Just in case you weren’t paying attention, the dry bulk index has declined 21 days in a row.
Let’s keep in mind how stupid the bdi is when laughing at the decline. I understand the state of denial that many of you inflation wish casters are in, especially since, well, we’re not on the fucking gold standard anymore. But even the most ardent inflationist needs to acknowledge the vapor lock like deflationary vortex we are now entering.
Note: The bdi is down 40% in June. That’s right, June.
link is broken.
here’s a working one: http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
by the way. BDI declined twice in similar fashion in 2009, while markets kept rallying (I’m also in deflationists’ camp, but it’s fair to mention this to keep one’s bias on leash).
Do you think earnings are going to come in soft? I mean, shitstorm ahead or no, i assume if earnings come in strong again, we are going up. (obvs. not this week)
fly, given the latest noise around iran/isreal/us, does that affect your bp-based energy thesis wrt ery? in other words, how does the price of oil play into your energy strategy?
good question
Just my two cents (which I know aren’t worth squat):
If you think about BP’s elevator shaft-like fall, coupled with his deflationary vortex bias, the ERY play makes the most sense. But I think this becomes a more worthwhile play with a longer-term horizon. I think Fly’s a little ahead of his time with this thesis.
On Friday, we saw UCO up 7%. Going into the weekend, people were buying oil like it was 2008. The combination of heightening tensions between Iran/Israel, off-shore drilling moratoriums and the worst hurricane season on record make this a scary, scary time to be short oil. By December 2010, I reckon the deflationary vortex will begin to clamp down on oil’s massive rise. And then it’ll fall. Hard. Is there a VXX-like ETF for energy?
Do you think ships will, or are being used to clean up the oil spill. I picture a big vaccum sucking the crude up off the top of the water and storing it in the vessel storage tank area below.
whats happening with oats?
Canada can’t get their crop planted – too much rain and they produce ~15% of the world’s oat supply. Also having problems with their rapeseed and canola crops – which will affect the beanoil eventually.
The senate passed a bill that gives the meaningless office of president power to shut down the internets for 4 months, on a whim.
Who needs free speech, while terrorists lurk on the webs?
Did you see the bit on miranda rights changing?
We will all end up G20 protesters in the end.
lol. How could anyone protest giving up 100% of all their rights? You can trust people with absolute power, right?
President can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants anyway…W. already proved that (e.g. torture, widespread wiretapping, and other various things once considered illegal). Actually, maybe lincoln proved it, but W. proved you can do it pretty much whenever you want (not just when the country is torn in two).
Not sure why they bothered with a bill…
Give it a rest with the recycled Mother Jones, Huggie, you are out of your league. As you have already mentioned.
Ever heard of the Patriot Act? Passed OVERWHELMINGLY by Congress — there’s that nutty legislative body again.
Crazy, isn’t it? And passed with a hell of a lot more bipartisan support than the Obamacare bs.
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yeah but a lot of them would like to have their vote back …
That act was put together and packaged as PATRIOTIC (“you’re either with us or your with the enemy”) by the ADMINISTRATION. It was made too risky for the gnadless legislators to oppose the administration. That is executive power!
No one individual in this country has the power that a president has to sell shit to ignorant, scared, and paranoid Americans. In a democracy access to our brains and our emotions means everything. Shit, Bush probably had you wrapping your house in plastic and duct tape. I wouldn’t be surprised if you ended-up moving to some survivalist outpost like Kentucky.
I was already long here. And it was survivalist in a way. My wife wouldn’t have survived much longer in Manhattan.
Too many nasty dipshits like you.
And stop making excuses for your pussy Dem Congresscritters. Afraid of dumb old George? Lol.
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You sure do view the world through Bush-colored glasses, don’t you. Obama and the Dems are far from perfect. But every single sin you accuse them of was also committed by your beloved Bush, AND MORE.
Your ceaseless hypocrisy diminishes your credibility.
Give me a break about “and more, ” Cannoli. Obama promised “change” from Bush remember?
The only thing he changed were the number of zeroes on the back of the deficit.
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it didn’t actually come to vote in the senate yet… it only was approved in committee, next step it goes to the floor for a vote. point taken though!
Key word “Senate” as in the legislature.
The commie rats could’ve given the same authority to your mailman.
It just woudn’t have looked as good in People magazine next to the latest on the Twilight kids.
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All a scam.
Im gonna bank coin then start my own civilization on easter island. Who is with me?
Perfect weather: 64-82 all year round
I’m in if I can be Minister of Rock and Roll.
I’m in only if you supply the Koolaid
I’ll run the Starbucks….Blue Blazers required.
cant go tomorrow buy tuesday is fine…how that be
Easter Islands? Too many big freaky stone statues. God willing I’m heading to Costa Rica!
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?srch=1&storyid=281041
If Israel makes a move on Iran, were going into full blown staglflation overnight. We’ll actually see commodities trading at an inverse to stocks.
Just some friendly advice
You can Buy empty 5 gallon buckets at any hardware store.
you can fit 15 pounds of oatmeal, or 25 pounds of rice in each bucket. The lids have built in rubber seals.
It amazes me how many moron friends of mine have “emergency gold”, but no emergency food.
Where do they expect to SAFELY barter with their gold in an emergency? Have you ever seen the parking lot of the average flea market/swap meet? They look like sets from “The Road Warrior”. And this is BEFORE an apocalypse has started.
Im amazed the glenn beck crowd expects to safely barter with gold, without getting jacked on the walk home.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hFfR_Iv63Y
Most of that crowd is armed to the teeth since they are believers in the second amendment.
And what are they going to do in a real food crisis , with all their assault weapons? Ill tell you.
