Don’t misconstrue my hurried exit out of ERY. I do not like to hold 3x ETF’s for a long period of time, due to decay. Seeing the market rally, while ERY was up, prompted me to quickly exit. However, I still remain steadfast with my VXX position, now more than 21% of assets.
I bought GWW based upon a new accuracy tool in The PPT. It’s not available for public use yet, as it is still in BETA. However, I can tell you now, without equivocation, it is mathematical harmony at its finest. It takes the Godly, and often referred to, OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT indicators and tests the readings for accuracy. In other words, I am able to search our data base of 4,400 stocks+, plus ETF’s, for the most accurate OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT readings, using space alien magician coding, all provided by the good folks over at CAPSLOCK aka “Jeremy.”
Let me give an example:
No. | Ticker | Hybrid Oversold | Technical Oversold | Hybrid OS 3 Day – Avg Return | Hybrid OS 3 Day – % Times Up | Hybrid OS 3 Day – # Signals | Hybrid OS 5 Day – Avg Return | Hybrid OS 5 Day – % Times Up | Hybrid OS 5 Day – # Signals | Tech OS 3 Day – Avg Return | Tech OS 3 Day – % Times Up | Tech OS 3 Day – # Signals | Tech OS 5 Day – Avg Return | Tech OS 5 Day – % Times Up | Tech OS 5 Day – # Signals | Price |
1 | HRS | Yes | No | 1.82 | 100.00 | 2.00 | 3.35 | 100.00 | 2.00 | 44.85 | ||||||
2 | NFG | Yes | No | 1.29 | 66.67 | 3.00 | 4.93 | 100.00 | 3.00 | 47.57 | ||||||
3 | GWW | Yes | No | 3.07 | 100.00 | 3.00 | 5.34 | 100.00 | 3.00 | 104.11 | ||||||
4 | UN | Yes | No | -0.68 | 33.33 | 3.00 | 3.90 | 100.00 | 1.00 | 28.26 | ||||||
5 | EMR | Yes | No | 0.43 | 50.00 | 2.00 | 3.20 | 100.00 | 2.00 | 44.85 | ||||||
6 | SLT | Yes | No | -0.11 | 50.00 | 4.00 | 1.89 | 75.00 | 4.00 | 14.62 | ||||||
7 | DHR | Yes | No | 0.80 | 33.33 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 66.67 | 3.00 | 39.11 | ||||||
8 | ACH | Yes | No | 1.13 | 66.67 | 6.00 | 1.28 | 66.67 | 6.00 | 0.73 | 100.00 | 1.00 | 4.44 | 100.00 | 1.00 | 20.13 |
9 | SQM | Yes | No | -1.21 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.59 | 66.67 | 3.00 | 33.78 | ||||||
10 | DAC | Yes | No | -3.39 | 0.00 | 2.00 | -0.14 | 50.00 | 2.00 | 3.82 | ||||||
11 | X | Yes | No | -1.82 | 33.33 | 6.00 | -0.51 | 50.00 | 6.00 | 42.19 | ||||||
12 | BHI | Yes | No | -1.58 | 40.00 | 5.00 | -1.77 | 50.00 | 4.00 | 42.21 | ||||||
13 | PCP | Yes | No | -2.49 | 50.00 | 6.00 | -0.59 | 50.00 | 6.00 | 108.33 | ||||||
14 | QLGC | Yes | No | -1.92 | 50.00 | 6.00 | -0.58 | 50.00 | 6.00 | 17.71 | ||||||
15 | SORL | Yes | No | -1.81 | 50.00 | 2.00 | 0.49 | 50.00 | 2.00 | -7.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | -2.89 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 9.05 |
16 | PTNR | Yes | No | 0.80 | 62.50 | 8.00 | 0.02 | 37.50 | 8.00 | 16.42 | ||||||
17 | WLT | Yes | No | -2.34 | 25.00 | 8.00 | -1.53 | 37.50 | 8.00 |
In summary, I am still waiting for a pullback and have a plethora of names on my “to-buy-list,” when the time is right. However, with regards to 3x ETF’s, do not hold them, as if they were ordinary short sales. They are far more sinister and more conducive to chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, than a portfolio filled with a fuckload of toxic CDO’s, literally.
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fig
As far as i can tell, it’s sammich eatin’ time. This market is quite undecided and certainly not in a position to act with conviction.
