THE WOODSHEDDER BOTTOM

Here is an email that was sent to me from Mr. Woodshedder:

Woodshedder to me

show details 12:23 PM (20 hours ago)

Reply

fuck man. I am really scared about the market, man. I just packed up all my dry goods and took my guns to an old mountain village that I owns me a house at. I tooks alls my moneys out of the banks and dug a ditch under house and put it there. My best guess, looking at these here charts, the markets will crash tomorrow.

Back to packing up these here dry goods, lol.

Wood

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My response:

The Fly to Woodshedder

show details 12:25 PM (20 hours ago)

Reply

STFU

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Calm down people; it’s only the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. If today taught you anything, our government has no idea how to arrest the ongoing financial collapse. Public support has been eroded to the point where plumbers want to murder investment bankers, rightfully so.

All of my investment bank friends, who were making 2mill per annum a few years back, are dutifully unemployed now, with banks leaning on them and tow trucks repossessing their fancy cars, rightfully so.

As for me, I am one of the very select few who have benefited from this crisis, through various time machine trips, possessed by an overall sense of extreme pessimism. I feed off the hate. My business, despite not really giving a fuck, has flourished to the point where I reject new money, as if it was tainted with polio.

As for this tape:

It’s possible we will retest the lows. However, I get the sense there are too many people leaning short here. I rather stay long China, via FXI, CHL, JRJC and WX, with large and sizable short positions in big oil, via ERY and DUG.

Just a quick reminder: XOM is $30 rich.

Despite today’s meltdown, I only lost 3%, thanks in large part to my oil shorts (25% of assets) and 25% cash position. God willing, I will regain that 3% and more tomorrow. Also, for the most part, I am still up on all of my longs.

Longer term the country is in bad shape. I am hearing there will be a crisis in retail, in fairly short order. I will be taking on some new retail shorts, within a week.

Either way you slice it, the best shorts of 2009 will be found in commercial RE and oil. Stocks like ESS, MAC, KIM, SLG, BXP, FRT, XOM, CVX, NOV, CHK and RIG have significant downside left.

In other news, the fucking bastards from McGraw Hill dropped Barry Ritholtz’s book: Bailout Nation. Being the parent company of S&P, I am not surprised by their unprofessional conduct.

UPDATE: Barry opines on his ordeal with the fuckers from McGraw Hill.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erIs98Z5dn0&feature=related 450 300]

What a tool this guy (Geithner) is. Fuck it, I called it wrong. I did not think the market would cascade “on the news.” It was too anticipated and so cliche.

Anyway, we are in very dangerous territory now, with the S&P below 830. I am sure the chartists on iBC will confirm my fears of a possible total collapse.

So what the fuck am I doing long stocks?

I don’t really know.

Let’s take a looksy at my longs-

CHL -3.57%
YZC -7.26%
FXI -4.92%
MT -11.65%
BUCY -6.96%
ACM -flat
JRJC +4.47%
LNN -5.61%

On the short side, the only meaningful positions (25% of assets) worth mentioning are DUG +8.27% and ERY +13.08%.

All in all, it was a pretty horrid day; but it could have been worse. For one, I could have been “all in” long. Additionally, I have more than 25% in cash.

So, despite wanting to punch the fucking chest hairs off Geithner and all of the transvestites on CNBC, I will live to fight another day.

On a serious note: this country is rudderless. Obama is a joke and the democratic leadership are so green and so not ready for the limelight, it’s fucking embarrassing.

Tomorrow is another day.

Off to drink myself stupid.

UPDATE: The most frustrating aspect of not banking coin during today’s sell off is missing out on having the moral authority to make fun of Cramer and his stupid bullish thesis, or Kudlow and his fucking mustards seeds, or Leisman and Cabruso “fucking” Cabrera and their idiotic bullish pandering. Plus, I know it would have been cool to make fun of “Chivas” and other career bulls on iBankCoin.

Fuck!

Sure, all of you little bastards are shooting at “The Fly” today, despite not having the luxury of being short this decline. It’s easy to just sit there, all unemployed and shit, like the little punk that you are, talking shit from the discomfort of the third class lifestyle that you are so accustomed to.

Unlike many of you idiots, I am not a day trader. I am more of a swing trader, looking for 5-20 day moves, while exhibiting the utmost patience and discipline when investing. Understand the difference between you and I and never forget it.

I move in big convoys, heavily guarded, armed to the teeth, while you walk. Comparing “The Fly” to your own trading is sort of like comparing Barry Bonds’ head, pre and post steroids.

Boo-Hoo, I am losing money today. Hey pal, go fuck yourself. This isn’t the first and it won’t be the last time losing some coin in the market. The point of what I do here: when the dust settles and the clouds of cocaine subside, I win.

My victories are grande [sic], some might call them decadent. However, when they occur, you will know why they call me HORATIO CLAWHAMMER.

