iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

Does it KLIC Yet?

Why is this so important?

KLIC Kulicke & Soffa increases 3Q rev guidance to $40-45 mln vs $34.85 mln dual analyst estimate (3.70 +0.34)

The co announces that the co has raised its revenue outlook for its fiscal third quarter ending June 27, 2009. The Company now expects net revenue for the third fiscal quarter to be in the range of $40 to $45 million, an increase from the previously forecasted range of $32 to $37 million. Scott Kulicke, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “The increase in customer activity that we saw near the end of our second quarter of 2009 is continuing into our third quarter. Improvement is being seen across all areas of our business, particularly in expendable tools and ball bonders.” (stock is halted)

A riddle of sorts for you lazy gamers.

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107 comments

  1. dave

    CSTR – Coinstar has shown positive growth from its lows in December 08. They operate Redbox video rental units, as well as public use coin counting machines.

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  2. Mushroomz

    Companies are ramping up their chip making capacity.

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  3. AI

    your still hung up on the semis sector which I agree inventories will help in short term, but the demand is not there long term this is just a blip………IMO

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  4. TheArtist

    http://videogames.yahoo.com/events/plugged-in/ps3-bested-by-older-brother/1315218

    Fly, your crystal ball works.

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  5. mrkcbill

    Why do you have a picture of Dick Bove on the front page? That fucker just never quits does he…sounds so convincing, he really is a danger to society.

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  6. mst333

    was at Walmart early tonight, was dead as a door nail
    just saying, this in the DFW area

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  7. JakeGint

    So, do they make nice sofas or whut?

    You seen ‘um?

    Floral patterns. I like the serge with the floral patterns.

    _________

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  8. The Fly

    You fucking idiots just don’t get it.

    Klic is the leading ball bonding machine maker. They help save companies money via cutting the thinnest gold wires possible.

    Klic is the number 1 leading indicator of semi strength.

    Tell me more. Quit being so lazy.

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  9. AI

    I think I have all straight ………. your still on the semis camp as a leading indicator I understand………

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  10. JakeGint

    Okay, now you owe me two monitors.

    Wine doesn’t come off these fuckers either, and that new Danny “the ATM Vendor” banner is just asking too much….

    _______

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  11. The Fly

    But why is KLIC so important?

    You fucking chart chomping morons are incapable of thinking. All you know is moving average up or down. Maybe 5 percent of you have the ability to invest thinking outside of the box. The rest of you are fucking slaves to fibinocci lines.

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  12. DEVILDOG

    Fly, give up. KLIC has a market cap of $227M. They don’t mean shit. They won’t lead the USA out of the Depression we are just starting. Besides, since the FASB changes everyone is making money. Do you not know of the changes to accelerated depreciation? Hocus pocus bullshit. S&P 150.

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  13. JakeGint

    Indicating a new generation of chips, therefore a new cycle of production upgrades (not to mention actual product innovation) from materials to finished goods inventory to retail shelves.

    (cue the Cat Stevens: Morning has broooookeeehhhhhnnnn, liiiike the firs’ moaaaaaaaanin’, blackbird has spoooooooooken, like the first dayyyyyyy)

    Moreover, I’ve been thinking about investing in bail bondsmen for years now.

    ________

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  14. The Fly

    DD

    The cap is irrelevant. Chips don’t get packaged without klic equipment. 90 percent of all bonding is done their way. They are the market leader.

    If you are going to try to get in the sandbox with me bring your A game.

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  15. AI

    No Jake he means CAPEX……..meaning shit is moving again….like I said is just a blip IMO

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  16. wilmer

    This is great news for the housing market!

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  17. marty

    if a company stumbles on a breakthrough product, they’re home. That’s what keeps Intel up at night.

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  18. Baron Wrathchild
    Baron Wrathchild

    dave Says…CSTR…They operate Redbox video rental units

    You might be on to something here. I can’t even use one of those things because there’s always people lined up in front of them waiting to use it.

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  19. dave

    A ball bonder. Isn’t that what they use to make gay men closer?

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  20. The Fly

    Do some work. You will see klic marked the top of the last semi boom when they announced a slow down in ball bonding equip sales. Actually, it rocked the market that day. Who remember?

    Am I the only one who knows this stuff? Come on.

