To be continued. The bulls escaped what should have been a 1929 style rout today, on the backs of that fucked up housing number. Get this folks: housing is at a fresh new low, yet here we are making believe shit is good, based solely upon the stock prices. Huh?!?
Since when has the market been a good forward looking indicator? Do not be tricked by the tricksters with chocolate bars in their side pockets.
Put aside the price action for a minute and recognize what’s going on. Have a moment of clarity, while enjoying the serenity of life, over an OVERSIZED mug filled with Monster Energy Soda. Things are getting worse. I was on board, 100%, just a few months ago. I based my bullish thesis on low inventory levels and a “normalization” of earnings. However, since then, things have taken a fucking turn for the worse, AND MORE. The entirely of the South East and Gulf of Mexico is in danger of becoming America’s “Deadlands.” You cannot simply ignore these headwinds and expect good results.
Until better data, I will remain light in equities, heavy in cash, and light in shorts. Remember, my goal is not to make a killing selling short. I am only interested in preservation of capital, coupled with a little growth. On a personal level, I am balls to the wall short. As a matter of fact, and this might draw a good deal of criticism, should the market go against me: I am 100% short, no cash.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpgy9IA4mKE&feature=youtube_gdata 616 500]Indeud.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyYcB9AUMmU 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
The most interesting market in the world. “If it punched you in the face, you’d have to resist the urge to thank it”.
That’s a bold call — I’m on board the TZAmobile.
you will be a billionaire from your personal account.
Makes sense, maybe even cents. The Owl of Minerva is wing fluttering on news Obama wants to issue an executive order to give immediate amnesty to the 12 million or so illegal immigrants. Sounds like go long on private prison operators. Whatever, the country is being buggered.
When you say you’re 100% short personally, what exactly doesn that mean?…that your entire liquid net worth is short? Or that you’ve partitioned off a small slice of “good times” cash to play with?
Only idiots keep their net worth 100% in stocks.
I personally keep most of my wealth in oversized cowboy hats and boxes full of pinwheels. So you’ve got kind of a hedge on your career, via monster personal short sales…so if the market gets the “bris party in the middle of Demascus” style treatment, your business might potentially suffer from less new clients, but you are getting “TaZA’d” so it’s cool.
The Wimbledon match is now 59-59 and on ESPNU-HD.
Just suspended the match.
Lazy players.
Should have sent Fly over there with his racquet or me with my Jack Kramer Wilson wood racquet.
incredible day in the world of sports
Flip on Fox Sports and Watch this Strasburg mow down the Royals.
Paul Bunyan
Congrats to your Royals. I see Srasburg struck out 9 in some six innings.
Looks a little like Pedro Martinez or Sandy Koufax when on the mound
He needs to not throw as hard as often or else he won’t last (like Koufax).
What happened to the KC ribs avatar?
TC!
Glad to see you back buddy. Everything ok?
__
Ballsy. simply ballsy.
Must be tough to manage two accounts–clients’ and personal. It’s sort of trying to win in chess with yourself as a partner.
One of the major events of the Great Depression was the Dust Bowl. Perhaps the Gulf “Deadlands” will be our new Dust Bowl.
The same song I’ve been singing for the past 3 weeks: DOW 9000!
I’ve been 100% short for 2 weeks. Now I have Le Fly on my side. “Win” is in our future, indeed.
thanks for getting into the funnel
PS, Drake’s the best lyricist in the world right now.
Or in my case, “ball to the wall short”
time to capture the rain in LA?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/23/raining-oil-in-louisiana_n_622815.html
Time for MON to develop CE corn (Corexit), so the oil can pass right through us. Of course, there will be no side-effects of the CE on biological organisms, well not unacceptable side-effects anyway… at least none you can prove without years of legal banter and disinformation.
Hah. Maybe we can eat it and crap out oil to power our cars. exxon and chipotle could have some great promotions together
Okay, but in a depression scenario, the dollar is not what it used to be. Priced in dollars stocks lost what, 90% during great depression? Dow/Gold went to 1, but the dollar WAS gold. Shouldn’t that mean that when things go bad, the dollar doesn’t rally like crazy this time around and that means that stock priced in dollars don’t tank?
Isn’t everything backwards this time so that people actually move into stocks and gold?
Does anyone have a Germany stock market chart of the weimar republic and other hyperinflation scenarios? I heard someone earlier talking about how a deflationary crash happens before the inflation and I just wanted to see somereference points and see what they’re talkin about.
Clouded the future is. Roll over on your stomach to the dark side.
All the stellar news today was already priced in. That is today’s gay market action excuse.
Fly great blogging.
The news is so bad its comical…
BP..Euro..Housing..DEBT PILE
Could it be for the next year we
just circle jerk between 9,500 and 11,000
with violent moves each way…….
The Psychology is broken on Wall Joke
and D.C. no confidence no market.
Rigged game buddy….these fuckers will
rake every $100 bill in the game. ETF’s,
DirexionX3 LMAO….BP , C, AIG…what a
healthy market we have.
