Just a quick closing thought, before I run along. Now that all of the life insurance players are going out of business, MET, TMK, SLF, LNC etc, who is going to pay for the coffins and burial rituals?
Answer: The Government.
Prepare for Government Sponsored Burials.
In other news, your variable annuities are fucked too. All of the insurance morons took your deductibles and went long, son—stocks that is.
UPDATE: Denninger has a wonderful, heartfelt, essay regarding the current state of affairs.
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What about those Trillion dollar life insurance policies for all the gold diggers? Does this mean Blowjob Betty Big Boobs is going to be looking for work again?
Fly wears cowboy boots with jeans.
roflmbo!!!
“gappingandyapping Says:
What about those Trillion dollar life insurance policies for all the gold diggers? Does this mean Blowjob Betty Big Boobs is going to be looking for work again?”
I’m already planning how I will decorate my FEMA tent.
Don’t worry, we have a large selection of body bags.. By the way, when our we going to get a Conspiracy Master Tabbed Blog on this site (sorry about the pre midnight rule violation, won’t happen again)
This is a real goat ass licker’s market. Shorted the whore GE at $6.88.
Fly still holding TNA??
And then comes the Amero.
The scary thing this is still not showing a sign for a bottom. 6400 I hope takes.
It is your beloved (hated) XOM that is crashing this market.
No one here gets out alive.
SRS prints 100
Dow will drop below 6000 in the next 10 trading sessions. Write that down.
Also remember when I said the Dow would never see 8000 in a Looooong time. That must have been 2 weeks back. I might have to say the same for 7000. If you are long selling here might be the best price you will get forever. Dow 3000 within 12 months.
Life on this earth is a death sentence.
Europe is way short of dollars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4939796/Europes-banks-face-a-2-trillion-dollar-shortage.html
Until you have lost everything then you will finally be free.
This ain’t a crash until we get some investment bankers jumping off buildings.
Didn’t a Goldman strategist say they’d get down to between 600-650 before a run to 1000 by year end?
We’re almost there. What Goldman wants, Goldman gets.
So let it be written. So let it be done.
U may wanna consider dropping the price of that PPT subscription considering no one will have money for food in a year.
“Thunderpup Says:
Europe is way short of dollars.”
No worries here – the Federal Reserve system stands ready to create new dollars out of nothing and give them to their European banking brothers.
mrkcbill gives his neighbor’s kid sauerkraut flavored popsicles on hot summer days.
still long tna.
FLY will agree to barter services for PPT subscription.
You can exchange the following for 1yr PPT subscription
1) 5 gallons of fresh drinking water
2) 3 lbs of fruits and vegetables
3) A Romanian Goat
4) An AK-47
McDonald’s dollar menu looking good right now for dinner options.
Just did KIM again: $8.21 from yesterday down to $7.13 today.
Doing her so much that I’m starting to feel guilty…
If only she wasn’t so damned easy!!
Excuse me isn’t at least a short term bottom here….when literally EVERYONE is yelling Armageddon? Seems to me everyone is living in despair, everyone thinks the end of the world is here, everyone is saying there is no hope….
Isnt that when a bounce happens?
I think psychologically the market has just slit it’s own wrists and is lying in a pool of blood -giving up on any rescue or hope of brighter days ahead.
Tell me if that isnt ‘ bottom mentality”? If it is not bottom mentality the only other option we have is TRUE REAL ARMAGEDDON this time…and not just another down market that will eventually go up.
.
I sold 1000 shares of FAZ that I bought with an avg cost of 74.56.
I then at the close bought 10,000 FAS at 2.73.
Im going down with the ship if it sinks.
FUCK IT.
P.S. Fly, I can afford the PPT now. If I purchase the yearly subsription, will the PPT still be around in 12 months? At this pace eihter the stock market goes to zero, or the Gov. just shuts it down. One day they will say “Fuck you. the stock market is over. It was a big scam and we gave you a chance to make money. If you lost any $$$$$, go fuck yourself”.