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  21. DEVILDOG

    Accelerated depreciation accounting bullshit. No growth story here.

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  22. The_Real_Hmmm

    OK I’m about to fuck you up with some knowledge. Spit out those toenails in between your teeth and listen up.

    Here are some interesting points about KLIC first:

    Current industry forecasts from their VLSI group indicate that IC unit demand will decline approximately 20% in calendar 2009, the first year-on-year contraction in IC unit demand since 2001.

    During our second fiscal quarter of 2009, continued weakness in the global economy and its effect on IC unit demand negatively impacted the business and financial performance for the period. To combat this they laid off 20% of their staff and reduced employee wages 5-20% effective Feb 2009.

    Subsequent to quarter end, we committed to a plan to transfer substantially all of our Israel manufacturing to our facility in Suzhou, China. We determined that it was in our best interests to reduce compensation and other costs by migrating production from Israel to China.

    Big fucking deal with that shit, it’s mostly company specific. Here’s the real cajun bbq babyback rub with the industry:

    “Toward the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2009, we began to see improvement in our customers’ capacity utilization, followed by increases in order activity for expendable tools and ball bonders.”

    During the second quarter of fiscal 2009, we launched the ConnX -VLED PS TM automatic ball bonder —an extension of our ConnX PS TM ball bonder designed specifically for vertical LED applications. Devices bonded with a vertical orientation of the lead frame include high brightness and high-power LED lamps. With the launch of ConnX-VLED , we now offer an excellent cost/performance bonding solution for the entire spectrum of LED applications. The LED market has been one of the bright spots in the semiconductor industry recently, as interest in energy-saving lighting solutions remains strong even amid the current economic weakness. We believe extending the technology leadership of ConnX to cover the full range of LED applications will help position us to grow with this market as energy efficient LED solutions become commonplace.

    The improvement in productivity and technical performance of the Power Series bonders translates into lower cost of ownership for our customers, and gives us a competitive advantage. Our strategy includes continuing to expand the Power Series by developing new variants of the Iconn and the ConnX, each optimized for selected high growth applications such as the LED market.

    So the conclusion is that the LED industry is efficiently lighting the future of KLIC, even if their YoY profit and revenue numbers are abysmal. Now to find some LED sellers/beneficiaries off this demand news.

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  23. AI

    You putting way too much emphasis on one company to prove your point which is what people do to asses their thesis …. your seeing green shoots….

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  24. The_Real_Hmmm

    Here it is:

    Using your very semi-homo thesis on “ball-bonding,” here’s the motherfucking LED lighting play on it. That is under the pretense there is demand for those little lite-brites.

    CREE

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  25. MOOBER

    Fly, been following your semis theme, but not your specific pics in the space.

    I made huge bank back in the day on Celestica, an HP spinoff if I am not mistaken. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CLS

    The company offers supply chain management, product design, prototyping, systems assembly and test, product assurance, failure analysis, packaging and fulfillment, and after-market services.

    A step downstream from KLIC, if you will.

    Also, this one is interesting: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=STM

    STMicro buoyed by Asian orders

    By Paul Taylor in New York

    Published: May 17 2009 22:13 | Last updated: May 17 2009 22:13

    From FT.com

    STMicroelectronics, Europe’s largest chipmaker, is seeing early signs of a pick-up in orders from its customers, particularly those in Asia excluding Japan, according to Carlo Bozotti, the company’s chief executive.

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  26. JakeGint

    Real hmmmm — so …

    buy CREE, then?

    ____

    Oops! I see you beat me to it.

    Owned CREE a long time, but do not now… will look again tomorrow.

    ______

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  27. AI

    CREE looks like a double top to me………

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  28. MOOBER

    Ok, maybe some horizontal roll ups in the space coming?

    1/8/2008

    Kulicke & Soffa Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:KLIC) (“K&S”) today announced that the company has entered into definitive agreements to acquire substantially all of the assets of Orthodyne Electronics Corporation (“Orthodyne”), a leading supplier of wedge bonders, and sell the K&S wire business unit to W.C. Heraeus GmbH (“Heraeus”), a precious metals and technology group that has a leading position in its markets.

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  29. The_Real_Hmmm

    Actually Al, CREE already double-topped and reversed as if Judge Dredd just got caught bonding his balls to your mouth. It’s on the run now.

