iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts

Winning While Losing

VXX was down a smidgen. BAC mini goose-stepped higher and TZA was flat. And, to boot, FTK was up a little. My day, essentially, was a grande waste of time. However, I did take on a new position in SCO, entirely bearish on the near term prospects of the black gold. Fuck “the black gold” and everything it stands for.

I can relay my message of doom to you in many different ways. However, I will choose this one:

Within one month’s time, the market will be markedly lower from today’s closing price. You do not need to second guess me or follow my leadership. However, you must respect a man, such as myself, who is willing to speed dice carrots, all the while his testicles are present on the chopping board with. It’s not important for me that you make money, as success is gratifying enough for me. But, you will understand my methods and they will be documented here for the world to see, as these scriptures will one day be added to the Book of King James.

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111 comments

  1. Truth

    FIG

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  2. vegastrader

    FDIC

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  3. BernieCorfeld

    “But, you will understand my methods and they will be documented here for the world to see, as these scriptures will one day be added to the Book of King James.” Verily and Forsooth!

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  4. Vinnie the Greek

    the question is, when they are added to king james will fly still be with aforementioned male reproductive parts. or will they be carrot garnish……

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  5. Cash-N-Guns

    the masses are being positioned to be de-balled in a pakistani like goat slaughter house…

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  6. Bullish

    “who is willing to speed dice carrots, all the while his testicles are present on the chopping board with”
    Simply reading that line makes me curl into the fetal position.

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  7. wilmer

    Fly- May I suggest the slap-chop? Much safer. And Vince swears you’ll love his nuts.

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  8. RW

    So it is written.
    So shall it be done.

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  9. TraderCaddy

    NSM beat on the earnings a bit and revenue was light.
    It dragged SMH and TXN down in the AH- conference call at 4:30.
    Will affect chips tomorrow.
    Several questions re the Fly Chapter: Will it be between Luke and Corinthians 2?
    Do all the bibles at all of the motels/hotels have to be returned to add Fly?
    Will it be available on Kindle?

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  10. tm

    Please fix the grammar in the “speed dice” sentence. It’s comedy gold, and I wouldn’t want the concept or imagery to be marred by less than perfect wording. Good day.

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    • The Fly

      WRONG AGAIN. The bad grammar of that sentence is done on purpose. This here is BLOGGING ART, not English class.

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      • tm

        There is NOTHING artistic about a hanging preposition! However, a hanging PROPosition wouldn’t be so offensive, like “Hey do you want to use this blood-stained knife to dice your carrots?…I don’t know who it belongs to.”

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  11. Grim Reaper

    If you are a month early with a product like TZA, you are toast.

    Pure insanity.

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    • The Fly

      Toast with bongo jam is my favorite food.

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    • Gunners

      The Fly is neither early nor late. He’s right the fuck on time, even when it seems he’s early or late.

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    • Asteroids

      I’ve held TZA for an extended period of time and made money. You need patience and conviction. I may not agree with Mr. Le Fly all the time but it takes guts to state a position. Bravo Fly.

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  12. Itchy & Scratchy

    I didn’t even know there was a book of King James.

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    • alphadawgg

      The Fly is testing your scriptural illiteracy. There is no “Book of King James”. There is an Epistle of James, and it is an Epistle of warning to the rich, the proud, the haughty—-basically, those who frequent this here blog who are remiss and fail to pay due respect where respect is, indeud, due. End of lesson.

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  13. ruggyup

    True is it that the first chapter according to Fly will be produced in draft form at an insignificant private printery in Gainesville, FL? And will the accompanying song book feature an intro by Frank Sinatra…….Come Fly With Me?

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  14. stkfulano

    wtf is “the market”? there are 10’s of thousands of market we are dealing with every day between the nasdaq and nyse alone. They adjust those index compositions like crazy every quarter

    I hate that fucking term “the market” .. stop it.

