The Wikileaks guy is now in Wikigaol. The Federal Reserve is losing lots of coin, as rates spiral higher. At the same time, munis, specifically California, are getting smashed again. Inside of The PPT, I keep an index called Risk Appetite, which serves to gauge the appetite for risk, worldwide, via exchange traded ETF’s. Needless to say, the chart looks grim. The cost of borrowing is on the rise (see TLT) and The Bearded Clam needs to fix that shit, ASAP. As a tax paying American, I demand upward surges in my equities, at all times and forever.
You do not need to compare yourself to me. Hell, you do not need to read this fucking blog, yet you do. Do you know why? Because you are attracted to greatness, which is what “The Fly” represents here daily. I warned you to raise cash earlier today; but you chose to listen to some ham and egger on twitter instead. Look, the stock market is not done going higher. However, we are long overdue a correction to the tune of 5%. I predict oil will retrace to the low $80’s, before spring-boarding higher, effectively water-boarding shorts.
Into this misery, I bulked up on my SCO position.
UPDATE: I sold out of Q, raising cash position to 42%
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCJ5XYi4rdU&feature=more_related 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Do I win a T Shirt or something?
You get spared when I start interning all of you readers.
ok FIG
We just had a 5% correction prior to last week
Fly, why not HAWK instead of HERO? HAWK is nearly debt free despite losing $ on their idle/moribound drillships but they still have value with rising permits in the Gulf or as scrap if it comes to that.
Don’t know Fly’s thoughts, but here are a few things to consider:
1) HAWK is 100% tied to the Gulf of Mexico whereas HERO has a significant international presence. Diversification.
2) HAWK’s fleet is made-up of low-end stripped down jack-ups. Their average dayrate is only $41K / day. HERO’s rigs currently under contract have an average dayrate of $61K. HERO has some semi-subs which get higher day rates but HAWK is strictly jack-ups only.
3) HERO has $178.6 mln of revenues under contract. HAWK has $11.9 mln.
4) Average contract duration remaining for HAWK is 38 days. HERO comes in at 95 days.
If HAWK did have to resort to selling their rigs they would not be able to get a favorable price. Current jack-up utilization rates are running about 44% at the moment. There are a bunch of jack-ups being built in ship yards now with no contracts. Supply is there already.
Disclosure: No position in either.
Third quarter of 2010 average revenue per day for owned rigs decreased to $43,200 compared to $93,300 in the third quarter of 2009 due to the after effects of the Macondo blowout, the loss of higher dayrate contracts in Mexico, and the economic downturn.
But, according to their CEO, “The recently issued Notice to Lessees G05 may provide incremental work for our fleet over the next few years as idle wells must be plugged and abandoned. Much of this additional work will likely require a jackup rig (however, these P&A operations will also require permits issued by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement).”
He also noted that “New drilling permit approvals increased during the month of October, and it appears that the approval process might continue to improve over the next several months, resulting in more demand for our services.” So their day rates may start to improve.
And, they have “engaged Simmons & Company International to explore strategic alternatives for the company in order to examine all possible options to best realize the potential of our assets and maximize value to our shareholders.”
They have 20 rigs … one of which was just sold for $14.6 million … if all were sold at the same price the net would be $292MM added to $41MM cash yields $333MM less $18MM debt equates to $315MM or about $26+/sh (12mm shs issued) … pretty close to the $380MM reported for shareholders’ equity for the current Qtr – On September 30, 2010, Seahawk had total assets of $504.9 million, stockholders’ equity of $380.4 million, and short-term debt of $17.9 million.
They are burning cash but equity is currently about $31/share with the stock @ $7! Another FTK? Hero’s debt/equity ratio = 94 though you are correct about their cash flow being much better than Hawk’s currently.
Thnx for the opinion ….
Here’s the current Fleet Report:
Dayrate- Rig Name- Rig Type- Location- Status- Client- ($US/day)- Days- Completion-Comments
U.S. MARKETED (9)
SEAHAWK 3000-300’MC-US GOM
A) Contracted/Finalizing Repairs-Energy XXI-$55,000-14 days Permitted. Contract anticipated to start late December
B) Contracted-Badger-$55,000-40 days-Permitted
C) Contracted-Arena-$60,000-120 days-Permits pending for 5 well program
SEAHAWK 2602-250’MC-US GOM
Contracted-Arena-$40,000-65 days to 11-Feb-2011- Contract commenced on 2-Dec-10. Prior contract with Energy XXI completed on 7-Oct-10
SEAHAWK 2601- 250’MC- US GOM
Contracted- Chevron- $45,550- 70 days to 16-Feb-2011- Permitted. Dayrate may fluctuate based on contract personnel requirements
SEAHAWK 2600- 250’MC- US GOM
Contracted- Tarpon- $40,000- 43 days to 20-Jan-2011- Contract commenced on 21-Nov-10. Prior well with Tarpon completed on 22-Oct-10
SEAHAWK 2505- 250’MS- US GOM
Available-Sale of rig for $14.55 million contingent upon third-party contract award
SEAHAWK 2504- 250’MS- US GOM
Available
SEAHAWK 2007- 200’MC- US GOM
Contracted-Castex-$34,000- 75 days to 21-Feb-2011- Contract commenced on 8-Dec-10. Prior contract with Breton completed on 21-Oct-10
SEAHAWK 2004- 200’MC- US GOM
Contracted- Walter Oil & Gas- $32,000- 43 days to 20-Jan-2011- Contract commenced on 7-Nov-10. Prior contract with Bandon Oil & Gas completed on 6-Nov-10
SEAHAWK 2001- 200’MC- US GOM
Contracted- ENI- $32,000- 30 days- Permit pending. Prior contract with Petroquest completed on 22-Oct-10
U.S. COLD STACKED (11)
SEAHAWK 2500- 250’MS- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2501- 250’MS- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2502- 250’MS- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2003- 200’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2006- 200’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2503- 250’MS- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2005- 200’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2008- 200’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2002- 200’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 2000- 200’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
SEAHAWK 800- 80’MC- US GOM- Cold Stacked
The number of days to complete the program are estimated for U.S. well-to-well contracts. The actual number of days contracted may vary from this estimate.
