iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,449 Blog Posts

Still Heavily Hedged

Don’t misconstrue my hurried exit out of ERY. I do not like to hold 3x ETF’s for a long period of time, due to decay. Seeing the market rally, while ERY was up, prompted me to quickly exit. However, I still remain steadfast with my VXX position, now more than 21% of assets.

I bought GWW based upon a new accuracy tool in The PPT. It’s not available for public use yet, as it is still in BETA. However, I can tell you now, without equivocation, it is mathematical harmony at its finest. It takes the Godly, and often referred to, OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT indicators and tests the readings for accuracy. In other words, I am able to search our data base of 4,400 stocks+, plus ETF’s, for the most accurate OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT readings, using space alien magician coding, all provided by the good folks over at CAPSLOCK aka “Jeremy.”

Let me give an example:

No. Ticker Hybrid Oversold Technical Oversold Hybrid OS 3 Day – Avg Return Hybrid OS 3 Day – % Times Up Hybrid OS 3 Day – # Signals Hybrid OS 5 Day – Avg Return Hybrid OS 5 Day – % Times Up Hybrid OS 5 Day – # Signals Tech OS 3 Day – Avg Return Tech OS 3 Day – % Times Up Tech OS 3 Day – # Signals Tech OS 5 Day – Avg Return Tech OS 5 Day – % Times Up Tech OS 5 Day – # Signals Price
1 HRS Yes No 1.82 100.00 2.00 3.35 100.00 2.00 44.85
2 NFG Yes No 1.29 66.67 3.00 4.93 100.00 3.00 47.57
3 GWW Yes No 3.07 100.00 3.00 5.34 100.00 3.00 104.11
4 UN Yes No -0.68 33.33 3.00 3.90 100.00 1.00 28.26
5 EMR Yes No 0.43 50.00 2.00 3.20 100.00 2.00 44.85
6 SLT Yes No -0.11 50.00 4.00 1.89 75.00 4.00 14.62
7 DHR Yes No 0.80 33.33 3.00 1.90 66.67 3.00 39.11
8 ACH Yes No 1.13 66.67 6.00 1.28 66.67 6.00 0.73 100.00 1.00 4.44 100.00 1.00 20.13
9 SQM Yes No -1.21 0.00 3.00 0.59 66.67 3.00 33.78
10 DAC Yes No -3.39 0.00 2.00 -0.14 50.00 2.00 3.82
11 X Yes No -1.82 33.33 6.00 -0.51 50.00 6.00 42.19
12 BHI Yes No -1.58 40.00 5.00 -1.77 50.00 4.00 42.21
13 PCP Yes No -2.49 50.00 6.00 -0.59 50.00 6.00 108.33
14 QLGC Yes No -1.92 50.00 6.00 -0.58 50.00 6.00 17.71
15 SORL Yes No -1.81 50.00 2.00 0.49 50.00 2.00 -7.00 0.00 2.00 -2.89 0.00 2.00 9.05
16 PTNR Yes No 0.80 62.50 8.00 0.02 37.50 8.00 16.42
17 WLT Yes No -2.34 25.00 8.00 -1.53 37.50 8.00

In summary, I am still waiting for a pullback and have a plethora of names on my “to-buy-list,” when the time is right. However, with regards to 3x ETF’s, do not hold them, as if they were ordinary short sales. They are far more sinister and more conducive to chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, than a portfolio filled with a fuckload of  toxic CDO’s, literally.

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39 comments

  1. jg

    fig

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  2. xxxHuggieBearxxx
    xxxHuggieBearxxx

    As far as i can tell, it’s sammich eatin’ time. This market is quite undecided and certainly not in a position to act with conviction.

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  3. TA

    This summer market is a waste of time, do yourself a favor and take it off

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  4. The Fly

    Starting a New England vacation on 7/4.

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    • xxxHuggieBearxxx
      xxxHuggieBearxxx

      I will be doing the same with New England’s decrepit cousin, the Poconos.

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    • lindsay

      a real break maybe? one of the team blog for you..or a couple of them?

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      • The Fly

        NO, never again. Every time I leave blogging for a week traffic plummets. I will be trading + blogging while on vacation, much to the chagrin of Mrs. Fly.