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  15. ConcernedTesticleSurvivor
    ConcernedTesticleSurvivor

    “However, you must respect a man, such as myself, who is willing to speed dice carrots, all the while his testicles are present on the chopping board”

    Difference being, a man of prudence NEVER, ever presents his testicles on the chopping board for dicing. The family jewels are and always remain the family jewels. Even if trading varied longs/shorts; and even if hedged. It WILL hurt nonetheless should said testicles get lopped off. I’m not a big fan of that.

    That said, the Fly (and I use the capital F as in Fly out of respect) is able to extricate himself from these situations, then more power to him.

    We could go still higher before a reverse in trend occurs. 1120 max if the bears are still in charge. Above that, the bears should be ready to cut losses quickly and look for re-entry at higher prices.

    Anything above 1120 and the bulls will be squealing with enjoyment as the bears are a gettin’ squeezed (and likely de-balled).

    Be prepared.

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  16. The Bear

    The Fly is clueless. Last month he made a similar prediction – The markets would collapse in late Aug or early September. Now the crash is predicted for October. If not – then certainly November. Sure. Some day. Then the retards will claim FIG and the chief moron will claim – the PPT wins again.

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    • alphadawgg

      Bear,

      You sound somewhat skeptical.

      This here blog is all about banking coin and beating on one’s chest when one is fortuitously correct with his/her “market” (sorry, psycho stkfulano) calls.

      Roll with it, dude.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      How have you not ban banned yet?

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    • Ghetto'd

      Pay no attention to the longer term market predictions (snapshots). Those are guaranteed to change. Instead focus on the Fly’s trades. That’s where the money is made.

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    • jmmpangaea

      LMAO

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  17. Quint

    Fly, you’re confusing me. Beginning of the week you thought we would pullback 1-2% by the end of Sept. Now, we are going to be “markedly lower” within one month’s time? Are you getting more bearish, or saying the same thing?

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    • enigma

      The Fly is saying the same thing, even when he appears to be changing his mind. Do not question the Fly’s integrity, nor his advanced telekinetic powers of market wizardry.

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    • The Fly

      What Alpha said. Roll with it dude.

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      • Quint

        I just wouldn’t call a 1-2% drop, “markedly lower”. 10% – that is markedly lower. 1-2% isn’t even worth positioning for. I say we are in the 40pt up per day time period, similar to March 2009, given the PPT had the most readings below 2.30 during August, than during Jan/Feb 2009. The bearishness about this market and the economy is astronomical.

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  18. Joe Byden

    FIAP.

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  19. london

    I think Fly’s methods, while indeed space alien magician-like, are better memorialized by a move rather than a Book — “Methods? I dont see any… method … here at all” But at least he gets to smear mud all over his face and go home in the end, carrying a ludicrously huge machete.

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  20. T-Bone

    Does Mrs. Fly use those carrots to cook with? I’ll bet that’s a tasty salad!

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  21. TheLord

    And it came upon me that there is one named Fly who belongs in the Good Book. And his teachings shall appear in the Old Testament right after Genesis and the word of Fly shall be the word of Wall Street. And Fly said to his followers: “Be fruitful and multiply like Fly’s profits and spread the word that ye shall succeed only if the Word of Fly is followed.” And Fly said: “Be kind to the beasts as they know naught and treat the DevilDog as evil for he seeks to steal thy hard work.” And thus the Book of Fly shall be for now and forever.

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  22. ayatollah of FASarollah
    ayatollah of FASarollah

    “Within one month’s time, the market will be markedly lower from today’s closing price.”

    blasphemy…..

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  23. Le Fly

    Lol at the lord

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  24. rookie

    Thanks for adding fuel to the fire via SCO. Unfortunately oil traders are the best hucksters around.. right when you think the end is near … Long 10,000 UCO @ 9.12, May the best man win… Futures are showing oil is up 75cents already.

