Who called this deflation trade better than HORATIO CLAWHAMMER aka “The Fly”?
Instead of building on the recovery, the world has decided to take away stimulus and impose harsh austerity measures, in order to support “the big lie” that inflation is a risk that may hinder economic growth. Well congratulations, fuckface, you have all but guaranteed a double dip recession, by way of using the “how to fuck up the economy, fast as fuck” handbook, written in 1932. On top of that, the financial reform bill is a fucking travesty of epic proportions that will further knee cap our banks’ abilities to lend money.
But this is all by design.
Our elected officials tell tales of China owning the United Steaks, via large treasury holdings. They talk about the dollar going down, due to inflation. To solve these issues, they demand “fiscal responsibility,” by way of harsh budget cuts, just two years removed from the biggest credit crisis since Hannibal fucked up Rome. Well, the end result, much to the delight of our low IQ Congress people, will be deflation—effectively funneling money into U.S. Treasuries, a la Japan. I told you this would happen and here we are now: it’s happening.
Like Japan, our debt will be financed internally, providing the spreads are attractive for our fucked up banks. Without a doubt, the share prices of our banks are zombified and offer little to no upside.
If the world does not change course and reintroduce unbridled stimulus, we will be feeling the pain of the 2008 credit contraction with great vigor, very, very soon. The end game is Dow 7,000 or lower. We will have up days and rumors of resurgence. But rest assured, we are being led towards economic death.
Trade accordingly.
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Hear hear, the rout is on.
FIG!
out of season, but you gotta see “A very Steve Perry Christmas” – Hilarious… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY8yPJVogUs
Sold my entire stake of FAZ for $17.04 apiece. Huge wins; I’ll elaborate/gloat later tonight.
thanks, I am greedy but I bought more at 16 this mourning (sic)
Thanks Master Fly.
good call, Horatio
Funny you say that, Fly. Lyndon LaRouche said something very similar in his weekly report.
Congress feels the most important thing in the world is that they get re-elected.
“Debt is a national security threat”, Stenny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi’s biotch.
That is ironic given that the most important thing in the world is that some of them don’t.
austerity? in the US? in an election year?
Tell that to the municipal budgets being forged now.
Well municipalities cant print money and run defecits like the Feds can.
And the US (i.e. Obama) seems to be the anti-austerity champion on the world stage right now. Europe seems uninterested.
(Ignore I misread)
Either way we are fucked. Weimar is no better than a deflationary vortex. There is no imbetween. When the world sees the abyss, they will print like mad gorillas that will bring $5k toilet paper to a store near you. This is the way it is going to be, allready etched in stone. Try convincing yourself other wise, go ahead.
Journey is a GREAT band. Roll down the windows, crank the FM station!
I can’t relate to this considering Yes, Judas Priest and and Ozzy Osbourne were in their prime around the same time.
Never compare Yes to Judas Priest again please
Indeed party like you’re in Detroit.
One of my favourite songs ever.
It’s the Mom-jeans, isn’t it?
___________
Political Market – Every time the bankers wanted a vote or provision for financial reform (they wrote the bill) they took the market hostage. Same thing on flash crash 5/6 and same thing today (Feingold and Brown will not vote for it as written).
Just bought SPY calls based on the science of ppt but concerned over the political reform bill. Realistically the banksters will water board the market until Uncle Sam screams Uncle.
When the heck are there going to be X10 leveraged ETFs! I think every day they should comeout with a new ETF more leveraged than the day before it. That way people can sell their last leveraged ETF and double their bets with the same amount of money minus whatever they lost. It’s just like playing roulette only better
Kudos due on the VXX call once again.
Re “Like Japan, our debt will be financed internally”
I heard that the Japanese have been big savers, and the US’ers, not
It will be bought by the FED with electrons and stay on their secret balance sheet.
Look again, US savings rate at 4% and climbing.
Hoarding mentality—-another deflationary signpost.
Gold + cash + fear + asshat politicians = market decline
4%!
Only 26% or so more to get to Japan-China status.
We’ll be there any minute now…
_____
So. Is this NOT the time to be buying distressed waterfront property on the Gulf of Mexico?
My Deflation Survival Handbook has only one entry: A picture of a guy bending over and kissing his a$$et$ goodbye. Not very helpful.
Bot BP and AGQ
See what happens…
My life is wonderful since I got some cash, some bonds and ViXXens.
Thanks for your S.A.M. market call.
Off to sing, dance, and play with wifey.
(S.A.M.= space alien magician)
Went from 2/8ths long to 6/8ths long.Technicals say we crash. Fundamentals say we crash.
Institutional money is bearish, and the public is bearish. So the question is, who is left to be stuck on the other side of this trade?
