In response to U.S. pressures to force China to revalue the yuan, China countered with adding “anti-dumping” duties on U.S. chicken feet, anywhere from 50-100%. As of now, there are no restrictions on human fetus soup.
As many of you ham and eggers chew on granola bars, on this splendid evening, Asian markets are advancing. It’s like a chain reaction of abject stupidity, which is also reinforced by many of you simple IRA types. Your lifestyle is in line with your thinking. Therefore, I do not expect you to understand me or agree with my assertions.
On November 12th, iBC will celebrate its third anniversary. By then, I expect many of you to be under my shoe, once again, as God always has a way of blessing me, while punishing my enemies.
As the clock ticks, the set up is ripening. There has never been a time, in all of my years investing, that I have been 100% certain about my positioning. Needless to say, I am 10,000% (anything more than 100% is simply annoying, no?) certain, as I write this. Perhaps it can be chalked up to a disruptive mental disorder, one that I am unaware of. Or, I know exactly what I am doing and why.
As I close out this blog post, “The Fly” has great plans for himself and is plotting out another dramatic career move, as his evolution quickens. In case you are wondering, YES, he will leave you in the dust: but that’s because, to a large degree, you’re entirely wourthless [sic]. So sorry.
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speaking of chicken feet, are you aware that you should beware the black turkey?
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/09/26/black-swan-meets-black-turkey/
let me guess, double down on TZA?
triple down.
no
QuAD-roople-DOWN!!
++++++++++
Double down? How’ about triple or quadruple down on TZA and TXX? Fly my’man you’ve forgotten the economy is not the market. Vacation time bro. Trade what you see – not what you think. Send us a postcard.
Career move? … i hope you made it on to Dancing with the Stars.
I Will allow these silly comments to fester, so that i may ridicule them later.
Can’t wait.
I agree with you 110%!!!
No more slinging crack rock?
Wourthless…indeud.
indeud
Fly, IF you were inclined to bet on a pullback, why not take a shot at a tech name that has experienced a comical run, such as AMZN…as opposed to some diluted triple lev etf
I do not own any tza for managed accts
I believe that we will see QE2 before the first of the year. Seems that Ben Jammin is just itching to pull the trigger. The dollar will likely begin a death spiral and that will likely boost equities and provably Sir Jake’s favorite metals.. NO?
let me know what the setup is when you get some time…
I’m reminded of DevilDog mondays.
Ben let the cat out of the bag by telling us that inflation is below what the Fed would like to see. WTF? If that’s not a bell ringer to buy gold and silver, I don’t know what is. It’s also good for stocks in general as long as inflation doesn’t get out of hand. But certainly, QE2 will help the inflation trade.
I wouldn’t want to short this market with the prospect of QE2 down the road , cash balances at high levels, and interest rates at low levels historically.
Trade and invest accordingly.
Before you jump (or stay) on the gold bandwagon, you may want to read this “opposing case”. I am NOT, however, saying one should short it. (Not yet, anyway.)
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/195387-logical-thought/96187-why-at-1300-an-ounce-gold-s-future-performance-may-disappoint
As long as there is logical and sufficient dissent to the gold story, I remain comfortably in the gold trade. It’s not just for U.S. investors, it’s for every investor around the world who despises the way their governments and central bankers are managing their fiat currencies. With just about every policitican and central planner wanting a weak currency to boost their export bidness, what does that tell you?
The rats are all trying to keep their heads above water, as the ships are sinking.
>>As long as there is logical and sufficient dissent to the gold story, I remain comfortably in the gold trade.<<
There's ALWAYS "logical and sufficient dissent" to ANY story. I think buying gold is like buying a stock, in that the buyers have certain inflationary expectations, and if those expectations "miss", the price of gold will come down. So you need to ask yourself: "What's the rate of inflation that all those OTHER gold buyers are anticipating?", and you need to make sure that you think things will be "worse" (and, of course, that you turn out to be right). Of course, if you're looking for genuine hyperinflation, it will be almost impossible to pay too much for gold today. However, high-single digit inflation followed by some serious and fast interest rate rises will crush both gold AND stocks.
Gold did not need inflation to be the best asset class over the past 10 years. Expectations for inflation were not high, either.
Consider what will happen when inflation does pick up.
“However, high-single digit inflation followed by some serious and fast interest rate rises will crush both gold AND stocks.”
It will crush bonds, not gold and stocks. Not sure what you’re basing that statement on.
Gold last peaked in Jan 1980 around $875 while the prime rate was rising rapidly … the prime peaked around May 1, 1980 at 18.5% so there is no truth to the point made that rising interest rates will kill the price … depends upon the circumstances.
I wasn’t clear enough in what I was saying. The price of gold is all about inflationary expectations. Despite those high rates, the U.S. CPI hit modern-era all-time highs in 1979 and 1980 (at 13.3% and 12.5%, respectively). Once those rates crushed inflation, though, they took gold down with it. So, while high rates may (or may not) initially crush gold, once they crush inflation (assuming that they do), gold will get slammed. In 1982, the inflation rate was 3.8%, and gold averaged $375.
Alpha
Its just words. 2 trill later and the Fed policy to reflate has failed. What will another trill do?