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  30. wilmer

    It appears Fly has been snorting some of Kudlow’s mustard seeds.

    Lemme guess….he gave you the first hit for free, didn’t he?

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  31. AI

    thats to be seen douchebag……

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  32. The Fly

    LED is a minor part of their biz. But, LED shipment are through the roof across the board. All of the LED players trade Taiwan, except CREE, which is #5 worldwide. However, CREE always fucks themselves.

    KLIC is telling you the foundries are ramping hard. Foundries DO NOT ramp unless THEY KNOW the end user is there.

    Go check LCD sales: BRISK. There are shortages of LCD parts.

    AUO is your play for LCD.

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  33. dave

    PANL for OLED technology

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  34. j

    You fucking chart chomping morons are incapable of thinking. All you know is moving average up or down. Maybe 5 percent of you have the ability to invest thinking outside of the box. The rest of you are fucking slaves to fibinocci lines.hahhahahahahahhahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahhahaha

    And straght away the dog brings up his cycle theory…

    It’s truly sickening.

    Ban the next fucker that brings up a chart

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  35. E8

    And the winner is PANL … with a backup from HIMX.

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  36. j

    I actaully think Fly made a great point the other day. If the market continues its bullish course fund managers who have only lightly participated will have to get in to make the averages. The Tech space could see some pretty impressive gains as a result.

    This also follows from Jeremy Grantham’s latest investor letter in which he argues that the market could go to much higher levels as a result of the monetary and fiscal easings.

    He suggests that both these easings- the most the world has ever seen will simply feed into the investment markets rather than the real economy. Of course he suggests it will all come crashing down, but not before it makes a big move up.

    No one should underestimate the reflation trade.

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  37. The_Real_Hmmm

    I see your obsolete LCD television and raise you an LED tv.

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  38. An Engineer

    The Fly is 100% correct.

    It’s important. K&S is a BIG name in the electronics equipment industry…especially with regards to wire bonding. They specialize in high speed, high volume automatic wire bonding. If contract manufacturers around the world are starting to invest in new automatic wire bonding equipment, they are projecting that component volumes are going UP…and they want to be ready for the explosion in volume whilst keeping their costs down.

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  39. The_Real_Hmmm

    Fly,

    Did some more research and I must have heard an Under Armour [sic] commercial because after looking at KLIC, I decided to check out KLAC, a semiconductor manufacturing process managing robot maker. Or something like that. This led me to AMAT who had this to say in their latest quarterly results of operations, in line to what BBY reported about LCDs:

    Results of Operations

    Applied received new orders of $903 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2009, down 64 percent from the first quarter of fiscal 2008. The decrease in new orders for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was primarily attributable to a decline in demand for products and services from memory and foundry customers. In addition, demand for LCD equipment decreased substantially in the first quarter of fiscal 2009 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2008 due to display manufacturers’ lower factory utilization.

    Later, they say this:

    New orders decreased 95 percent to $26 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2008. The decrease reflected the slowdown in the display industry as manufacturers cut production levels in response to weak end-use demand, following a period of strong equipment demand in fiscal 2008 when display manufacturers expanded capacity.

    Net sales increased 12 percent to $149 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2008. The increase in net sales was attributable to the volume of orders received in fiscal 2008.

    So inventory is shoring up, but demand has fallen off a cliff. Therefore, in order for this second derivative trade to sustain, we should check back when Walmart releases some results of their new electronic big TVs for every credit deficient consumer idea. It can’t fail.

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  40. The Fly

    AMAT is not beginning of food chain.

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  41. dave

    Some more support for your thesis.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090415-702175.html

    Have they got Best Buy in China?

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  42. dave

    Is the rally being propped up by the government?

    From Zerohedge:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/flagrantly-visible-hand.html

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  43. lindsay

    Fly “AUO is your play for LCD”
    (KLIC is up to 4.21 now in after hour trading (from close of 3.7) AUO barely
    moved ah)

    main thing that has KLICed for me from working on your challenge the last couple of hours
    is how much I need to learn about how the food chains work for the various sectors

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  44. The Fly

    AUO had no news dipshit.

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  45. The Fly

    Oh sorry. I did not see it was you Lindsay. My apologies, fellow PPT-ite.