Hey did you bann[sic] my buddy
V.King bench press boy?
shit yo, and I just went long at weekly support.
isn’t the nasdaq gon gain a hundred pts now?
You have to guage globally.
Comparing anything to “The Great Depression” is just a waste of time.
I tend to side with “mrkcbill ” about the Dow bouncing between levels vs another cliff dive as the World Markets in general suck….but suck somewhat ‘equally’
No fat kid on one side of the teeter totter
Most of my money I spent on beer and women. The rest of it I just wasted.
At least one of those has some dividends.
Hey Fly,
Still looking for a new house?
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/article/canadianpress/1679/75m-mansion-near-orlando-selling-as-is
I wonder how many contractors lost their ass when work stopped along with payments. That place is sad at so many levels.
Seeing this retarded market continue to shrug off bad news, from unexpected jumps in jobless claims to this miserable housing data and the ongoing disaster in the gulf, I can’t help but lean a little long right now (via SPY Calls) after this slight pullback. I am bearish overall, but I think the bull-jerkers will press us a bit higher before the next big toilet flush.
it’s the same pattern as last summer. tons of crap news and economic data piling up on the negative side and the market went on with a pretty massive non-stop run. the old mantra might be back (might). bad news = good news. good news = good news. trade accordingly.
On a side note. Have yaw heard that song. “God is great ,beer is good, and people are crazy”
The Fly: do you follow 200 50 Day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) at all? Which do you follow?
Thanks,
D.O.
Charts are for idiots! The Fly reads the Wall Street Journal TWICE every day.
100% short? I rike it! Not even honorary IBC fave, TK is 100% short at the moment.
100 percent short in personal accounts, not clients
No more FTK? 🙁
Tomorrow will be a strong rally… I’m looking forward to it.
We need DevilDog, now.
I need to get his cartoon out of my head.
Wow Rudd just gave up the PM spot in the land down under…OZ popped but fading .
Market is Sso tzaerribly faztarded right now. I think it’s getting to the point where people say “bad news, yes! Things can’t get much worse, a rally is near!”
I mean what on earth would happen if tommorrow we woke up and cancer was cured, a pill replacing the need for food was invented, apple released the iSex making it possible to get laid regardless of how fugly you are with a $10 per peice “app” compatible with a woman of your choice, the Messiah came down from heaven eliminating all debt, destroying all shorts, turning oil into wine, turning all leveraged shorts stocks to X100 upside ETFs, and converting all cars so that they run on “blessings” and giving everyone the power to eliminate anyone’s pessamism, and also blessed the buying of stocks and told everyone that the greater the stock portfolio, the greater the reward in heaven, and The Devil himself showed up and announced his retirement from evil, making sin feel horrible and doing good deeds for society and businesses feels better than doing coke? Dow 1,000,000?
On the other hand, what the hell kind of news did people need to hear for the markets to crash today?
Scenario 1: markets go “super gay” and rally and continue to push higher until august sucking as many retards in that it can before the market wakes up and smells the shorts and supercrashes.
Scenario 2: markets wake up within the next money and finally crash and exhaust themselves of margin calls probably around August as well foming a super bottom.
I’m wondering what the hell the governments and Bernanke are going to do if the markets crash, have a $100,000 per person super awesome stimulous package ($30 Trillion)?
US at some point is going to have to either
A) Refuse to pay their unfunded liabilities (social security, medicare, etc)
B) Borrow 100 trillion dollars to pay for it.
C) Default on it’s debt
D) something super radical which includes but doesn’t limit a number of things
E) any combination of all of the above
What if you go into earnings season and the vast majority of the “important” companies continue to beat and outperform? What if they continue to push productivity to unbelievable levels? Would you consider this bull run cheap after a 13% correction?
Did anyone hear Chambers talking about the outlook?
Bernanke has survived a brutal enviroment, he’s not about to give up on it now. They will make sure we get ample supply of free money. It has fueled the economy thus far, why give up now?
Not sure if everyone else is hunkered down in a cave not spending money, but i see alot of money being sloshed around out there. The Fly himself has propped up the East coast GDP with Fine wine and palm trees that disinigrate to dust by winter time.
You will have to excuse my rosy outlook but i drank four glasses of the Bernanke Koolaid tonight.
i sir have faith… we go higher… the gloom and doom is over…and all the minute disorders in the world could be cured by phone calls.. also i beleave we caught a glimpse of that when the euro rose also when the yuan was valued up..was that a test to see what would happen or how much has to happen??? and it will happen
Well you have Arch and Bullish on one side of the trade……and Fly in his personal account and Me, Nymph both very heavy short on the other side of the trade…
Me too. With my cute little bear cubs TZA and VXX.
Here they are, BTW: http://bit.ly/2aqFb
Article 88—Contempt toward officials
“Any commissioned officer who uses contemptuous words against the President, the Vice President, Congress, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of a military department, the Secretary of Transportation, or the Governor or legislature of any State, Territory, Commonwealth, or possession in which he is on duty or present shall be punished as a court-martial may direct.”
They are all gay.
