I hardly worked today, mainly because work, in every sense of the word, is stupid. Sometimes you need to unwind, drink a few shots of tequila and squirt lime juice in peoples faces.
Just when you thought the market was setting up to rape its audience, BAM, it rips the heads off of the shorts’ puny shoulders. You must admit, this type of trading action is awfully brain-racking and non-conducive to sanity.
It was a bad day for me, losing money in most of my positions, longs and VXX/TZA alike. It was just one of those wasteful days that you wish never happened, yet did nevertheless.
Back at it tomorrow.
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PPT update messing with your trading style?
not at all.
It has made me much better
I have to keep reminding myself the same thing this is a funny money market thriving off the latest disasters as yet another reason to throw money around to prop up the political leaders to prevent total chaos.
Your innate reasoning knows this but as always it has nothing to do with the reality being painted on screen if anything it still thrives on it.
poetry
Still leaning short with titanium testicles intact, but will definitely drink heavily tonight. This market is a motherfucker. Just when you can’t stand it any longer and finally bail, it will turn around. Better to stand your ground for now and wait it out, though often nauseating and painful in the meantime.
RC is the mo-fo man! Besides The Fly.. RC is my favorite blogger followed by chessNwine. Today reminded me why it’s great to have the entire Seasons of 24 on NetFlix.
Good time to sit tight and catch up on some shows.
RC and Chess are great.
is seems that this bull has secret titanium balls too in the close .
question. if the market grinds in this tight range of up/down 40 ish points for a while would the PPT eventually cool off to neutral or oversold again? wondering if it has similar principles as the MACD and other indicators based around moving averages that return to neutral once momentum gets stuck. (still signing up for the PPT this week either way). thx.
A tight range would not bring score lower that low. It could settle in around 2.40-2.80 in a market like that. But to see extreme readings, we need a decisive move. Having said that, the 3.20 reading from several days ago still means the next large move is lower. Since then, we’ve steadily lifted higher. However, I would hardly call it decisive.
You know, to me this is never work,total fun always.
The PPT works tho there are lags at times. It shows overbought- so its just a matter of a day or two before the market tanks.
Go bears. 950 – here we come!
This market is doing the same thing to the bears as it did to the bulls a month and a half ago.
You can list ten reasons why this market is overbought, over valued, or why it should go lower… yet it goes higher.
In April I could have listed ten reasons why this market should keep rallying, yet it broke down.
All very Costanza like… Just do the opposite in this type of market.
“Sell in May and go away”
“Get raped sideways in June so says the Buffoon ”
“Tank the market in July so says Le FLY”.
Good ring to that….
Quarter ending rape job sideways until June 30th in my opinion, fall off a cliff come July/August
To paraphrase Athol Fugard, by way of Spalding Grey (+peace be upon him):
The market is a beautiful lady, Spalding: you may play IN her, but if you play WITH her –
You will be cornholed…
Relax. The mkt was up 20 points today
This market will continue to chop like mad, but with a downward bias. What’s bullish for oil is bullish for most commodities. Actually, the entire materials and food sector. Drilling moratoriums, unlimited lawsuits, are all potentially bullish for USO.
But, the massive underestimated damage on the gulf shores is bearish for everything not commodity related.Any real estate/residential property/hotel/restaurant within 5 miles of the gulf coast is about to see a decline for years. Look at New Orleans. The tourist part of the city (french quarter) was virtually undamaged. But, the psychological effect spooks away tourists to this day. It never recovered. There is no way in hell BP gets away with only paying 20 billion.
So, in a sense, we have a great case for inflation, against a great case for deflation at the same time. This market will whipsaw like mad until that’s sorted out—albeit with a moderate downward slope
Lots of bearish commentors on your morning post
Only Slim pointed out the obvious, there’s no reason to be bearish right now.
The charts are setting up, after big moves we’re consolidating nicely above the 200 which favor more upside.
Of course that could change in a heartbeat but that’s how it looks right now.
The next round of weak euro and weak yen will dash any hopes of a rally in commodities and commodity stocks against a titanium studded rock wall.
Market could go much higher than many expect in the near term…..then melt down again, of course.
Life is good as a trader.
i love these range bound markets – they are fun to trade – that is once you’ve figured out they are no longer trending! thanks for the laugh fly..