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  46. lindsay

    that’s ok Fly– what I meant by posting that was that it was great you called it out for us before it had been caught by after hours buyers– in case people wanted to consider
    buying AUO in pre-market or early tomorrow–while KLIC has already moved up ah close to it’s recent highs of the last month so it may be kinda late to jump on it for day traders
    (but in terms of how little i know as a newbie your call of me as a dips is sooo accurate–and, actually, no doubt in many other areas of my life::)) if my husband was still awake i’m sure he could give you guys at least 3-5 areas which definately would include cooking, turning off lights, locking the car, oh never mind– the list will quickly go over 5 and then i’ll be too
    depressed to keep working on this insomnia hour KLIC challenge

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  47. Maelstrom

    Nepotism..FLY really that tiff/make up between lindsay and you was adorable..gagging

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  48. j

    Yes , it was a truly wonderful, unique moment we experienced here, mael.

    I was choking back tears. The Fly is such a sensualist.

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  49. Yogi & Boo Boo
    Yogi & Boo Boo

    “mst333 Says:
    was at Walmart early tonight, was dead as a door nail
    just saying, this in the DFW area”

    mst, if you’re going to “shop” retail, you need to know that Walmart gets busy on Friday evenings AFTER people get paid, and on the weekends. Monday nights would tend to be slow unless it was the day before a holiday like Halloween.

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  50. 3B

    Nepotism..FLY really that tiff/make up between lindsay and you was adorable…

    Wiping away the tears with a napkin bitchez.

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  51. Maelstrom

    J Says, yes J we are at a unique moment in history, in 20yrs we will be able to say I was there, I read it ..FLY ,our leader by example, has shown compassion and by said example a new era is ushered in..Smiley Faces for everyone..

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  52. kidstock

    KLIC ball bonder orders, GE plastics orders — all early tells. Stock (KLIC) could easily run back to 12.

    The Fly has learned from semi cycles past what it means when this relatively unknown company raises guidance. You’re not going to see it in next month’s book to bill but this number bump by KLIC is a signal of things to come for the group.

    Any thoughts on ASML?

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  53. 3B

    Fly reminds me of a bad scientist who ignores empical data which doesn’t support his (f@cked up) hypothesis. If the market were trending lower at this moment he would be writing about housing starts and default rates. Instead he tries to justify a bullshit rally with talk of green shoots. Whatever.

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  54. j

    Kid.

    The housing data can be ignored as it’s not going to stay down there.

    The US won’t have housing starts at that rate for long as you fuckers will simply run out of housing due to population growth and unsuitable/old housing.

    The replacement rate is over 1 million homes a year.

    That number in fact ought to be viewed with concern as pretty soon there’s going to be a serious housing shortage in the US, possibly starting next year. Beware.

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  55. T MOE

    Fly-
    I have been holding KLIC since the end of 2007 when it was trading at $7 and hace averaged into it along the way. I am now holding a good bit of it. The headline on an analyst report back then was ” Soaring business, Swooning Stock”. The stock just has not performed. I will continue to hold it, waiting for a return to $7.

    Kidstock- I thnk that $12 is quite a stretch.

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  56. T MOE

    A little info for those who believe the worst in housing is over. The first paragraph of the article speels it out perfectly, “The shell game is very clearly laid out now… FHA, Fannie, Freddie, and now even state governments will be giving out nothing to “3%ish” down loans, to low credit borrowers who will have no stake in the home since many will be putting nothing down. We will declare housing recoveries. Then quarter by quarter the sausage will be squeezed out the other end as Freddie, Fannie and eventually the FHA suffer magnificent losses”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/136897-minyanville-subprime-lending-is-back-with-a-vengeance?source=yahoo

    Finally someone who is telling it like it is.

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  57. TheArtist

    Green shoots or Green shits, I don’t care what the fucked up media that is in bed with the governments scheme to lie their way out of a recession and or prop up a sector thru false “cooked” info, but the truth is in reality. Here in the Triad NC area, housing, and I’m not talking sales of already existing housing, I’m talking permits issued for building new houses is very small.

    In fact you have to actually search hard to find a new house foundation going in. I haven’t seen a new foundation go in at all around where I live for at least a 3 mile to 5 mile radius in 12 months. So this shit they keep talking about on TV that housing is getting better has to be somewhere else that is over-riding all that I see.

