I will preface this vid with a few facts:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=En-oJHyG-PY 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterThe United States will need to raise its debt ceiling to over $15 trillion by mid-2011 (HELLO TEA PARTY)
In 2011, advanced nation governments will need to borrow $10.2 trillion dollars, up 7% from 2010.
In 2011, The U.S. will need to borrow $4.2 trillion, representing 28% of economic output. Greece will need to raise $69 billion, or 24% of economic output.
FIG
Long $TBT
Agreed $TBT. Bought it a few days ago on that high volume outside day. Nice trend reversal setup.
Incidentally, if you are so inclined, you can get more juice with Direxion’s 3x $TMV.
!!Viva la revolucion!!
Bud a man stairs into the abyss…….
Dow drops 3000 in a day? What happens to the circuit breakers that day?
That said Ben B. will see he can’t act w/o consequences.
Here comes the ‘slider’…
G-20 meeting a whisper is heard around the Globe…suddenly the game changes and BB is powerless.
Pay attention fellas
this one will rock the boat
just the beginning with “..China says no more bonds..” shows how ignorant the fly is on the economic issues! Fly please educate yourself (M.Pettis or Pragcap may help on the above). Sure knowledge of how the econ works is not necessary nor sufficient but by Jove it seems like IFF is the new paradigm on this site?! (for sycophants and servile idiots IFF stands for “Is Fly Fraud?”).
Fly is not a ‘fraud’…may be bored….may need amusement…not a fraud
IFF stands for “Is Fly Fraud?
Gam check JT, please. If Gint sees your bad gram he’s going get really pissed.
I know it’s sad for you to hear, but Fly is (the) real deal. FIRD
JT – Those were Glen Beck’s words not Fly’s!
Yeah, JT, listen to the wife!
ROFL. I’m sure the dude writing the book is long gold. Talk about the tinfoil hat brigade. No question that there are massive financial issues to deal with here, but holly jumpin’ this is one small thread from 2012 crapola.
Well good entertainment anyway.
Indeud!
Yeah, sheesh, whatta mistake, being long gold.
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Jt
Go fuck a fire hydrant
Btw: someone tell JT “The Fly” is not Glenn Beck.
Thnx
No, the Fly is Michael Savage.
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FWIW..
Credit Suisse as been writing a lot about new issuance coming up. They think it will be a problem when private demand for money… new loans will front end with government demand for cash. They think that should happen late next year.
Private demand for money/new loans will be easily met by the banking system which has enormous excess reserves. And the government (in fiat currency regime) is never financially constrained.
Please elaborate on what exactly is the problem according to Credit Suisse.
What exactly didn’t you understand in what I wrote? But more importantly are you actually suggesting the the government would perform QE if rates backed up as a result of a collision between private and public sector demand for funds?
Are you nuts or just pretending to be?
Demand for funds? Really!?? Are you, what, still living in the Golden Standard era? Or in some Banana Republic with exchange rate fixed to USD? Go and educate yourself on how monetary systems work. Then reconsider posting such nonsense as “collision between private and public sector for funds”.
WTF is Keynes reincarnated. Right here in the midst of us. Begorrah!
Haha, I’m no homo 🙂
No, but it is amusing seeing you try to chastise a career currency trader with almost 40 years under his belt.
Cluetard.
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And?? It invalidates the argument against the “crowding out” effect in fiat currency economies? Educate yourself in this area, then call names.
my mouth is watering
Beck has been on point lately but he needs a better pair of shoes. WTF
That was gross. I’d never trust a guy who wears a business suit with necktie, and then some sneakers instead of a pair of dress shoes. And despite I agreed to what that guy said about restrictions of civil liberties (earlier link by the Fly), he should clearly stick to the political debate, and be silent about (macro) economics, for he understands zero.
dude had jeans on. wtf,youve never seen anyones garp of a shirt, tie, jeans, and,get this,” CONVERSE SNEAKERS”. very late 70’s college pop…….beck already knows,and so do his viewers,that he’s not an economist.
Didn’t see he was in jeans. Accepted. Thought he was in a complete suit AND snickers. That’s just bad taste in clothing. And I tend not to trust such people. And it doesn’t matter that he’s not an economist. He must be factually correct, in other words not speak about debt as though the buck is still backed by bullion.
You dudes are a bunch of fashionistas.
