I told you before “I have no fucking idea what to expect.” For this reason, for the better part of 2010, I’ve been holding record amounts of cash, sometimes as much as 60%. While some of my peers claim to know what the fuck is transpiring, I am here to tell you I know how to control confusion better than anyone you have ever met. The market is a mess and no one is safe, long or short. So, in order to stay on the offensive, it’s important to think like a hunter and not prey.
I will have you know, as we speak, “The Fly” is dressed in camouflage garments, covered in mud, aiming his scope at your bullshit Zeeco accounts.
The breadth is too poor today to stay committed to a 3x ETF like TNA. So I sold it and bought TZA, without emotion. Additionally, I added to my VXX and sold X, due to distinct cracks in the surface of the Earth.
Going forward, I expect more of the same. Perhaps we will sell off tomorrow morning, then sprint higher. If so, I will be prepared with my empty bag, in order to collect all of the fucking money that will be tossed my way. My largest directional long bets are EWZ and FLS. It’s also worth mentioning, I have an appetite for TSO. I’ve been buying it all day long.
In summary, “The Fly” may not be making money today, but he’s having a “fuckload” of fun trying to rip the skin off your tits. Plus anyway, I am not done positioning myself for the coming circus. Be patient, and within a week, you will see “The Fly” kill it, in real time, as always.
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FIG…hope I’m 1st
This market is going to crash hard. Its only a matter of time. Those of you still willing to hold significant long positions are playing with fire. This feels like late-2007 all over again–the market is ignoring the flashing warning signs on the economy, for now. But when it decides not to anymore, look out below.
Market crashes don’t happen every other year.
They do on Zero Hedge
True… Not usually… But sometimes they happen even more often than every other year.
lots of Deflation, some reflation, more deflation some reflation is the pattern.
1720,1721 (south sea company)
1837-1843 (abolishment of federal reserve… judging by political trend thanks in large part to Ron Paul, fed could be abolished sometime in the future)
1852-1857 (panic of 1857)
1929-1933 (great depression)
Not sure, but 70s stagflation era could very easily have been a prolonged crash if not for removal of gold standard
S&P+dow 2000,2001,2002.
nasdaq 2000 -2002
(nikkii) 90s to present,
2007-???
Actually, public sentament is probably too negative for that to happen, but I could see an “end the fed” campaign as the deflationary wildcard come election time 2012.
I agree. The Fed’s little charade is about up.
There was a ton of bullishness at the 2007 highs. Nowadays every media/tv “analyst” is bearish or cautious. That’s not what you want to see before a big crash. Optimism causes crashes. Pessimism causes chop, or slow grinds higher.
strongly agree with panama here.
bah
Mark Twain said history rarely repeats itself but frequently rhymes…….remember the 80’s…..relax
You Are God
Thanks Blogfather…….for letting me in the temple
Oy Vey!! The Fly is Jewish? Or Buddhist? Or Hindu?
House of Coin
in Harlem
that would be rev al sharpton’s house of devotion.
There’s that Maybach Music…
I am about to rape and fucking pillage. This market will be at 1100 by weeks end. And I am going to murder artards on the way up.
Everyone is getting too fucking cozy with this trading range,…..and EVERYONE expects when it does break it will break to the down side.
Well, how about we crack the 200 on the upside first, to lure every numnut and granny in, only to turn around and plummet and plummet right to your very deaths.
Luckily I will be wearing a parachute.
Honestly….i think it was Soros who said he doesn’t really actively invest, he just waits around until he sees where someone has left some money lying on the floor in the corner. And then he walks over and picks it up.
Well, thats what I’m doing. I’m collecting piles of hundred dollar bills someone forgot and just left lying all over the floor today.
“he just waits around until he sees where someone has left some money lying on the floor in the corner. And then he walks over and picks it up.”
It was Jim Rogers who said that.
Yes, yes….of course.
Thanks
That was my roll of $100s on the floor! Please return post haste.
Jim Rogers Skypes me…just name dropping…..still am amazed at that.
