Aside from the fundamental thesis behind the refiners, I am having a very difficult time finding stocks to buy here. The trends are fucking woeful and have the distinct look of being “on the other side of the mountain.”
I’ve looked through all of my screens and all I find is silver/gold. However, the problem with silver is the outside chance a rip your face off and skull-fuck you rally derails the metals, at least temporarily. I like both AG and EXK. But the last thing I want to do is hedge myself out of a good rally.
NVDA is tempting, as well as TZOO, VHC, ARMH and LNG. At the moment, I am much more interested in procuring conch ceviche, than gambling on a somber Friday afternoon.
In summary, I am likely to make do with what I have. Although my upside will be less than before, should we rally, my downside is somewhat contained. Going out a month or so, should the economy remain in flux, I see no reason to be long equities, aside from the temporary hyper-cocaine rallies.
As always, things can change materially. I am not about sticking to an ideology, but raping the trading ranges. At the moment, like it or not, the rubberband is tightly coiled back, readying to spring forward.
NOTE: My year to date gains are around +6%
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From the Sprott website:
…”We are of the view that the appetite for sovereign paper promises will continue to decline, and such promises will continue to lose their value relative to real assets, like gold. What needs to be understood is that paper promises (sovereign debt and fiat currencies) are ‘faith-based assets’. They have no inherent value. They have perceived value in that they have historically been convertible into real assets. With their value decreasing against real assets, however, we are of the view that holders of faith-based assets will be increasingly unwilling to store their wealth in them. This will drive up the prices of real assets versus faith-based assets, a process which we have already begun to see en masse.”
yep,and margin increases just pissed more people off into buying physical. it’s almost a joke,cme and comex shot their own toe off
Fucking fuckfaces. The yield curve in absolute terms is hitting multi-year lows!! What’s the 10-year at again?? If anything, gold at these levels is trading on “faith.”
Why would you think gold would trade up if interest rates were higher?
Gold is trading on fear and part of that fear is devaluation fear.
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Gold wouldn’t trade higher with higher rates. My main point was that paper assets are doing the exact opposite of what they’re calling.
I completely understand gold is trading higher on devaluation fear and gold is the primary conduit for that thesis. However, 50% of gold consumption is for jewelry, 10% for industry, and the rest is “investment.” It’s rather obvious its current value now is because of excess demand in one of those streams. As such, the investment portion creates real profits as long as someone is there to bid it higher than the prevailing interest rate for your objective holding period, whereby that becomes decreasingly less as the value increases. Once the last major sovereign debt crisis is hashed out, gold should come down.
VHC VHC VHC
Judge Davis just released the trial schedule for the two cases (vs. Csco et all, and vs. Mitral et all) and ever so quietly threw them together on the same date. Now the defendants have half the time they thought to argue their cases, which may encourage a settlement. Further, if any of the patent reexam requests are denied by the USPTO in the next few weeks or months, expect a cocaine fueled exploding heart attack rally.
Fly, I assume MCP is grouped with CLF, etc. as poor performers due to econ slowdown. I am stuck in 2000 shares. Bite bullet for another day? The story is a phenom but performnce and group looks poor??
I would not be long MCP, only because I don’t trust the multiple on those fuckers. Everything is discounted now. You can easily swap out for something better.
We just have to sit and wait to see what the Clam will do next Friday.
Maybe. But, that’s not a strategy that excites me. Waiting for an action by the Fed Chair doesn’t appeal to me as an active manager. From an old song, “fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly ………….” Government appointees have not run my life yet and I have no plans to surrender.
ruggy…lol, well I am betting the Clam will be wishy washy because I have his spine in my hands, along with EU’s too….so I sit and wait with my shorts..I am very patient for my “Copper-geddon”
Your call. I respect that. Am hoping that while you wait your shorts aren’t unzipped by a Clam Hand. Cheers.
Ruggy, The Clam fucked me last September, he doesn’t have the power to do it again to me this year. And if he tries, at least this year I have learned that it is not “priced in” when the news hit, perfect market theory is bullshit ..I didn’t know that last Sept.
