iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,434 Blog Posts

You Do the Math

196-173= 23 reasons to shut the fuck up.

UPDATE: Okay, I am finally able to sit down, chill the fuck out, and blog like the wind. There are too many bearshitters on this blog. You all need to pack up your fucking bags and head on over to lesser quality, conspiracy theory blogs. Or, you can just fuck around in the Peanut Gallery, reading the missives from Josh or other fucktards of this cloth.

Rates are supposed to go higher. Instead of thinking: “OMG, this is it. The USA is going out of business.” You should chuckle, in a dark oak paneled room, thinking “how can I profit from this?”

As the epic bubble in treasuries unwinds, effectively crushing the idiots who stayed in that trade, financial operators will bid up commodities. I do not need, nor seek, your approval. You are nothing to me, equal to bubble gum machines inside of grocery stores: readily ignored. Circle jerk all you want, but I am in this game to bank coin—not to run for public office—like some sort of misfitted assclown.

I want you to be honest with yourself, as I was honest with myself 8 weeks ago, after missing out on the second leg of the market bottom (I did indeed catch the bottom, fuckface, check my trades).

You are bearish in the sun and also in the shade. You are bearish drinking scotch and also lemonade. You are bearish all the time; for so many reasons, I cannot make them rhyme. It is the pinnacle of being a market rookie, when you get your face bit off, everyday— by a monster— as if it (your fucking face) was made from a big fat cookie.

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105 comments

  1. Anton Cigur

    I got 99 problems but “The Fly” ain’t one.

    By which of course I mean, “Thank you for checking in, good Sir.
    We were worried you had been detained by the SEC or ATF.”

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  2. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Honestly if rates keep rising Fly everything is fucked. I know your long here and I will be the first to say you have knocked the cover off the ball lately but even you have to acknowledge that treasuries could destroy this market in 30 more ticks. You get a 400 ten and you will be looking at a 7 handle on the ES. Yeah it may not happen but right now its a gamble I don’t think should be taken, I can only be zero beta long here.

    Where were you today anyway?

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  3. Woodshedder

    246 is 10 more than 236.

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  4. The Fly

    rising rates is an inevitability. Nothing to see here.

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  5. Anton Cigur

    Interesting article: “Who replaces GM on the Dow?”
    http://tinyurl.com/qk7mav

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  6. Michael Bolton
    Michael Bolton

    “Everyone in this company can eat my ass!”

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  7. The_Real_Hmmm

    It’s the Dow netted over yesterday and today, as in +23 pts. US tech companies are still strong overseas.

    BTW, I looked at the latest cap/utilization numbers and utilities are still going strong. Also checked out electricity usage and DC is keeping their lights on all night it seems writing new policies. POM is an interesting play for that, apart from the other ones that still are paying dividends and serving non-upside down budget areas.

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  8. ZMoose12

    Hmmm… You trying to tell us your still bullish?

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  9. Donny

    Priced in my ass … just stop the fuckin’ bullshit, would-yous!

    There’s been more bullshit written in this venue the last few weeks. Fuckers talking about this debacle being currently priced in to the fucking market. Don’t believe any horse shit like that. The stock market isn’t a gawd-damn forward looking indicator, it’s a neutered, decapitated, fucking, horses ass. I could provide a gawd-damn mile long list of all the fucking issues with the world economy. But I’ll sum it up with this; the world economy has lost roughly 30% of its value, and it’s gonna lose at least another 20% before this is over. And all this shit ain’t fucking priced in either.

    Half of you fuckers were all giddy yesterday after the market posted a nice 190 point gain … yet look at what happened today … back down we go. Why fuck around with this bullshit stock market … it’ll rip your gawd-damn balls off. Do you fuckers remember the Dennis Kneale Top? That mother fucker pounding his chest as the stock market raced to all-time highs, completely ignoring the freight train that was about to t-bone the entire economy. Was that shit priced in? Hell No!

    Don’t even get me going about real estate … you fuckers have no idea what is about to happen in some of Southern California’s most desirable, and vastly over leveraged, communities. There’s a fucking ticking time bomb about to go off in Palos Verdes, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Rancho Santa Fe, and fucking La Jolla, etc, etc, etc. And yet some of you fuckers want to declare this shit is over … please, please, please, go sell stupid somewhere else.

