Bulls Lose Again

I took an hour or so off today to communicate with the commoners (you) on my stupid blog. The result: sheer rage.

I can honestly say, 95% of people should not be managing their own money, let alone the savings of others. I have a big readership, no thanks to any of you. I’ve been throwing old ladies off boats for years now, on this here interwebs. I have learned that most people who read blogs are inexperienced tea baggers, better suited for the luxury of a rubber room than an office with a computer.

I have people banned from visiting this site all the time, mainly due to them annoying me or spreading fuckery, across iBankCoin. Let it be known, NOTHING pisses me off more than stupidity. Look you, I have a very high IQ and don’t have time to parse words with you. If you read the site and gain something from it, great. If not, you are welcome to go visit one of the two, or both!, gay Tim’s blogs. Go ahead, no one is stopping you.

I NEVER need your advice, whether it is related to finance, running a first class finance site or anything else. That’s right, I am getting all pissy and shit; what are you going to do about it? You can say: “The Fly is being a dick”; because it’s true: I am a dick. Frankly, I don’t care what you think; just stay out of my way.

As for trading:

I made more than 3% today, thanks in large part to SRS. At the close of trade, I am long FAZ, SRS, SSG, FXP, SCO, CIEN, WRI, ISIL, EZCH, GU and TLT. My sole short position is [[ACC]]. Moreover, my allocation is 55% short, 25% long and 15% cash, 5% bonds.

Over the next week or two, methodically, I will leg out of my shorts, just like I “legged in.” I do believe the market will hit new lows in 2009, just not yet. I am targeting S&P 600 by November.

At any rate, if you are short stocks, it’s important to take some money off the table on days like this, especially in this market—which is actively manipulated by secretive government agencies.

NOTE: The PPT nailed the near term top in the market to the exact day, yet again. Here is a chart that I posted on PPT last week, highlighting all previous Overall Hybrid readings of 3 aka the “ultimate sell signal in a bear market.”

“The Fly” is busy buying corporate bonds. After all, it’s not like the government will ever let big companies go bust. And, even if they did, no way they have the balls to let the bond holders eat dirt.

I’m allocating some of my cash (5%) to a myriad of corps, trading at a discount. I am buying CAT finance 7.15%/2019’s, GE Capital 4.8%/2013’s and T 5.5%/2018’s.

Truth be told, I am delighted to see many of your bullshitters get taken to the dry cleaners today, heavily starched, lightly ironed out. You treaded heavy and got caught stuck on the stupid pole, long asinine stocks, into a 25% lift.

You will pay for all previous affronts now.

Into the bell, “The Fly” is tempted to buy more FAZ and short more [[ACC]]. However, he will tame himself into eating a turkey sandwich instead. If you are sick of losing money and don’t know what to do, just quit and dedicate your time collecting aluminum cans. Quite frankly, I’m bored of bowling on you fuckers, week in and week out. I need to find a new hobby, like kicking unsuspecting old men down flood drains or teenagers down steep flights of spiked stairs.

Good times. Boat drinks.

UPDATE: I sold some of my SRS, purchased in the high 30’s/low 40’s at $43.55

My bones feel some sort of ominous shift in investor sentiment, away from the half hazard recommendation of James Cramer to the benevolent stewardship of men, like Senor Tropicana. Depressions do not end with 1 1/2 years of “fuck you, you’re dead” trading, then back to “party like it’s 1999, with coke” action.

It will be a long grind, before we start lining up the dedicated bears for castration.

With my money, I went to cash on a few positions, namely [[TQNT]], [[TLAB]] and half of [[CIEN]]. And, following my natural tendency to despise oil, I initiated a position in [[SCO]].

With regards to oil:

I am early to short it. However, I believe, in time, I will be proven correct, betting against it near $50.

As for my short exposure:

I am long SSG, FAZ, FXP and SRS. And, I am short [[ACC]]. I am not naive to believe the market is going to dump out here, and dive to new lows. But, at a minimum, we are overdue a correction to the tune of 10%.

However, there are many of you who still believe in mustard seeds and endless “bottoming out action,” as evidenced by subtle strength in select banks like [[C]], [[COF]], [[BAC]], [[MS]] and [[GS]] this morning.

So, my gameplan is to stay light by avoiding big directional bets. At the present, my cash position is approaching 20% and my shorts a little more than 50%. I will not jump on or off any bandwagons. Instead, I will wait for good entry points for long trades, since my short exposure is already bountiful.

Bottom line: Keeping shorts against banks/CRE in place and initiating a bearish position in crude. For now, leaving existing longs in place, just in case the asshole dip buyers emerge. And, use market weakness to purchase semiconductor stocks.

NOTE: The UK upped its stake in [[RBS]] to 70%. As a result, most European banks are getting slammed, namely, [[DB]], [[BCS]], [[LYG]] and [[UBS]]. I am a bit surprised U.S. banks are not down more.

I bought 5,000 [[SCO]] around $30.

Disclaimer: If you buy SCO because of this post, your neighbors dog will relieve himself on your herb garden. And, you may lose money.

All joking aside, foundries aka “the place where wafers are magically turned into semiconductors” are seeing factory utilization rates spike, which could indicate a sustainable bottom for the semis. Of course, there is always the chance of a 2001-esque headfake. However, given the extraordinarily low levels of inventory, it is possible that orders will stabilize and start to increase into 2010.

Some of the more bullish forecasts call for a spike, in the range of 10-15%, in semi sales for 2010. Just to put that in perspective, sales for semis dropped by 30% in ’08 and are heading for another 20% drop in ’09.