I pay the hooker and it’s prostitution. I don’t pay the hooker and it’s rape.
It was both for LT.
Great day to play some golf, have a few pitchers and watch the US Open…anything else was a waste of time…including watching the World Cup.
Let me repeat an earlier point more clearly: thr dow was up 20 points. Do not declare victory
It’s not a victory till you actually sell
I think Cramer is talking about many people on this site.
He calls it a pajama party. Traders sitting in their pajamas furiously buying and selling – pushing the market all over the place.
I however am not wearing my pj’s.
Meanwhile,
in a hidden bunker beneath JPM’s prop desk………
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3fIgf3TeiQ
Master Fly
I am still wet behind the ears in thus whole game we play so i come to you with this question, or any one else who reads this. Do you think the govt is involved in supporting this market? I can not understand how it grinds higher on a day like today what so ever. Besides technicals, what could be the deal. Are big boys rigging a bull trap?
Its called low volume HFT and stat arb bots doing battle.
which govt
Also the OMMs are crushing vols right now and that is calming the bots so they are stretching it out along with levering back into the carry trade.
Streams of tequila last night rendered me useless today.
coffee, oats and natty prob worth watching tomorrow imo.
Based on accumulation numbers from PPT, bond funds, treasury bond funds, euro-up ETF, dollar down ETF are getting accumulated heavily. Kinda contradictory. Because when dollar down funds and euro up funds are accumulated, equities tend to rise. However, when the afore mentioned bond funds are getting accumulated, equities tend to fall down.
But then get this, a few commodity based ETFs are also under heavy accumulation. To me, that is the tie breaker and hence I am leaning towards rise in equities for the short term. That being said, tomorrow is a pure coin toss given the quad expiration day. On second thoughts, every day is a fucking coin toss!
Jose Cuervo gives me such warm fuzzies.
I love Gold, the precious metal and the tequila.
Great combination.
Jake, Tim on Slope has changed his mind about shorting the GDX.
Says if it can get past its December high, it has the potential to run to 71
by the end of the year.
Long GDX, KGC and PHYS.
Just got back from two days of golfing where i left all my positions unmolested. Was interesting to find that i have been raped every which way….crushed on my TZA and VXX positions (hedges), murdered amongst my various put positions (as i knew would happened), and generally not too profitable in my QQQQ and VBR positions.
However, there is one bright spot. The 25% of my portfolio thats in gold, much thanks to DecisionMoose, did offset some of my losses. That yellow metal is really something…im starting to be a believer.
I am in the right shoulder camp…
Cash is king
For my first and probably last post here
Hell yeah!!
the Government supports the markets , they buy E-minis, ETF’s
and everything in between at times. It’s Not just our Government buying our stocks either.
One can never rule out a prop up at key levels from the GOV traders.
Or the regular big boys as well for that matter.
I doubt they want us to be at S&P 900 when fall elections come around.
Currently, the market goes up only because people, traders, brokerage houses and investment firms want it to. They are still ignoring the fact that the worldwide economy is screwed until we go through and experience the great unwinding. Mother market will vacillate for another year to a year and a half, maybe two, while governments all over the globe try ever increasing methods and ways to keep things inflated. We will have another plunge ala 2008-2009 and subsequent bounce, maybe not as severe and not back to current levels. Then after a period of gradual decline everyone will lose confidence and the plug will be pulled. I’m guessing a 65-80% pullback. After that WWIII will ensue and things will recycle as in the 40’s and 50’s with 1/3 of the worlds population gone.
Enjoy the rest of your time on earth.. 🙂
You heard it here first. Oh. BTW, the US dollah will be a haven for a short time as one by one the other currencies flounder and slip over the edge of the abyss. Eventually, it too will succumb to the same fate.
On a brighter note, The Keltics are kicking Laker ass right now.
Spoke too soon Heaterman!
Yup … Lakers go to free throw line 15 times in q4 after being a well called game up to that point … The refs won again and my son now thinks the NBA is the WWF, odd no?
Yah. The foul thing stunk all over the place. The Kelt’s had like 19 fouls between their main guys and the Lakers had 4. Something is wrong with that. Talk about taking a team out of a game.
I was thinking the same thing. Maybe they should re-name it the WWBA.