    I’m on this housing thing because it is the single reason we are in a recession and the single reason the DOW went from 14000 to 6500 in the first place.

    When I see a new footing being dug, I’ll let you guys and gals know.

    And there is a big difference “BIG” difference between “already existing home sales” and “new construction” of a home when it comes to true economic date. You also have to realize most home sales right now are bank owned auctions and sales which to me don’t count.

    When they report the numbers, they don’t ever tell how many homes were “real” owner sales and how many were “bank repossessions” sales, don’t be fooled.

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  58. j

    Moe: The building rate is running about 1 million below the necessary replacement rate. It doesn’t matter what some schmuk says on Seeking Alpha Centuri. If the build rate is below the replacement rate a shortage will develop. It’s about as mathematical as we can get.

    Can housing go lower, possibly but it doesn’t remove the potential shortage down the road if this number keeps up.

    Ask yourself this then: would it have been healthier, given the overhang, for developers to be currently overbuilding? Of course not.

    That number is very bullish for housing down the road.

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  59. kidstock

    My Play of the Day — LDK (8.35)

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  60. TheArtist

    j, yes, although there is no real housing starts going on around my area, being that I am an architectural designer (amongst other things) what people don’t realize is that now IS the BEST time to build a house. Right now, for one seeking a new home, you can buy building materials across the board for less money now, than when times are good and building materials prices are high. Plus, as an added bonus to one wanting a home built now, labor rates have come down and builders are charging less so they can get work.

    Now is the time to build if one wanted a new home, not waiting till “times get better” because what “times getting better” translates into as far as I’m concerned is “everything costs more”.

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  61. j

    Hi Artist:

    Actually i would have thought that now is the best time to buy a house rather than build it…. No!. I would think that you could get deals below replacement cost at the present moment.

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  62. T MOE

    My opinion is not based on the building rate. It has to due with the impending foreclosures that are coming down the pipe. A big piece of option arms and ALT-A have still not been washed out yet. The modifications trying to ease thisd pain will not work, with no job it is impossible for people to pay a mortgage they can not afford in the first place.
    This shell game being played by the feds and the state governments in order to prop up housing and re-inflate the bubble, will only delay the wash out. This is much like the government is doping to inlfate the enitre economy – – Urge consumers to spend, urge banks to provide credit to already over-leveraged, credit challenged families who are dealing with job losses will only create a bigger bubble. There will be more defaults and the debt will be shifted back to the banks, one reason why I believe that the rally in banks and the market rally led by the banks is a head fake, a bear market rally.
    During the worse bear market 1929-1932 there were several big head fakes before hitting the ultimate low.

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  63. j

    Okay:

    so what you’re arguing Moe, is that the US will not build homes even when a shortage develops.

    This is what i think you missing. People having their homes foreclosed will still have to live somewhere, perhaps in rented homes.

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  64. Last Chance

    Fly is King

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  65. T MOE

    In my area housing is now just starting to get hit pretty hard. Replacement cost is lower, but the land is where a big portion of the cost lies. From 2003- to 2007 it was pretty common to see people buying houses then tear them down and build a new home on the highly coveted lots. That has dried up. The inventory has increased houses have been on the market for quite a while. Buyers are just not coming in just yet.

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  66. j

    Moe:

    Your immediate area is not the US and it’s not a forecast of what happens 12 months from now.

    the current build rate is below replacement. that’s it.

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  67. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Hey Mudfoot, you know what we’re here for, lay some treats on us!

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  68. T MOE

    There is not a shortage in Multi-family. This is where people will move. A lot of the people losing there primary residence should rent and save for their down payment. It will take a while for that to happen. Especially with the increase in unemployment

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  69. TheArtist

    j, yes, you can buy an existing home for less, but you also have a “used” home….

    you see, buying a used home to me is just like buying a used car. The car may be in good to great shape but it still has been driven for years and has wear and tear.

    Buying a “used” home is the same, when you buy a used home that say was built in 1985 (we won’t even get into ones built in 50’s or 60’s or 70’s) you still have just bought a 24 year old house, that people have lived in for 24 years. You have 24 years of possible termite damage, rot, rain damage, problems patched and covered up, old ineffecient windows, cracks, leaks, worn floors, and not to mention roofing and heating systems that may have been replaced ten years ago but will be needing to be replaced again soon = $$$$.