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    • alphadawgg

      rookie,

      I hate to break it to you, but oil prices must eventually come down. The price structure is such that contango has widened much more than when “recovery summer” started. This is a bearish indication.

      The oil market in a widening contango means that producers, refiners and other miscreant “traders” are bidding for storage—due to the glut of oil…… OR, they are arbitraging, buying the near month, taking delivery to storage, and selling the forward futures, thus locking in a profit on the carry.

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      • contango

        Indeud!

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        • vegastrader

          Definitely. Americans has switched out their gas guzzlers in favor of small high mileage cars and they are driving less so what to do with all the extra gas?

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    • Ghetto'd

      We will find out soon enough.

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  25. Le Fly

    Rookie

    But i have mathematical history on my side and you have nothing.

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  26. No. 1

    Extreme VIX futures cantango anyone?

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    • arch

      oil futures dropping are good for the economy at this point in time..everybody will be able to fill their oil tanks this winter @ $ 0.99 per gal

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  27. Earl Blasphemy

    But, but, but, Scott says approach April high before cold weather.

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  28. arch

    looks like some of you FAS players got your jollies off today..dont forget where you profited from…

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    • arch

      it is going back up so be cautious when selling it… because it will cost you more to get back in and it can move in a hurry …just a word from the wise

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  29. arch

    10500 or 10800 ??

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  30. No One

    Fly,

    If we were to break the downtrend line, would that make you turn bullish?

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  31. Le Fly

    Liar

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  32. Rigged

    What could have caused it??????????

    Report: Flash Crash a mystery
    09/09/11
    Reuters – Regulators probing the stock market “flash crash” last May still have not uncovered a single cause but will point to “stub quotes” and other previously identified issues as having exacerbated the market’s dramatic drop, according to two sources familiar with the probe

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPVg9WUc2U8&feature=related

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  33. HuggieBear

    Well Fly you seem so adamant on this point that i’m going to start liquidating my 401k beginning tomorrow in quarters. I am up in my 401k 10% on the year, which is a minor miracle in such a hamstrung construct in a market like this, that I will not risk, and i shall not suffer, an imminent decline.

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  34. Bman

    New tunes for the Fly… Frontline Assembly, from my neck of the woods… Vancouver BC.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDKG5De_8js

    TZA all the way! This shit is moving higher.

    Cheers!

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  35. Ghetto'd

    I thought I lived in a nice area. I went to the gym last night, as I usually do. I was later than normal, 8ish & it was less crowded – the beach crowd won’t be back till Jan (for 1 wk) and then in earnest again in May/June.

    You know you’ve been ghetto’d when:

    Anywho, as I get to my car – the passenger window glass is on the ground & front seat – wtf. Even worse, they ripped the f’n key cylinder out of the door – fuckers. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S4Dtx-gBOY
    Don’t they know; this shit doesn’t happen around here or to me.
    Fuck that noise / distraction. Re-focus, back to work.

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    • Ghetto'd

      I forgot to add. I didn’t have time to get anything fixed today, so I drove around with the window smashed out and the key cylinder ripped out – nice. 🙂 That “ghetto”.

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    • Yabollox

      This is why I don’t go to the gym.

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    • Bman

      Teenagers take lock cylinders out of doors because they don’t know how to open a door. The repair is usually more expensive than what was stolen — bondo, re-paint, new lock, labor, time…. you got double-fucked because they also broke the window — that was vandalism. Somebody doesn’t like you.

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      • Po Pimp

        If the window is shattered, why bother with taking the lock cylinder out? Kind of like some one locking their keys in a convertible with the top down.

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  36. No One

    Strange vibrations are all around us….

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  37. Le Fly

    I will eat your livers.

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  38. alphadawgg

    You’ve been watching too many Anthony Hopkins movies.

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  39. Yabollox

    IBD has BAC in their bottom 200.

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  40. The_Real_Hmmm

    Here’s an interesting trade idea I found tonight: GEF.