Treu dat
Bodacious Bourgeoisie Fashionista’s …………Pah! Who cares what he looks like. He gets lot’s and lot’s of viewers for Fox.
His jeans are stylin mon. He just needs to grow his hair long and braid it.
Next step would be a robe and sandals with a scroll of some kind to read from.
In my recollection, we have been talking about the issue the coming compound deficit problem for at least 30 years now. It is like Agent Smith holding Neo on the tracks, with the sound of the oncoming underground train growing louder and louder, saying “That, Mr. Anderson, is the sound of – inevitability.”
5 years ago I read a very good article that spoke of the possibility that we will eventually default on our loans and Wall Street won’t even blink. A radical idea, perhaps, but not impossible. Anyone who has traded the market for any length of time knows that logic and understanding is often the booby prize. If you don’t win, you will at least understand.
One more thought: George Soros is a spooky guy, and I don’t follow his ideologies in the slightest degree. However, he and his ex-partner Jim Rogers are some of the best traders in the world. I have studied their trading style for years. In a nutshell: as Jimmy Rogers put it (paraphrased) “We do nothing, until some money is sitting in the corner and then we walk over and pick it up.” They can stay out of the market for 5 years and then buy the bust or sell the boom (which is the Soros M.O.). He has made billions doing it. Most traders are way to active to make money in the market. And the truth is, most traders do not make money in the market – although most never admit it. I have been watching The Fly for a few years now and I am impressed by his ability to take money out of the market. He has strong beliefs, yet he doesn’t let them cloud his trading decisions. It is quite rare, in my experience. I find this blog to be an refreshingly balanced view of the situation, in a radically changing environment. Ok, enough kissing up. 🙂
To Agent Smith, “My name is Neo!”
saw that the other night monsuer fly.15 days is too much time. you know, and i know, and anyone thats in the market,will be the first motherfuckers runnin into the bank making withdraws,and then kicking themselves in the ass for not stocking the pantry. and the woodshed.and a diversion will be created,and the national guard will be on alert because of said diversion, all in the name of a mass run on the banking system. yadda yadda yadda. thats the show i’m waiting for beck to put on next…………….not bad for an ex-drunk, and a morman.
Beck is SO FULL OF CRAPPOLA. Any sane person knows that is 2 – 5 years,
a) our government AND our monetary system / markets will continue to function;
b) our dollar will be about where it is, or slightly stronger in relation to foreign currencies;
c) our annual deficit will be lower than it is now;
d) our Federal taxes will be 18 -24% of GDP , a level below where it was under Reagan;
e)our blue collar employment will stabilize or even increase because foreign labor will
be paid more, and because we will have hands-on jobs HERE in infrastructure (roads and
sewers can not be imported);
f) states and local governments, K-12 schools, and colleges will get control of their staffing,
salaries, and pension contributions
g) our bloated defense spending will DROP because we don’t to commit national suicide
like the USSR did.
In short, Glenn Beck is fuckin’ NUTS. And Fly, you do yourself no favors by falling for
his fraudulent, drug-addled bullshit.
Wait a minute:
What sort of bullshit are you smoking? Are you aware of the amount of debt that needs to be serviced? Furthermore, your assumptions are all incorrect, especially with defense. There is no political will to make cuts. You are assuming our govt will do the right thing. The real question is: how will we roll over the debt?
I eagerly await your answers
Debt interest is only $181 billion. We roll over maturing bonds by selling
NEW bonds. We actually gain in the process, because maturing intermediate
and long bonds have higher coupons than the new bonds!
Hell – the banks and the Fed and the public are BEGGING to buy new bonds!
That’s why rates are so low!
Debt Service, Debt Schmervice!
And with public opinion against Big “defense” (ha ha!) and with our need to
cut spending, Congress will come around to cut defense!
Idiot, how much longer do you think you can roll bonds in a low interest environment? Already the Chinese are only buying the short stuff.
Soon enough, the shit will tick up. Be prepared like the Goat.
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Fly, what it comes down to is this
China has bet the farm on their dubai style real estate scams.
If they crash the dollar here, their real estate bubble would collapse in a period of hours. It would also kill their exports–instantly.