Ill stick with what I said 2 weeks ago–stair step decline. We cant go parabolic down, unless oil starts crashing. Until I see rahm ejected from the whitehouse, I doubt that Israel is going to slow their roll near Iran. And the oil drilling moratorium is still in place.
Israel won’t go to Iran soon – they’re just negotiating. They don’t want to go now and they know that we don’t want them to do anything now. They’ll stand down after winning something additional (agreements and cash) from us. Seen this movie before.
Indeud!
I think we’re all bozos on this bus!
Crocodile-lurking-in-the-water patient waiting has paid off egregiously: out of TZA plus 18%. Still holding my VXX close to the heart–for the end of days it’s even better than a shotgun.
Kudos to Fly.
all the fuck i know is, is that there 454 mother fuckers with low IQ’s that run this fucked up country,and there are 300 million of us..so the question is.if 300 million people were to murder 454 bearshittin asshats.there wouldnt be a prison for all of us to fit in. cause this country is just like the old movie, escape from new york……..and the gopddamn fucking voting booth just aint cuttin it anymore…………..
Why do we keep electing these same dumb fuckers who put us in this position in the first place? We get what we deserve. Somehow, we all think we need to keep our own dumb shithead in office.
454 plus the military industrial complex that they’ve brainwashed to follow their orders.
The devil is in the details.
They were elected by those people.
A good start is to refuse to vote for anyone who supported the bailouts of the big banks/insurers …or for the reappointment of Bernanke.
They cannot be elected out. We need a Tale of Two Cities solution.
fly..Tale of Two Cities huh. dude, you just gave away your age lol.
I am 34. No secret there.
You are my long lost twin brother, apparently
Tale of Two Cities solution?
The fuggin Jacobins are already in power!
______
Don’t go there – tumbrils don’t roll like your Escalade, and that big metal thing that comes down on your neck really hurts for a second.
If voting really mattered, it would have been outlawed
Best comment on the page! Bar none!
Out of TZA at the end of the day.
Whenever testing a technical bottom – it will always undercut the target number a bit.
I think that was a short term successful test. Should bounce from here
Now that Obama will be meeting with Mr. Bernanke daily… the Plunge Protection Team should resurface to calm the nerves
For some reason watching the market standing on the event horizon looking into the abyss of the coming blackhole, I get excited. Where as in 2008 I was freaked out, buying up rice and oatmeal andammo and stuff. Now I don’t even care anymore and think it’s kind of funny, although I have no idea why.
Desensitization.
Indeud. It’s a scary feeling. I feel like I need to drive out to all my secret cache locations across the southwestern US and pick up my guns, water, and foodstuffs.
You’ve been possessed by a diabolical entity.
The stimulus provides nothing sustainable– it simply alleviates the short-term pain while adding to the debt and increasing the long-term pain. This country has been partying without being able to pay the bar tab; it’s unfair to dump that tab on generations yet unborn.
(Thanks, Fly– I’ve always wanted to use the phrase “generations yet unborn”.)
It makes no sense to find religion all of a sudden, after decades of partying. This is not the time to stop spending.
yes its time to continue with the Keynesian policies at this point of the game, all in must be the play here, do not check call in this situation.
Do little Johnny and Janey Fly want to pay for the party? They and their peers will be paying the bill. Will it make their lives better?
The above should be the test of any spending that we do.
Luckily Johnny Fly is a genius like his father.
Hopefully there will be some institutions of higher learning left standing by the time he’s ready to matriculate.
________
I’m not preaching here just talking …The bible is clear that not one is good enough, not even one to enter the kingdom of heaven. It is by gods grace that we our saved. There were lots of imperfect people in the bible. The bible says man looks at the outward appearance, but god look at the heart. I can see if a person has all the money, and his life is such, may feel like he doesn’t need anyone. One must discover the need?
Stop talking nonsense quoting bronze age philosophers. Go read a book. Anything.
So sorry Little jimmy, but this site is for people who like worldly pleasures, so get bent.
Certainly Cain and Indie are not good enough. 😉
_______
Indeud
Fly … nice call on the “4% Down Day” !
.
It’s an easy call for the Fly when you have the ability to time travel to the 4:00pm future then come back and trade accordingly
“green shoots”
What is that in your hand, a mezzuzah?
_____
I, for one, will party like it’s 1982 when it hits 7,000. For awhile, I was afraid they’d string the suffering out for so long that I’d be dead. Now, however, a reason to live….
The code word for tomorrow is, “dipswitch.”
are you fuckers all done trying to shake me out now ??
Lawmakers are now considering ending the TARP program early and using the money to help fund the new financial overhaul bill, CNBC has learned
WTF – Does anyone remember those debates back in Oct ’08? Could have sworn all those Congressional bastards said specifically that the TARP repayments would be used to pay down the national debt.