He has a stupid bow tie. Tell him I said that.
lol…he is devil dog huh?..
Also, he is simultaneously short the dollar and long the dollar in every interview I’ve heard him in. Amazing gad fly he is.
come on….he is a heck of a trader
Good Lord, this market is confusing. I’m staying above the fray for a few days, until I see the churning ease a little.
VXX barely moving today….not hedging like it used to.
i mean, where the F is the fear?
I will grant that TLT is smoking.
Fear is and has been prevalent in the market ever since the flash crash = most everyone bought or has traded inverse ETFs in their portfolios. We have almost become immune to the extreme volatility of the markets because we’ve experienced & accepted it as “normal” behavior.
Since everyone is on guard for a big move down, it likely won’t happen just now. A back and forth oscillation within a trading range makes sense for an economy that continues to produce intermittent reports of strength & weakness.
Intermediate term (2-4 years) the trend is probably down, or at best, sideways. It remains an environment for skilled traders. Everyone else should reduce risk or just sit on their hands; or as ‘The Fly’ likes to say – go eat a sandwich.
vxx is being a Cunt.
Fuck yeah it is, are we just seeing retard in action due to contracts bgeing rolled out?
Government watchdogs told a Senate panel Wednesday that the Obama administration’s effort to help homeowners avoid foreclosure isn’t working and that the Treasury Department has failed to fix the program.
Special inspector general for the financial bailouts Neil Barofsky said the program has not “put an appreciable dent in foreclosure filings,” during a Senate Finance Committee hearing on the $700 billion bank bailout. He also said the Treasury Department has ignored earlier demands that it set clearer goals for the program.
Elizabeth Warren, who chairs a separate Congressional Oversight Panel on the bailouts, said Treasury’s failure to act more quickly could be hurting the recovery.
More foreclosures could force down the price of homes and further hurt the already-ailing housing industry.
The homeownership program aims to reduce mortgage payments for millions of homeowners who can’t afford their monthly bills. Recent data suggest it has helped about 400,000 households avoid foreclosure. About 530,000 have fallen out of the program.
The bailout has provided up to $50 billion for the mortgage modification programs. So far, about $248 million in bailout money has been spent on the program.
Barofsky said Treasury is giving mortgage companies too much leeway to decide which homeowners will qualify for a program to reduce the principal balance of their mortgages.
The program relies on voluntary cooperation from mortgage companies, Warren said. She said many of the mortgage debt collectors make more money when they foreclose than they do when helping homeowners.
“We have a crisis, and the consequences of not having cooperation from (mortgage) servicers is . . . felt by this entire economy,” Warren said. “We need a program with far more urgency and some real teeth in it.”
Also appearing at the hearing is a leader of the Government Accountability Office.
Their three offices are designated to provide transparency and oversight for the bailout program that Congress passed in October 2008.
Most of the financial bailout programs have ended as the financial system regained its footing. Treasury lent out a total of $385 billion from the $700 billion fund. As of June 30, about $198 billion had been repaid, according to the independent Government Accountability Office.
Treasury also has collected $25 billion in fees and interest payments from companies that received money.
President Barack Obama was preparing Wednesday to sign into law the most sweeping rewrite of financial regulations since the 1930s. The law includes changes aimed at reassuring Republicans, who worry the bailout fund could become permanent.
The size of the fund is reduced to $475 billion from $700 billion. Money that has been repaid must be used to repay the national debt, rather than expanding other programs. And the overhaul blocks Treasury from using the money to create new programs.
actually, the law has worked.
at least a bunch of lawyers and government workers have new work.
The only thing holding the market up at these levels is “faith” that the Fed can wave a magic wand to keep the US economy from falling back into recession. Little do they know there are no more bullets left in the gun.
I’ll take a double rocket fuel hold the olive
TLT is your tell
It is not only my tell, but also 25%of my portfolio.
How is this for asshattedness ….i just hedged in my TLT at 101
lol this shit has gone bonkers….had to though i’ve made too much coin on TLT already. Can’t see it disappear, and it could!