If that happens, you should turn it into an interactive porn site.
CAP – I’ll buy PPT subs and trade them for AK’s any day of the week.
Citigroup initiating on N.A. Railroads after the bell:
“Buying Best of Breed — In times of uncertainty, we strongly believe culture
is king and execution is everything. We initiate on the rails with a focus on
quality and selective Buys on “best of breed” franchises CNI and NSC, which
we see offering the most defensive characteristics through the downturn and
structural upside into the earlier stages of a recovery. We initiate with Holds
on CSX, UNP, BNI and CP as reasonable valuations should provide support. ”
Canadian National (CNI), Buy (1M), $39 Target
Norfolk Southern (NSC), Buy (1M), $43 Target
Union Pacific (UNP), Hold (2M), $39.50 Target
Burlington Northern (BNI), Hold (2M), $58 Target
CSX Corp. (CSX), Hold (2M), $25 Target
Canadian Pacific (CP), Hold (2H), $27.50 Target
GE’s closing price: $6.66
Hail Satan!
mrkcbill once dated Whoopi Goldberg.
This is simply a once in a century shake out brought to you by the stock market gods. Once EVERY asshole has capitulated and never even wants to look at stocks again, the market will resume its way to new highs. Shorting the market over the course of its existence has been a FOOLS bet.
SO STFU about the world coming to an end you pikers!
Everyones life is gonna impacted by the dark days that America faces. It’s now very clear that America made a HUGE mistake last November. That bastard cannot speak without a fucking teleprompter. And people thought Bush was stupid (he was BTW), well this fuckin’ Obama is dumber!
Went long at the end of the day. I’m in. Could get bumpy. We’ll see.
The fdic may not have enough to cover insolvent banks…….Read This
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090305/pl_afp/financeeconomyusbankinggovernment
Enjoy
Its pretty sad when the CNBC banner says GE falls only 3 cents, as if it split 3 for 1!
I volunteer to be the Master Conspiracy Theorist tabbed blogger. I have forgotten more of that shit than most people will ever know. That is, until it happens. And it will. Muhahahahaha!
Good Ozark, then you can explain why the ATF office was empty the day of the Oklahoma
you know people are losing their asses in the market when they all start talking about this conspiracy crap. Come away from the bong, get out of the basement- slash ‘bunker’ and let’s all get back to equities please.
Re: Anonymous’ ” It’s now very clear that America made a HUGE mistake last November.”
I emphatically agree Anonymous, I told you all then you should have voted for Ralph Nader! What were you thinking!?
A must read:
http://market-ticker.org/archives/853-More-GE-IMPORTANT.html
Off the wires, no link.
“DJ reports GE Capital credit default swaps worsen even as GE released a statement emphasizing its strong cash position. The CDS are most recently quoted at 17.5 points up front, from 16.5 points up front earlier today, according to Phoenix Partners Group. That means investors must pay $1.75 mln up front, plus a $500,000 annual fee, to protect $10 mln of GECC senior bonds against default for five years.”
That means the first year cost is $1.75 + $500k, or $2.25 million.
That’s 22.5% first year cost to insure $10 million against default!
This means that the market is saying that the odds of GE going bankrupt within the next twelve months is greater than one in five, and that assumes zero recovery.
If the bonds would recover more than 80% in the event of a default then it is implying more than a 100% risk of default, which is obviously impossible.
This is occurring despite GE’s CFO appearing this morning on CNBC making the case quite clearly that there is no risk of default under any materially possible scenario. In other words, his assertion is that the odds of default are zero.
One of two things must be true:
1.
GE’s CFO is lying and must be indicted for doing so.
2.
This so-called “market segment” (CDS) has become so ridiculously overlevered, unsupervised and able to cause failures that it is now within days or even hours of CAUSING GE to fail – not due to GE’s own internal problems, but due to positive feedback that the CDS market is capable of and is generating on the initiative and as a consequence of the action of participants in that market.