    I would always have a new house over an old one unless I got it for a song. When you buy a new house you have to realize you have brand new fresh everything, modern new energy effecient windows, new caulking, new flooring, new roof, no rot and termites haven’t even discovered the house yet, also don’t forget you have brand new toilets and most important, when building a new home for yourself you get to pick the floorplan and build exactly what you want. No windows/doors in places that bother you etc.

    The price difference is meaningless to me.

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  70. j

    Yea, and they rent, who’s is going to own the stock?… And what begins to happen when the shortage really hits? Foreclosures etc. doesn’t change the replacement rate or the need for housing stock that’s needed for both old unlivable homes and higher population growth.

    A 458,000 build rate is very bullish for housing down the road.

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  71. j

    Yea Artist, i agree. You need to take in depreciation when buying an old home to compare. However even factoring that in I would bet that you could still buy below replacement after deprecation.

    I also wouldn’t live in an old home either. It would make me puke.

    The stock overhang is going to disappear.

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  72. TheArtist

    Also, let me put this into the fray. Sorry about the back to back postings, but one other thing I need to mention here on housing in my area. There are still brand new houses developers built at the very top of the bubble back in winter 2007 spring of 2008 that they built on spec and all those houses are still empty and still have for sale signs in the yard and have been that way going on now 13 months. So here we even have brand new built houses that haven’t sold, and they haven’t sold because the developers are still asking way too much money for them.

    So these are what you call “existing” homes but yet are brand new (well, a year old now, but never lived in)

    I’m waiting to see an auction company’s van out front soon.

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  73. 3B

    That replacement rate crap j is spewing is just that, crap. Look at the vacancy rates before you pollute this board with drivel asshat.

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  74. JakeGint

    ^^^^^
    (Architect)

    😉

    ________

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  75. Try Zillow for national data. The housing bubble was huge. About 25% of the homes at the peak were speculators. Over a year supply was built above replacements. Las Vegas now has 2 out of 3 homes under water! The tragedy is the government could have stepped in one year earlier and cooled it before it became totally ridiculous.

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  76. Cash-N-Guns

    If I may…fuck housing- we all know the abortion that has taken place…AHD..yeah ladies…!! WTF..will STEM please fucking find some volume…ELN..ah hem…buy it..!!

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  77. j

    3B

    Look, you fucking innumerate, dribbling moron. The US needs over 1 million homes (closer to 1.5 million actually) each year to replace older ones that can’t be used any longer and to accommodate increased population as a result of immigration and the natural increase.

    If the build rate is less than the replacement needs the difference is going to come out of the current overhang. If the build rate doesn’t increase there will be a shortage of housing.

    If you can’t figure that shit out you shouldn’t be on this fucking board as you’re too fucking stupid (there’s an IQ requirement of at least 38).

    It doesn’t mean the price will zoom higher, but it does mean that within a year that overhang will disappear and there will be a shortage and in that environment falling prices will be a thing of the past.

    Now stop dribbling and mom’s calling you for breakfast.

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  78. Driven

    Jake,

    I wanted to clear up something from last night’s thread. TheArtist, you’re talking about the NC Triad (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point), right? That’s 90 minutes west of the Triangle (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill). My nonexpert take on the latter is that things are holding up fairly well.

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  79. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Question to the bears: what would it take to turn your market opinion to the bullish side, and how would you implement the change, i.e. wait for a pullback, etc?

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  80. Henry Fool

    Started CREE @ 27.40 and more NG @ 3.71

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  81. Cash-N-Guns

    this thread cant end soon enough…fuck makes me want to listen to CNBC…shut up girls..go do some trades..

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  82. Mushroomz

    FAZ holders getting their face melted, yet again

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  83. carson

    is ftk worth holding.? Long termn it look like there is lots of upside potenial right?

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  84. Yogi & Boo Boo

    j – nice point on the housing replacement rate. It’s similar to the reason I’m still mildly bullish — things break, wear out, and need to be replaced.

