My bones feel some sort of ominous shift in investor sentiment, away from the half hazard recommendation of James Cramer to the benevolent stewardship of men, like Senor Tropicana. Depressions do not end with 1 1/2 years of “fuck you, you’re dead” trading, then back to “party like it’s 1999, with coke” action.
It will be a long grind, before we start lining up the dedicated bears for castration.
With my money, I went to cash on a few positions, namely [[TQNT]], [[TLAB]] and half of [[CIEN]]. And, following my natural tendency to despise oil, I initiated a position in [[SCO]].
With regards to oil:
I am early to short it. However, I believe, in time, I will be proven correct, betting against it near $50.
As for my short exposure:
I am long SSG, FAZ, FXP and SRS. And, I am short [[ACC]]. I am not naive to believe the market is going to dump out here, and dive to new lows. But, at a minimum, we are overdue a correction to the tune of 10%.
However, there are many of you who still believe in mustard seeds and endless “bottoming out action,” as evidenced by subtle strength in select banks like [[C]], [[COF]], [[BAC]], [[MS]] and [[GS]] this morning.
So, my gameplan is to stay light by avoiding big directional bets. At the present, my cash position is approaching 20% and my shorts a little more than 50%. I will not jump on or off any bandwagons. Instead, I will wait for good entry points for long trades, since my short exposure is already bountiful.
Bottom line: Keeping shorts against banks/CRE in place and initiating a bearish position in crude. For now, leaving existing longs in place, just in case the asshole dip buyers emerge. And, use market weakness to purchase semiconductor stocks.
NOTE: The UK upped its stake in [[RBS]] to 70%. As a result, most European banks are getting slammed, namely, [[DB]], [[BCS]], [[LYG]] and [[UBS]]. I am a bit surprised U.S. banks are not down more.
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fig
Good call. Looks like if volume picks up in afternoon we have a distribution day and cien and tlab have been fucking the dog. ISIL looks alright. (*Just the opinion of some Dude in all 3) I hope we do turn around this is just bull shit rally from day 1. That said if we don’t I hope you don’t get fucked with a high average on FAZ. Look at FAS so many bought in teens thinking it was a deal now.. When will it ever break 10!? That said similar for faz just a week ago $40 or $30 was a “FUCKING DEAL” now there are people averaged in the high 20’s buying a ladder and appropriate rope with their remaining $20US.
GOOD DAY!
Fuck you! You’re DEAD, bulls. What will be surprising is to see that AA could potentially be inline with earnings and cause a market rally. Now that’s some shit to see.
Fly:
Out of the bunch which semi would you pick… are there any that actually made money?
Fly nice addition to your posts. Those PPT references.
How do I do that? PPT reference?
Anyone miss me?
SFLY looks like it’ll use 10 for support soon.
I made nice gains in TQNT and SPIL. And, I am up on ISIL.
I am just getting situated with the sector again.
RC:
[[stock]]
A space alien magician told me SFLY would break $10 today based on the volume so far this morning. He also said that because everyone is focused on earnings, and the fact that SFLY announced yesterday that they will report in a few weeks, has caused a perfect setup for SFLY to BTFO in anticipation of blow away numbers like last qtr.
Towards $15 is what this alien told me to target for price. He said scale out and don’t be greedy though.
Low low volume. The US banks may not be getting hit hard on the European bank news because there may be a flight of deposits into US banks and the dollar. Then again who knows Tiny Tim’s plan has a lot of optimism built up around it. Will it work??? Who knows? I am not that sure that it will
Did you see that stupid thing GM will be building?
That is what happens when the government tells a Co. what to build.
They will sell at least six of them.
Probably to the Shriners so they can use them instead of their clown cars for the Shriner’s Parade.
A car that resembles an egg. How quaint.