Either way a major change needs to occur right here and now, lest we find ourselves with no pensions, no Social Security, no Medicare, no annuities and no government.
THIS CAN NO LONGER BE DELAYED OR TOYED AROUND WITH; WHEN “THE BEZZLE” REACHES THE POINT THAT IT STARTS DESTROYING THE NATIONAL CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL GIANTS THAT MAKE UP OUR ESSENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISES THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN IT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY EMERGENCY AND MUST BE DEALT WITH IMMEDIATELY.
members in the PPT now Fly?
I sold my puts and I’m back 100% in cash. It would be very unusual to keep declining here without some sort of kickback rally.
Does anyone have a bank deposit box?…Is keeping a large amount of cash in one realistic?
about 200
Fly had his balls shaved today.
@ Ritchie
A guy I work with is originally from China. He told me the other day lots of Chinese here keep their cash in safe deposit boxes. Over the course of a year,it costs less than a dollar a day and the gov. has no way of knowing how much cash they really have. He says it allows them to qualify for all kinds of gov. aid because ,on paper at least,they have very little money.
I agree with your closing paragraph, MOOBER, but GE certainly doesn’t meet the “NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN” standard.
The market is currently pricing a much greater than zero probability of bankruptcy for a lot of businesses that can service their debt without a problem, but which may not be able to roll over their debt due to banks clinging to capital.
The problem above sounds so simple and fixable, yet many months and many hundreds of billions have seemingly done nothing to improve the problem. All the attention and money has gone to the giant cesspools of crappy paper.
Moober:
If GE were to fail, then you might as well kiss your country goodbye.
I’ll be skeptical on GE failing. From a logic standpoint, this country would be totally defeated. I don’t think we are truly in that position.
Gecko is the piker.
The last time Wall Street effectively bankrupted the financial system, about 80 years ago, it took 3 years for the equity market to decline 90%. There was one relatively minor bounce of about 30% over several weeks, but aside from that bounce it was generally a slow drip straight down until 90% of all equity market wealth was wiped out.
Now we’re down 50%-60%, with one minor bullshit bounce on very weak volume during December. But it’s been more or less straight down over less than 18 months. This decline is steeper and occured faster than ’29-32. Maybe it will end tomorrow, but I don’t see any indication to suggest the selling is done. We’ve already blown the doors off the ’73-’74 bear market in terms of both the steepness of the market decline and the speed with which wealth was destroyed.
After 1Q09 GDP is reported, we’ll learn the real economy hasn’t contracted this much over 2 consecutive quarters since the Depression. The system almost didn’t survive then, and it is far from clear to me it will survive this. It all depends on the appetite of the rest of the world for U.S. government debt. Pricing in the CDS market indicates investors now perceive the U.S. government is a worse credit risk than several industrial companies. Now that doesn’t make sense because unlike corporate borrowers, the government has a printing press and can ultimately hyperinflate the debt away. The most logical explanation why it costs more to buy default protection on government debt than some corporates is the CDS market is being manipulated. But if it’s legit and people are willing to use their own money to pay more for protection against the U.S. government defaulting than they pay for certain corporate borrowers, then that is some scary shit.
If the system does survive, this is as close to Armegeddon as you’ll ever get.
K.S.: with today’s drop, the current bear is almost exactly on pace with the famous GD (possibly to be renamed GD I).
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) – The U.S. government rescued
giant insurer American International Group in part
because its collapse would dramatically hurt European banks, a
senior Democratic lawmaker said on Thursday.
The U.S. government has bailed out AIG three times since
Sept. 16 and committed about $180 billion to keep the insurer
alive and doing business.
“One of the reasons we had to rescue AIG was the fact that
it was going to bring down Europe,” Pennsylvania Rep. Paul
Kanjorski told reporters after his subcommittee held a hearing
on systemic risk.
As much as I whine and complain about the Federal reserve and public debt, I’m fully aware that the US tolerance for pain in this situation is far greater than that of other nations.
