There is no such thing as inflation or reflation. Inflation is the favored theory of delusional traders, who dream of fire breathing dragons and suck on pink lollipops, while at work.
Last I checked, people are losing their fucking houses, IRA’s and their cars. The principal underpinning behind the inflation theory is “death of the U.S. dollar.” My friend, the dollar is not ready to die, at least not yet. The dollar will die when the charade of musical chairs and smokey mirrors ends. As of now, central banks, worldwide, are pretending as if the credit crisis never happened. They are attempting to reflate out of this mess, as if the year was 2002.
Au contraire, fuck face.
Oil will trade lower, because economic growth is non existent. The supply and demand factors of oil greatly outweigh the little bullshit games you assholes play with the dollar versus euro.
With that in mind, I like short RIG, short XOM and long ERY/DUG here. Position size should be 20% of target size and average ins should be placed on 5% dips.
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Permabear!
Shhheeeeeit, son, you better get liquid soon, or you may start suffering from arthur-ritus (sic) of the prematurely aged. In the meantime:
Watch out for open manholes!
your pal,
Earl
Fuck Oil and the Euro, long live the Orioles.
Oil the commodity is going higher, I told you at 33 and I am telling you at 53, this bitch is going higher. While true I right sized my DXO position at a 40% gain I am still bullish as fuck. Prepare to meet your oil barrel!
And yet another awesome win for your graphics “department”.
BE FOREWARNED: ACC is shitting the fucking bed here.
I also think oil will go lower.
Here’s the upward channel I currently see:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anthonybrown/3383172970/sizes/o/
Don’t call it a
comebackpullback.It’s like these oil and euro lovers have never seen a ponzi unfold before.
Etch-a-Sketching all over their charts like fools.
Cubans still jump in rafts and paddle to America, and the financiers of the world analogous to them are still going to paddle into dollars.
what you think of gold/silver. i agree with dollar rebound here and oil down…. but last time market went down gold/silver and dollar both went up. thoughts?
Inflation is mearly the constant slow grinding down of the value of our dollars…
look at the peso, on average 10 pesos equals 1 dollar.
a loaf of bread here costs 2 dollars, in Mexico it costs 20 pesos (for those who have never been to mexico, thats 2 20 “dollar bill looking” peso paper bills)
OK, now, with inflation, one day our dollar will be so “de-valued” from today that you will have to hand over two 10 dollar bills (20 dollars) to buy that same loaf of bread…..
The gay godzillia fudgepacking will be determined how fast this happens now that the Fed has no problem printing money and diluting the dollar on a massive scale unlike we as a nation have never seen so far.
inflation isn’t a problem if it happens slowly, look at the Chevy Impala, in 1961 a new Impala costs $2,900.00 base
today a 2009 Chevy Impala costs $23,790.00 base
a $20,890.00 dollar increase, what have you got? the answer = a Chevy Impala….. If inflation had never occured in theory from 1961 to today a new 2009 Impala would still cost 2,900.00 dollars but of course the devaluing of the dollar, as a constant is always being liquidated. and, always at a pace that does not keep up with the cost of living, the rich never are bothered by it, the poor are always behind and in a struggle with it.
The cost of living (nothing more than the devaluing of the dollar) is always rising faster than ones wages. times like these, to me are the correction fazes.
GOOD GOD!!!
This is pure godliness!
Filled Sell TBT Limit 46.60 — — 13:01:19 03/24/09
Now look at TBT and the shitting its taking.
Thank you Horatio….once again your time machine was spot on. Took profits on PALM calls and rolled into GE puts.
The Fly is God.
Hey fly dont you know that my sweet spot is around 60, thats where im going fyi!!
The Euro?
Meh.
The yen, now there’s a currency.
Domo Arigoto, Mr. Roboto!
_________
Fly —
Why don’t you give Swannie a tab? He could be like Alpha Dog, twenty years early, all bow huntin’ and bourbon swillin’ stories n’ shit.
Plus he trades like RC — all nutty like, and he knows options cold, which would make up for losing Adam.
Last, you’d get his brother on vacation/hang over days.
___________
Jake…. buy the Norwegian Krone.