    Today TIN, a producer of paper products and containerboard, was upgraded. The paper industry has been popping up recently on industry ranking lists I frequently watch. The note for TIN cited low inventories, high demand, tight manufacturing capacity keeping prices rising, and three increases in containerboard prices over the year that have put it above $150/ton. It was noted in a Barron’s article that TIN can leverage the paper price increase but IP looks better. Also today SSCC was upgraded reflecting strong containerboard demand. Using resources the Fly and I have, I found all companies that produce and sell containerboard. The relevant results are IP,TIN, GEF, PKG, RKT, and SSCC.

    Valuation-wise GEF is very attractive with its low relative and absolute P/E, its low float, and the fact that >60% of revenues are derived from industrial containerboards used in auto, industrial, equipment, and steel among others. I think we all know those are the strongest sectors right now and the primary target for growth as anticipated from Obama’s tax credit proposal speech. They recently reported net income increases of 75%, revenue gains of 28% y/y, and raised outlook. It was downgraded by two different firms in late 2009 and upgraded once in Feb 2010. It is more than due for an upgrade considering the other players in the industry. In June 2010 that $60 resistance line was rejected due to insider selling and probably parrots shitting on the paper or something.

    I think GEF is a buy here with intention to sell when it breaks above that strong line at $60, or MORE.

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  41. baron kurtz

    I don’t get this I win you lose mentality – this isn’t a game -why make making money a competition? Compete with yourself, beat yourself up – yeah I get that.

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  42. Market Timer

    Good call on SCO though maybe a day early.

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  43. Jakegint

    What are the scientists thinking?

    ______

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    • The Mad Scientist

      “I didn’t say anything. It’s just the voices in your head… don’t listen to them.”

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      • The Mad Scientist

        lol – damn gravatar!

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        • Jakegint

          I had a link that accompanied that but it got swallowed by the Vincenzanator Machine.

          It was about the scientists teaching robots to trick humans… my punch line, in the link was “Goldman has been teaching its robots this kind of stuff for years!

          _______

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  44. KeyLimePie

    Now that we are already 6% into it!

    “Equity markets have performed with remarkable consistence following midterm elections, with a median gain of 1.4% from September to Election Day and a 14.7% median performance in the six months following Election Day. This positive return was seen 18 of 22 times since 1920 (or 82%). We believe this reflects voter referendums – that is, if Congress sees a shift in majority (markets are relieved) and if there is no change, the result is a more “centrist” Washington. Returns were consistent, incidentally, whether midterms resulted in change of majority (gains 5 of 6 times, median gain of 11%) or no change in party majority at all (gains 13 of 16 times, median gain of 17.3%).” – JPM

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  45. bubo

    I think the title should be Loosing while Winning…

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  46. buylo

    oh yeah, let’s go all in TZA, VXX and SCO, we’ll all get rich, we’ll do lunch with the GS execs!

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  47. Russian Saylor

    don’t fuck with oil….
    next time: Practice safe sex lmao

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  48. francesco

    Mr.!
    congrats with your take on oil 😉

    best contrarian ever..

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  49. wilmer

    As soon as this fucker stops talking the market is going to take off.

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  50. Bullish

    Is this the most boring speech ever?

    I should listen to Jake and just go to the movies between 11 – 2

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  51. FIG

    This is the lightest trade volume I have ever seen. Maybe Fly will be right next week, but in a no volume tape, it always seems to go higher.

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  52. TraderCaddy

    I have the sound down on the tube but am reading the captions.
    My take is that our present economic situation is Bush’s fault and if the economy does not recover it will be the other side’s fault.

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    • francesco

      ditto , poor Obama , inheriting decades of yuppies/idiots administration.

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      • Testicules

        You forgot to thank a Muslim…for being Muslim..it’s important….to a Muslim…One just told me so

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  53. Dayman

    This afternoon has the potential to be very red. I foresee a “I told you fuckers, the fly never loses” post near the close.

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