Like believing in God or Santa Claus, faith is required when investing. Whether you are long or short, you need to believe in something in order to have conviction. Let me tell you right now, without conviction, you are not going anywhere. You will fail.
Right now, if you are bullish, you have faith in the Fed and low rates super charging the economy. You believe, due to low rates and an accommodative Fed, we will reflate ourselves the fuck out of this giant mess, regardless of inflationary dangers. If you are a bear, you have faith in human error and all of the chickens coming home to roost NOW. Being bearish requires a certain type of brain, one that is disconnected from the “matrix” and able to turn a disaster into a profit. Not too many people are able to do that effectively.
There is a third camp, one that is reserved for the most distinguished men on Wall Street: the sandwich camp.
If you are into not giving a fuck about the bulls and the bears and only interested in banking coin, then now is the time to eat a sandwich, dressed with very little condiments, might I add. This is my camp. I have no loyalty to anything but the bottom line. I do not care about your catalyst, only the end result.
With regards to this tape: we are OVERSOLD and due for a bounce. However, I am afraid there are many fucked up mountain roads to navigate before we are out of imminent danger. I will not sell any of my longs, unless we climb 2-4% from here. Conversely, I will not sell my VXX, unless we dive 2-4% from current levels. Essentially, now is the time to do nothing.
UPDATE: I sold out of FAZ and bought 10,000 TNA @ $35.65.
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I think I’m first, and I think we melt up from here for the next week or so. That’s as far out as I can see. TNA is the vehicle.
Faith and Sandwiches ….
What happens when you take a down an out ex-priest, a meshuganah ex-rabbi, and put them together in a deli? Comedy Gold, that’s what. Coming this fall from the producers of Honey, I Shrunk My Portfolio. Exclusively on FOX.
Indeud!
Indowd.
werd
texas guy got me nervous bout my longs.
maybe i should hedge and do nothing too….
nah…
I am a great believer in human error. It’s probably the only thing in the world I can bet on and sleep as a baby ever after. I have this wisdom, for I am from sales, and claim to know the human nature better than any shrink out there.
I’m going Long Sandwich Makers…
Indeud.
ne body ever watch its always sunny in philadelphia ?
that shit is pretty hillarious
right now I am eating a shit sandwich that tastes a little like almond butter.
Deflationary fears have a vise grip on the market’s testicles.
It is concerning to some, not all, that the adjusted monetary base has been falling this year….
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s1id=BASE&s1range=1yr
…factoring in that M1, cash in circulation + bank deposits, has been on the increase…
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s1id=M1&s1range=1yr
…..were it not for the growth in M1, the adjusted monetary base would have seen even more of a decline this year, no?
An increase in M1, cash, if this trend continues, points to people have a “saving” and “hoarding” mentality. This is deflationary, as we now are progressively having fewer dollars chasing the same amount of goods, this coming on the heels of a build up in the inventory cycle
The bond market is telling us that deflation is here. We shouldn’t try to make it any more complicated than that.
Sorry about the initial reference to “testicles”, while you’re eating a sandwich.
Have a nice day
Great post….with my training I can see both sides of the arguement and not so much a true believer in either one….yet, really am still learning that the Matrix is not so bright at all and I keep giving it way too much credit.