Gappin, I would say that is unbelievable except for the fact that I bought tlt before the news and sold it an hour later. I was going to do a tlt with a tbt hedge and get yield. do you know offhand if there is a yield on the tbt. I am getting mixed reports on it. I haven’t checked the prospectus yet
More from the Wit of the Western Provinces, Mark Steyn:
Still, on the basis of its first 60 days, this is a very odd presidency. In between appearances on Jay Leno and his “March Madness” picks, Barack Oprompta also found time to compare AIG executives to suicide bombers:
“Even though it makes you angry because you’re thinking I was responsible, and these folks are irresponsible, and somehow I’m paying for them, it was the right thing to do to step in. The same is true with AIG. It was the right thing to do to step in. Here is the problem. It’s almost like they’ve got, they’ve got a bomb strapped to them and they’ve got their hand on the trigger. You don’t want them to blow up, but you’ve got to kind of talk them, ease that finger off the trigger.”
Right. It’s like you’re at the Jay Leno post-show party and suddenly you notice this AIG vice-president has wandered in, with six figures of bonus strapped to his waist and he’s yelling “Allahu Akbar!” — which is Arabic for “I’d like to deposit this in my Cayman Islands account.”
Maybe Obama’s teleprompter had a wild night on the tiles, and inserted his terrorism speech into the middle of his bonus outrage. But, if not, we now know why the White House announced that they’ll no longer be using the term “enemy combatants” for the Gitmo crowd. They’re reserving that designation for AIG execs, most of whom will shortly be extraordinary-renditioned to Saudi Arabia where a touch of the old electric cattle-prods should soon have their bowling scores heading south.
___________
holding SRS overnight. i doubt Obama is going to be painting roses (the administration and middle-america-voter is stuck in the anger phase of the 5-stages-of-grief).
Jake…. buy the Norwegian Krone
You know, you are not the first person to say that to me this week.
Odd, no?
If I’m gonna start buying money that starts with a “K” you can be damn sure it’s gonna end with a “rand,” and have a nice picture of a springbok on it, poised for the leap.
___________
The first sign that the charade is ending occurred a couple of days ago when the head of the Chinese central bank said that the charade is not ending and that they love our wild-ass spending plans. Isn’t that what you would say if you were sitting on a pile of dollars?
http://www.nowandfutures.com/d2/Mortgage-Rate-ResetsARM2007-2015.png
Its funny how housing is showing a rebound. Are we in the eye of the storm? Option arms are coming to a bull market near you…
What Does Option Adjustable-Rate Mortgage – Option ARM Mean?
A type of mortgage where the mortgagor (borrower) has several options as to which type of payment is made to the mortgagee (lender). In addition to having the choice of making payments of interest and principal that amounts to those made in conventional mortgages, option ARMs also have alternative payment options where the mortgagor can make significantly smaller payments by making interest-only payments or minimum payments.
Investopedia explains Option Adjustable-Rate Mortgage – Option ARM
Since many option ARMs offer a low teaser rate, many mortgagors unknowingly refinance their present mortgage in hopes of making lower payments. Unfortunately, once these short-term teaser rates expire, the rates of interest are returned back to those similar to conventional mortgages.
Furthermore, for those unlucky mortgagors that elected to make minimum payments, they will find that the principal owed on their mortgage has actually increased. This is because the value of minimum payments did not entirely cover the mortgage’s interest. The uncovered interest would then be added to the mortgage’s principal.
who dream of fire breathing dragons and suck on pink lollipops
You have it all wrong. The dragon didn’t breathe fire, and it was the crocodiles who sucked on the pink lollipops.
For the parents/aunts/uncles out there, the links above are from a really fun book to read to the 3+ crowd.
Needle bug the bug fucker: I would hope no one on this site would need to have Option ARMs explained to them but if so you have no business trading this market at all and most likely took out an Option ARM from WaMu.
Hey needles bug,
we should all be ashamed or our idiot American uneducated bretheren who took on ninja loans on houses that they could never afford and were too fucking stupid to understand the terms. None of this bullshit is my fault. My wife and I built our own large house with our own two hands and no bank note. It is Barney and his kinds fault and he is the mouth on the subject… just Fuck!! And it is not over other waves coming!! Jumbo default and Credit card defaults. only question is when to duck and cover.