If you think we’ve got it rough, imagine other nations in the world after this shit plays out.
Ritchie,
Regarding safe deposit boxes, I’ve got one but have been less confident over the last few months about the security/safety of its contents. see articles like this one.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/banking/betterbanking/p109173.asp
Piker Soze
Look at the historical chart of the $DJI or $SPX. The market ALWAYS comes back. But you’ll retort this time its different right?
Your crystal ball ain’t so fucking crystal clear fuckface.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252
Great charts Ottnott.
Gecko:
I was pointing out the similarities to the last time Wall Street bankrupted itself and 80% of all equity wealth was wiped out in the process. I have no idea if we go that low this time.
And neither do you, you fucking prick.
Is it possible for the Dow and S&P to go negative ? As in the Dow breaks below 0 and becomes -100, -500, – 1000 etc ? Because as the rate we are dropping, we will be negative by July.
My new price target on SKF – $365 . It will be there in about 1 to 2 weeks. Get long here. $242 is still CHEAP.
I’m pretty sure the Dow and SP500 can only go to $0. The DJIA I believe is just the sum of all 30 stock prices divided by the DOW divisor. The divisor is some decimal like .102102010 or whatever.
S&P500 is the same thing but I believe they add up market caps or some shit and divide by their own divisor.
AAII numbers
70% BEARS
18% BULLS
number of bears is the largest in AAII 21 year history.
Chivas,
Pretty soon it will be bad news to be a bear if those numbers are right.
Gecko, look at your charts again. It took until 1950 to recover 1/2 of the decline during the Great Depression, until 1954 to go back to the peak level of ’29.
I’m pretty sure that during the dire days of the depression, when gold ownership was outlawed, a government agent was on hand to inspect the contents of your safety deposit if you wished to remove the contents. So good luck there.
Enjoy a laugh with Gerald Celente.
Good times 😉
omfg,
LOL.
numbers are right. fresh of the press. they came out early this morning.
market vane and daily sentiment index numbers are also pretty extreme. i do not have investors intellingence numbers yet. i wonder if someone here does.
Safety deposit boxes are only as sure as the word of politicians. Put it in a jar (or fireproof box) precious metals, not currency, and drywall it into your house.
Interesting thought on the lack of funerary insurance funds. I guess it would be good business now to set up a mass-production cheap coffin shop and go buy a small backhoe. How’s this for an ad? “For $300 we’ll strip him, rip him, gut him, and drop him in a hole under a plywood lid. All in less than an hour. Stay for our free* salad bar!”
Mars.
Speaking of death……I think that what we are seeing in reality is the market mourning the death of capitalism and America as we know it.
Obama 08 = we are all screwed.
He and his minions are out for nothing less than the reinvention of the USA as a socialist nation.
The title at the top of this makes me chuckle. Sounds like the necrophelia Molly Parker movie where she only gets off on the dead. ugh. I had to watch it for a film studies class many many years ago in case you’re wondering.
And the photo of the creep with the urn is top notch! Well done Fly!
Mars.
Obama’s idea of a level playing field means we’re all equally worthless.
Wake me up when the sheep are nervous.
The S&P is taking the shape of the satanic horns if you do a 20 yr plot. The great satan laughing spreads his wings. Muaaha ha ha haaaaa.
I was looking at my company employee store specials. One of the big retailers was having a special on coffins. Not sure if they came with handles or not.
I know the virtual world of Second Life is see a big uptick in virtual events for the recently departed. With the Linden dollar following the US dollar 265L = $1.00 Getting placed in the ground of your choice in a server farm is a fraction of the cost of real life.
Note for rational. Were made of atoms. The bits on our screens our made of atoms too. What’s better you have your own private grave cam and can visit virtually by teleporting while picking up some flowers for free or possibly 10L.
Snapini
Jed is the founder of the Phil Mickelson Fan Club
http://isthisthebottom.com/
ahhh, everyone’s yelling armageddon, while im gathering tits-n-ass and Bagoo(bgu).
