Month to date, the S&P is up about 4.3%. Listening to the media, one would think we are up 40% in September. Slow your fucking roll, douchebag. The market will vomit up all of its gains, and more, inside two quick trading days—and you know it.
So far, in 2010, the market has been a lot about nothing. If you are up more than 10%, you have managed your money well. Do not try to make 200%, for that entails taking on too much risk.
Here is the monthly performance data of the S&P, in 2010:
Jan: -3.6%
Feb: +3.1%
March: +5.6%
April: +1.5%
May: -7.9%
June: -5.1%
July: +6.8%
August: -0.6%
Sept: 4.3% (open)
Notice any trends? Of course not. Back to the topic of playing this tape: it’s hard. I don’t care what anyone says, this tape, despite my 30% returns, is fucking difficult. Nevertheless, I think my attitude towards the market is jaded due to my disbelief in just about everything. If I was a perma-bull or bear, I would be able to trade with more conviction. But because I think we are simply partaking in building a house of cards, I ebb and flow between bullishness and outright pessimism.
Historically, if the market escapes September with gains, there is a better than average chance of the market continuing the uptrend until December.
There are headwinds. With Japan active in the forex, China gets thrown into the fag box. I have no proof or evidence; but I believe the strong yen action is being caused by insidious forces inside of China. I am not surprised to see Shanghai trade lower, rather aggressively, two days in a row following Japanese intervention. As an aside, the Indian market is the most overvalued in the world, trading more than 20x eps. I will be selling my iBN position tomorrow. There are 10,000 reasons to take profits right now. However, no one wants to be the first one to sell.
One thing is for certain, following simian brained moves to the upside, the funnel is set. Heed these warnings else find yourself inside of a fucking funnel for Halloween, getting mudstomped.
UPDATE: I knew I was onto something with my Japanese/Chinese rift scenario.
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The Fly is God!
yes indeed… I am prepared to jump into the funnel.
China gets thrown into the fag box.
Holy shit I have tears of laughter on my rosy cheeks. I think we need to introduce a special whine here:
Noooooooo! Not the faaaaag booooooox!
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Actually, Jeremy and I were going to make a box in the PG and throw people who annoyed me in it.
Well you’ve got the perfect title now….
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That should be priority #1
“Fag Box” has got to go into the iBC dictionary for 2011 if the dictionary still exists.
the man with the best avatar here should know that it most certainly does
http://ibankcoin.com/dannyblog/index.php/ibankcoincom-dictionary/
But I must also ask…
What of Smelternomics?
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they have shut “smelternomics” classes down. They have realized that no matter what they do, they just can’t get lead bars to turn into gold bars…
That’s not Smelternomics, that’s Alchemy.
If Alchemy worked, we in the smelter trade would be flacked.
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Once they figure out how to make gold, synthetically, it will go to $10,000 per ounce.
The one who smelt it… dealt it.
Hey, that O’donnel woman is just as dumb as Palin. I am so proud of my GOP. They have come along way.
Nothing is as dumb as a vote for Obama. As “dumb” as this women is or was, I bet she wasn’t that fucking dumb.
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It’s like, “shit, that Pol Pot — he’s an academic isn’t he? Let’s vote for him next time.”
The precepts of the country are pretty simple. Less government, more leaving people alone and letting them get on with their lives in peace.
You don’t need to be Harry “the Brain” Reid to follow that simple an assignment, do you?
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WRONG. It’s naive to think we will get a passive government. No gov’t in the history of the world, sans the barbarian hordes, have “left the people alone.” Your vision of nirvana is Mad Max.
Wrong, it was this country before Woodrow Wilson, Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt.
Those three, and to some extent Teddy Roosevelt, started the statist ball rolling. Before that, Congress and the Exec actually had some humility about their Constitutional responsibilities.
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You are kidding right? Let me guess, you want to go back on the gold standard too?
Yes because sweat shops, child labor, etc were what should forever be remembered as “The good old days”.
One thing I do agree with from those times; women should not be allowed to vote. Or drive for that matter.
It never fails to amaze me, this capacity of glib libs to talk a lot of blithe shit while failing to discriminate between ass and elbow.
You ought to read more history and less Liberal propaganda, PoPimp. Contrary to Progressive myth making, industry was far ahead of gummint in effecting cures to all those measures. By the time government enacted such measures into law, most corporations had already self-regulated in response to — yep, you guessed it (well, Maybe not you)– changing market conditions. In fact, the greatest use for such laws, just as the effect of much Congressional action today, was to limit competition.
But then, you’re probably one of those libs who thinks its better to keep third world workers scratching out a living on a dirt farm rather than in a factory job until they have equivalent UAW-AFSCME bennies.