They simply lie to our faces… anyone who relects any of these morons needs their head examined
there seems to be some jawing going on about the removal of the bank tax…of course they will remove the tax..thats 1 of the reasons for my blissfulness on banks…
i do remember those conversations ..and thats what was said
So …
Are we paying the debt or are we bailing everybody out stimulus style with road, hospitals and business grant?
You can’t have it both ways…
As a part of the financing of debt internally the Government will require a percentage of ones 401K and or IRA be invested in Treasuries with some kind of an annuitization.
The plan is in the works.
Just don’t call it a confiscation, but rather a creative financial plan.
That plan will be presented as a way to protect people from losing their retirement funds in the stock market.
The inevitable must happen.
People should know that they can’t fuck with the immutable laws of nature: Ignorance and stupidity lead to poverty.
Death cross on the utes, telecom, healthcare, materials and energy sectors.
Five down, five to go.
Hmmm…seems “Moustachiod-Combover” has taken over board…
Troubling times?…
YES
Will the U.S. collapse into…nothing?
THINK AGAIN
When things get UTTERLY BLEAK, An emergency meeting G-20 or similar will take place…far far away from any possible disturbance and a “DEAL” will be set in place.
I call it “The Debt Summit”
Seriously…NO Country wants to go through another round of despair, cuz this time?
The shits serious..NO WINNERS
A deal will be concieved
A deal for what? No government on Earth has anything.
The only way out is for things to reset to sane valuations and debts be forgiven.
Back in the days of the Bronze age philosophers they had this figured out. It was a law of the land that every fifty years all debts were wiped to 0.00 and things started over. The Great Philosopher knew the people he had created and understood what messes they would make.
ROFL
a deal of what? between who? the french and the USA? china and germany? some country some other one… debtors with the creditors? consumers with the producers? wha? urgh… ?!?! wha?? what’s that special deal are you talking about? cause if you got a special deal that would benefit us all (or let say even a deal that would benefit the Elite) let us know.
there’s a no magic silver bullet. just a bullet to bite.
in the mean time.. i’m working on my saving account in order to drink my neighbors milkshake sometime in the future.
here here,left for work this am, saw futures b4 open, came home and browsed the blog and saw what time it was posted.sure as shit. he wasnt shittin, kudos fuckhead
Still FAZ’d out.
Still VXX’d out.
Staying the course I’ve been on.
I’m up large on both, but still holding.
Lower we go.
I’m with you on that one Mr. Pres. FAZ’d out; VXX’d out, and TZA’d out, hoping for another down day to unload!
But see, I’m going for a win of the large variety. I’ve been holding for weeks, and I won’t sell until south of DOW 9k.
if you’ve been holding VXX and FAZ for weeks obviously you need to wait longer…
… for them to be back in black.
that’s not an investment strategy, nor a sound day trade one.
now if you woulda said DOW 9k 1 months ago and initiated a short position in BP. that.. i would have tipped my hat.
saying lower we go on a day like today is moot.
i say we either go up or down tomorrow. and you know i’m right!
The last bump(s) didn’t scare me out of them; next one won’t either. We go lower.
Fly do you still hold C… I have 20% of my holdings in C hoping for a winner but based on today should I just sell and cut my losses or hold out?
Deflation will be good for some – The Fly for one – everything needs to go on sale for 25% off. Obama is Herbet Hoover – who would have believed it?
We have Fly but what about thems that don’t? Thems that writes on shithouse walls and on stock message boards posted, “Obama the 3rd Worse Performing Economic Leader..
behind Chavez, and Greece’s guy..” Nice quote. I’m asking for a hybrid score on the posted triad. Technical and fundamental scores are already obvious.
F#$* it I think i’ll dump everything keep 25% cash and go TZA the other 75% for 1 week then re-evaluate and listen to the FLY. Had i listend to the fly over the past month I’d be up at least 10% instead of down 33%
“Instead of building on the recovery, the world has decided to take away stimulus and impose harsh austerity measures”
Bwah-ha-ha! Bwah-ha-ha HA-HA-HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!
You nearly had me there! As if there were the remotest flicker of organic economic activity 🙂 Good one.
Vivid Bullish megaphone pattern in Dow, Nasdaq,and SPX daily charts.
I’m surprised no one else has noticed this. If it resolves as megaphones usually do, were going back to dow 10500. Its in the statistics.
http://tiny.cc/e7sq1
Haven’t you noticed that nothing is following the statistics?
Panama – Don’t you read any of the other bloggers here?
I read all the tabbed bloggers, every day.