Gap,
Agreed. I posted only to clairify. I did a straight 80/20 30yr fixed on a new never lived in foreclosure here in the kingwood area of TX. Then got an 1800 dollar check from Uncle Sam, bought sod. Then got some money back via Hurricane IKE. Crazy
What’s so idiotic about paying zero down on a very expensive asset, and using a nonrecourse loan at below-market rates to finance the purchase?
Hey again Needle, Good for you, Fixed is the only sane thing to do in my opinion. I thought Houston was doing alright. Are you guys in trouble? My nephew got a huge deal a couple of months ago, there. See you guys tomorrow Ive got to go do some heavy lifting in the yard now.
We bought in Riverwalk. got a 3300 sqft 1.25 acre for $63 a square foot. The realitor didnt want to sell to us.. Go figure.
When I was 5 yrs old (40 yrs ago) I would sneak out of the house and walk to McDonalds and buy a cheesburger, fries, apple pie, and large Chocolate shake for $1 exactly. It’s around $6 right now but with lower quality.
With the bailouts and rampant borrowing I may end up having to pay $7 instead of $6.
I’m shaking in my boots now with the rest of the shaking girls.
What’s so idiotic about paying zero down on a very expensive asset, and using a nonrecourse loan at below-market rates to finance the purchase?
Nothing at all, if your chief aim was free rent. The idiocy is on the offerer’s part.
___________
I am very familiar with that book, btw… but didn’t you just have a baby??
Whaddaya got, Little Man Tate, ovah theah?
_________
Inflation is simply defined as an increase in the money supply. Many of the idiotic pundits try pointing to current prices as evidence that there is NO inflation however they fail to understand the basic definition. Prices are a result or symptom of inflation but do not constitute inflation itself. The world is still de-leveraging therefore the prices increases that are often associated with inflation have not taken affect yet however this is only a temporary delay. Eventually all the printing the fed is doing will show up in the form of higher prices and it will be at a time when people can least afford it.
The ruling elite of this country which is made up of Central Bankers & Special interest groups LOVE inflation. In many ways inflation actually benefits them greatly. There biggest benefit stems from the way inflation is distributed throughout the economy. The elites are the first to get their dirty hands on the freshly printed money therefore they get tremendous value from it since the price increases have yet to take effect in the economy. By the time this money trickles down to ordinary people the prices increases have taken affect therefore the overall affect on them is simply dilution.
We must destroy the fed and their unchecked power to rob the American citizenry by way of inflation. Ron Paul has introduced a bill that will at least get us on the right track.
Take a look
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/campaigns/auditthefed.php
Short the trannies.
100% right Cardiff Giant. Mucho thumbs up.
_________
And deflation is a major threat to the power elite so you can damn sure expect them to inflate like there is no tomorrow when pressed against a wall.
Inflation is candy for the rich. When PRICES inflate, the ASSETS they own also inflate. Odd, no?
Inflation is death to the poor / working class. When PRICES inflate, their FIXED PAYCHECKS (denominated in dollars) stay flat.
I got your “change” right here. It used to be a dollar.
HuffPost leaks excerpts from Obama’s speech later tonight.
Prospectus: no. ECON101 fail.
Poor people have debts that are fixed in nominal terms, rich people will be forced to invest in higher-interest returns to not lose real value.
would hit
Flys worst post ever
these smallcaps are making me thirsty
Poor people have debts that are fixed in nominal terms, rich people will be forced to invest in higher-interest returns to not lose real value.
True, but really poor people have little access to credit, so they get schtupped at both ends. No access to cheap money, yet paid in same disabled specie.
The worst, however, is the fixed income crowd that must rely on savings– or worse, Social Security — and cannot afford to risk their savings in opportunities that will keep up with inflation.
Shrug, sawry Grandma, Jimmy’s room is open, if you need it.
_________
Fly did you get appendicitis again? This is not like you to not offer some closing remarks. Or are you preparing your popcorn and beer for tonight’s fiasco?
yada yada yada SOS as NOV hits 6 month high
on Monday.The gloom and doom BS gets old.
small caps, mid caps, hub caps, not necessarily in that order.