    California is going to hell … prepare for new lows in the stock market … probably by early to mid summer.

    And this brings me to my final point … Dow down 173 points … was that shit priced in?

    BTW, Fuck Off!

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  10. Fake Cap

    Ready for a bet Fly? I bet the DOW will trade lower by the end of June. You take the other side of it.

    Let’s see who gets to suck their own cock and their neighbour’s too.

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  11. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    rising rates is are an inevitability. Nothing to see here.

    Of course they will rise but overtime not all at once and not when we are in a time where the Fed is trying to keep rates low in order to prevent additional meltdowns in the housing market. This will put a lid on the refi’s and new home sales will start to suffer. Let’s not overlook re-defaults too. I am just saying this is not insignificant at all and appears to be getting worse as funds start shorting the long end.

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  12. OK, OK, I clicked good karma for Donny and it upticed 4 times – the thing is broken – I knew it. Donny is DD’s cousin in Callyfornicatia.

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  13. Awake

    Fly, are you liking the TBT bandwagon for the long play?

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  14. Donny is a Fly Wanna-be
    Donny is a Fly Wanna-be

    Donny, you suck. There is nothing original about you. Your entire net-persona is a poor mans version of the fly. If he were a giddy school girl, you would post like a 13 year old school girl, signing everything with XX’s and O’s and using the word like 10x’s per sentence.

    In closing, you suck.

    XXOO

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  15. JakeGint

    My main MON had a very rough day, but is it something to be terribly concerned about?

    Not if you’re in for the long term and the incredibly valuable IP that makes MON a Jacksonian Core pick:

    What’s up MON? It’s not the Weeds, it’s the Seeds!

    ____________

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  16. omfgitsjd

    This is how the fractional reserve system works against a typical guy trying to bank some coin.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m42R6n06evc

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  17. Everybody buy TBT in the morning and Bernie Nanke will buy treasurys – Hell, they only have a 100 bill of treaurys to sell this week – A TENTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS IN ONE FREAKIN WEEK!

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  18. JakeGint

    OK, OK, I clicked good karma for Donny and it upticed 4 times – the thing is broken – I knew it. Donny is DD’s cousin in Callyfornicatia.

    That happens when other people click before you, and you haven’t refreshed the page. Took me a while to figure out it was not a glitch.

    _______

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  19. Indie

    anon .. that’s so last week.. or even last month..

    haven’t you heard? Obama said it.. http://www.drudgereport.com/flashocs.htm

    they’re outtta money y’all.

    the TBT train has left the station (the 44-48 range). don’t be a sourpuss because you missed it.

    choo-choo!!!

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  20. The Fly

    Donny

    At first, I was going yo just rip you a knew one, but that would be like picking on a cerebal palsey. You had your chance and lost. You went short and got your fucking balls baked off and now you’re just bitter–very uncool.

    What you have read here, on this godly site, over the past few weeks can only be categorized as magicianesque.

    See pal, on this site, we don’t stick to a fucking dogma. We bank coin.

    Might I suggest that you move over to a TIM site?

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  21. A 100 bill per week is 5 trillion per year if the pace were kept up. Obama has it all under control. I remember Bill Clinton sent Madeline Albright over to exchange toasts with Kimmy Jong so obviously she fixed everything and the current fuss is all a big mistake of some kind.

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  22. JakeGint

    Oy, “a TIM site.”

    That’s the California equivalent to “the Inland Empire.”

    brutal.

    _______

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  23. Joe Schmo

    Why mess with TBT when you can lever up a little more with TMV or TYO. You’re welcome!

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  24. DEVILDOG

    Fly, you have a very selective memory. You totally missed the beginning of the rally off the 3/6 lows. In fact, you were shorting into it for at least 2 to 3 weeks before you went long. Now you’re doing the same thing at the top of this move staying long at the top. Buy some more longs in the morning. I dare you. Don’t forget to post them. BTW, please stop posting stupid as shit comments about high interest rates not being an issue. That’s just stupid. Grow up.