All im saying is, Megaphone (broadening) patterns tend to resolve that way. They are a reliable pattern at tops, and bottoms.
http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/BestBullish&BearishPatterns.html#broadening_formations
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23502961/Chart-Patterns-and-Technical-Indicators
There is actually still a bearish side to this. We could potentially go test the upper trendlines of this pattern, then immediately rocket back down. The drawback to megaphones is, you cant tell when theyre done until the actual breakout.
since BP has made the louisianna purchase a profitable one for the U.S. i think we should as a country consider it sold and do some creative accounting..see how simple that is…
bought for $26.00 in beads and sold for around 40 billion…
all in favor say ” i “
That was Manhattan bot for $24 in beads.
i stand corrected…then lets sell manhattan before the oil gets there..
all in favor say “i”
Louisiana Purchase was 3 cents an acre, I think… still a pretty good deal, and it was more than Louisiana.
______
i think you meant manhattan was $0.03 an acre.
Nope….
The American representatives were prepared to pay up to $10 million for New Orleans and its environs, but were dumbfounded when the vastly larger territory was offered for $15 million. Jefferson had authorized Livingston only to purchase New Orleans. However, Livingston was certain that the U.S. would accept such a large offer.[10]
The Americans thought that Napoleon might withdraw the offer at any time, preventing the United States from acquiring New Orleans. So they agreed on April 30, 1803. The treaty was signed on May 2. On July 14, 1803, the treaty reached Washington. The Louisiana Territory was vast, stretching from the Gulf of Mexico in the south to Rupert’s Land in the north, and from the Mississippi River in the east to the Rocky Mountains in the west. Acquiring the territory would double the size of the United States at a cost of less than 3 cents per acre.
Whatta bah-gain!
________
Very gloomy on both the post and the comments. It sounds like a bear slam dunk but it’s going to be far harder for the bears to make money this time around. I encourage everyone to check out Scott’s post.
It’s better to avoid this game completely than try to play it
Besides, it’s sunny outside…
Yes more SPENDING! Let’s SPEND SPEND SPEND money that we don’t have and then we can just print it and everything will be OK. It is called the Magical Money tree otherwise known as a “free lunch”… Forget about the fact that our currency would become worthless, it is all justified to keep the Wall St. spculative bubble mania blowing up to infinity and beyond.
No QE = banks fail = derivatives blow up = insolvent financial system = immediately assploded currency.
QE = system propped up = currency rides on debt/gdp ratio vs. other fucked countries = stretching out the problem = chance in hell of not totally getting fistfucked.
So easy even a caveman can get it
You cannot stop spending without going thru the windshield.
I am all for protracting the issue, in order to avoid a depression. The problem with you tea baggers: you want a depression and u want it now.
Do you really think you can stop spending without causing grave financial distress?
Yes, there does need to be much spending stimulus but it has to be targeted to private industry (something Obama will not do).
The problem is our leaders have used the stimulus to help fund union pension shortfalls, and to create and save government jobs. Since the fiscal stimulus of Feb. 09 2.6 million private jobs were lost and 720,000 government jobs created.
Government produces nothing, it only takes.
Some money obviously found it’s way into the stock market thanks to cheap rates and Tarp.
My solution (short of World War III which by the way saved FDR’s depression) would be real simple.
Capital gains rate to 0 for 18 months and accelerated depreciation.
Factories would boom and there would be so much buying and selling that the economy would be on fire..
I’d also cut both sides of the payroll tax to zero for 18 months. If they did this in 2008, we might not be this deep in. The deficit is the deficit. Tax cuts are the most efficient to pump. Remove the punchbowl after the party is going.
How far Obama commie have you gone, Fly?
You’re employing the commie parties’ favourite homosexual reference to put down the people that have called you for your mistake?
Bad form, to say the least.
_____
commie…
homosexual…
geees.. this sounds like 1933 all over again … or 1954.
is this tomorrow?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Is_this_tomorrow.jpg
Dipshit — “teabagger” is a homosexual reference.
Get hip, it ain’t 1954.
Unfortch.
________
Here we go again with school ground name calling JK style.
Anyway… Tea bagging ain’t just for gays you know. Same thing goes for sodomy. If you guys take it the wrong way… You know… Not there’s anything wrong with that.
So you wanna prop up the zombies and keep the incompetants in power so that our children face 10-20 years of stagnation rather than just rip the fucking band-aid off quickly and let the losers go belly up so that we can start fresh with a stable foundation and not be stuck in a quagmire for decades to come???
No way to avoid it… pay me now or pay me Japanese style… over 30 years.
_______
Dude, you just said it. They WANT a depression. Literally. They think it is our just desserts and will cure our cultural ills. I know several who have admitted this openly.