Nymph…this time ben the impaler wont do anything…the ball is in the ECB’s court…unless he would like to infuse the Piigs banks…I see nothing but explanations from him and excuses….check your followers list on twitter..I am following you now..and I can post some of the most concise fundy info around..IMO..from a few forex macro G-7 strategists…I trade only using Ichimoku in forex..but breakouts without a fundemental push will stall…so basically Im forced to follow fundementals from all the majors now..
nymph…correction on only Ichimoku….I also use 20ema , 89ma and RSI…and thats it…lol
ry, is that you?
“The Clam fucked me last September,”
Nymph, were you at Jackson Hole?
She sometime’s goes by Jackson. That’s what Ben B meant when he said “I clam fucked Jackson’s hole last September”.
FXtravert…..I will get over to twitter. I love the 89MA and use the 21 MA besides a handful more, love the cloud too but don’t use it as much as I should…I use a lot of fibo in my stuff. Are you RY or Shawn? Love to hear what the strategists say. …………..For Europe, such a soap opera, the entire thing is such a mess. For fundies, you know I love the stuff of course……..Mrkcbill, lol, good one…go2mars, Ms. Jackson if your Nasty.
no not ryan or shawn..ryan showed you the 89ma….I showed you the fib ma’s..5,21,55,144,233 above that isn’t relevant to me…no big….not going to be confused with others
….but I do know ryan , for a long time…he is trading 30y bonds only right now…gave him this site the other day…which every trader should have bookmarked…………… http://www.traders-library.com/ …
I know you say don’t offer advice, so this isn’t advice. Just observing that silver has been catching a bid when gold goes up, and also catching an even larger bid when stocks go up.
Okay, I’m off to the beach.
Does the iPad get reception at the beach?
Came to the same conclusion.
Taking DGP and AGQ for a short ride here for a pop.
When I saw silver jumped to $42 it reminded me of the sharp move to $50.
I will sell both positions if gold nears $2,000 or silver nears $50 – or a kinetic action is called against Venezuela for requesting the return of his tons of gold from London.
Most likely staying in the position until next week when we see some market stabilization.
Can anyone explain why XIV is down today while $VIS is also down?
Thanks
I ment $VIX
Because that ETN does not track the spot price of the VIX, but rather the futures prices. Same goes with VXX, TVIX, UNG, and all other exchange traded notes. There is no vehicle that tracks the spot price of the VIX, or oil, natural gas, etc.
I say shut it down this PM and go pound your conch.
Probably the only sensible analysis/advice given today by anyone on this blog.
“the rubberband is tightly coiled back, readying to spring forward” that is unless it snaps in an epic failure!
Anyone that calls themselves a finance professional should see the movie Rollover.
Excerpt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUsj7EdZigM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1aQ-XGWors (this explains Venezuela’s move)
From the movie: “Gold is over $2,000…that will be cheap tonight”. “Riots throughout Europe”. Arabs pulling their wealth from banks and going to gold.
Was this a movie or a blueprint? Interesting parallels. For those that do not want to be in the middle east, a light bulb should go on regarding the petro dollar. I wonder if there is a tug of war right now between the West with oil pricing and OPEC nations moving to gold.
Cooler heads should prevail, but Cramer looked pretty nervous yesterday talking about European banks and that he wouldn’t go out on a limb again saying Bear Stearns is fine.
thats why im in gold, flys call for goofy week end is a good one
I would be a little cautious with gold. IB issued a statement saying it’s likely that margins will be going up over the next few days.
cme has said monday i believe
Shorting Gold here and buying platinum is a good trade I believe. Remember the contract size of platinum is 1/2 a gold contract so just make sure the mkt values match up correctly haha. I am talking futures, not sure if that’s what you trading…. platinum is 30x more rare than gold and actually has been out performing gold…. food for thought.