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  25. blues

    Devildog, you are right, today, Bond market showed middle finger to Bermonkey. And YA, I SAID, FU** YOU BERMONKEY, GEITHNER AND OBAMA! All fu** heads!

    Fly, becareful, YOU DO THE MATH, AMERICA IS FUCKED! US of A is going to get it both holes this time. Hyperinflation and high interest rate! FUCK AMERICA Government and fuck all these morons at DC! we are all fucked!

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  26. Ronny

    Who are all these ppl giving Donny positive karma? Trust me, Donny’s roots are firmly planted in a trailer park.

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  27. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Look I want to make money on the short side or enter long lower too, call it the evil in me. But by no means do any of you fuckers have a leg to stand on talking shit on Fly. He has schooled you fuckers left and right like a fucking marching band on a crusade to the motherland. Frankly I am embarrassed at the shit that is talked here everyday by people that are perpetual losers of coin. You homos empty your cup of coin each day into the cauldron of Fly then pretend that you somehow have endless lives like a video game. This ain’t no video game, its a magic show where things disappear in front of your eyes and end up in the pockets of magicians. Just stop the bullshit already.

    That said, I think treasuries will soon pull out a knife and go Al Queda on the market’s neck.

    Joe Schmo: We had this discussion yesterday, Jake made fun of me due to the thinness of the levered treasury names.

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  28. Donny and dogma? Nope

    More like Jeckle and Hyde.

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  29. Damon

    The Fly’s tip on SIFY was good for over a 100% return in a week. Even my cat made money on that one!

    Maybe some of you newer followers on this blog should just read for awhile.

    Before you make complete f-cking asses of yourselves, and lose credibility forever, that is.

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  30. Eric

    I hope that “Zerohedge” is, in fact, actually hedged. One has to imagine that his personal account has been levered short this whole rally.

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  31. alphadawgg

    The fixed income and forex markets are multiple times the size of the stock market. At this point, stocks are the side-show at the carnival. Who’s fooling who?

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  32. Ronny

    goin into the 4th quarter, time for an eddie van halen solo. eh donny?

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  33. Jason

    Pull up a historical chart of the 10-years…rates are STILL at very very low levels historically-speaking. You wouldn’t know it from all the panic in the air though…but as usual the BEARS are grasping at straws. The measly 3.7% rate we see now on the 10-yrs is where we were trading….wait for it….a whopping 6 MONTHS AGO!!! OMG the end is neigh!!!!

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  34. CAP

    JakeGint Says:

    Oy, “a TIM site.”

    That’s the California equivalent to “the Inland Empire.”

    brutal.

    LMAO. That made my day Jake.

    @DONNY There’s a fucking ticking time bomb about to go off in Palos Verdes, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Rancho Santa Fe, and fucking La Jolla, etc, etc, etc.

    Oh just the thought of real estate crashing in those cities makes me salivate. Throw in Beverly Hills and Bel Air for good measure. I was doing a property search of SoCal a few days back and it turns out there are like 1200 properties priced $5 million and above currently for sale there. 1200 fucking residential properties over $5 million. Thats unfuckingbelievable. I mean to afford a fucking $5 million house you gotta be earnings like around $1.5 mil a yr. And excluding bonuses and shit. You gotta be able to make that kind of money consistently. Not just being a high flying RE agent or mortgage broker with one great yr. How many people make that money yr after year consistently ?. Probably not too many yet you have 1200 $5 mil homes on the market. Fuck that shit. Shits going down muthafuckers.

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  35. CAP

    Ronny Says:

    Who are all these ppl giving Donny positive karma?

    DONNY outsources his positive karma to India.

    “Alooo how can i haylp you sirr ?’
    “I want 20 positive karma’s”
    “Dat vill be too nainty naine sir”
    “ok:”

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  36. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Jason: Historical rates have nothing to do with it. That’s like saying why are people having trouble paying their mortgages since rates used to be 18% and now they are 7%. I won’t go further into it since its not worth discussing with you and thus will give you a pass.

    Chivas you see 2s10s at 277+ now with more long end supply coming tomorrow?