From Obama’s speech tonight:
“We will recover from this recession. But it will take time, it will take patience, and it will take an understanding that when we all work together; when each of us looks beyond our own short-term interests to_the_wider_set_of_obligations we have to each other – that’s when we succeed. That’s when we prosper. And that’s what is needed right now. So let us look toward the future with a renewed sense of common purpose, a renewed determination, and most importantly, a renewed confidence that a better day will come.”
Can some one please tell me what my obligations are? I pay my taxes. I work everyday. You mean to tell me that there is more that I owe? And to whom?
Obama is a fucking walking, breathing, nightmare.
c’mon woodshedder – this is a dream for daytrading. You couldn’t buy this global vol shit anywhere.
Frankie, yeah, great for daytrading. Great for swing trading.
Beyond that, I’m guessing you don’t have any children.
Isn’t oil UP because it requires more dollars to buy the same barrel because the dollar is worth less?
Nothing to do with supply or demand?
Just asking.
mrkcbill likes the Vietnamese dong here versus the dollar – 18,000 dong/ dollar.
Perhaps this has already been posted, but if Maxine Waters is allowed to serve on the House Banking committee, it is a 100% lock that this country is going in the shitter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ugpIryLGtI
I have been molested and abused one too many times and I will not take it anymore. I am not going to take it tonight I am boycotting!
Besides you will make me print the same thing you have said over and over and over and over so I would hope you have it memorized by now.
Did anyone here realize that 1.3 Trillion > 9.7 Trillion?
Obama: If we don’t spend more and more and more, we’ll never knock down the deficit.
Your argument is correct but the dollar IS in bad shape and people will be looking for alternative safe investments. gold oil… they may drop – but not tank.
It’s time to look at C, BAC and the IYR for real plummeting action. Geithner is the captain of the Titanic. Not a worry in the world.
When the next plan fails — nobody is going to want to touch banks and it’ll be no-bid down to zero.
FLY
I didnt know that writting for IBC was a Union job. Come the fuck on–you can hear a pin drop around here lately.
There’s a bunch of lazy mofo’s around this bitch. Either people start bringing their A game or your readers will go to one of many top tier blogs–Your call.
It was ok for a few days, but its to the point now where youre starting to look like shit.
We know your busy this week with stuff going on, and Im sure everyone else has an excuse too. But who gives a shit.
Start Typing.
Fuck you, no one owes you shit.
Danny- Thats exactly the wrong attitude. Cant say Im surprised though. I was young and immature too at your age. Got any new skateboard tricks?
Sweet Dreams
Thoughts on: to_the_wider_set_of_obligations
Moral obligations, ethical obligations, community obligations, patriotic obligations.
Society is falling apart due to greed, irresponsibility, and malfeasance. The problems are grave, as you know.
The “greatest generation” was asked to sacrifice much. I believe we are the “newest, greatest” generation.
This era is going to be a doozy, and we will need each other, acting in community, to recover.
It may no longer be enough to pay taxes and retreat to comfort.
We may never recover.
WTF FLY: I agree this site sucks why don’t you go to the other blogs they are much better. Nothing to see here. Here is a link for you to try out: http://asspoundinghunks.com
FLY is conducting business and is still managing to post.
Can one of you tabbers handle carrying the fucking tourch for a day to help out your right hand man?
Throw the guy a fucking bone. He busts his ass everyday on this site and you guys act like kids in High School who just got a substitute teacher for the day and slack off.
Its a shame that you get treated with the same kind of respect as a substitute teacher FLY.
What a shame.
Boomer, give me a break.
So the government is now going to tell me what my moral obligations are? I guess we’re not going to talk about abortions then.
So the government is now going to tell me what my ethical obligations are? Hmmmm. Is it ethical to take my hard earned money and give it to someone who never saved a penny, borrowed more than they earned, and then blew it all up?
So the government is going to tell me my community obligations? Let me guess. Take care of more people who are capable of taking care of themselves, but blew it all up.
Patriotic…lmao….what a fucking joke. I have always supported my country, and troops. And you no damn good and well Obama is not talking about supporting the military.