They’ll end up trading most of their guns for very small amounts of food.
They’ll be forced to trade them either with their neighbors, or with the government. Most of that crowd has no idea how to hunt, or clean, edible game. In many urban/suburban areas, the only huntable game is birds and squirrels. Much of the tea party crowd is armed with weapons that are too large caliber to hunt such animals.
“And what are they going to do in a real food crisis , with all their assault weapons?”
Kill, or coerce into turning over, any healthy looking males hiding oatmeal stashes.
LOL… “trading their guns.”
Seriously, Darwin at work.
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people with the guns get the food.
Eggsactly. What idiot would hold gold for an emergency without a set of emergency street cannon?
Panama must be a blue stater.
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Why store food when you can store lead and it last longer. Also, you don’t have to barter with lead and you can get all the food you want if you have a good supply of lead?
This is the correct answer. Call it modern alchemy. Turning lead into gold.
Yeah, amazing how that emergency gold is so much easier to carry and can be converted into “emergency food.” Hence the term “money.”
Do you really think we’re going to go full pre-historic, and gold will be useless? If we do, I will use my guns to feed my family.
Either way, your 25 pounds of wheat will do you jack sheeit.
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disregard comment
what the hell is going on in the world right now
Not much really. Just a multifront war and an attack on the dollar, air, food, and water. That’s what happens when the U.S. government gives up it’s sovereignty to international crime syndicates.
I sent jake a video of what they are doing down in cameron parish to the coastline at the gulf. The national guard has been called out, and they are preparing for the oil to come ashore, looks bad down there in louisiana.
Time for a ride in the time machine, Fly?
Everybody just calm down.
Relax. Close your eyes, and go to a happy place.
Good idea really, AD. Even when problems are tough, it takes a calm mind to solve them well. Calmer minds think more clearly.
This end of the world shit is over blown….. now I did get a weird super paranoid flash back in March 09 getting those end of the world feelings but all my friends were chugging beer and playing golf oblivious of the market but nothing much happened… OK so the US goes bankrupt.. fuck it, we should declare tomorrow, lets get the pain out of the way already. Half the states in the union are bankrupt for gods sake.
China is no longer going to support our debt…. so who is going to buy? The Fed ha ha… the American people are mostly broke too.
It a perfect storm mother fuckers no way out but the hard way….. but apocalypse please, your being overly dramatic. Yea we may have tent cites and long soup lines, but we will work our way out of it.
There is still a Rome if you look on the map.
The baby boomers, what a bunch of fuck ups……. they should all die broke for being so stupid.
Gonzo
I think we all misread markets or the mechanics of markets at times.
The Chinese don’t have to buy US debt. In fact the Chinese don’t have to really buy any dollars or dollar denominated assets from the US as the rest of the world invariably will otherwise the US current account deficit will simply close.
Singaporean banks seem to be offering a safe haven, fwiw.
That said, I may just invest in Korean kids with very strict parents.
Sublime.
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What Fly and all the other defationary doom-sayers are missing is that the Central Banks don’t have to stand for deflation any more.
Clack clack clack!
Ack Ack Ack!
Get ye some real specie, before ye be fleecie.
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Jake:
I really think that Ambrose piece in the UK telegraph is quite important particularly in terms of Fed thinking.
The San Fran Fed thinks real rates are -5% and the current level of QE brings is -2%. Bernanke thinks we need amount $2 trillion of QE to get the job done.
If this talk is happening at the Fed and the other major cbs deflation trades could be problematic longer term.
For those who think Israel is going to Iran very soon. I didn’t sense any confirmation of that from CIA Director Panetta this weekend when he stated that the US does not believe that Iran has decided whether or not to make nukes – – this contradicts the Israeli postion.
if they do (Israel) you will never know a word about it until it is over, and then in the news….that is when you will have the first clue, when it’s over…..don’t forget 1981.
exactly. All this telegraphing is for some other purpose – – to help negotiations or military action elsewhere.
It cracks me up, how many times “financial journalists” a.k.a. unemployed traders change their pre-market pieces. MSN: “Market set for higher open” suddenly becomes “Market set for weak start”.
Ta Da!
Like fucking magic; nothing to see here.
Quick question: what do Chevron executives and rape victims have in common?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20100626&id=11644848
Why do they insist on doing business with Chavez’ regime? The Venezuela governments answer to every instance of insolvency is seizure of foreign assets. And those bastards run huge deficits, so insolvency is a constant looming threat.
How dumb do you have to be, to sit across the table from someone like that?
It would seem like unless there’s an unlimited supply of oil that eventually oil should go much higher because of the spil and it could happen very soon. It seems like gold is going to break out as it continues to melt up and diverge from the dry bulk. Dry bulk has a tendency to produce retarded like drops just look at a 5 year chart and you’ll see it can just as quickly bounce back.
This is currently about the mortgage resets and the 700 trillion derivative market along with it. However feds and governments responses around the world seemed to be until the recent austerity measures to combat deflation with inflation. This is a big wildcard and was a bit of a suprise for the mentality to shift from adding programs to cutting back. Sure even 2% of derivative market melt down would be devastating, but all this is temporary and the game is set up to reproduce bubble after bubble with the government bubble being the last line of defense.
Sometime by 2011 we’ll be through the worst of the deflationary fears and things will continue to move towards inflationary after that. If we battle this with inflation first we will have our deflationary hell hole and then while some parts of the world suffer deflationary depression as the world double dips, the US will no longer have the Chinese or Japanese backing them and the Dollar could lose reserve currency status and that could send us into a hyperinflationary spin that we will have to battle with fucking 40% interest rates and shit.
and we opened higher…so “arch” wins the prize…