My FAZmobile been stuck in second gear just got into third if I can get up to cruzing speed I’ll be looking for banksters to run over ala Death Race 2000.
this is sad and funny
The last few times Fly has taken a vacation, the market has crashed.
Upon his triumphant return to NY the market will have the confidence to get long and strong.
Nothing to worry about. The Clam is going to bail all the weak hands out with a QE3 miracle next week at Jackson Hole. Just buy the fucking dip!
What do you guys think about X? I also bought a little NVDA
Thanks,
zzz
X good here, but try STLD.
If you really liked DECK at $74 your gonna love it at $72!
rub it in? this doesnt help
I also liked it at 91. It’s so hard being a mere mortal amongst all of you super human specimens.
I see no reason to start buying before QE3 is anounced.
buy rumor sell the news. hopefully rumors start swirling around about qe3 over the weekend
You want it both ways?
SPACE ALIEN MAGICIAN… and mere mortal? 😉
_______
I don’t know why I find this comment so awesome…
In a painfully funny kind of way
Fox News anchor apologizes to Chris Brown and his fans:
http://youtu.be/TOjUKwoHUyw
Nice link, Andy Levy, star rising.
Friggin’ funny.
You were one of his greatest hits
Shiraz with ceviche, Fly.
I got LONGER into the Close ! fwiw
I remain nicely HEDGED … thankyou very much !
I will sleep well !!!
.
Look at TLT (long term bonds) here, they are higher than at any time since the beginning of 2009 despite credit rating issues and record low interest rates while gold just hit a new record high.
If fixed income is smart money, this is signaling recession and we are in trouble.
Anybody else noticing this?
Looks like the Fed will be forced to provide more stimulus. With ZIRP to 2013 there will be no real return on short term government bonds. Why not park sideline money into gold and silver instead of cash or short term bonds? Venezuela gold could take two months for delivery so we might see a pullback in the interim to shake holders out of positions to free up physical. If they are smart they will realize the wealth effect does not care which investment vehicle is chosen and allow all assets to inflate including gold and silver which could then be leveraged as capital to invest in other assets like stocks and US treasuries (Gov approved investments).
The only thing standing in the way of the Fed launching more easing is precious metals and political mood. They have proved that they can set interest rates along the curve, but gold price has been more elusive (Larry Summer’s original paper on the gold paradox stated you could print as much as you wanted if you could hold gold and interest rates steady – prompting Dick Cheney to state deficits don’t matter). With little prospect for growth, capital flees to safety for preservation in the face of inflation. The only thing that brought the price of gold down by Volker in the 80’s was raising interest rates to 20% – but the Fed has promised ZIRP until 2013 so gold should keep going up.
Apoc
Your right but the “smart money” as acting retarded because treasuries aren’t worth the paper they are printed on.
Why anyone would want to own 10 and 30 year notes at these interest rates is beyone me. The risk here is insolvency not inflation.
Treasuries are the short of a lifetime. The timing of it is difficult. I continue to increase my short positions in treasuries. The fear trade has created some nice entries. I don’t see how the 10 year remains at 2% as our government continues to drown in more and more debt.
I hope we get more panic next week. I’ll just buy more long dated TLT and TBT PUT’s at better prices.
Anyone who lived through the Volker years knows what eventually will happen to treasuries. Inflation is coming and so is our insolvency. Just look at Greece if you want to see what are bond market will look like a few years from now.
if you think USA is going to be insolvent, than you need to be buying guns and ammo….
theedge111,
Lots of reasons to make a bet on TLT coming down – but are you sure you want to buy volatility, why not sell the calls? OK, their pricing reflects everyone in TLT writing calls trying to enhance their yield and the small interest payments are also reflected… still, to be an outright buyer of volatility seems a bit tough – could you post an example of a trade?
Buying TBT puts is a hedge I suppose, but, despite all the decay inherent in TBT, it’s a huge amount of volatility to be buying.
To match 2008 action, longer dated paper could appreciate by another 5% fairly easily.
there are some really good blog/post here, by smart people, but there r some who r childish,and unthoughtful. how many thumbs down can i get?