Out of bullets
I agree that more QE2 will do minimal additional anything for the economy. If earnings can just stabilize right here, though, ZIRP may permit some serious multiple expansion until ZIRP becomes untenable, at which time stocks will crash hugely from wherever they are… The problem is that I now think that “wherever they are” could be a point significantly higher than “where they are now”. Seeing as I don’t play “musical chairs” I’m now mostly in cash. But if you’re gonna get broadly long this market, you better be ready to grab a chair in a hurry!
Spot on Fly.
Here’s a site I follow (not for you Fly, for the other dullards).
http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/
The Fed has ‘allowed’ the monetary base to drop more than in recent years (because it needs a crash to justify QE2). But as the 2nd article shows, QE2 is a waste of time. Deflation in some stuff, inflation in others is what we face, look at oil since April and Gold. Oil is saying ‘there is no growth’, Gold is saying ‘currencies will be debased’.
Stocks will fall into either of the above camp, deflate or inflate. Pick your poison.
Fly, you ever want to expand in the UK, you give me a shout, we could do some business maybe.
True, but the Fed and politicians are insane, per the definition of insanity.
Everyone seems to be bearish/negative the markets. That is why I fear they will continue to rise–climbing the “wall of worry”. Until we work off some of that bearishness and make some of the shorts “cry uncle”…the markets will continue to rise.
When u say everyone is bearish, what does that mean?
I mean it seems like my whole network of fellow investors/blogs I follow are negative on the markets, including IBC. And from the stats I’ve seen, retail participation in this rally is very low as most investors are staying on the sidelines. Of course a a sell-off is plausible, but a continued strong rally as the skeptics capitulate is a strong possibility.
My tought exactly…
Great article on QE: http://pragcap.com/does-quantitative-easing-drive-asset-prices-higher
The market just might keep going up until the retail brokers and their investors begin to jump in with both feet. It would give Mr. Market great joy to pull the rug out from under their feet, no?
This is my suspicion as well…but I think earnings may disappoint before the retail guy starts jumping back in leaving only…???? to buy.
And if no buyers in a deteriorating macro picture, do we crash?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/227006-pushing-on-a-string-a-treacherous-game-for-markets?source=email
I think this explains the Fed position very well.
John Mauldin is among the best when it comes to analyzing the economy.
Fly, you’re gonna sell VXX/TZA and buy TNA instead?
My vote is short the gold miners…
James
I am the only bearish blogger on ibc
I still have hedges.
Fetus soup and chicken feet….. hmmmm…… yummy……
The United States is rapidly becoming the very first “post-industrial” nation on the globe. All great economic empires eventually become fat and lazy and squander the great wealth that their forefathers have left them, but the pace at which America is accomplishing this is absolutely amazing. It was America that was at the forefront of the industrial revolution. It was America that showed the world how to mass produce everything from automobiles to televisions to airplanes. It was the great American manufacturing base that crushed Germany and Japan in World War II. But now we are witnessing the deindustrialization of America. Tens of thousands of factories have left the United States in the past decade alone. Millions upon millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost in the same time period. The United States has become a nation that consumes everything in sight and yet produces increasingly little.
Do you know what our biggest export is today? Waste paper. Yes, trash is the number one thing that we ship out to the rest of the world as we voraciously blow our money on whatever the rest of the world wants to sell to us. The United States has become bloated and spoiled and our economy is now just a shadow of what it once was. Once upon a time America could literally outproduce the rest of the world combined. Today that is no longer true, but Americans sure do consume more than anyone else in the world. If the deindustrialization of America continues at this current pace, what possible kind of a future are we going to be leaving to our children?
Any great nation throughout history has been great at making things. So if the United States continues to allow its manufacturing base to erode at a staggering pace how in the world can the U.S. continue to consider itself to be a great nation? We have created the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world in an effort to maintain a very high standard of living, but the current state of affairs is not anywhere close to sustainable. Every single month America does into more debt and every single month America gets poorer.
So what happens when the debt bubble pops?
Thanks for the news flash.
Actually, the manufacturing disappearance trope is somewhat bullshit. We still employ about 9 million in manufacturing here, and that number’s not likely to shrink much further.
You see, we were first in line to do away with much manufacturing inefficiency (which yes, includes outsourcing stuff that shouldn’t be produced here), and replace highly paid workers with automation. It’s happening now in Japan and it will soon happen in mainland China as it has in Taiwan.
Jeremy Grantham had a great piece about it in Barron’s maybe a year or so ago.
What we have left in the U.S. as far as manufacturing is relatively high end, high value-added specialized technology and piece work. Which is actually economically efficient, and makes room for our most precious resource — human labor.
So I guess we have the unions to thank for speeding us towards that path.
________
I am bearish, but am keeping quiet because of all the feet stuffed in my mouth …
http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkingsf/sets/72157624812674967/
Fly, are you going Nucky Thompson style? Get a piece of everything?
Flyseph- 3 years? Time’s fun when you’re having Flys [sic].
Truly, the leeches have no idea how valuable the past 3 years of Flys have been.
