iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,014 Blog Posts

Smashing Up Against a Brick Wall

With WNR down more than 6% now, I am reminded of the rout in my silver stocks when I was visiting North Carolina back in February. Upon landing, I was getting nailed in AG and EXK to the point where I was close to booking the losses and moving on. However, I kept my cool and ended up minting money on both ideas.

WNR, as well as all of the refiners, has a lot of hot money shareholders, people who only care about making coin right now. I’ve seen these people before; they sashay in and out of stocks only for the decadent pleasure of it all, nothing of substance. Let me remind you that WNR, VLO and HOC are operating under ideal scenarios, from a business perspective. Aside from recent share price performance, these are great businesses to be long. All hot sectors go through periods of adjustment, through panic. But if the fundamentals are solid, eventually, you will be rewarded.

Specific to the pinless hand grenade action today: I can only tell you to position defensively, so that you are not flushed out with some margin liquidation. As you know, I have 250%+ of my personal in WNR, which has undergone a real 13% correction times 2.5 this week. In other words, I am barely up for the year. This is NOT the sort of investment style you should be copying. It’s reckless and foolish.

Nevertheless, I am literally playing with the houses money, so there is a certain degree of security in that.

For managed accounts, I am very overweight refiners, specifically WNR and CVI. Thus far, in 2011, I’ve had some really good runs, only to give it back during periods of correction. Frankly, assessing my performance year to date, I’ve been abysmal. I sold out of plenty of good stocks too low, like OPEN and FTK. And, I held onto losers too long, like MOTR and BORN. These are classic mistakes that are easily avoided using standard stop losses.

Bottom line: I am likely going to shake things up a bit, in an effort to find my groove again. As for the refiners, I am not selling out due to VLO’s issues. Aside from hedges, the underlying EPS for their qt. was $1.00, .70 cents better than expectations. With crack spreads sustaining $25, it’s only a matter of time before these fuckers turn around again.

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93 comments

  1. A Monkey with a Six Foe, a Cold 40, and Sum Bitches
    A Monkey with a Six Foe, a Cold 40, and Sum Bitches

    So first that it almost hurts my WNR!

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  2. Charlie Sheen

    WNRing….

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  3. Growly

    Not to be picky or anything. but I think you mean ‘rout’ not ‘route’. Also, still holding all my WNR.

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  4. Mike

    adding on dips?? anyone?? Bueller?

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    • Green Machine

      Thinking of adding a tad more. This over-correction shall also be corrected.

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      • Mike

        me too……misery loves company!!!!!! you pull the trigger yet??

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        • bot sum

          dipper mcflipper here

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          • Green Machine

            Not yet, I missed my opportunity at the open while doing other trades.
            Playing the dip within the long play must satisfy my rule of 3% less than my initial entry point.
            My initial entry = 16.95

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  5. moolaheaven

    We believe in you Fly!

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  6. Berniecornfeld

    Thanks Fly…great reminder

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  7. Prospectus

    The Fly always wins, even when he appears to be losing, badly. He also plays chess, with intricately planned moves designed to ultimately checkmate your 4 digit Zecco account. The game must develop over time. If you want an instant gratification Rock Paper Scissors match, then you have no business following Grandmaster Fly in a trade. It could take months AND MORE to reach ultimate victory. Therefore, to all the wizegize (sic) that will come out of the woodwork today, You have two options:

    1. Put on a suit and act like a fucking gentleman for a change,

    2. Attend the “Orgy of Trollz and Lulz” on your nearest Yahoo message board with the rest of your kind.

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  8. Kwame Brown

    WNR to 20 still.

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    • A Monkey with a Six Foe, a Cold 40, and Sum Bitches
      A Monkey with a Six Foe, a Cold 40, and Sum Bitches

      I got wood just reading that.

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  9. The Fly

    Someone pass the viagra.

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  10. BlindReadAnt

    25 % in junk bond portfolios may provide life long yields as a back stop. Just a thought. WNR 14 June puts to cover? Unsolicited advice may be worthy of a STFU, hopefully not a VKing ban though. Please. Cheers!

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  11. Aventura11

    I mentioned yesterday that there was a suspicious spike on VXX not seen on a while. Now it is up almost 3.5% and commodities are not doing well. Two possible things going on:
    1.- There is a major announcement that has been leaked
    2.- It is a trap.