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  37. Jamie Lee Curtis
    Jamie Lee Curtis

    Everyone needs to eat a couple Activias and chill out. Bunch of constipated 47.5 year olds!

    PS – I’m still hot as fire!

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  38. Donny

    DONNY outsources his positive karma to India.

    +1

    BTW, The Alt-A time bomb has officially arrived on the shores of Southern California. I’ve got friends in high places who have confirmed what I know is about to happen. This time, government sponsored smoke and mirrors, ain’t gonna work. Stress test … lol! That’s funny.

    Prepare for new lows!

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  39. Jason

    ////gappingandyapping Says:

    Jason: Historical rates have nothing to do with it. That’s like saying why are people having trouble paying their mortgages since rates used to be 18% and now they are 7%. I won’t go further into it since its not worth discussing with you and thus will give you a pass.////

    People are having trouble paying their mortgages because they bought TOO MUCH GODDAMN HOUSE in the first place, not because rates were ever too high. Total fallacy that only morons like you, Obama, Bernanke, and Geithner believe. Hell, all the idiots who refi’d under these government programs are redefaulting at a 75% clip…what does that tell you??? Now go fuck yourself bitch, how about I give YOU the “pass” for being a shit-stain imbecile.

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  40. Ronny

    “Donny Says:

    DONNY outsources his positive karma to India.

    +1”

    damn right, douche

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  41. j

    Cap

    That’s $6 billion worth of real estate. Dude, not to put to fine a point on it but Monsanto’s market cap fell by that amount just yesterday and the world is not ending. So the sellers lose another 20% of value, so freaking what?

    If Asia holds up and the credit markets continue to fine stocks will be okish… perhaps boring but okish.

    And I don’t hold any meaningful position at the moment by the way except in currencies.

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  42. Ronny

    ‘Donny Says:

    DONNY outsources his positive karma to India.

    +1’

    damn right, douche

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  43. Anonymous

    Well said Jason. You could give these guys a 0% interest rate and they’d still default…its because from the start their incomes were never sufficient for the types of homes they were out buying for no money down. But neither they nor the bank cared at the time cause they could always refi when their home appreciated and bank coin. Unfortunately, we’re 2 years into this mess and people still don’t grasp this simple concept.

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  44. j

    You guys are bi-polar. A coupla months ago you were all waxing lyrical that the bond market rising was telling us that we were in a deflationary vortex and that stocks were going to shit a brick as a result. Now that yields are cranking up as a result of increased supply and a better outlook you’re all panicked.

    Grow the fuck up and try to be a little more consistent instead of trying to fit every story to support your thesis.

    Bond yields backing up is nothing to worry about in terms of the stock market going forward.

    Will it effect the real estate markets… No! Prices have fallen around 40% so the principal has been cut in 1/2 while the interest rate cost is still lower than it was before the storm. So the back up in yields is bullshit. For the 92% of people that have a job buying a house now has been cheaper in ages.

    Notice also that the dollar is coming back so if the buck doesn’t weaken the yield back up is a furphy.

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  45. RC

    Epic comment by Gap,

    “You homos empty your cup of coin each day into the cauldron of Fly then pretend that you somehow have endless lives like a video game. This ain’t no video game, its a magic show where things disappear in front of your eyes and end up in the pockets of magicians. Just stop the bullshit already.”

    another one by Damon,

    “The Fly’s tip on SIFY was good for over a 100% return in a week. Even my cat made money on that one!”

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  46. buycurious

    Think you are wrong on the state of the market Fly, but fantastic call on RFMD. You saw that sucker coming from a mile away. Now if it can retrace a bit, I’ll get me some of that sugar. Don’t want to chase it in this market.

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  47. Ronny

    ~laughing my fucking ass off~

    these posts have nothing to do with market sentiment. trading is easy. i can scalp 5k a day, neither bullish or bearish, EVER. idiots who post about an imminent ‘crash’ or ‘breakout’ are just fucking ignorant. donny, are u mr. mortgage? so cal is nice to visit 2 or 3 times a year. alt-a, alt-b, alt-samurai? eh, i’ll make money. if doomsday comes, it wont matter either way. will it, child?

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  48. The Fly

    I don’t care what any of you think. I march to my own drums.