I mean , a dollar crash would send speculators fleeing into the yuan, which would cause profound deflation.
a) Correct, to some degree
b) Crystal ball prediction – not a vaild argument
c) Crystal ball prediction – not a vaild argument
d) This is a political statement because you mention Reagan- you have no facts to back this up
e) Incorrect: Roads and sewers are being imported every day. It’s called illegal immigration. The illegals build our infrastructure and wire the money back home to Mamacita to build their dream house. They are paid cash and only pay taxes when they get gas or shop at Walmart. This is a fact because I live close to the border and know these folks personally.
f) Incorrect – A town close to me just passed a $500,000,000 bond propostion to build a new school. This is going on all around the country. Teachers salaries are going up as mandated by our State government. A college in my town has doubled tuition 2 times in the last 15 years. ($5k /yr is now $20k /yr)
g) Crystal ball prediction – not a vaild argument, geo-political occurences happen at random and with consequences that are often unpredictable and could require a use of force with high costs. Send a carrier task force around the world with it’s compliment of air and sea support, you’re talking a billion minimum.
Glen Beck is an entertainer. He plays out a “what if” scenario which all good businesses do. Folks listen to him because they want to hear an opposing view that cancels out the garbage that is being spewed from leftists mouths.
What hokum. Did you know Fedral revenues as a share of GDP are currently
at 60-year lows? They are now UNDER 15% – WAY too low!
And whats to prevent passing a law requiring construction workers to be legal?
How about a DEATH PENALTY for contractors who hire Illegals?
I’ll pull the switch on the chair.
Then let’s use your scenario. All American construction worker takes his paycheck, buys a foreign made big screen TV, and uses the balance to do some reno’s on the house (with an illegal work crew who sends their money out of country), and hire a part-time maid (who sends her money out of country). Net gain is America’s (taxpayers) net loss unless the high-speed trains, or whatever infrastructure that Joe America built are used unencumbered by weath creating US businesses.
It doesn’t matter what the percentage of REVENUES to GDP is, fool, but how much GOVERNMENT SPENDING is to GDP.
That’s the metric of how much of the private sector is being crowded out by Keynsian retards like yourself.
Someday you have to pay for that waste, and that someday is coming.
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Jakey, read Mauldin’s latest letter where Hussmann expands on QE and the liquidity trap?
Exactly. That was a nice piece. Mauldin is a pretty clear thinker.
I got it but have not read it yet…. your comments?
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China softens stance on Fed’s QE2… I guess the fifteen days of horror won’t be starting anytime soon.
The unfortunate part is all of the Fox news zombies will probably miss the x-mas rally due to their newly enlightened brains, thanks to Beck.
It reminds me of the end of days crowd. Waiting waiting waiting, yet we keep spinning round. They miss out on all the good stuff.
Wrong. I’m already enjoying the bennies, and if anything, I’m more pessimistic than Beck.
Thing is, I realize I’m only preserving capital. You think you are making money. Get a wheelbarrow.
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Beck admits he is a circus clown. His job is to entertain, so he thinks. He is right that his job is not about serious facts, education etc. Actually, his job is to create fear and anger, & he is a Master of it Anyone connected to a biofeedback machine while watching Beck would find themselves unable to stop their emotional arousal level from increasing. Perhaps Fox even does that experiement on people before hiring forlks like Beck.
When people are pumped up with fear & anger, they think less clearly and are easier to manipulate, which is Fox network’s entire purpose for being. Now that Fox has gotten the Repubs to control the house, its corporate sponsors (same as the corporate Special Interest Groups who finance election campaigns.) are happier than ever. Even though they already control both political parties, they can do even better if there is a bit of gridlock caused by different parties controlling the Senate & the House. They have gone from doing great to doing even better. They certainly will not mind at all if GB’s followers miss the Xmas rally & end up getting in at higher levels afterwards.
Arousal is something that has not occurred in any way, shape or form when I have watched Glen Beck. ……………just sayin’……..
Nice analysis, Frog.
Right, the only reason people don’t hew to Dear Leader’s enlightened socialist policies is because of “fear and anger.”
Misplaced, no doubt.
Don’t think it’s a coincidence that for the last 150 years, the Left has commandeered the dumbasses.
Math was difficult for you, wasn’t it?
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http://thepartyofknow.com/2010/08/17/glenn-beck-the-hindenburg-omen/
He did a week long special on the Hindenburg omen in August. He actually suggested Obama should have cancelled a state dinner, to focus on the problem.