    As for WNR I did mention that insiders are selling. Now This might be a buying opportunity if indeed earnings are going to be good. For the conservative trader you might want to wait after earnings and move in or stay away.

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    • Hovis

      Hmm… do you think it might have anything to do with the Fed conference today super sleuth???

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  12. Baron de Rothschild
    Baron de Rothschild

    WNR makes sense. Just like XLE, XOP and IYE, which I bought this morning and are already heading down the crapper, make sense. What they are not making is money. It is a rigged market in which present and future profits mean nothing, and where the quant boys apply their highly leveraged, free Fed created dollars means everything. Insolvent BAC is up strong this morning.and oil is down, as oil traders wait to see if the Fed will be raising rates. Unless Lloyd, Jamie and Jeff have given Ben permission, that will never happen.

    Fly, one of the toughest lessons to learn is that being right doesn’t always make you money, but being connected to TPTB, always does. I wish I had the power to fit them all with some cement shoes.

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  13. ruggyup

    Catch a falling knife,
    Put it in your pocket,
    Save it for a rainy day.

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  14. Alucard

    I have exited the trade and to commerate this horrible trade I
    have had a pedicle flap procedure from WNR and attached to my forehead .

    I knew this was going badly when it became obvious that Fly was unable to shower .
    How can one possible think straight while smelling so badly .

    Good grief , one shower for five people and I ,on the other hand have at least
    five showers for each individual . Oh well , the day is young , let me take a quick shower
    and get back to work making real money……..SPY 135 weekly calls for this Friday
    should recoup this ghastly error .

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    • The Fly

      I have more than one shower. You sold the bottom

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    • jimmy_two_times

      must have been your trade at 10:15 !!

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      • inandout

        I’m Pretty sure that was a lot of short covering at the lows of day along with some buyers probably also.
        There has been a lot of about power outages in Texas yesterday and today at refiners and chemical plants. Not sure if Western was affected at all though Valero ,Marathon, and BP were.
        I don’t know if it was on the news, because I don’t watch the news anymore.

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      • Alucard

        Time stamp @ 9:57 to 9.59……….not too late to bang 135s

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    • go2mars

      Still living at the rec center heh Alu?

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    • tw

      Would any or all of those showers be “golden”? not that there is anything wrong with that……

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  15. Bullish

    I will be lighting candles and eating a gourmet bacon cheeseburger for lunch today as my hero, Mr. Ben Bernanke will be doing a very special Q&A session today.

    This is better than Christmas Eve…

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  16. WTF

    I have just jumped on WNR. No homo. Just patiently waiting for the kill. I liked Fly’s fundamentals thesis when he spoon-fed it to us. Now’s the time. Keep calm and carry on, the earnings shall prevail (of course if the management won’t fuck up with the hedges.)

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    • Homo Matt

      I’ve been riding the WNR for a while, quite homo. I love me some WNR!

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  17. Jeff

    “Kobe, tell me how my WNR taste”
    –Shaq

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  18. Fly Leech

    Just increased my WNR ownership to 10%. I’m breaking rules for this one.

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  19. shipwrecked&alone
    shipwrecked&alone

    Earnings calendar: MRO 5-3, FTO,WNR,HOC,ALJ 5-5, CVI 5-9. Maybe MArathon can help provide clarity since they are sourcing from some of the same areas. This is from Yahoo and not confirmed from the cos websites.

    Did I leave out any?

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  20. AlphaBetaBanjo

    Gas Futures………telling the tale here

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  21. go2mars

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Venus_Project

    Anyone care to critique this for me? Looks pretty good to me based on a cursory examination. Anyone out there familiar with it?

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    • Jakegint

      Not exactly an empiricist is he?

      The Venus Project was founded on the idea that poverty is caused by the stifling of progress in technology, which itself is caused by the present world’s profit-driven economic system.[5][broken citation] The advance of technology, if it were carried on independent of its profitability, Fresco theorizes, would make more resources available to more people thereby reducing corruption and greed, and instead make people more likely to help each other.[6][7] Fresco advocates against a money-based economy in favor of what he refers to as a resource-based economy.