The irresponsibility and malfeasance is placed squarely on the foreheads of congress and the white house. Not on my head. Are you really serious? Who has been more irresponsible than the gov’t itself?
No, what Obama is talking about is taking more of my money and giving it to others. Fuck that. You know damn good and well what he means.
We may never recover because no one is asked to be responsible for themselves, contrary to your belief that we should be responsible for others. Again, fuck that.
gapping
http://www.howmanyguysdidyourwifefuckbeforeyoumarriedher.com
Can someone tell me when the words “investment” and “subsidy” became one and the same?
Obama’s continual “we need to invest in healthcare, energy, and education” is wearing me out.
The smartest folks around are not saying a word. These folk are just simply watching from the crows nest as dumb passers stagger and weave on their dumbs moves because “they need” to be involved in every move of the market. Cheers greek
WTF FLY: First that’s not a valid URL and second I am not married.
gapping:
http://www.howmanyguyshasyourgirlfirendblownbeforeyoustarteddatingher.com
Oddly enough, I used to fall into the trap of blaming the individual who took out a crazy loan they couldn’t afford. I’d think.. geez… do some basic math!
But the people who should know, who did know… the BANKS gave out the loans to people they KNEW couldn’t afford it.
Average Joe/Jane can’t shove off all the blame but the media and most of us blame them.. the guy who couldn’t afford it vs. the companies who knew they couldn’t and worked the system.
It’s like giving a fully loaded gun with the safety off to a teenager and then saying they should have the common sense not to shoot something or somebody.
While the Banks didn’t pull the trigger (sign on the dotted lines) they gave everything to the people they needed to shoot themselves with a smile and hardly any education on what they were getting themselves into.
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Hated the title of the book but damn it’s true.
Prospectus Says:
Inflation is candy for the rich. When PRICES inflate, the ASSETS they own also inflate. Odd, no?
Inflation is death to the poor / working class. When PRICES inflate, their FIXED PAYCHECKS (denominated in dollars) stay flat.
*****************************************
You got it ASS BACKWARDS.
Inflation is the FRIEND of the middle and lower incomes, whose balance sheets are mostly DEBT – mortgages, car loans,credit card balances. Their only big asset is their house.
With a $100K house and $80K mortgage, a doubling of prices raises a homeowner’s equity from from $20K to $120K, a 6x increase, and makes the monthly payment HALF as painful.
The retireds have their SS indexed. Our tax brackets areindexed. Look back at 1977-80 and you will see you got yourgreatest salary increases- 10 to 15% a year. The inflation
went away, the EFFECT of your higher salary continues.
Inflation hurts ONLY the wealthy bondholders. It cuts downthe real value of federal and personal debt and mortgages.
Inflation is the FRIEND of the common man.
RUN THEM PRINTING PRESSES!
@Woodshedder
You said.. “The irresponsibility and malfeasance is placed squarely on the foreheads of congress and the white house. Not on my head. Are you really serious? Who has been more irresponsible than the gov’t itself?”
US! Congress, everybody in the White House works for us. They forgot that and the people (you, me, everybody who can vote) is responsible. They have forgotten who they work for. It’s like we hired the painter to paint the house and now he’s living here, eating our food and not flushing the toilet.
To make matters worse, we hire him again to pain the baby’s room.
We need to fire these people. Remind them who they work for. Set limits.
Kinda what was in that video The Fly posted a few days ago.
–
Nothing.
“We will recover from this recession. But it will take time, it will take patience, and it will take an understanding that when we all work together; when each of us looks beyond our own short-term interests to_the_wider_set_of_obligations we have to each other – that’s when we succeed. That’s when we prosper. And that’s what is needed right now. So let us look toward the future with a renewed sense of common purpose, a renewed determination, and most importantly, a renewed confidence that a better day will come.”
____________________
This statement is a completely different view than we’ve seen in the past from Presidents. I don’t think Barack was born into a wealthy family, but clawed his way up the ladder. Based on his thought patterns I’m confident that he is not technically retarded and actually has a vision of a country that looks beyond using destructive behaviors for short term profit.