Even my GLD has turned on me.
More like JPM did that.
Your GLD will be back.
___
This summer market is a waste of time, do yourself a favor and take it off
Starting a New England vacation on 7/4.
I will be doing the same with New England’s decrepit cousin, the Poconos.
LOFL @ decrepit cousin….
What is their incontinent senile uncle…. The Catskills?
_______
Retarded Nephew = The Smokies
Surf-ski tow-headed son-in-law, heavily baked — The Sierras.
____
I’m concerned however with New England’s fatass overweight sister — Clam Chowder.
a real break maybe? one of the team blog for you..or a couple of them?
NO, never again. Every time I leave blogging for a week traffic plummets. I will be trading + blogging while on vacation, much to the chagrin of Mrs. Fly.
Go to Maine, less people, more lobsters. I hope you’re flying a private jet and not driving like the masses.
Marty’s Vineyard or Nantucket?
Don’t tell me you are heading to the Kennedy compound for some R&R….
_____
That reminds me, my parents would take us to Nantucket/MV when I was young and my brother and I would love to go to the flag store there where my parents would get us a small desk flag of our choosing. People must have thought we were psychopaths running around waving the “flag with the sword” and the “bird flag.” Of course we were zealots of Saudi Arabia and Albania.
That’s a great story.
Nantucket is nice in the summer.
______
Awesome.
Unfortunately today, you would be on the first flight to GITMO after pulling that stunt.
Let me recommend this:
http://www.wequassett.com/
The nearby town of Orleans is wifi’d … you can blog while drinking a Corona on the beach! And the Land Ho there is a great casual Irish Pub … you won’t find Jake there however as it was Tip O’Neil’s favorite hangout.
Tip O’Neill was a king compared to the worms in the Democrat Socialist party today.
Guy was friends w. Reagan! Can you imagine Chuck and Nancy being friendly w. Ronnie?
______
New England?
Support the Gulf States… I hear Key West is nice this time of year. No oil to be found as of today.
Right. And if there is, I can always go 2-3 miles down the beach for better water. Perfect vacation idea.
Fuck that. I’ll stick to my lobsters.
The oil is 400 miles away and not currently heading to the Keys.
In 2 1/2 weeks I will be snorkeling in those waters, so there better not be any oil.
the surface oil is 400 miles away.
However–the benzene, corexit, and methane could go anywhere.
Used to be the law in these parts that you couldn’t feed those then-plentiful bottom feeders to your indentured servants more than three times a week.
If you come to The Cape be sure to make reservations for The Chart Room in Cataumet … and order a Mudslide
The Ocean House in Harwich for beachfront dinner … or The Red Pheasant Inn for a classic old inn dining experience.
Getting some DBA long here at 24.08. “Chocolate Rain” via oil evaporation, will not make for cheaper grain prices.
Gotta get a lobster roll in Plymouth, MA! Amazing.
Please tell me mrs. Fly isnt gonna drag you antiquing
Biggest & best lobster roll on the cape and maybe all of New England in Mashpee in the Pomponesett area (another nice setting with cottages and great place if your taking kids) at Bob’s aka The Raw Bar …. 1 lb of pure lobster meat $25/roll … it’s a monster and can’t be beat.
Fly
can you please explain each line across? What do the numerical values mean on each line. thanks
What I mean is why are those lines more informative than the regular Hybrid we can pick up off the PPT?
J
It’s pretty self explanatory. That’s like asking me to explain each letter of the alphabet.
Can you please explain “J” to me?
Oh come on
Take the first stock
1.82 100.00 2.00 3.35 100.00 2.00
So am I right in saying when it reached 1.82 it went up 100% of the time. There were two signals.
in the 5 day period (3.35) also 100% of the time there were 2 signals.
that right?
what is there to not understand? you got two types of oversold signals – 3 day and 5 day. Both were 100% accurate. Avg return is approx 3% and 5% respectively.
I want to know the timeframe for the return though
That is the time frame.
We monitor 1,3,5,7,10 days after the signal.
So, in this case, I am highlighting what the stock did 3 and 5 days after an OVERSOLD signal was triggered, historically.
SG
where does the 3 and 5% return show up?
Hill country in texas at new braunfels on the river intertubing! Drinkin and havin fun.
Ok, misunderstood the move and jumped the gun… Should have more patience…