    I agree it’s not rocket science. One of the reasons the automakers got into such a deep pit, is that their cars kept lasting longer. People did not NEED to replace their cars as in the 60’s and 70’s, where the life expectancy was 100K miles or less, now almost anything with 4 wheels will last well over 250K unless abused.

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  85. j

    anon:

    It doesn’t matter if Nevada has a fucking overhang for the next 50 years. I bet there’ll be a freaking overhang in Detroit for the next 25 years at least.

    The point is that the overall national stock will be less than demand within 12 months or actually before then….try this….end of this year, if you wanna put a date on it.

    You can still have an overhang in shit hole deserts like Nevada, or Detroit simply because there won’t be any jobs there and people will exit or won’t go there.

    It’s the national stock that’s more important that regional aberration.

    Here’s my bet, I reckon there will be shortages of housing in Texas over the next 1- 3 years.

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  86. ZenProfit

    VIX falls to new 8 month low.

    Points to Dow and S&P moving even higher.

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  87. Keyser Soze

    Deutsche Bank on housing “shortage”:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-housing-bubble-almost-over-but-no-recovery-in-sight-2009-5

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  88. I’m glad that I am not $5 mill short indexes like the QQQQ.

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  89. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Anonymous: Shut up homo, go ski down a meat stick.

    So looks like we are about to have a massive outbreak of the Swine soon. This could get nasty.

    ZenProfit: Complacency is the root of all evil.

    Chips look like they are ready to moonshot. Long 5000 AMKR and 700 ATHR here.

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  90. T MOE

    Nice move again today on TBT. I forgot who it was on this board that said they jumped in with me the day it took a massive hit when that day the fed annouced they were going to buy a shit load of treasuries, but who ever it is I hope they did not sell and are enjoying the melt up

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  91. JakeGint

    TMOE — Wasn’t me, but I’ve been in TBT since the mid 30’s, and bot up to $44.

    _________

    Gappy — with you on AMKR.

    _______

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  92. 3B

    @j wrote:

    to accommodate increased population as a result of immigration and the natural increase…

    natural increase? you’re chitting me, right? And, as we all know, immigrants live ten to a teepee. you crack me up j.

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  93. JF

    KLIC ing very nicely, thank you.

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  94. JakeGint

    Scum, contrary to popular belief, not all of our immigrants are coming here via 200 meter relay across the Rio Grande.

    _________

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  95. 3B

    Jakey thinks immigrants will save teh eCONoME, he should run for CONgreff. LMAO!!

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  96. Cash-N-Guns

    US has become 1 big pussy…its just pathetic…weak and stupid is our new national fucking standard…Illegal aliens..shoot the fucks at the border or when found in US..problem solved..weak fucks go watch fucking fat pig Ophrah.

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  97. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Chips are easy winners here. Bears are getting smoke rolled. DEVILDOG, I have a repo order for your pretend Viper.

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  98. j

    natural increase? you’re chitting me, right? And, as we all know, immigrants live ten to a teepee. you crack me up j.

    You really are just fucking with us, aren’t you? You can’t really be this ignorant and then trying to parlay this into rank stupidity.

    The US population growth rate is around .9% per years. 1.3 million of that is legal immigration while the rest is natural birth rate.

    In total that’s around 3 million smarter people than you per year.

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  99. j

    Fuck you’re stupid. We know there is an overhang at the moment. We know there is a build rate that is well, well below the replacement rate. Eventually these two things intersect and the overhang gets eaten up. This will happen like it has in previous housing recessions.

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  100. Bman

    KLIC sounds like a good ol’ pump-n-dump at this point. 22% in one day? Sure, I’ll go ahead and put money right into that one. LOL!

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  101. The_Real_Hmmm

    J:

    Here’s a Freddie Mac Report to back up some of what you’re saying. Plenty of easy to understand pictures for others.

    http://www.docstoc.com/docs/6039434/FRE-NOTHAFT_05-06-09%5B1%5D

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  102. 3B

    Fuck you’re stupid…

    I must be, I’m arguing with you.

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  103. Henry Fool

    Nova Gold Bitches!
    NG!

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  104. 3B

    4 j, the unemployed carpenter’s helper:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eDGUfvh6PQ

    He’s got the housing market religion koolaide coursing through his veins. LMAO!!

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  105. JF

    Looks like institutions selling fake strength.

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