FLEET STATUS REPORT AS OF DECEMBER 8, 2010
I told you guys that I was right. We are due for a correction!
Ban him !!!!!!!!!!
Nigel Farage is awesome!!! Just watched a bunch of his speeches to the EU on Youtube. In my mind there are a few great thinkers out there in the public eye who quietly work for goodness more than for greed. I add him to the list. Elon Musk, Ron Paul, Fly, and now introducing Nigel Farage.
Cash at 50% now – hybrid at 3.17
Obama rips into reporter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LA9WmVslLw&feature=player_embedded#!
Now the far left won’t like him as much either. Who else is there?
At least he has his health, his family, and his Allah.
Lol. Indeud. Allah…..good one, ye patriot.
You are both fucking idiots. Seriously, are you that stupid? I realize the internets are fille with dipshits and 18 year olds. I am just happy that I am far superior to you. I fucking hate racists.
Gotta credit Bama for doing a decent job of keeping the serfs from picking up their torches and pitchforks.
JADED! Thats what I see each and every time he talks.
Indeud!!!
Jaded. Arrogant. Condescending. Panderer, Stoic. Mistakenly Pragmatic. Overly given to Gravitas.
All those apply nicely ………….
Obama tics instead of tacks
Funny how he gets when someone in the media actually throws a hardball question at him, he swung and missed than went to the clubhouse.
i jumped on board this morning with oil over 90.. holding 15,000 SCO avg 10.54. there’s a gap below at 84.11 where i will sell and reassess.. oil loves to fill them gaps.
Yes, it is true. I am in Wikigaol with other Wikis. They put me here because they said I had a Wikicondom that had a Wikileak. I guess you could say that my Wikidicky was exposed. Wikinikki didn’t mind so why should she?
I have named my roomate Wickimickey. The food here sucks. Dinner will be Wikifish and Wikichips with Wikipie. The Wikibangers and Wikimash is delicious though. Entrtainment tonight will be the telly and The Real Housewives From WikiLand. I have to be quiet when I talk to Wikimickey because I believe the CIA has bugged my Wikigaol. Must be the idea of Wikihillary. Bye from Wikigaol.
Comedy at its finest…
Wicki, I’m home!
Thanks,Wikiquint. I was going to write that my Wikidicky became Wikisticky but I am afraid of Fly’s censors. Wikijeremy is scarier than Wikiobama. But then again, I possess some of iBC’s top secret files and will have them published if Fly tries to censor me. I know where he buys his Wikioatmeal and Wikiribeyes.
You’re not related to Steve the Neighbor, are you? Same writing style.
Actually my neighbors are Wikitinkerbell and Wikipeterpan which explains why I look like this.
Over the next 10 years, the stock market will go higher.
During the next 25 years, extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds will create the next Tulip bull market. Metaphorically speaking of course.
In the next 50 years, Wal-Mart’s credit card processing machine will ask you if you want to add 1 share of WalMart stock to your order.
That would be a genius move. When someone figures that out, stock ownership/financial interest would finally hit kids. $1 for the squishy, $1.23 for another share of Quicky-Mart. $0.01 to whoever thought up the crafty shares marketing method.
Anybody buying (more) silver here or let it come in a little?
let it come in a little.
Same here. let it come in
I cashed out of $ETFC this morning and bought physical with gains..
My winship is eclipsing last years winship because of said conspiracy.
Once you get on the conspiracy bandwagon you can never go back to normal analysis…..kind of like with women, once you go black, you……nevermind. You know what I mean.
“America was founded on compromise!?!”
EUR shitting the shower
OK. How did I end up in moderation.
10 year going bananas?
Speaking of conspiracies…here is a recent favorite
“EPA Says Range Resources Contaminated Texas Wells”
You guessed it, flammable water in Fort Worth…