Has any one noticed TLT?
Dude Uncle Ben said unusually uncertain. Thats 2 un’s with an usual … Holy shit … Run … Hide … Zero hedger just had an uber orgasm!
Btw, that also means the fed has no fucking idea what’s happening. Anyone who tells you is lying … Maybe apart from the PPT … Till it is no longer the shrine for truthiness …
>>While some of my peers claim to know what the fuck is transpiring… The market is a mess and no one is safe, long or short. <<
The reason this market is so choppy on the way down is that everyone with a brain in his head sees the rapidly deteriorating macro picture and knows where this economy is headed. Thus, the market isn't going to be so accommodating as to go STRAIGHT down. My suggestion (for those traders/investors with more than a day-to-day perspective) is that you get short and stay that way for a while, cover when we get grossly oversold, and then get short again when the oversold conditions are gone. Otherwise, you will get whipsawed to shreds.
Where do you go when we have multiple up days? or when we have bounced well above the early June lows and held above them for a month +?
“Multiple up days” don’t bother me, to a point. Depending upon how leveraged you are (and right now, I’m VERY), I’d take some leverage off the table if the SPX makes it above 1096 (which was the cross point for the 50-day EMA down over the 200-day EMA), and probably some more if the SPX takes out the 1031 high of 6/21. At that point, I’d just stay as short as I could be without incurring leverage, because I think we all know where this thing is eventually going, so the key will be to hang on long enough to get there. If anyone cares, I’ve explicitly laid out how I’m playing this thing in real-time in a series of “Instablogs” over on SA. Here they are, and one needs to read the comments for each entry, too, as I’ve often added to (or covered a bit of) the positions along the way, and noted those changes in the comments: http://seekingalpha.com/author/logical-thought/instablog
You got a valid point there. Reason why people get confused is because they mix investing or long term time frames with short term time frames. For example, (a) intermediate term – when macro is looking shitty, you put bearish bets for intermediate time frame. (b) short term – when sentiment gets too bearish, you put bullish bets for a much shorter time frame, (c) long term – when fed keeps getting dovish and government intervening due to elections, etc, you put bullish bets on a 6 month to a year time frame. Of course there are many other factors. But the point of this example is – pick your time frame and then play the game.
LMLP
http://new.music.yahoo.com/earth-wind-fire/videos/view/shining-star–2147926
What the hhhhhell is that smell? Are you sure that’s mud you’re covered in senor mosca?
I sold 1/4 of my position in RWM literally at 1:50 Eastern time. About 10 minutes before the waterfall decline started. Luckily the market started plunging before I could get the orders in to sell the remaining 75%.
fid
I made $5.20 today after all commissions. That equates to .0025%. How fucking sucky is that.
I started the day short, when you were all long. I went long right at the bottom. and then sold my longs on a bounce. Well WTF….i fucked up somewhere.
Let’s see….. .0025% compounded daily is……If i keep this up i will earn .9% annualized. Thats POINT NINE, not NINE.
bastards
$5.20 is .0025% of $8000.
You must have went to Yale.
Have went? (sic)
______
Touche, salesman.
It’s 0.0025% of $208,000 if my math is correct…
and it is.
You forgot to factor in commissions on that profit margin……just sayin…….
why you post the cops video fly? BMF = big mac w/ fries
Yesterday, market down 150 on bad earnings, ends up 75. Today, market up 50, on good earnings, ends down 110…lots of giration for nothing…welcome to the summer market….we’ll be within 2% of 1070 come the last two weeks of August when everyone starts setting up for the Sept/Oct move…in other words, we are going nowhere. Go do some Shaaarkin..
FLY
Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 1:09 am 11
“Based upon the laws of mathematics, the following stocks are poised to move higher, over a 5 day time frame”
Brilliant!
“Stay focused and quit reading so much Zero Hedge; it’s bad for your portfolio.”
You diarrhea infested camel rapist.
How dare you question brilliance!.
Go stick your penis in your PPT wall socket.
5 days chief
Huh? No ban?