Go for it.
huh? Ok
Perhaps the PPT is best suited for trendless markets. Stock markets have broken out and leadership is being established. Keep throwing money into misguided positions such as AEM short and TLT long instead of riding the AAPL/ ORCL / AMZN / BIDU trains and watch your assets. and your performance collapse like your VXX position.
Dave
Ive defeated countless androids, such as yourself, before.
Whoooooosh?
Its much more fun watching you win….best of luck.
Face it !
Nobody fuckin’ knows where we go next !!!
UP … DOWN … who tha fuck knows !?!?!
—
We’re ALL at the mercy of “Government Reports” …
The subsequent inexplicable “interpretation” of those reports …
Comments from out of left field … from who the fuck knows who … that can be “spun” in ways you can NEVER anticipate !!!
AND … the ROBOTS !!!
Tha fuckin’ trading ROBOTS that can turn this “Market” … on a dime …and create a stampede … reminiscent of a “herd of wildebeasts” across the Serengeti Plains !!!
GOD HELP YOU … if you’re on the wrong side of that stampede !!!
.
Well said…you sum the situation up quite nicely.
Holy shasta, Batman… do the futes really say +225 Dow, +45 Nazcrack, and +26 S&P?
Mama mia.
__________
No!
Nope. At 12:46 a.m. I have S&P eminis up 0.31%, or 3.55 points.
Sorry, didn’t look at the absolute numbers. CNN Money is still showing Friday’s results, this late Sunday evening… don’t ask me why.
___
Yeah CNN’s pages are a pain in the ass – do like their world markets page though.
Might want to try http://www.barchart.com/futures/heatmap/
Not very fancy, but at least up to date.
CNBC’s pre-market page – http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937. Has been more reliable than cnn money. 15 minutes delayed. Of course you probably already know software like Quote tracker has it in real time.
Thanks, both of those are (more) helpful!
I usually check the CNN page when I’m too lazy to input all the info to open the online stuff.
_____
R.I.P.
I knew this rhetoric between the Chinese and the US was going to continue, as I said in a post last week or some recent time. Listen up fatsos, once you’re done clearing the browser history on your wife’s laptop and finished deleting and eating cookies check out what’s up next at the Fuck You buffet.
October 7 AA posts Q3 results and expect softness on the back of the slowdown of auto manufacturing and the fire they had at their Tennessee plant. They also decided to increase freight on some of their West Coast bullshit, and quite frankly, who tries to nickle and dime like that if they aren’t making money on the fat part of the bat? All of the rail traffic has been for grains and chemicals, not fucking metal.
Then you have INTC the week after. Have you heard the news about weak PC demand being repeated every fucking day? Not to mention they are coming off of the “greatest quarter in INTC history?”
The news headlines are replete with share buybacks and secondary offerings, but when the earnings roll in, watch the revenues and gross margins.
Are you implying that revs and gross margins will be up or down? It seems you are saying they will be down. Anyway, I appreciate the fundamental analysis since that is not my forte.
Isn’t short term trading working on a completely different set of attributes compared to longer term trading, which in turn is working on a different set of catalysts compared to long term investing? While QE2 may turn out to be a dud, the realization in terms of news catalyts will not hit the wires, at least not next week for sure. And that means the current momentum of upside should continue next week.
I would wager that our next piece of nasty and ergo, the catalyst, should come from earnings before the QE2 fall out. What will exacerbate the fall then is the depression resulting from the realization that even QE cannot save us from bad earnings.
Until then we trend higher. October 1st or 2nd week is when caution is warranted.
Three years? Really? It’s a long way from those orange pages. How about a retro orange theme for the anniversary?
China goes on Vacation starting Friday. China Billet prices in the port was down today after a 3 day vacation. Rebar and Wire down too. Shanghai comp was lead by china Copper Miners have news that production and price has gained over the 8 months…..LME isn’t taking out the 8,000 tonne…surprise, surprise….well, not.
Is that a chicken around your neck?
_______
Thank God I don’t make my trade decisions based on rebar prices in China.
Ah, but what about lead ingots?
It’s all lead ingots these days, son.
________
Hi Jake…Yes, it is a chicken but I already dumped the Feet in China. For Lead, lol, it moves just like ore, etc…but something for my radar cuz it was a tell too…http://www.lme.com/lead_graphs.asp
lol
The tariff is only because the Chinese love their Chicken Dim Sum soup.
Realize that if you didn’t participate in this rally, you’ve just missed the best month since march 2000. Sucks to be you, perma bears.
Markets should rally another 20 % this week alone! I’ve got all my money on that prediction!
lol
Jake takes a step back as he senses an oncoming mega-ban, in the order of the Gym Coach character in Disney’s Sky High (starring Kurt Russell and Kelly Preston and a great favorite of the Gintling set) who separates out “heroes” and “sidekicks” by yelling at ultra-sonic volumes the words “SIDE KICK!!!!
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Reference material for the last post
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Toto – Where do you get the idea that we’re “perma-bears”? You knew [sic] ’round here?
He’s been in Africa with Rosanna.
___
Yup.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktKNEGSqLB4
I’m 100% certain of my position, but not sure if I’m correct.
Are we related by marriage?