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  49. j

    Cubs….. little cubs…

    The cost of money is now below zero after inflation. The deficit is spewing out really serious stimulus. The deficit, despite concerns won’t be a huge problem in terms of financing for the next two years.

    And monetary stimulus is enormous.

    look at the UK’s Sterling. It’s now higher than it was before the credit warning outlook by S&P.

    IS the macro side showing any tension?

    Well the Yen is weaker and the Euro Yen is heading higher and the buck is actually stronger. All the markers are not pointing to any serious credit tension.

    Teddy bears need to be very careful here or you can seriously end up losing limbs and testicles.

    In fact the Cal story is actually fucking tops. The Initiatieve failed and the fuckers there have to start cutting expenses and promoting mass sackings of lazy slothful government workers. A truly great thing if there ever was one. Cal has showed once again that people have common sense given the opportunity and won’t allow spending to get out of control.

    It means the Steroid doped, lying Austrian governor may actually stop worrying about global warming in 2200 and begin cutting spending.

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  50. The Fly

    It is a trade unwinding. The US is not defaulting. You need to watch the fucking factories and not some daily bond trade.

    Morons.

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  51. The Fly

    And by the way, I am not suggesting inflation is good for the economy. However, it is a whole lot better than deflation. This is exactly what the Fed wanted to happen.

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  52. j0sh1ngU

    all i know FLY is i make money tomorrow. We are opening lower. Whether we break my trendlines I do not know. My stops will take me out. Best of luck

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  53. Mushroomz

    “You are bearish in the sun and also in the shade. You are bearish drinking scotch and also lemonade. You are bearish all the time; for so many reasons, I cannot make them rhyme. It is the pinnacle of being a market rookie, when you get your face bit off, everyday— by monster— as if it (your fucking face) was made from a big fat cookie.”

    I just literally ROFLed

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  54. GoLakers

    Fly is right. Money coming out of treasuries/dollars and into commodities. Simple as that. Don’t read too much into it.

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  55. josh's subconcious
    josh's subconcious

    trendlines, TRENDLINES. i have to stop bullshitting myself. think im really fucking stupid.

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  56. j

    Seriously, I can’t believe you fuckers. The credit and stock markets are doing well in terms od issuance. There’s record bond issuance in Euro-trashland at the moment. Fuckers like BAC just picked up $26 billion in a series of stock issues (not counting the rest) the Euros are about to have banks issue stock too..

    These are all signs of a thawing in the cap markets..

    Add to that enormous stimulus with interest rates below zero and huge government mandated spending and some of you fuckers are think there will be a stock market crash.

    What the fuck are you people injecting?

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  57. chivasontherocks
    chivasontherocks

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBdBCTvK5zM

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  58. Gilactive

    “You are bearish in the sun and also in the shade. You are bearish drinking scotch and also lemonade. You are bearish all the time; for so many reasons, I cannot make them rhyme. It is the pinnacle of being a market rookie, when you get your face bit off, everyday— by monster— as if it (your fucking face) was made from a big fat cookie.”

    That poetry speaks to me Fly, LOL! I have been reading this site for a while and I am hooked on this entertainment while getting useful fucking info. Do your thing man.

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  59. Galileo

    All of you stupid motherfuckers ignore the highest, most lorldy of all data inputs to help determine the future of what is yet to be. I’ve posted it here before, yet it goes ignored. The annual Bilderberg meeting took place just last week.

    Did any of you stupid motherfuckers bother to read what news leaks came out of that meeting? Why would you? You’re too stupid to know that these news leaks are highly predictive. Fly has you people pegged — stooooooopid.

    And even if you do know that, you still won’t bother to read it because you’re too undisciplined to loosen your fragile eggshell ego enough to see beyond your own nose.

    I’m not a bear or a bull. I just make coin, like the Fly. And information is still information.

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  60. j0sh1ngU

    I was bullish 3/6. And then after the run up I began looking for prudent entries. Shorted some covered @780 went long to 850 and swapped to down to 810 went long up to 850 and then short. then the market started to whip saw

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  61. The Fly

    J

    They are SLAVES to their charts. They do not know anything about thawing. All they know is the headlines from 6 months ago and they think the old news is going to recycle, making their charts do cartwheels down rickety staircases.