Am I taking crazy pills, but doesn’t it sound like Tiny Tim is using these institutions as an excuse to funnel taxpayer money into bank accounts. Now that’s some serious coin bankage!
i can only hope for a 10% correction. i have been trapped with FAZ in the low 20s. but i stand by the fact that in the end Banks are still messed up.
i continue to be jealous of those getting in on FAZ<20. i would rather spot FAS 2011 Leap puts than FAZ. Still cheap.
Yeah.
I believe Mork (Mork and Mindy (old TV show)) was born out of one of those cars.
Like a chick coming out of an egg.
I predict a huge increase of carjacking (eggjacking) when they hit the market.
I would love to see a police chase on cable trying to run that thing down on the Interstate. And when the chase is over a guy comes out looking like Bozo The Clown.
i think if anything my LONG on solar will pay off with Mr. Obama sending some tax money their way.
i already have puts on NOC… it looks like LMT was a better short/put for defense related stocks.
imagine the $Billions/maybe trillion spend on defense each year, especially on ‘projects’. Anyway, no sense venting off on them. But those Billions should be spend on the kids and on subsidizing healthy food instead of the junk food (tho it does taste good), MEDICARE is whacked because of all the obese smokers with diabetes & heart disease. Sorry, i work in a hospital… and that is what you see in every hospital. But what do i know… i like a McFlurry every now and then.
Tradercaddy, that’s just funny as shit…..sell 6 to the shriners….thats fucking perfect…..I can actually see that……
the sad things is, the cost of the vehicle (or clown mover, whatever it is) will be probably be around 6,000.00 to 8,000.00 dollars….. you can buy a fucking new ClubCar golf cart for 6,500.00, what kind of fucking nerd would buy this clown mobile?
fuck not me.
This is just gorgeous.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/gmac-xoxo-sub-prime-car-loans/
Growing up in the car business the mantra was is and will always be LIE, CHEAT, and STEAL. I want off the grid
Artist- How about a seniors living facility or community?
They can put those big flags with the daisy on their own egg car so they don’t lose it in the parking lot.
Or how about NASCAR having egg vehicle races?
Or how about putting bumpers on those things and having egg vehicle bumper crashes at the amusement parks?
I suspect the cops in cities like Berkley,Madison,Portland, etc. will use them to replace their current cars.
@Stucktrader: I’d rather leave the hundreds of billions spent on defense each year intact and take the TRILLIONS we’ve dumped into US and foreign banks and CEO’s and instead use that money to fight poverty.
What good’s healthy food going to do anyone when we’ve got missiles raining on us from NK, Cuba, or anywhere else? When we get flyovers from 6th gen stealth planes from Russia or China? There’s a lot of govt waste, but defense should be WAY down on the list of fat to cut FIRST. Talking my book, but after I get laid off from defense cuts and go to work at McDonalds, I’ll still stand by the sentiment.
Fly:
I nearly fell out of my chair when Cramer rec’d SPIL last night.
Does he read Senor Tropicana too? You were there LAST week.
ot somewhat
Fly – light reading ‘Zeckendorf’ – NYC RE relateed – some interesting insights
Why do I have the feeling that the majority of you on this blog are going to spend eternity in a firery pit counting stacks of bills and then watching them burn up into ash after you finish each million….I mean trillion. What a sad, pathetic state of being to be trapped in forever! FOR EV ER!! Do you think the Fly will do Fly Buys to check on all of his burning piles of money while he spits on your disgusting pile of flesh? Also, while you are making ungodly amounts of soon to be worthless coin, do yourselves a favor and go buy a soul and possibly a church or two to beg forgiveness?
What an odd post by the strange man named Michael.
Henry-
Ya think this guy just needed some $ to buy some of the eggs GM is coming out with?
Recent Trades of Shutterfly Inc. by Directors and Officers:
Sell: 10% Owner James H Clark sold 68,600 shares of SFLY stock on 04/03/2009 at the average price of $9.72; the price of the stock has increased by 2.37% since.