Nonetheless, two of the biggest foundries, [[TSM]] and [[UMC]], say sales have increased in March, thanks to “substantial new orders.”

At the present, factory utilization rates stand at approximately 70%. During boom times, it is not uncommon for utilization rates to go north of 95%. So, with that in mind, the industry is not exactly breaking out.

Investors are bidding up shares, in anticipation of a bottom. If they are correct, they will make a fortune, since the semis are still very cheap, by historical measures. However, if this is nothing more than a blip on the way to hell, investors of semi stocks will have their balls handed to them on a fucking filthy wafer.

How does one profit from this Godly news?

Well, for one, you need to go up the food chain and start with the foundries themselves, [[TSM]], [[UMC]] and maybe soon to be bankrupt [[CHRT]], for a bounce.

Then, you go long the companies who test and package the wafers, such as [[AMKR]], [[TQNT]], [[SPIL]], [[TER]], [[ASX]], [[ATE]], [[KLIC]], [[UCTT]] and [[RTEC]].

Granted, the majority of the above companies are garbagio; but, they can run with great vigor if the cycle is heading for an upcycle. Back in 2003, I played [[AMKR]] from $2-ish up to $20-ish.

In addition, there is evidence of end user demand strength at [[RFMD]] and [[SWKS]]. And, handset makers, like [[RIMM]] and [[AAPL]], are weathering the depression like true gentlemen, sipping on fine brandy, while the ship sinks.

Finally, another stock to keep an eye on is [[OVTI]]. These are the guys who invented the camera for handheld devices, then watched in horror as Japanese and Korean players ate away at their margins and market share. At any rate, they just landed an iPhone contract. Considering the stock is saddled with a monstrous short position, the shares can run higher, if properly prodded.

NOTE: Gartner research does not think we are near a bottom for the semis. However, they do recognize the stabilization of orders at the foundries and “record low inventories.” In a note of caution, unemployment amongst engineers has risen from 2.8% in ’08 to 4.1% in ’09. As you probably don’t know, due to laziness and/or ineptitude, engineers help create jobs. Their employment statistics are viewed as forward looking indicators for the economy.

NOTE II: A foreign name worth perusing or nibbling at is Sonix Technology, maker of PC cam controllers. As reported by the company, they are enjoying a brisk pick up in sales, thanks in large part to the notebook market.

UPDATE: I sold out of my [[TQNT]] position, north of $3.30.

UPDATE II: I sold out of [[TLAB]] and half of my [[CIEN]] @ $4.50 and $8.22, respectively.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXv5BsLH32k&feature=related 450 300]

You thought the market would close higher, didn’t you? You were over there, sipping on that sugary orange soda, like a fucking loser, rooting the market higher—while watching that bastard of a clip— showing Meredith Whitney all scared and shit of shorting banks.

Let it be known, “The Fly” no longer supports the work of Meredith Whitney. He will now work to support Michael Mayo and all of his endeavors.

The trading action in SRS is abusive to the sensibilities of all investors, long and short. It’s impossible to bank coin, while the market zig-zags around like a lunatic top.

Into the bell, I sold out of my AAPL position, which has been in my portfolio for years, cost basis of about $50. I am sure the stock can run higher. But, every time I feel like it’s ready to rip off the balls of a few million bears, it succumbs to fuckery and trades lower. So, I am out.

In my trading accounts, I remain long TLT, TQNT, ISIL, CIEN, EZCH, STAR, GU, DE, TLAB, SRS, SSG and FAZ.

My only short is ACC.

Bottom line: you’re fucked if you do, fucked if you don’t.

Enjoy.

Aside from the WRI sale this morning (I still have 5k long), I will not be selling anything today, no matter what. I do not trust the fervor and tenacity of the bears to bring this fucker lower. As long as men in tight rubber pants are bouncing around on CNBC, exclaiming “the economy is getting better,” it’s best to be cautious with overweighting on the short side.

Oil and other commodities are getting nailed to their respective coffins today, helping oil/gas/ag stocks trade decidedly lower. For some odd reason, there are a lot of buyers in tech today, led by RIMM and AAPL. Very, very odd.

Nonetheless, should this market trade higher today, I’d be willing to scale the Empire State Building naked or flash by the Fast Money set, neat Times Square. I am absolute in my convictions that the market, led by stupid banks and dastardly CRE will trade lower today.

Top picks: Short ACC/long GU.

I sold short 10,000 ACC @ $19.30.

Disclaimer: If you sell short ACC because of this post, your kids will grow up to be bankrupt and homeless. And, you may lose money.

Pardon me, I do not mean to rain on your gay parade. I come with a message in hand, it reads:

Dearest Retail Investor,

Don’t pay attention to what the blogs say about us; we love you. To prove our love, we will give you what you desire more than anything else: more stocks and bonds. The market has been so difficult and “trying” these last two years; we felt it was our duty to reward the retail investor (you) via large/behemoth secondary and bond offerings. Some might say “companies are flat-out, stone cold, fucking bankrupt. Fuck your secondaries.” However, those miscreants are all liars and thieves, originated by jealous socialists or communists— who want to take your guns away and declare the Bible “fiction.”

In closing, we want to make you happy. Call your local broker and tell him you are interested in some dilutive constructive secondary offerings. In the coming months, we will be “gifting” you with so much supply, you will feel like a little girl in a barbie doll store.

Let’s rebuild America, one offering at a time.

Sincerely yours in earnest,

Wall Street