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  62. BRAVEFLAPS

    “You need to watch the fucking factories and not some daily bond trade.”

    Unless those factories are owned by GM.

    Or is it the UAW?

    Whatever –

    PURPLE DRANK MUTHAFUCKAZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!

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  63. j

    slaves to their charts…. lol

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  64. The Fly

    More good news for GLW and AUO

    http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090527PR200.html

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  65. Red Rooster

    Anyone who owns MON is a barnacle on a cat-turd barge.

    Sometime this week, I predict the fly will have his face fucked by an angry Kodiak.

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  66. dave

    Galileo

    why don’t you enlighten us about the Bilderberg leaks.
    I can’t seem to find any info on it except for ufo and bigfoot sites. I don’t see why they would give a shit about an extinct species like bigfoot.

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  67. The_Real_Hmmm

    dave

    Follow your nose to the obscene stench of the closest inner city homeless man (CNBC reporter turned blogger) at the corner of dumpster and conspiracy theory and look around for any fresh puddles. There’s your fucking Bilderberg leak.

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  68. E8

    Can’t vouch for the credibility of the source but this is what I recall reading somewhere (think it was posted on IBC):

    http://hellgeist.livejournal.com/165826.html

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  69. ME

    all this back-N-forth bitching and moaning is starting to sound like elitetrader….
    fuck the treasuries, fuck Obama/Geithner/uncle Ben ……
    who cares….just follow the fucken trend and manage risk and you’ll make money…UP or DOWN….. even sideways (if you trade options)
    Dont anticipate, but participate!

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  70. Rhymed meter requires an equal number of syllables.

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  71. Sierra Water

    FYI

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  72. Joe

    Fly, we like you and we want you to be around to entertain us with your poetry…get out. The risk/reward ain’t there son. You can re-enter the long side above 940-950 but now is a good time to start building short positions or at least be flat.
    Some here claim that money is moving from bonds to commoditis. It ain’t so. The money that left the bond market today is enough to damn near double the tiny commodities complex, excluding gold and oil. Gold is not a comm, its MONEY
    I am a commodities bull but I got run-over last fall and I am afraid of another deflationary cycle selloff in comm’s.
    I am not too concerned with the bonds untill 4% on the 10YB. above that, we are in for some pain in the economy and general market. This pain in turn will reverse the selling of bonds and the deflationary scare will get all the money back into the treasuries. This is what I am seeing from now till end of October. We will see DOW in the low 7’s before the summer is out. This might be the bottom for this bear market.
    Who was the prick that said he makes 5k per day scalping and is neither a bull or a bear? We are smart enough to know that a very-very small number of daytraders can do this, the rest (98%) crap out in short order. You ain’t one of those 2%.
    Fly, I dont believe you are up 50% for the year either. If you are, egt the fuck out of your long positions and go to Bora Bora for the rest of the year.

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  73. Joe Sixpack

    Bulls are in great company…me! Per Dave Rosenberg:

    Finally, the share of households who are bullish on equities rose to 35.8% from 31.7% in April and the March low of 19.6% (this is the highest since July 2001). The ‘bear share’ fell to 30.8% from 35.7% (was 52.8% at the
    March market lows) — the lowest the bear share has been since October 2007. Could be the hidden ‘contrary’ negative data-point in a report that is being viewed as widespread bullish for equities.

    • THE LAST TIME THAT THERE WERE MORE EQUITY MARKET BULLS (35.8%) THAN BEARS (30.8%) WAS BACK IN OCTOBER OF 2007 WHEN THE MARKET WAS HITTING ITS PEAK. THIS METRIC WORKS LIKE A CHARM BECAUSE LAST MARCH, AT THE MARKET LOWS, THE GAP BETWEEN THE BEARS (52.8%) AND THE BULLS (19.6%) IN THE OTHER DIRECTION WAS THE LARGEST SPREAD SINCE JULY 2008 (AND THE SECOND LARGEST GAP ON RECORD).

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  74. Henry Fool

    CROX is going to 5.50!

    Anyone have a stockcharts account?