      Run screaming. FYI, absolutely nothing “carries on” independendent of profitability.

      Zero.

      _____________

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      • riggedgame

        The CAUSE of poverty is technology and automation. The robots take over
        the decent jobs, labor costs go down, the CEO’s get record bonuses
        and the working man gets fucked.

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        • go2mars

          That’s bullshit. Technology is your friend. You have a computer for example. I bet you even wear shoes. Hypocrite.

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        • go2mars

          Would nuclear fusion electricity generation be a bad thing in your opinion?

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          • Manhatten II Project
            Manhatten II Project

            Here’s a plan:
            Go to all of the countries that have insufficient power generation and / or, oil, natural gas, uranium, etc. Ask them to invest in a sustainable fusion power generation project.

            The ocean has a virtually infinite supply of heavy water to produce unlimited energy. Hire the best from around the globe.

            Who would be against this? oil, gas, and power companies.

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          • matrix

            ocean is not unlimited at all. Eventually us humans will consume the planet like a cancer cell, and the desire to use the healthy cell known as an earth’s own productive capabilities to grow plant life and replenish water supply will be used over and over again to allow our population to grow, just like a cancer cell is parasitic using a bodies healthy cell to produce more cancerous cells to attach themselves as well to healthy cells. Then soon we will eventually all consume the healthy cell and go on throughout the universe infecting other planets with our kind. Give it 300 years max and even if we convert all ocean water to drinkable water we run out.

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          • matrix

            the healthy cell the humans consume is known as planet earth and the other cells are other planets. eventually we will be our own undoing.

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          • Jakegint

            Oh for goodness sakes. No matter how many times Thomas Malthus’s technophobic (and misanthropic) theories are proven wrong, they still flourish in the minds of permabears.

            Technology conserves resources and makes life better, not worse. The poorest man today lives better than Andrew Carnegie did one hundred and twenty years ago.

            _________

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          • go2mars

            Exactly!

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        • cardiffgiant

          The cause of poverty is GOV interventionism in all its forms. One such form directly contributing to poverty is the fact that our stock of money and rate of interest are centrally planned! Yes, just like a communist nation, we have central economic planning right here in the U.S.A.

          Don’t you know anything about “Human Action” and the spontaneous order that emerges from cooperative man when not interfered with by the STATE? How about the great division of labor phenomenon that helps to facilitate this order and cooperation? Get educated fool…

          http://mises.org/

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        • Jakegint

          The cause of poverty is ignorance, nothing less. Automation brings prices down, not labor costs. In fact, automation is a result of high labor costs. But labor is still a scarce commodity, and an educated work force is one of the biggest incentives to attract investment capital.

          _________

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        • Special Sauce

          “The CAUSE of poverty is technology and automation. The robots take over
          the decent jobs, labor costs go down”

          So said the buggy whip maker.

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      • go2mars

        Good point. I was assuming he meant resource based economy as in resources such as precious metals or corn as money. Anything but a debt-based monetary system. And I’m big-time in favor of pushing the technological edge.

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  22. Jakegint

    It’s not like my mother didn’t warn me…

    She said: “You keep taking Fly’s sloppy seconds and one day you’ll wake up with a burning WNR!”

    ___________

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  23. charlie

    Speaking of $FTK, where do you think it’s going from here?

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  24. Trading Nymph

    OK in 2008, we were told that Oil was running out and we were in short supply. Late April the US Dollar was at 71ish lows and we were waiting for Fed to cut rates……when they did and said they were going to wait for awhile, Dollar Rallied and Oil fell off cliff along with Steel, Coal, etc…..so how can anyone say that this commodity rally is driven by demand issues. Either they lie to benefit their positions or they are stupid.

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    • Trading Nymph

      Can you tell I am getting prepared for the Pain of having to listen to the Clam with his smugness tell “Main Street” that all of this commodity rally is just demand…..

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      • Yabollox

        You buy into the manipulation narrative?

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      • Bullish

        Nymph – There is no inflation. Did’t you just tell us how you bought designer clothing for pennies on the dollar.

        Mr. Bernanke to Nymph: Read my lips, no new inflation… it’s simply transitory. Stop talking shit about me or I will jack up the cost of tanning oil so fast you will be forced to look like an Alaskan.