One thing is for certain, the economic crisis is real. In fact, I was one who sent a letter to my Congressment to support the passage of the first round of borrowing. I did this based on my understanding that it was reqiuired then and I believe that continued interventions are required. This is because I do feel a wider sense of obligations for the common good. Without this intervention, we would have had anarchy and failures that would have affected national security.
Inflation is better than a swirling deflation spiral of death. You just need to tame the beast, which is a bit tricky, but a controled real iflation of 5% to 10% a year would be the best, it sure would piss off China and Japan and you could pay off you personal debt with cheaper dollars…. all of our trading partners will need to follow or lose market share and have our exports kick their ass, they are screwed.
Why the hell is steel up, the smart money sees far into the future, this is our only option.
Not for nothing, but next time you feel that way, why don’t you send your Congressmen a check from your account, not a recommendation to tap mine.
omfgitsjd, you’re right, it has been a completely different view from past presidents. I’d say it was to be expected from a socialist, as he is the most left-winger of any president this nation has ever seen.
You know what? This guy has turned into a massive fucking joke.
Watch this … fuckery at its best:
http://www.breitbart.tv/html/304123.html
And it is important to separate the financial bailout, which may truly have averted economic catastrophe, social unrest, etc., from the trillions in social program spending that Obama is proposing.
One can be for averting financial catastrophe without supporting a gargantuan tax and spend president.
‘but a controled real iflation of 5% to 10% a year would be the best’
I don’t know about the rest of the country, but I know my wages haven’t kept up with inflation in regards to fuel costs, health-care costs, tuition costs etc…
Do you think your salary/income will double every 7 to 10 years based on 5% to 10% inflation? Add in the cost of living adjustments for Social Security and inflated Medicare costs. It isn’t a pretty picture.
Supply side economics Dave …. only problem is the free market let all the best paying jobs for the largest class of consumers be exported to other nations leaving most to make up for the hidden supply-sided inflation by the use of debt and credit.
Reagan started it, Bush I opposed it but succumbed to it and Bush II tried to reinstate it but never got a hold of spending (due to the war) to offset the tax cuts.
“They argued that if people could keep a higher fraction of their income, people would work harder to earn more income. Even though tax rates would be lower, income would rise by so much, they claimed, that tax revenues would rise.”
Seems to be a common theme around here by the same few doing most of the complaining about the new economics …. apparently they haven’t gotten the news … it failed! People could only work so much and with lower paying jobs that meant more hours for less pay by the masses and hence less tax revenue. But not only that, they failed to offset the lost tax revenue with spending cuts and under Bush II had two wars going while cutting taxes yet again.
Bottom Line: The argument that “economic growth can be most effectively created using incentives for people to produce (supply) goods and services, such as adjusting income tax and capital gains tax rates, and by allowing greater flexibility by reducing regulation” has proven to be a failure over three administrations. The current WH resident and staff are returning us not to socialism but Keynesian macroeconomics which “contends that tax cuts should be used to increase demand, not supply, and thus should be targeted at cash-strapped, lower-income earners, who are more likely to spend additional income.”
“Keynes contended that aggregate demand for goods might be insufficient during economic downturns, leading to unnecessarily high unemployment and losses of potential output. Keynes argued that government policies could be used to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing economic activity and reducing unemployment and deflation.”
“Keynes argued that the solution to depression was to stimulate the economy (“inducement to invest”) through some combination of two approaches: a reduction in interest rates, and government investment in infrastructure. Investment by government injects income, which results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a cascade of events, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.”
Had the SS economics not endured as long as it did we may not have gotten into such a huge bailout mess today. Ironically, those that benefited the most from SS Eco are the same experiencing wealth destruction via deflation. Now those same folks have to hope that Obama/Geithner/Bernanke are successful in reflating the pile of shit left behind in order to save what’s left of their private investments … Odd, no?
PS: Maybe Obama is referring to people working together to help family, friends, relatives and neighbors that are in need of assistance when referring to “obligations”. Somehow I am picturing a young family helping that born in the wood uncle that wasn’t able to help himself rather than some guy that pays his taxes,supports the military and salutes the flag, even if it stands next to a “southern cross”.