Sell: 10% Owner James H Clark sold 83,906 more shares of SFLY stock on 03/31/2009 at the average price of $9.38; the price of the stock has increased by 6.08% since.
Sell: 10% Owner James H Clark sold 94,882 more shares of SFLY stock on 03/26/2009 at the average price of $9.03; the price of the stock has increased by 10.19% since.
Sell: 10% Owner James H Clark sold 46,500 more shares of SFLY stock on 03/24/2009 at the average price of $8.52; the price of the stock has increased by 16.78% since.
Sell: 10% Owner James H Clark sold 27,772 more shares of SFLY stock on 03/20/2009 at the average price of $8.52; the price of the stock has increased by 16.78% since.
SRS fighting back but should i sell at 3pm and buy back for 3 points less when the gubmint have finished pumping IYR?
Seriously…does no one else think Good Ol’ Roy’s Andy Griffith like corpone schtick is getting just a little over the top? Sheesh.
Chartchompers one and all…where do you see downtrend resistance on the s&p? TIA.
Michael,
So what are you holding… SRS? FAZ? MVIS?
The banks must be screaming buys here with all of the power they have going today. Just printing money.
Yea, a bunch of the banks just jumped what just happened?
Michael
I’m empathetic to Michael. I think a lot of you fuckers are going to burn in hell with the Dog watching over you, while me, I’m going to make through those pearly gates because I bought Dollar Yen and Aussie yen. Any of you fuckers who didn’t go long these two deserve hell. That’s what Mick is talking about and of course none of you can read between the lines.
Way Long SRS and FAZ until the United States of America knows both poverty and defeat. Bush set the stage with a beautiful performance for the masters of the universe (Obama being a pretty eloquent talking head side show) to remake the world. Keep your eyes open for the unrest ahead!
What are all the dip buyers doing buying the banks here? Is the stress test about to be completed?
Good news for the bears that the oils are getting kicked down.
j,
Go to bed fucker….or are you going to stay up thru AA earnings?
To Gapping, I’m loving your sacasm and irony but Geithners plan could just be the final piece in the puzzle to get banks off the hook without hitting bondholders. I’m suspending disbelief on the banks, they could go much higher from here, just for the hell of it.
TXT makin another run! caught it once today
What’s with ICE +6% on no news. Pali rated “sell” on 4/2, GS added to Conv buy list. up 15% in 3 days????
Mick
Think of us as the money changers hanging around the temple when Jesus went up and started to whip them. We’re those guys.
Keep your eyes open for the unrest ahead!
Do you own a gun and if so were you background checked?
Mrckbill
I may stay up for the AA meeting seeing I bought 10,000 of those little puppies earlier. I can’t stand the suspense.
More bullish news!
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSTRE5363EV20090407
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5363ZM20090407?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-04-05-scrip_N.htm
Those are good for at least 300 points of upside I would think.
A def chick magnet…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/04/07/gm-and-segways-p-u-m-a-unveiled-and-no-this-isnt-a-joke/
“I am not naive to believe the market is going to dump out here, and dive to new lows. But, at a minimum, we are overdue a correction to the tune of 10%.”
Indeud~!~!
Thought you would enjoy this Fly.
http://digg.com/d1o5gV
gapping-
Nice find on the articles. That news may be shrugged off by the market in the near term, but the hammer will drop sooner or later
The market is boring when there is shit for volume.
Monday, April 6, 2009
The Government’s Hand Forced
Geithner and company, having apparently gathered a sufficient amount of data to determine which of the nation’s nineteen largest Banks are adequately capitalized, will reportedly convene this week in order to devise a plan of action. The new accounting rules, conveniently implemented just prior to this “meeting of the minds”, will be taken into consideration during this decision making process. Given the crucial nature of these tests, along with the Catch-22 that the Government has created for itself, we expect Treasury to take some form of decisive action in the next two weeks.