I mean, maybe they are right. I dunno. But let’s call it as it is. They WANT a depression, it’s not that they think austerity will lead to economic salvation.
some want more than that , some want anarchy , some want end of days…be carefull what you wish for
It’s called the business cycle, too bad so many Keyenesian Kool-Aid drinkers have bought into the seductive notion that you can repeal the downward part of the business cycle by just using the Magical Money Tree. Repeat after me “there is no such thing a a free lunch”… The longer we postpone the inevitable the worse it is going to be. You can;t have Capitalism where nobody is allowed to fail or lose money. If we insist on pursuing that retarded strategy then we will just wind up with a worthless currency ala. Zimbabwe. It’s really just that simple. Either you let the losers fail or you prop them up perpetually with never ending bailouts and stimulus and in doing so destroy the currency. Period.
I vividly remember the tea party leaders (santelli, beck) calling for a dollar collapse during this winter. Then they called for a bond collapse a few months later. They were 100% wrong on both calls. But, no one has called them on it.
If the tea party types take power, they will jack up interest rates. That will absolutely crash the market
Do these guys ever admit to making a bad trade? Or is it not in their contract with “goldline” ?
They will crash the market? Are you smoking dope? The market has already crashed due to the same policies that the Fed and Congress are employing right now.
Do you expect a different result in continuing?
Jeezus, we need economic literacy in this country almost more than we need fucking oxygen.
_________
90% of the people don’t think for themselves and just parrot what they hear on the nightly news. For the last 18 months the have been brainwashed by Obama, Bernanke, Geithner and the rest that their fiscal largesse “saved us”.
Nevermind that the economy sucks for Main St. and only Wall Street speculators reaped the benefit of the bailouts and boondogle stimuli. The liars just tell us that it would have been so much worse if not for their actions and the beauty of such lies is that they are impossible to disprove so the sheep just lap it up like it was the gospel.
I won Mofos! We are spent for the short term. Will start positioning more on the long side starting tomorrow.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/06/29/divergences-continued/
No. I want all current political leaders in the galleys, both parties
I concur with this…
also, people are idiots.
That sums up most of my worldview.
Why would you want Barney Frank in your boat’s kitchen?
Does he make a stunning souflee or something?
________
funny.
The Fly is getting all torch and pitchfork on us. I thought he was smarter than that.
FTK
8,000,000 shares can now be sold: http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=7017721
Fly, are you still holding this?
When i die i will go into a pineapple coffin, that’s it
I wonder where steve is today, journey will never be the same again. Neither will ourcountry. Moving back in time 30 years to days best forgotten. We learn a lesson electing a moron like obama president. Its a mistake short lived, until next election cycle. And that goes for all moronic incombents who try to bury our country, you will follow the moron from office.
are the markets open on friday ?? monday??
Open FRI, closed on MON
thx
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3Dw-i7ylV0&feature=player_embedded#at=1482
Rand
It has nothing to do with obama. Dont believe the two party lie.
Yeah, funny how almost everyone thinks one party is God on a stick and the other one is Evil Incarnate. Only half the people disagree with the other half about which party is which. It would be hilarious if it weren’t almost everybody around us thinking this all day long every day.
Treu that. Very Very few are serving in the house or senate because of a desire to serve their country. For most it is nothing more than self advancement, lifelong perks, madness for what is perceived as power and control and cushy jobs on corporate boards or lobbying firms when they leave office. May they all self immolate.
It might take a while for government to realize that they can not stop spending now. They will realize it. Because lots of Tea Partiers and other voters want government to stop spending– until you ask them “And what do you want us to cut? Social Security? Medicare? The military?”
And to almost every single possible budget cut they say “No No No No No.”
Because democracy sucks.
“It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”
Winston Churchill
Voters too often vote for liars, who tell us “Sure, I can fix things so that you can have your cake and eat it too. No problemo.”
We can stop spending now by choice or we can wait for the market force us to stop later ala. Greece…
Government spending sucessfully got us out of the first Great Depression. And it will get us out of this one too, once the government wakes up and realizes that. Lots of spending isn’t good to do 24/7. But Fly is right that it does need to be done when you’re in a Depression. And since it’s been proven to work, you’re fucktarded if you don’t do it until the economy gets going on its own.
Keep drinking that Obamanomics Kool-Aid. Yeah I agree that governments will never truly adopt austerity it’s all lip service. You will get your massive deficit spending but when all is said and done you will wish you hadn’t. When the dollar in your pocket is worth 2 cents you will be crying the blues then wishing the policy makers had chosen the path of fiscal prudence and sound money instead of the Keynesian fairy tale of the magical free money tree.
Government Spending got us out of the Great Depression.
With no irony I say this — you are too stupid to post here.