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        • MarshalN

          Go to Maine, less people, more lobsters. I hope you’re flying a private jet and not driving like the masses.

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          • Jakegint

            Marty’s Vineyard or Nantucket?

            Don’t tell me you are heading to the Kennedy compound for some R&R….

            _____

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          • The_Real_Hmmm

            That reminds me, my parents would take us to Nantucket/MV when I was young and my brother and I would love to go to the flag store there where my parents would get us a small desk flag of our choosing. People must have thought we were psychopaths running around waving the “flag with the sword” and the “bird flag.” Of course we were zealots of Saudi Arabia and Albania.

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          • Jakegint

            That’s a great story.

            Nantucket is nice in the summer.

            ______

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          • Po Pimp

            Awesome.

            Unfortunately today, you would be on the first flight to GITMO after pulling that stunt.

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        • Teahouse On The Tracks
          Teahouse On The Tracks

          Let me recommend this:

          http://www.wequassett.com/

          The nearby town of Orleans is wifi’d … you can blog while drinking a Corona on the beach! And the Land Ho there is a great casual Irish Pub … you won’t find Jake there however as it was Tip O’Neil’s favorite hangout.

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          • Mr. Limm

            Tip O’Neill was a king compared to the worms in the Democrat Socialist party today.

            Guy was friends w. Reagan! Can you imagine Chuck and Nancy being friendly w. Ronnie?

            ______

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    • Bullish

      New England?
      Support the Gulf States… I hear Key West is nice this time of year. No oil to be found as of today.

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      • The Fly

        Right. And if there is, I can always go 2-3 miles down the beach for better water. Perfect vacation idea.

        Fuck that. I’ll stick to my lobsters.

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        • Bullish

          The oil is 400 miles away and not currently heading to the Keys.

          In 2 1/2 weeks I will be snorkeling in those waters, so there better not be any oil.

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        • Purdy

          Used to be the law in these parts that you couldn’t feed those then-plentiful bottom feeders to your indentured servants more than three times a week.

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    • Teahouse On The Tracks
      Teahouse On The Tracks

      If you come to The Cape be sure to make reservations for The Chart Room in Cataumet … and order a Mudslide

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      • Teahouse On The Tracks
        Teahouse On The Tracks

        The Ocean House in Harwich for beachfront dinner … or The Red Pheasant Inn for a classic old inn dining experience.

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  5. panamaorange

    Getting some DBA long here at 24.08. “Chocolate Rain” via oil evaporation, will not make for cheaper grain prices.

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  6. Jason

    Gotta get a lobster roll in Plymouth, MA! Amazing.

    Please tell me mrs. Fly isnt gonna drag you antiquing

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    • Teahouse On The Tracks
      Teahouse On The Tracks

      Biggest & best lobster roll on the cape and maybe all of New England in Mashpee in the Pomponesett area (another nice setting with cottages and great place if your taking kids) at Bob’s aka The Raw Bar …. 1 lb of pure lobster meat $25/roll … it’s a monster and can’t be beat.

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  7. j

    Fly

    can you please explain each line across? What do the numerical values mean on each line. thanks

    What I mean is why are those lines more informative than the regular Hybrid we can pick up off the PPT?

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    • Dr Fly

      J

      It’s pretty self explanatory. That’s like asking me to explain each letter of the alphabet.

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      • tm

        Can you please explain “J” to me?

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      • j

        Oh come on

        Take the first stock

        1.82 100.00 2.00 3.35 100.00 2.00

        So am I right in saying when it reached 1.82 it went up 100% of the time. There were two signals.

        in the 5 day period (3.35) also 100% of the time there were 2 signals.

        that right?

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        • sg

          what is there to not understand? you got two types of oversold signals – 3 day and 5 day. Both were 100% accurate. Avg return is approx 3% and 5% respectively.

          I want to know the timeframe for the return though

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          • Dr Fly

            That is the time frame.

            We monitor 1,3,5,7,10 days after the signal.

            So, in this case, I am highlighting what the stock did 3 and 5 days after an OVERSOLD signal was triggered, historically.

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          • j

            SG

            where does the 3 and 5% return show up?

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  8. Rand

    Hill country in texas at new braunfels on the river intertubing! Drinkin and havin fun.

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  9. omen

    Ok, misunderstood the move and jumped the gun… Should have more patience…

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