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  75. The Fly

    Well fuck you too.

    Night.

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  76. Screw the Lakers
    Screw the Lakers

    .

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  77. ottnott

    Interesting numbers in this week’s AAII sentiment survey.

    Both bullish (40.4%) and bearish (48.6%) sentiment increased this week – by 665 and 327 basis points, respectively.

    Neither number is of much significance. It definitely leans bearish, as the results have generally done since late 2007, but it isn’t anywhere near peak levels.

    Of more interest is the neutral sentiment at 11.0%. This is the 3rd lowest number in the past 5 years. Both of the 2 lower numbers were relatively recent, and appeared at times of market distress – October 2008 and March 2009. Both of those lows in neutral sentiment were accompanied by very high levels of bearishness.

    Looking at a few other cases where very low neutral sentiment occurred without very high levels of either bullishness or bearishness, it doesn’t appear that the current condition is a useful trend predictor. I don’t have the time to try to figure out if it is useful in forecasting strong moves.

    For now, I just take it as an indicator that individuals are are becoming less uncertain about where the market is headed, but, as a group, they don’t have a consensus opinion.

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  78. j

    omg

    there’s really serious tension in the capital markets. Euro/yen is pushing over 134 and Dollar yen is 97.

    Yep there’s tension there alright. LOL

    But hey the $5million + Sth Cal real estate market is looking slightly offered so that means stocks could “crash either today or October”, applying Scum bucket’s famous prediction again.

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  79. Fly's Training
    Fly's Training

    Mr. Gotti
    So you think all bears should go sit in the corner with Josh? Are we all pro- Bilderberg conspiracy and all perma bears? I think not. There are those that look at the charts and see a trend change HAS Already arrived. And YOU sir are the Idealogue.

    Can you consider the Possibility that stocks may decline now? Are you so wed to your factory ramp-up story that you cannot see the other side? You have overstated your thesis and cannot back off because your monstrous ego is in the way.

    I attempted to guide you in the proper direction in my last missive. You won’t listen and now the bears will claw your testicles off. Not saying we will go to March 9th. If you will stoop to reflecting on the FACTS:
    1.Put call ratio wedge crossed. head and shoulders breakout. 2 Qs cross over. 3. NYAD Cross. 4. Bullish percentage over 50dma cross. 5. BP compx above 50 dma cross. Are you saying we will go straight UP with no retracements?

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  80. Tail pipe

    Fly gets aggressive when he starts to get nervous about his positions.

    You can tell today rattled him a bit. its a defense mechanism to get all loud and ovah the top. A day or two more of selling and you will see a shit load of

    “FLY SELLS”
    “FLY SELLS”
    “FLY SELLS”

    You have little big mans syndrome……thats what it is

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  81. Yogi & Boo Boo
    Yogi & Boo Boo

    j –
    Q: “What the fuck are you people injecting?”
    A: heroin.

    This has got to be the best thread in months. Maybe Senor Tropicana, should refrain from posting during market hours, so there is additional pent up demand to post in the comments.

    Seriously, last year when the market was clearly in a downtrend but before the Autumn collapse all of the comment wannabees (DD a notable exception) were tossing out long ideas. Now, we’ve been heading higher for almost three months, and all I hear is top pickers.

    Look, The market’s going up till it won’t. The economy is improving and don’t quote the jobless numbers, because they’re a truly lagging indicator. Any of you that have run a business knows how the cycle runs. People (like Danny)are starting new businesses. Others are making the best of the situation and improving their skills sets and changing careers.

    The government dole is working properly and no one will starve. Sure people that were over-leveraged will lose stuff. So what? They will pick up the pieces and start over.

    During the last financial meltdown (S&L crisis) Bank of Boston traded down to $2.00. Everyone thought it was the end of the freaking world. They recovered, merged with Shawmut (the killer whale) and are now part of BofA.

    Sound familiar? The names change but the game remains the same.

    Wake up and bank some coin. That is all.

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  82. coffee

    these coffee stocks are fucking unreal

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  83. Kirstie Alley

    Forget how big the forex and bond markets are. I’m the next bubble to pop.

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  84. LeBronJames

    No. I’m the next bubble to pop.