__________
OK, self-proclaimed genius. Then what do YOU think got us out of the Great Depression, if not government spending on war?
War period. How about losing a few tens of millions of mouths to feed around the world. WWII was undertaken because FDR knew they could never spend enough money without a supposedly good reason. History will repeat at some point and in some fashion. There are many new ways to manufacture an emergency situation these days.
” losing mouth to feed ”
You actually think that created wealth?
Total War of the 2 WW type creates wealth only to the creditors. Even the winners lose.
You talk that way because continental USA was essentially spare
In both wars.
Rock and roll
Fly,
While I think it’s BS that governments have all of a sudden found religion and are looking to cut spending, aren’t we at an impasse in terms of the marginal returns from taking on more debt?
Precisely.
Each new dollar of debt is producing less and less economic growth and soon will produce zero growth and maybe even negative growth.
The myth of the free lunch is about to be debunked. The jig is up and either we take our medicine by choice or the market will force it down our throats like Greece.
@ helicopter ben rules!, You seem to be the only person on here aware of AUSTRIAN economics – just wanted to say it was refreshing to hear your logical posts, but depressing so few even understood them (including the fly).
What nerve!
______
Did anyone else pre order an iPhone 4? If so, are they also shipping by FedEx? Mine is.
Here’s an idea… If FedEx got an exclusive deal to deliver Apple products… Their revs should have increased significantly with 1.7 million deliveries that they didnt know would have been that good at last guidance.
Its a thought, got sometime till earnings
They are coming from Shenzen China
Fly, does all this deflation talk mean you are still going to buy that new house?
Jake
I was calling them tea baggers before the teevee started annoying you with the phrase. For the record, the tea party people can go fuck themselves on the platter of ignorance they serve up daily.
Would that we were all so “ignorant,” Anderson Cooper.
The Federalist Papers is a quick read, I assure you.
___________
I’d like to think that with every new downturn, debtor iBC commentators, or those who borrow and plagiarize others’ idiotic ideas, get flushed down the deflationary vortex.
Of course govt spending got us out of depression. I don’t think jake was talking to you.
Please, I beg you, read history.
The government “spent” for 16 years before we got out of the Depression. If you really think that’s a solution, I’d at least implore you to search for a more efficient one.
What got us out was the lack of competition and our “sole supplier” status thanks to Dresden, et al.
_________
Me thinks WWII saved us from going into the government spending toilet and ended the great depression. Since then our government has embraced the EASY part of the Keynesian model while ignoring the importance of not having a huge fucking trade deficit. That shit won’t work forever if the money is consistently flowing one way.
We should teach kids Chinese as a first language. With any hope, one day we’ll be the country exporting Nike shoes and stupid fucking plastic toys for McChinese happy meals. Until then its all down hill. Wheeeeeee!
Truthfully, unemployment was in the mid teens even up until 1943 when most of the able bodied young men were in the freaking army or navy.
Sound familiar to you?
___________
…when Rosie the Riveter even had a job. I think we’re repeating history.
Fly, your picture on this post makes me wonder about the future… Something tells me you read the last chapter of the deflationary vortex handbook.
Those poor bastards didn’t even have a gargoyle statue in the back of their wagon!
Thomas
That model is fucking retarded , as is helicopter ben.
What part of “there is no remedy” dont you idiots get?
There is only medicine now or later.
The remedy to every problem is just borrow money you don’t have and when you run out print more. It is so simple and easy and there are no negative consequences. Nobody ever has to fail ever again even when they are incompetent. And if you make bad bets you never have to lose because you can just get a big bailout from the money tree. Wow! We have discovered economic Nirvana. Why can’t these stupid policy makers figure this out it is so simple. Borrow, Spend, Print, Repeat = Permanent Prosperity.
gentlemen and the rest…if the central banks start rebuying gold right now wouldnt that add money to the economy???
remember they sold their gold to raise money …now buying it to spend money…thats how it works…
For what reason would they rebuy gold? All they would do is drive the price higher in dollar terms.
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Goverment giving banks money is bad allocation of spending, goverments spending on infrastructer and tax breaks would be good spending to aid the economy.
USA is not like Greece in any way at all, completly different montery system, cannot compare.
Goverment should keep spending but aim the spending at main street.
Yes let’s drop Helicopter money down onto the city streets of Main St. USA… What a great idea! Because of course everyone loves free money. Who wouldn’t love free money. What a novel concept. And this sugar daddy government can just keep handing out money awesome!
