners, 5% silver miners, 5% coal miners and 5% biotechnology, even my 20% long are getting battered relentlessly and mercilessly …
Hero has lost a dollar in a week.I just doubled down.This has officially become a takeover target.DD on YMB!
VHC!
if you look at vlo or wnr 3 month chart can’t tell them apart.
The Anatomy of a Rally may eventually be retitled to The Autopsy of a Rally.
tna has been taken to the shed…
When the robots tune into this carnage, it’s lights out!!!!
Add Rule 42, plus no down-ticks and the new Buffet and Rumsfeld Rules adage about not knowing what we cannot, by def., not know undisclosed or undiscovered info in arc-tangent to, no way spin bots go down with Hopium in such swagger stati.
Nah dawg. 2012 fo show.
WNR down 4%, shit …
Been loading up on FXP for a while now and feeling great
Get in the funnel
Sentiment is sure to follow…patience required
SPX testing low of the year…will she hold?
Time machine out of the shop yet?
FAZmobile locked and ready to soar
Who is hoarding all the gal damn silver? I will hunt you down in your luxury double wide trailer and proceed to torch you and your precious metals to the ground!
HERO tangibale book value 6.85 trading at 2.57 down almost 12% today.HERO could be easily get bought out.
I love these prices!
Fry – I rold you I was no wonger going to buy your bullshit ramerican goods. There will be no rarry.
sorry for typos!
Selling my SPY puts for 100-200% gains, reducing TZA and covering 50% of shorts here. I expect a flush out below 1100 and a quick rally to 1150 this week.