“”In the magazine article, McChrystal called the period last fall when the president was deciding whether to approve more troops “painful” and said the president appeared ready to hand him an “unsellable” position. McChrystal also said he was “betrayed” by Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, the man the White House chose to be his diplomatic partner in Afghanistan.
He accused Eikenberry of raising doubts about Karzai only to give himself cover in case the U.S. effort failed. And he was quoted mocking Biden. “” ~~AP
I don’t think any of that rises to “contemptuous.”
con·temp·tu·ous?
–adjective
showing or expressing contempt or disdain; scornful
Still, I think the guy was stupid to have that reporter get so comfortable around his staff, and to allow a culture where such talk was tolerated in his inner circle. Maybe he should not be general for having poor judgement.
The guy is a warrior, not a PR mouthpiece. He should not be expected to be PC as it is not his job.
Indeed. He knew that when he took the job. Everybody knows that, except Savage.
I don’t listen to that drivel. It’s a sideshow distraction.
JANUARY
Long month
Winter rally historically fades in early January
FEBRUARY
Long month
MARCH
Long month
St. Patrick’s Day Rally (March15-17)
Late March short market
Triple witching volume and volatility on 3rd Friday, final hour
APRIL
Long month
Late April begin to short for long-term
MAY
Short or sideways month.
JUNE
Short or sideways month
Low volume
Triple witching volume and volatility on 3rd Friday, final hour
JULY
Short or sideways month
Low volume
AUGUST
Short or sideways month
Low volume
SEPTEMBER
Short or sideways month
Bears win the week after options expiration in Sept.
Rise after 9/11
Rise after Labor Day
Triple witching volume and volatility on 3rd Friday, final hour
OCTOBER
Short or sideways month
Options Expiration Week 10/20
Begin buying long positions middle of October
October 19th, the day of the 1987 crash, has a reputation
of not being kind to investors who are long stocks (bearish day).
NOVEMBER
Long month
Options Expiration Week 11/17
Trading around Thanksgiving usually is dictated by low volume and higher volaility
DECEMBER
Long month
Options Expiration Week 12/15
Triple witching volume and volatility on 3rd Friday, final hour
I cannot believe you put clips of a hate-mongering rating whore
Agreud. Drake is trash.
Drake is as ghey as a $3 bill.
You’re all old.
OEW Summary for Wed:
“Today’s early morning selling took the SPX down to the 50% retracement level, (see yesterday’s post), of the recent 1042-1131 Intermediate wave A rally. With an extreme short term oversold condition and holding at the OEW 1090 swing pivot the market then rallied. It’s certainly possible this was the low of Intermediate wave B. Nothing confirmed by the short term OEW charts yet, and the low may still get retested. However, as long as the OEW 1090 pivot range holds we should start to see higher prices soon. Looks like we’ll need to clear SPX 1100 to get the momentum going positive again.”
As I predicted the other day, 1131>1088>1136 … Missed the low by a few points and revising the move back up to 1141 then selling longs in earnest and adding shorts for the ride down to 945. Laters …..
Is it true that the former BP CEO now heading Goldman Sachs dumped 44% of their BP stock before the explosion? Did the current BP CEO dump 1.4 million pounds of his stock before the explosion?
Maybe the mainstream media will cover this in some good old fashioned investigative reporting? NOT !!! LOL.
Is it true that the former BP CEO now heading Goldman Sachs dumped 44% of their BP stock before the explosion?
What the fuck are you talking about. Blankfein, the current head of GS has never ever headed BP.
Peter Sutherland IS managing director, as well as chairman, of Goldman Sachs International.
He was until recently Chairman of BP.
Just curious if the information going around the net had any merit.
nonetheless — the market is paying exorbitant prices for NFLX (gapping UP this morn), BIDU, SNDK… on and on.
All the bad news being spouted here by amateurs is KNOWN. And half of it doesn’t even affect the economy.
Pay attention to the markets, not your stupid opinions which nobody cares about.
To completely ignore opinions would be foolish as they more than anything else are what actually drives the market when it comes down to it..
Fly is correct in his assessment that the GoM fiasco will have far reaching and long lasting effects on our national economy. Not just the gulf area. This event is going to unfold over a very protracted period of time. I’m thinking that human, aquatic and other animal life on the shores of the gulf will not be the same for maybe 2-3 decades. They are hopelessly and irrevocably screwed.
The trouble with the housing data is that it is localized but sold like it is countrywide (no pun intended). There are pockets of this country that are going to hell in a hand basket the way of the Dodo or Detroit. There are other pockets that, despite every effort to deflate the economy, housing prices still boom. I have been watching the SF Bay California housing market for several years waiting for it to find a fucking bottom, but they are still selling little 800sf condos for $600K. Housing is cheaper is Westchester NY and it’s expensive here compared to redneck middle America.
The little 1200sf house that was selling for 1.6 mil 4 years ago is now 1.5 mil. It’s not much of a bust. So my feeling is that it’s like Darwin, survival of the fittest county, city or state, but a sustained housing bust has come to an end.