But who is this government and where is all this money going to come from??? Oh wait it’s our tax dollars… Hmmm, so the government is going to take from all of us and then give it back to certain special interests and public employees. Sounds like just robbing Peter to pay Paul. How exactly does that make us more prosperous as a nation???… Oh wait a minute I guess we could always just borrow from foreigners to spend. And no problem then as we can live it up and stick our kids with the tax bill. Cool!… Or maybe we can just print it all up like monopoly money right? I mean that won’t cause our currency to lose purchasing power or anything like that.
Oh why over think it, I just want my stocks to go up fuck the next generation let them deal with it!
My new friend. We are few here, Ben.
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Come on …. that was you, admit it.
No really… not kidding no idea who he is. I always thought he was being ironic. Now I find he was serious all along and am gratified.
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This is it guys…I am all in short and hanging on for what will be a ferocious ride to Dow hell
Can someone point to me where the Deflation is in the US?
Real estate? It’s been going up, ever so slightly, but it has gone up. Goods and services? CPI is running at around zero, which is hardly inflation. Corporate profits are at record levels with the margins running at close to 40%.
Sorry folks but I’m not seeing it.
i dont see it either ..today i made it a point to look for tractor trailers while i was driving ..and they are on the road ..lots of them…and frankly i dont beleave 99.9 % of this nonsense…looks to me like business is booming..no inflation or deflation
You trust the numbers coming out? Really?
oops should read:
….hardly deflation….
Do I trust the numbers? Yea somewhat. look, I’m not getting into a conspiracy theory debate with you as it’s totally pointless.
I’m not into conspiracy theories. I just take the numbers and their sources with a grain of salt – especially when things are as blatantly fucked up as they are now.
For example, you say real estate is going up, yet I saw some numbers that showed US home sales were down over 30% in May – who knows what the exact state of the market is at this time aside from shitty.
Point being there are lots of special interests that use the media and economic reports to spin certain tales and none of the little guys like you and I know what is really going on until it’s already over and done with.
Well you’re right, home sales did go down 30% (is that figure right by the way or are they bullshtting?). That was on the back of some really hefty sales numbers supported by the government credit. It’s not shocking we had a move back.
Case Shiller reported prices were up 3.8% on 20 US cities last quarter.
Frankly I don’t see why both stats need to cancel each other out.
I’m not saying that they should cancel each other out; after all, we have to have something to form views and opinions with. I’m just stating that there is so much data being pushed on investors and the general public in the guise of fact that it’s rather pointless to try and predict what is going on day to day or week to week because we’re bombarded by too much info – much of which is highly suspect at best.
As far as the 30% being bullshit, who knows. What I do know is that I travel around the country on a regular basis and I am still seeing far more For Sale signs than ones reading Sold.
Well that’s ALWAYS going to be true, for what it’s worth.
Not like people keep “sold” signs out for months in ANY kind of market, right?
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Deflation boogeyman is what the Wall St. speculators conjure up when they want to bitch and whine about their stocks going down and thus pressure the Fed into another round of currency destruction.
Commercial credit is up
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR?cid=101
WTF have you never posted on my blog?
I used to think you were making fun of me.
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Not seeing it at the market …. a jug of ice cream is smaller for the same price and now my sports snack (Cheetos) has been downsized to a smaller package again for the same price … what’s this, the new deflation?
Inflation is especially hard to hide the closer you get to agricultural commodities.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMkXA6kqNsw
I don’t think that the economy will start running again period. No matter how many times Ben flies the helicopter. The reason is this. Talking with many people every day in my line of work I hear a constant undertow of thought from John Q Public that he is just sick of it. They are sick of having to buy buy buy to have the latest and greatest gizmo from Apple or the fancy house or the new car along with the 56″ flat screen etc etc etc. I hear from many that they have decided these things do not enrich their lives and the are going to say screw it to the consumer mentality. It’s not the economy or government that will reset, it’s the attitude of the guy on the street. He’s tired of the treadmill, realizes his life is lower quality because of the pursuit of things that supposedly bring a higher quality and he’s just not going to do it anymore. No amount of stimulus is going to erase that line of thought until a generation has passed.
This line of thinking is not 100% pervasive but it is becoming much more prevalent and once it reaches critical mass, things will reset even if they start printing $100,000 bills again.
yes heaterman;
The US savings rate is gone up form around -4% to around 5.5% and is forecast to go to 6.5ish%.
And yet asshats stood up all night and curled around the block in order to buy the latest Apple iPhone bullshit device.
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As I said, not all have reached that conclusion yet. When it does all go in the crapper those are the types that jump off buildings. We had some of those last time too.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37994720/
J
If you recall, you missed the early signs of 2008 too.
Yea I did, that’s true and i don’t doubt I can be wrong again.
I’m just not seeing it Fly.