Into the close, I will add to my DUG positions and leave all longs intact.

NOTE: The PPT is registering its lowest ranking ever, at 2.19. The only silver lining: each time it hit the 2.20’s the market bottomed, temporarily at least. Do or die here, else we get “Tim’d” again.

UPDATE: I bought 3,000 ERY @ $34.85.

Once again, the motherfuckers from the Fed and Treasury are clown raping the market. To make matters worse, I have a net long book now, into the teeth of a steroid induced collapse.

All of our leaders are ball-less. One way or another, the market will be worth less than a package of napkins, inside of 6 months.

BEHOLD: I have long positions.

Once again, in true circus master form, I might be forced to trim down some of my longs and add to shorts.

Why?

Well, for one, it makes little sense to ride these bastards down. And two, I need to lower the volume on the volatility.

The market is always out to kill me. If I were to get all emo and shit, holding positions just because I thought they were cool, I would have been wiped out a long time ago. Without a doubt, the time to sell short KIM, MAC, ESS, FRT and SLG was yesterday. By chasing them lower now, after the fact, would be utterly fucktarded and plain ol’ vanilla gay.

My goal here is to not get net short and make a gazillion bucks. Instead, I will calm the fuck down, raise some cash, hedge up a little, then go eat a few sandwiches.

After all, every time we get these sharp moves lower, miraculously, the market seems to go up, shortly thereafter.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m7fyGQ_DpQ 450 300]

I’m not selling because I am already crazy. If I had a modicum of sanity about me, I would have went to cash, prior to the Geithner “fuck you, you’re dead” speech.

His speech was a whole lot of nothing. Again, the Obama administration reminds me of small children manning a fake boat, with silly hats on.

Lucky for me, I still own large amounts of DUG/ERY, mainly because I hate oil and the people who drill for it. But, on the other hand, I am getting my eyebrows punched off in MT, FXI, CHL, BUCY and YZC, just to name a few.

Just to recap my market experience:

Never trust people who are bullish on stocks, for they are mentally impaired. Whenever you think the market will break out, run away from stocks. And, by all means, always assume the Government will fuck you in the end.

FAZ and SRS are ripping higher here. I suppose it makes sense to own these two little fuckers, considering the market is giving longs the black death. But, once again, I can’t keep switching long to short, short to long. It really is driving me crazy.

For now, I will take my lumps for being long, during a depression. And, if anything, add to my oil shorts.

Last weekend I had dinner at my favorite Chinese restaurant in the world. It’s not a fancy place. As a matter of fact, it’s a hole in the wall dump. It’s an open kitchen with like 15 line cooks, all going crazy on one giant stove, with 3 foot flames coming from the grill and people spraying the floors with cold water, just to keep the kitchen clean—at all times. It looks as if those fuckers are cooking on top of some sort of psychopath fire breathing dragon. Plus, aside from all that, the head Chef aka “slave runner” keeps me entertained with his microphone antics, constantly yelling at his cooks.

I speak of this wonderful place to distract you from the markets, for it is trying to trick you into doing something stupid. I will not elaborate, as to what I actually mean by all this. However, just know, “The Fly” speaks the truth all the time, even when he appears to be lying blatantly.

Speaking of which, Geithner is going to fuck us all, isn’t he?

On a very personal level, I’m into buying stocks again, until I get burned or maimed. I like JRJC, ACM, LNN, BUCY and even FXI. Fuck, I even like GE here for a trade. I done lost my mind!

See folks, “The Fly” is all about assisting those who are in wheeled chairs into idle manholes or elevator shafts. If I could, I’d assist them into air ducts or sewer pipes too. However, I am far too busy, banking coin, blogging like the wind on this here internets, than to fuck around stuffing people into idle air ducts and shit.

Besides, there is much work to be done on iBankCoin. Some of you wake up in the morning and look forward to slapping your co workers in the face with a hot mop. I, on the other hand, am burdened with the gift of making ridiculously accurate market calls, then transmitting such said ideas to third parties.

The burden is too great.

I insist, focus less on the intraday trades and more on what the market will do over a 5 day span. You shall and will thank me later, for this sage and wisdom filled advice.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5u553a_zLAE&feature=subscription 450 300]

Go fuck yourselves.

None of you other bloggers can hold a candle to me. Your grammar is weak and your swagger is lame. If given the chance, I’d have a jelly doughnut punched into your mustache. You spend all day, fixing up your bullshit charts, while combing through a thesaurus, all for nothing. No one visits your bullshit blog, mainly because you are irrelevant and bring nothing to the table.

Sure, you’re a great guy. Your fucking neighbors say “hi”, whenever you go for a walk. I got news for you buddy: you’re an asshole with small knuckles and a big mouth.

I view life as one big explosion waiting to happen. When I die, it’s Nagasaki for me, regardless of how many beta blockers I guzzle down, trying to live forever.

Top pick: short you.