In less words– “clueless.”
By the time government enacted such measures into law, most corporations had already self-regulated in response to — yep, you guessed it (well, Maybe not you)– changing market conditions.
Reducing the number of locks on the fire-trap factory doors from 8 to 4 is not self-regulation.
Well, I doubt she voted for Obama. However, I bet you voted for Bush, as I did.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Are you seriously comparing Bush to Obama?
Have you been paying any attention to what the flack has been going on here for the last two years?
Bush was a RINO, but he wasn’t a fucking Marxist for Christmas sakes. And O’Donnell (I don’t know her story) — if she is a tea party small government person — is far better than both of them.
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Bush, in my opinion, was one of the worst Presidents of all time. I voted for him twice.
Where to begin?
The wars, economy, taxes, grammar, foreign policy, stock market, bank collapse, ushered in BIG GOV’T, ushered in military contractors who arrogantly operate overseas, ushered in the era of bailouts, etc.
Oh, and last but not least. You know what Bush ushered in, pal: Obama.
No, morons who read too much People magazine “ushered in” Obama.
The mortgage crisis — which Bush actually tried to address by reforming Fannie and Freddie as far back as 2003 (ie, before the bubble in mortgages) — ushered in your pal, Obama.
Who blocked Bush’s efforts there? Some 78 Congresscritters, chief among them Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.
And look, those two same clever gentlemen have now “reformed” the financial system you and I make our living in.
Isn’t that just fucking peachy?
(Please do not ask if that 2,500 page document addressed the infrastructural and institutional problems of Fan and Fred. Please do not, upon pain of death)
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People magazine has nothing to do with the Bush/Paulson hit squad.
It’s what got the empty suit elected. Looks and flash and people refusing to do their due diligence.
A cursory glance at the man’s record would have been all that was necessary. Now, everyone suffers.
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I would have voted for Humpty Dumpty, than cast one for McCain/Dogsledder.
You should have not voted then.
Instead, you are complicit in electing the worst President in US history.
Congrats.
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If I could do it again, I would vote for Obama again. You know the difference between you and I?
You actually believe you are participating in a democratic process. You believe your vote, naively, counts for something.
It’s all bullshit. They are hired actors. I vote for whomever makes me laugh more.
HA!
Can’t argue with a complete abidication of responsibility, that’s for sure.
I grew up under Reagan, you grew up under Clinton. I cannot fault you for your cynicism.
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You wanna get outta here?
Talk to me…
They are throats.
Is this tea party lady for real? These are the teaparty reps? They as cooky as Glenn Beck. Nice way to rally back from defeat, I’m starting to doubt the GOP’s ability to take some control.
It’s like, people are so fed up with politicians they are now booting out all incumbents , without looking at replacements.
The GOP will become the party of housewives soon enough.
Better housewives than the corrupt bunch of asshats currently taking up the rolls.
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Actually, I agree with you. I am just hoping for better. Am I wrong to set the bar so high? Either way, I’m voting for Palin three times in 2012, mainly to fuck with dems.
What bar would you like higher? What’s better than regular citizens who understand that less government is better than more, after 80 years of Constitutional abuse?
You want Albert Einstein? He’s off doing higher pay stuff. Maybe you could run next time?
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She’s a fucking idiot.
Again, who cares? All she has to do is say “no, no more spending”
It’s quite a simple formula, actually. Reagan, while smarter than Palin for sure, was no nuclear engineer.
But Jimmy Carter was.
Any of this “it’s the ideas that make the idiot” spiel breaking through yet?
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All valid points, except Reagan was a pimp.
Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank are not qualified to be house wives.
who cares if shes an idiot???? Shes running our damn country! she isnt even smart enough to manage a fckin burger king!!
Duckbits, listen up, as this is the last time. Congress does not “run” you. The fact that they think they can is what got us into this current predicament. The
Government is NOT your friend and they are NOT “here to help.”
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Simply amazing that so many dolts don’t grasp this simple truth.
On this point, see:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/tea-party-s-triumph-makes-competence-quaint-margaret-carlson.html
Jake,
Your interpretation of the constitution and neaderthal and dangerously idealist. And praytell, what has Obama done to deserve so much of your scorn? Extend the unemployment benefits of the teabaggers? Give every child in this country a chance at health insurance. The problem with your view is that it denies the reality of the world you live in. Face it: America has been a state-capitalist enterprise for some time now, and your fantasy of the “real” thing, well, it was a fantasy based on land appropriation and racism. And, let’s not forget: they “built” some trains, but not a real power. There is no going back to what you fantasize about. End of story. And if we do, it will destroy this country.