I hear a constant undertow of thought that John Q Public is just sick of it. They are sick of having to buy buy buy to have the latest and greatest gizmo or the fancy house or the new car along with the 56? flat screen etc etc etc. I hear from many that they have decided these things do not enrich their lives and the are going to say screw it to the consumer mentality. It’s not the economy or government that will reset, it’s the attitude of the guy on the street. He’s tired of the treadmill, realizes his life is lower quality because of the pursuit of things that supposedly bring a higher quality and he’s just not going to do it anymore.
Holy shit! There are people out there that “get” what is actually taking place. Heaterman- keep your mind open for you are one of the few. When most of these fuckers finally figure out that dollar$ won’t mean shit, it’s too late!
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/06/29/austerity-vs-stimulus-the-new-ideological-divide/
Greenspan versus Krugman. What a joke.
The great thing about history
Jake is everyone has a different version. It is funny to hear so many versions that are the absolute truth.
What are you talking about “absolute truth?” What are you some kind of historical relativist? Do you have a post-modern view that there is no truth?
The facts are pretty well documented. The economy was pretty much in the shitter wholsale from early 1930 to about 1944. The government largely changed the structure of our society in the interum in trying to alleviate the problem via top down central planning, a la the Soviet Union (who were lying about their results and not reporting their famine deaths).
Please, I’m all ears for your version of how the government saved us from the Depression.
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Oh, i am also looking forward to your inflation thesis to finally carry some water.
Have you checked the price of gold recently?
Howabout gasoline?
Cheerios?
Computers? Oh yeah, computers have remained relatively stable.
Congrats.
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Gold has nothing to do with inflation. Go look at steel.
Oh, i also recommend reading some
Amity shales for another version of your truth.
Please tell me you are kidding. I loved “The Forgotten Man.”
She would agree with my version, fwiw.
If you think she’d say “FDR saved us” like every innumerate liberal with a statist bone to pick has been for 70 years, you are cracked.
And gold is money. It is the best inflation indicator standing. About 1000x better than the CPI.
(it’s “Shlaes”)
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I know you wouldovw her revisionist version of the truth, which
Is why i mentioned it. I hope you acknowledge her opinion to be exactly that and not fact. Although
I think fdr threw a lot of good money after bad. There is no denying expansion of govt saved lives back then.
Gold is being used as a derisk trade, zero to do with inflation.
Imo: credit expansion or contraction is the best leading indicator of what is
Coming.
So, for the last ten years… even through the 2003-2007 cyclical bull (within this secular bear) …. gold, marching all the way, was being used as ” a derisk trade?”
Do I have you right?
Credit expansion only occurs one way when the system is seized up… clackity clack.
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Btw: u r a marxist
You seem to be confusing me w. the dude you voted for, unfortch.
Can’t say you were not amply warned.
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Fly, read history, it’s all out there, and it’s not going away any time soon. The gov’t choked off the chance of natural economic recovery, they did not save anyone — only prolonged misery.
Read about the “Depression of 1920” and how the gov’t dealt with THAT one. The fact that you’ve probably never heard about it should give you the hint that it wasn’t dealt with using the statist tools of Roosy the Rivetless.
As for Shlaes, you should read the book… here’s a piece that might interest you… Brooklyn, Represent!
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I fucking read the book and i find your recommendations to “go read history” a bit insulting, smug and fucktarded.
Believe it or not, they have books in brooklyn and in between petting monkeys at the zoo, i read a few.
Okay, give me a counter… but please, written recently.
Don’t bother with the John Kenneth Galbraith Master of the Universe Top Down Mad Men Don Draper Industrial Planning Fifties bullshit, that’s all.
Because that’s the “Change” we’re dealing w. right now. The same incompetance that’s being visited on the country by a bunch of arrogant asshats that think they can decide the cast of the economy using the few variables alloted to them was visited upon this country circa 1929-1945.
Only a step down in rigid regulation and a surge in global demand (thanks to our trashing the rest of the world’s capacity) finally got us back on the path to economic growth.
And STILL we had another recession relatively soon in the late 40’s, because of the chains that had been laid on the economy that had NOT been lifted.
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You boys really should heed your mothers warnings of long ago and get to bed on time. Please take care of yourselves a little better, I enjoy the banter here and would hate to lose either of you because you have worn down……………..For Land sakes…………talking about this junk at 2AM…………….
We are co-insomniacs. I tend to catch up on the weekend.
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@ Jakegint, I read your posts, nice to see you’re an anti-statist! I’ll have to start following your blog. Regarding your gold play… do you follow M2 and M3? If so, all asset prices are likely to go down in the near term, even gold.
What do you think of the theory that the government is cutting M2 and causing deflation to “scare” big money into long term treasuries, so when they do crank up inflation the big money is already locked in? is the government that smart?