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        • Trading Nymph

          lol….Not MY tanning Oil, lol. Watching the commodites on a daily basis on a global level…there is no doubt in my mind, Farmers are now Miners, Stockpiles everywhere….If Ben woud do anything to support our dollar you would see how quick things would reverse…

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          • Trading Nymph

            Also Bullish…We have a huge disconnect…like designer clothes that can’t sell…Gasoline, Oil Prices Sky Rocket on no real demand. People in Calif are talking about riding bikes, etc, there has to be a tipping point?

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          • Bullish

            Perfect, we can solve the obesity problem at the same time. Bernanke is truely genius.

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          • Trading Nymph

            lol…Ben B Show is on.

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          • Gas Guzzler

            Nymph: tell us how to bank coin from all of your ramblings? Any positions?

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          • Trading Nymph

            Gas…It’s longterm, Its a study of a Bubble, from start to finish…You can play the bubble that I spotted since early 2009….just tell me how it pops…I need to learn that.

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          • Bullish

            That bubble you keep referring to is actually a Bull Market. Mark that down in your study.

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          • go2mars

            If you were short copper since 2009, you’d be about 1 inch tall.

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          • Trading Nymph

            Been short Material since mid 2009..Have to learn how this puppy ends. BTW, this is such bot trading…for day to day stuff…check this out, I wrote this in my trading diary blog….”21 hours ago

            Well, the Bias is now to the upside for three more days…For Advance -Decline Volume for tomorrow we have a resistance of 360,000,000″…our closing volume on the NYSE was 355,000,000 ish….such a bot thing. But OMG I have to see how this longterm bubble ends.

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    • Po Pimp

      Guess what, fears of running out of oil have been around since we first started drilling for tthe stuff back in the 1860’s. I don’t prescribe to the peak oil theory, but I do acknowledge that the remaining oil is difficult to obtain thus costs are higher.

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  25. Donkey Dick

    Added to my WNR today even though I already had a pretty good size!

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  26. Meglodon

    WNR getting boofed no big deal old Bernacke out witha stick save,, they gonna make more foreingers starve in order to bury the mistakes of big banks and wall street… sickening man,, any how , oil will be fine as a consequence

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  27. Wilco

    My hot dog has a first name, its W-E-S-T-E-R-N…

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  28. Donkey Dick

    WNR beginning to rise!

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  29. razorsedge

    we will teach those chineese , even if we have to starve the whole world to prove it,,,

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  30. razorsedge

    clne,,,,the other white meat,,,

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  31. Donkey Dick

    WNR peeling back earlier shrinkage!

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  32. Quint

    That’s why you can’t watch the screens all day. I played around a golf this morning, just got back…didn’t even know or care that WNR was down 6%…now it’s down 1.6%, which is nothing.

    Buy and Hold?

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  33. razorsedge

    tradingnymph,,,u nailed it its demand that driving comds up,,,,,lol

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  34. Donkey Dick

    Anyone holding TER going into earnings tonight?

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  35. matrix

    the bearded clam speaks!

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    • smith

      How can inflation help the economy anyways without wage inflation. Cost of living goes up for food and fuel and there’s no room left to pay for housing. Wage inflation is needed otherwise toxic balance sheets remains on the books of banks and government run entities like Fanny+freddo. If debt can’t continue to move and company borrowing money doesn’t actually produce real things that can be consumed, how in the world is this a good result? In other words, it’s good the fed is ending QE2 for housing stocks, even though the market might not figure it out for awhile.

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  36. go2mars

    Thinking of backing up the Oscar Meyer bun.

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    • ruggyup

      The image of bun backing up to the Oxy Mayer weenie is repugnant to bulls, not so much for baers I guess.

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      • go2mars

        As in backing up the Oscar Meyer bun to load up a big fat WNR and drive away with it; bringing joy to zillions of fat people at sporting events.

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  37. jimmie

    pleb jimmy had a buy order for 400 shares of agq today at 315

    just got back and it looks like it got filled

    i’m going to drink a 6 pack of lucky beer!

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  38. Quint

    Wow, I really thought the Fed meeting and Bernanke press conference would cause a panic in the market.

    How ridiculous does that thought seem now?

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