Buy more gold and go back to eating cheeseburgers.
Ok, I am really sick with a raging fever so I might be a little crazy right now.
I say this is a downside mania. Mania. Bubble. Soon to pop.
Problems? Yes. Bad policy? Yes. Risk? Yes. But armafragginggeddon? No way.
Only God himself calls Armageddon. I am offended by this language, frankly. It is bad theology at the very least.
I may be early, but I am getting long and getting long in a big way. If I lose it all, I don’t care. This is a depression mania.
Fragging bullet proof glass and roundabouts (from yesterday’s posts), riots, draconian measures, gold confiscation, civil unrest, Obama as Antichrist? Come fucking on! This is insanity.
If this is truly correct, y’all better get right with your maker, cause no amount of money is gonna shield you. Gold doesn’t matter. Debt doesn’t matter. Family, God and food matters.
Is that what we’ve come to?
Come on! Sober up!
I am betting that one year from now this mentality is going to be mocked and laughed at (not chuckled at, by the way).
Life goes on. Success goes on. Innovation goes on. Our will to survive and win is STRONG.
Rant over. Thanks for letting me vent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItphQzsGKHw
FLY on Wallstreet: Would love to hear some more of your historic trading stories.
For example, today a contrarian investing – friend of mine reminded me of the dot-com time he shorted a bullshit internet stock at 32 (after he had ridden it up), heavily on margin, only to watch it gap up to 49 in the overnight session. Sick. (it came up because he’s been trying to catch the financials for a big rally for the last 2 weeks – similar sickening feeling).
You’ve mentioned how you, early in your career, turned 6k into 250k (or something like that). Or how you dumped a ton in the dot com crash, only to come back. These stories are fascinating, even more so in times like this.
Anyway we can read some more?
Can’t hurt to ask.
Boomer nice outlook….funny now the crowded trade is becoming who gives shit I’ll buy GE because if it goes in the crapper we all will follow.
everything will be local. No more money wizards…so sorry.
Changing $500
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqHJqpeCEBc&NR=1
But wait, there’s more…. today the dow was moving between 6664.22 and 6661.33 for awhile. I saw it right before my very eyes. The antichrist has you by the balls. You are fucked.
Only a little while until the crazies can post
Funny, mrkcbill. Don’t kick me in the nuts, please.
5985, all in.
I’m with Moober (which is a sentence I never would have imagined writing in the dark days before I found IBC). The markets spent months (mostly) ignoring a steady stream of bad news. We hit a tipping point and are now in the process of pricing it in along with the current bad news. We’ll probably overshoot to the downside, which I am hoping is above 600. If we go lower after this leg, it will probably be a slow grind. No apocalypse.
However, just in case I’m wrong, I’m pricing shotguns. Doesn’t hurt to be “fully hedged.”
Oh, I’m “fully hedged.” No doubt.
I would be buying here if this was an ordinary economic downturn, but a black swan flew in and pooped all over the world economy. It has only been about 6 months since the Lehman bankruptcy that started the credit system freeze, but events have moved rapidly down hill. It really appears that the train is off the tracks – no slowdown or missfiring of the engine – a system breakdown. I may be wrong but I will act as if I am correct until proven wrong. This country has poor quality leaders who are making bad decisions and the national debt and the interest on it will be an anchor or albatross around the neck of the economy for a very long time. Whatever the future, it is unlikely to be like a few years ago – a “golden” era for me.
Anon – If I’m to believe any conspiracy theory, it is to think that this depression mania is further consolidating the world’s wealth in fewer and fewer hands. That’s what this is all about. A shake down of epic proportions.
your a tard. that has always been happening. if you really want some conspiracies look into the war on terrorism being a coverup for the anti-gravity race. then watch the gary mckinnon interviews and some 2012 history channel shows.
Moober – Great rant. Thanks. I guess sometime in the future (who knows when) we’ll be calling the bears “beartards” instead of calling the bulls “bulltards”.