The problem with Washington is that none of them would have a clue how to run a company and I also know that the bigger the committee for anything the worst result you get.
Yet we expect a few hundred jackasses to run the largest corporation in the world.
You’ve found the kernal of truth – they shouldn’t have that kind of power at their disposal.
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I sense that Fly seriously believes this market is going to roll over any day now. What a travesty it would be, if the market sprints higher instead of falling apart. I agree that we are at a major inflection point in the market, however, I am not so convinced that the move will be down.
Nothing is certain. Everything is a risk.
Yeah, today is the first where I have considered buying SPY puts in a long time.
Stop strangling that woman, dammit!
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Japan makes this game much more interesting now, maybe we got something.
Expecting to hear much more in the coming days.
US/China/Japan fluctuations could create huge Tsunamis at the US exchanges…..
I see we are having a political discussion and this isn’t even Jakes blog
Fly is getting too excited over tomorrow’s pre-perceived decline
Jake
You have your own values that are unique to you. I call you cement head becausr you choose to ignore what i tell you, in favor of idiotic insults.
You can worry about politics. I have zero, and i mean zero, respect and reverence for the process.
Abdicating responsibilty?
That would be true, only if my little vote meant something. They are nothing more than actors. Policy has been decided way before you and your overzelous friends go door to door, begging for votes.
Sorry, my friend, but the Bildernerg conspiracy is an easy out to claim you have no responsibility. Its only one step away from Spooky’s forgiving himself for his authoritarian statist desires by claiming “racism made me do it.”
Face it, you’re a busy guy, and claiming that the Queen of England and 11 other crypto- Zionists rule the world is just a way to evade personal responsibility for your own situation. Its perfectly reasonable human nature, and as common as Spooky’s desire for thee State to fix all “national problems” by fiat.
Ironically, it is these authoritarian paradigms that are in fact historical and “Neanderthal.” it is the Great Experiment of individual sovereignity ensconced in our unique Constitution that is historically “radical” and “progressive.”
Spooky and Co make way for the next Man in Charge, like slaves have done from time immemorial.
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Don’t you people realize politicians are there to represent the masses, i.e. the complacent. Those that cannot do weigh on the government and thus that is to whom they appeal. The soapboxes and debates are acting gigs, best performed by the most eloquent. “Smart” people don’t have a voice or a vote in the common folk sense, they must read the environment and learn how to best exploit the new rules. That’s America. I’ve never voted and most likely never will. It’s a time inefficiency.
True that …. despite all Jake’s bitchin’, he’s figured out how to profit in the market and will adjust and profit in personal business as well by adjusting to the new rules as you’ve said. That’s the game we play … adapting to the the Party in Power. It’s all BS!
Unfortunately, you two are both correct.
Sadly, the American system as it currently exists, is fatally flawed. It’s impossible for participants in a flawed system to craft and execute a solution.
Imagine being a stellar employee with a great boss in the best department in the company. ‘Only thing is, executive management bk’d the company. All that employee’s hard work was for naught.
Getting caught up in politics at this time is a waste of time. “read and exploit”
Real hmmm
Amen to that.
SHANGHAI’S key stock index dropped to 3-week low in the morning session on concerns that banks may be ordered to raise their capital adequacy ratios and interest rates to combat inflation……………..
Teahouse
Very true. Jake is an excellent investor and has outperformed everyone on ibc
Indeed, I ignore all of Jake’s political rants; but follow his investment strategy.
Regardless of what side you are on, polarization isn’t funny anymore. Our lowest emotions are being played upon. We don’t need China, Iran to take this country down. Our growing internal hatred is our tinder box.
Best thread of the season.
Jake for President!
Barring that, Rand Paul!
Not to change the subject or anything but the Rays have a new name for Derek Jeter- Derek Cheater.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12117903&topic_id=11493214
Rays’ fans turning into RaySox Nation? I thought you guys were better than that. Besides, the Rays won the game. The baseball gods were appeased. Just watch out for that series with the Orioles.
Good one, although, it would be tough to beat the whining BoSox fans.
Maybe, in another 50 years of Rays ball (if they don’t move).
All in all though it was one of the better series (Rays v Yanks) I have seen in a long time.
It was karma that Dan Johnson hit the homer(s) to win.
He did the same thing on the same day two years ago against the BoSox, who aren’t dead yet this year.
Next week with Rays coming to Yankee stadium should be another good one.
Bring a sweater!
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Maybe this was alreay metioned, but a few mistakes in your data:
Sep (mtd) +7%, not 4.3%
Aug -4.9%, not -0.6%