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  85. Bernie's accountant
    Bernie's accountant

    Galileo Says:

    All of you stupid motherfuckers ignore the highest, most lorldy of all data inputs to help determine the future of what is yet to be. I’ve posted it here before, yet it goes ignored. The annual Bilderberg meeting took place just last week.

    Gal, I thought the bilderberg burned down in New Jersey in that spectacular fire. It didn’t?

    What the fuck is the Hindenberg meeting and who exactly gives a shit? I’m a fucking financial news hound of sorts. i consume thousands of words of Fin news and to be honest the only time I’ve ever heard of the Hindenberg/Bilderberg or whatever its called was on this site a short while ago when some dude (perhaps you) was panicked about what a couple of idiots had to say. Where the fuck were the bilderbergers back in 2006?

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  86. Kman

    This is both comical and irritating as a newbie is looking to get in on the action.

    I’m trying sign up to this here site and become an official piker, however when I click the PPT tab at work a sex filter kicks in and blocks me from entering the site. You dirty bastards.

    Any advice on getting around this?

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  87. TraderCaddy

    Possible SMH short.
    Going to wait a few minutes, though (until 9:33-35) to decide.

    Homies and the market probably depends on new home sales @10:00 AM.

    Gold popping.

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  88. TraderCaddy

    Short SMH @ 20.93.

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  89. TraderCaddy

    Cover SMH @ 20.70.
    1% a day still keeps the doctor away.
    Off for a nap.

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  90. Henry Fool

    Bought EXEL at the open for 5.70

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  91. Baernie's accountant
    Baernie's accountant

    Ask your support people at work to allow the PPT site.

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  92. Richy

    Am I hearing this mornings news correctly? Current GM shareholders get zero shares in the new company?

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  93. TraderCaddy

    Sorry Fly’s Asco Picks-
    Didn’t see your post.
    I guess great minds think alike sometimes.

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  94. DMG

    Instrument Direction BP Price
    Ginnie Mae 4.5% – 30 year Up 9.4 at 99.593
    Fannie Mae 4.5% – 30 year Up 3.1 at 99.406
    Fannie Mae 4.0% – 15 year Up 18.8 at 99.875
    Fannie Mae 4.0% – 7 year Up 3.1 at 100.703
    Ten Year Treasury Note Up 81.2 at 95.75
    30-year Treasury Bond Up 196.9 at 95.343

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  95. Henry Fool

    tripled down on EXEL here @ 5.60

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  96. Henry Fool

    I’ll double down & go overweight on EXEL if it trades 5.38

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  97. Henry Fool

    I just wet myself looking at the DVAX chart.

    Sorry, I’ll be back.

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  98. Galileo

    You ain’t finding Bilderberg news leaks posted on CNN or FOX because these are the richest and most powerful people on the planet. You’ll be lucky to even know their names. Most of you have no clue what Bilderberg is — a testament to the power these people have.

    The summary of the news leaks is: the current uptrend is an artificial market pump to get everyone back in the market, then ciphon the remaining wealth/power back over to the financiers one last time, by ensuring everyone is heavily invested in the US dollar (the default account denomination currency) and then crashing it. Tank the market. Completely gut it. Replace it with the new world govt financial system.

    The meeting was mostly to determine if they would gut it quickly (Kissinger’s personal recommendation), or make it drawn out, over several years. They don’t want to lose control in the process, so this is very important stuff for them to figure out.

    You’re a sorry group that I have to even explain this to you. Even sorrier are the cornholes who are going to suggest this is not to be taken seriously, or that it’s fictional. Another testament to the power and wealth these people have. Big surprises there, alright. Manipulating idiots is pretty simple. Give me my own world news media and I’ll mess with your mind, too.

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  99. Last Chance

    Fly, I know you know you are brilliant, I just wanted to tell you. You are brilliant. I just love coming here to read your posts. Every blogger fantasizes about writing in your voice, but can’t grow balls large enough to pull it off. Congratulations on your success.

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  100. Bilderberg secretary
    Bilderberg secretary

    hey Galileo, how do you know what we have discussed? We do not publish any speeches or materials. Are you one of us?

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