I think Glenn needs to hire a new circle of advisers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfvIstgOugc
The problem as I see it is the current rate of acceleration of the debt. This chart (below) and many like it show the parabolic nature of the debt curve. As a technical trader, parabolic charts like this ALWAYS mean one thing. I just don’t see anyway around it – in terms of probability and statistics.
What is going to happen, I don’t know. That something is going to happen is almost a certainty. It has been a long time coming too. This is not a recent event.
http://bit.ly/aSf9YX
In his 10 year old book “the alchemy of finance”, Soros ( whom I respect as a trader) describes the “credit and regulation boom and bust cycle”. He describes the Fed constantly deferring the natural “bust” portion of the cycle And the creation of an uber-bubble. He says (paraphrased) “when the Fed is finally unable able to avert the natural bust cycle, this will be an event that wen have NEVER experienced in this country”. Yes, Soros isn a little creepy and extremely polarized – but he is a very sharp trader and worth listening to.
I apologize for the typos. I love my iPad but it is not without its challenges.
i feel a rapture hard-on coming!
people suffering for their sin: greed.
I love GB scenario. it’s win-win for GB. if it doesn’t happen, he can say it didn’t happened because he warned you “america”. it happens, it’s a big told-you-so-“america”.
learn from the enemy. i don’t see him as the friend of free enterprise. i don’t seem him as the friend of the disfranchised. he’s using them. he’s not doing america any service by “teaching” voodoo economics 101. certainly not a friend of “america” the democracy. his best friends are jesus and murdoch. a dangerous combination.
A very plangent, economically limpid response.
“Voodoo economics?”
Really? The best you could do is a quote from George Bush, Sr., circa 1980??
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One thing to think about might be either what the U.S. or others might do or what other events might unfold to ensure that China does not say “no more debt.”
I’ll bet others who are a lot better educated in economics than I am might have already thought through many alternative scenarios.
Fly,
Why do you persist in fear-mongering the masses with your Beck-ocalypse . We know that you are much more intelligent than Mr. Vickers and realize that the current nature of the dollar is entirely different than at the establishment of the debt limit. We can almost hear you mumbling smugly to yourself while reading the comments, chiding the fools for acting as if the dollar was still convertible and the government was operationally constrained by debt issuance. “Fools,” you say, “the government is the sovereign issuer of a non-convertible currency in a floating exchange rate system; their checks will literally never bounce! The government itself generates dollars, demand for which persists as we are ever-forced to work for those dollars in order to legally pay our recurring taxes, dollars which the government will subsequently destroy to remove from the system!” You are wise enough to know that Beck is falsely leading the masses to believe that China controls the spending of a government that is revenue independent. You laugh almost as much at China for spending over a decade shipping us their economic output and having nothing to show for it but intrinsically worthless non-convertible paper (that can by nature only be spent as dollars) as you do at those like Mr. Vickers that see any similarities with countries on the Euro, who are constrained much as they would be under a gold standard, and those sovereign and monopolistic issuers of non-convertible currency like the US and the UK.
How do you really feel about this commodity surge? Do you see market participants as a herd that is currently placing bets on the misinformed Beck-belief that QE2 is an inflationary action and not the simple asset-swap that it is in reality? I do indeed, however, worry with you about the subsequent margin compression and lack of corporate pricing-power along with fundamental changes in emerging economies. You must also worry with me that such Beck-onomics is so pervasive among the GOP, the tea-party, and the government as a whole that it may lead to measures which will guarantee us a Japanese outcome.
Whatever your motives, Fly, I urge you to come clean and cease such Beck misinformation. You must tell those of us who are less intelligent than you that since the government is the sole source of our dollars that such dollars must have been created before we can use them to pay our taxes or China can use them to buy our bonds. Inform us that, in this balance sheet recession in which the US is a net importer, in order for the private sector to run an surplus and repair its balance sheets the government must,by accounting identity, run a deficit. I urge you, Fly, to come clean with you Beck scheme and return to your true claw-hammer ways, for I feel that conspiring to stir a panic run on your local Whole Foods just to raid the back room for more bottles of wine may not be worth the cost.
Using sense and logic will get you nowhere with anyone who listens to Glenn Beck.
Ha…true indeeds. You make me regret being so verbose.
It’s true, if one only listened to the wisdom of the famed Cynic, one would have eschewed gold from the crippled days following 9/11.
“Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, the Great and Powerful Oz is merely repairing the Balance Sheets…”
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I am sorry if I led you to conclude that I believe Bernanke to be acting intelligently or correctly; I do not at all believe that to be the case and view his actions as potentially dangerous and inappropriate. I also did not even mention gold nor can I see how you surmised that I would eschew metals from my writing.
None of this, however, changes the point that Beck’s underlying monetary framework is not at all applicable to the current operational framework of the US federal government. Many of the restrictions which form the premises for his argument do not at all apply; I believe this stems from a widespread lack of understanding of monetary theory at the federal level. Many still view the federal government to be constrained like a traditional balance sheet at the household or state level. This is no longer the case since Nixon unilaterally removed the convertibility of the dollar and exchange rates began to float.
I also did not mean to attach any value judgment; though I obviously was being satirical at a certain level, I did not intend to be smug or critical. Beck was perpetuating a framework that is not applicable to the current situation. Whether we agree with it or not, we will all be better served to accept the realities of the current situation of the dollar and the federal government; this understanding can only aid us in making better-informed decisions
Many still view the federal government to be constrained like a traditional balance sheet at the household or state level. This is no longer the case since Nixon unilaterally removed the convertibility of the dollar and exchange rates began to float.
True, we are not so constrained, but this does not mean that the dollars we push into the system are not radically devalued since the day we made the choice to break from the Bretton Woods agreement.
In fact, only the “lucky” circumstance of a rapidly developing China, which has accomodated our dollar expansion via a deflationary “gift” has stayed a much faster inflationary cycle for the dollar.
But China is rapidly approaching First World status, and they will not much longer be able to pay for our excess.
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I feel like discussing the reasons for the declining value of the dollar index over the past 40 years are well outside the scope of my initial argument against Beck and would involve a lot more than a few comment exchanges. Also addressing the issue of China and its longstanding currency peg were also not within Beck’s framework. I think it would be tough to directly speak of China’s effects without a lot of research and exchange; I do not think the Yuan is even part of the dollar index that we might view to trace the relative value of the dollar after China’s peg. Here is how I see it.
*Beck fear-mongers
*QE2 is inflationary money printing
*fed govt. is revenue constrained and that China will say no to funding our spending and entire global economy crashes in two weeks
*I (cynically) counter with the fact that many of his premises are not correct
**the fed govt. is now revenue independent (China/taxes do not fund fed spending), being the sole monopoly issuer of a non-convertible currency in a floating exchange-rate system
**QE2 is a non-inflationary asset swap
*you come in with an ad hominem attempting to devalue my argument by essentially saying “gold went up and Diogenes doesn’t like gold so he was wrong so you shouldn’t listen to him”
**I never mentioned the stuff
I clarified and then you replied. My initial response was concerning Beck and his flawed premises which I think I adequately addressed. I do think there are a lot of good issues you brought up regarding the nature of dollar and the current system as it stands. It is very complex and I would love to chat and learn more about it. The true discussions we need to have are about the realities of the current system and its implications.
Thanks for the good responses and banter; I enjoy iBC and both Fly’s and your posts.
You lost me at Glenn Beck.
Fly, Ive been reading and watching alot of news , commentaries like this and find it very difficult to pretend everything is rosy , “i,m all in!!””, in fact im embarassed to say im 100 percent cash, because of stories like this,… and not feelling good about it, any advice is appreciated,
Cash is the worst possible thing to be in right now.
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Per the CIO @ Guggenheim Partners in Barrons this weekend:
“by making such large allocations to collectibles and to gold, we’re essentially advocating an anti-currency trade—that is, trying to find things which are not financial assets to store value in that have the ability to be liquid and portable. ”
Asset Alocation:
10-20% art or collectibles
10-20% commodities over weighted in PM and Ind’l metals
Balance split between equities and fixed income with a preference for large cap dividend stocks (US) and 10% of equities in Emerging Markets.
“From a value standpoint, equities are very attractive. When you look at the earnings yield on equities relative to bonds, U.S. equities are exceptionally cheap. There is also a pretty solid uptrend in earnings growth in the United States. And given that the dollar is so cheap, this is probably not the pivotal moment to be diversifying away from the dollar. But it would be imprudent not to have an allocation to the emerging markets, because within the next 20 to 30 years China, India and Brazil are likely to account for a much larger percentage of the world market-cap.”
What about 3x inverse funds on PMetals? 😉
Are they shortable?
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Yes of course, plus the inherent long decline due to compounding make shorting them very profitable. 😉