He knows he insulted brilliance.
Unbanned at last! zh is a better blog than this will ever be.
The News for Thursday
As Markets fall across the Globe, Traders position themselves for steep declines…..
08:31 am E.S.T.
Today’s Unemployment Numbers (est 449k) come in @ 389k
(Media scream evidence of economic tournaround)…or was it reach-around..?
Whatever
Markets soar as BB uses big words and Media struggles with Interpretation to find ” REAL” meaning…(How do we spin this or “Bamaspeak” for the rest of U)
Bears get last nut removed and quickly switch positions to go Long and recoup lost/last aggressive …roll of dice
Shortly before close of London session…the Brits put it together and sell off in mad panic plunging DOW into triple digit death roll
2 more asians jump out of window at Foxconn…completely unrelated….had something to do with “No strip Club Policy”
The sun sets later in day…followed by darkening period with a chance of light rain, heavy at times with possible thunder and lightening or calm cool and humid …or not
can someone explain to me why NFLX is down 9% after beating earnings?
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10813372/1/netflix-weak-sales-cause-concern.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Despite the strong results and indications that momentum is on its side, results were overshadowed by weak sales of $519.8 million, which were shy of Wall Street’s forecast of $524 million.
Could be an indication that some folks don’t even have the smack to rent a movie?
Why do you never speak of eating large bowls of oatmeal anymore?
Zh is a great blog. But they cant hold a fucking candle to me when it comes to banking coin. They are like news anchors with a parabolic twist
On a weekly chart, things look clearer.
Still a bit bearish here, but In order to find a good entry point to go long equities again, I don’t think I will have to wait too long.
Charismatic, Brilliant.
I used to read Zero Hedge, I swapped them out for IBC, Fly is much more balanced and actually correct with his information.
Cascadian – lol
You need math classes!
I read here ever so often because I have a freind who posts a lot here.
With (VXX) , it has support at the trough of 24.03 and new more recent low of 24.37.
If your buying Either look to cut losses at 24.00 or 23.33 is the most room I could give it.
VIX better to watch has support also at trough 22.87 , 22-23 for a range to give it a little room If it broke 22.00 I would bail other then that it looks good.
For those who say it can’t be charted its chart goes pretty close pattern wise hand and hand with VIX.
I’m not a member here at all ,Trade on my own with my own weird methods, I just do better that way, nothing against anyone here at all just my own way works for me.
Mr. FLY man keep up the good work!
You do help out a lot of confused people here .
I know its hard coming from Brooklyn lol(me 2) , but all I can say negative is try to be nicer to amateurs or newbies who know nothing.
Other then that I respect your work .
lets all just admit that we have to daytrade this fracking market…..until the Fed game of printing dollars to cancel all short term debt with long term debt ends in a massive fiasco this market has no direction…..holding a position for over two days is risky as hell…..I agree with the TLT tell …..this is poker and when bonds finally crack this market will have found a true long term trend…DOWN….until then I will take my short gains intraday trading on SPY..IWM….GLD…..there is enough volatility intraday these days to play the short term trade game
Small shit that I am I did buy 10 TBT Aug 35 calls @ 1.04 today. Just trying to trade for enough cash to afford an IBC membership. Fingers crossed.
Just kick back and rock out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xoke1wUwEXY&feature=related
Thanks. Good tune. They look wholesome, healthy, good natured– as if they don’t need prescription or street drugs to get out of bed in the morning and function. I wonder if that was actually true. I remember those olden days when some singers at least looked wholesome.
this is what i like to see nobody trusts anybody…since i hear how stocks trade at a multiple of earnings or their value..im thinking since GS has traded @ 1x what ever it was worth i might get back in when the rest fall into this guideline…the whole idea of 5x to 12x earnings seems high in a recession and maybe a tell to your greed and stupidity
nothing personal
Doesn’t matter what multiple of earnings a stock trades at today. Matter what people expect for the future. If they expect a double dip recession, then the future P/E is going to become quite high, because the future E will fall down, as consumers spend less money.