For starters, we are told that Treasury has all intentions of keeping the results of the stress tests shrouded in secrecy, and away from the judgmental eyes of the Market. Realistically however, the sieve-like tendencies that pervade every level of Government will impair Mr. Geithner’s ability to maintain 100% secrecy. The game then, is for Treasury to act upon the results before any Government Insider decides to feed his sense of self-importance by whispering into the ear of a journalist.
Given that the above assumption is correct, we would additionally propose that it is nearly impossible that all nineteen banks managed to “pass” the tests. Furthermore, it is highly probable that at least a few Institutions will be viewed by the stress tests as beyond the point of repair. This being the case, Treasury will be forced to move in and either nationalize or dismantle the most crippled bank(s). Now, due to the anti-nationalization rhetoric that has emanated from Washington, this new rescue effort will likely embody the full spirit of nationalization, while assigning some sort of euphemistic moniker to the action.
In any event, the conclusion of the stress tests has effectively forced the Government’s hand. Every day that passes without action will only serve to fuel speculation as to the identity of the “weak links in the chain”. This is our humble view.
I say that the GM-Segway egg car become the official iBankCoin mode of transportation.
Did ya see the Puma that is one awsome govt made vehichle
Isn’t the up-tick announcement tomorrow?
Micheal,
In hell you have to watch endless CNBC.
Do you think it is a bottom? where’s the bottom? is this the bottom? was that the real bottom, the other bottom, another bottom? I think just saw a bottom – that sure was a green mustard shoot seed!
Oh wait, did I already die?
Buy one or face execution, china style
Just testing [[FAZ]]
with every passing quarter the y-o-y comparisons will become better (or should i say “less worse”), stocks go up. Maybe not in direct line but big buy was at 666 when everyone was pissing their beds. We may test it but we may not also…
Cramer favorite RIMM getting ass raped, I love it
“Michael” is the alien who now possesses Lady G
FUCKING SHIT FUCK FUCK!!! God I hate missed opportunities. I shorted RIMM yesterday like I posted at 63 and my fucking stop got taken out later in the day now look at that fucking shitbag implode. FUCK!
Oh well I guess I could be bitching about a fucking loss.
By the way Manhattan Office Rent shit the bed in the first quater, CRE anyone?
Henry-
Ya think this guy just needed some $ to buy some of the eggs GM is coming out with?
He raised a few million it’s in line withe his 2008 sales of stock hea has a track record of selling his stock regularly. No biggie.
SFLY has the goods to get back to $15
check KEME price vs. its book value…just got 2 year credit facility.
could ramp.
Assuming they restore the uptick rule, anyone have an idea how it would influence the inverse etf’s? No change? Maybe reduce their beta? Make them more/less desirable? Just curious.
Leech if passed(it will be) would reduce beta, volatility, and slow the pace at which gains would multiply – imo. its a negative for inverse etf’s imo.
Will the egg thing be available by Easter?
Will the egg car be available for Easter? I might get one for her indoors.
Will the egg thing be available before easter?
Uptick rule won’t be decided this week. They need to solicit public opinion. What they’re discussing tomorrow are just proposals. Nothing will happen tomorrow I gather.
C-N-G, that’s in line with what I was thinking but, if individual securities become harder to trade, people may migrate to the etfs, countering the first action.
53 minutes till Fuckery, as you were
If you put a gun to my head and said “divine the future, or else!”…
I’d put forth that there’s a gap fill at about 81.30 on the SPY that will signal a reversal.
___________
Gapping: Obama decided its the taxpayers responsibility to guarantee GMs warranties.
It’s very bullish for stocks now that you know your muffler is insured.
i am thinking of starting a loan shark business..its the new street version of credit cards..Hey fucklip i lent you $100 bucks yesterday- you owe me $500 tomorrow..fuck you.
definitely, you have all the necessary ingridients – cash and guns
Egg car, meet Mr. Wobbly Man:
http://large.snazal.com/?0007223560
Yeah, I have kids.