iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

Rally or Die

None of you bozos can hold a candle to “The Fly.” Look at my positions in WNR, ISRG and GLW and understand you are not in the same league as me. I’m over here, putting some money to work in some macro etf’s, but tentative, since GE is in the process of death spiraling to zero.

Watch GE and let it be your tell. All of the ingredients for a monster rally are present, minus our largest corporation on the verge of clownish failure. How stupid is this?

As you know, especially my cooler friends on PPT, I have an extensive list of stocks, ready for purchase. Should that fucker GE go green today, Senor Tropicana is allocating another 30% of his assets to longs. If GE continues to slide, well then, I might just take my ball and go home—eliminating most of my positions and raising my cash levels to over 90%.

In short, we are at the crossroads. Watch closely.

UPDATE:
Due to GE slide, I halted all new buys.

UPDATE II: Due to GE‘s cocksucking weakness, I booked profits in WNR and GLW, selling at $12+ and $10.50+ respectively. My cash position is now north of 80%. My only shorts are in REW and DRR. And, moreover, my longs are in JRJC, ISRG, TNA and CY.

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41 comments

  1. mrkcbill

    Jed has a do it yourself Full Colonic kit from Walgreens

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  2. j

    Just read new report out from CS that GE is contemplating a capital raise.

    Fly if they are doing that and the stock in falling because of dilution reasons wouldn’t that make the GE not as bad as it appears?

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  3. The Fly

    J

    Yes. However, I am afraid people think GE is another BAC or C.

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  4. TraderCaddy

    Agreed.
    I have had GE open in a separate window for three days now.
    Every ten minutes I say to myself: “Self buy some of that crap stock.”
    I then slap myself in the face and say: “Don’t be an ass. Wait.”

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  5. cybtropic

    Unbelieveable, ONE stock killing the rally.

    Market better hope for a GE reversal today or else.

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  6. Juice

    kudos to The Cubs & his follow GE call.

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  7. jeff

    Fly – why are you a bull in the biggest crash?

    And have you seen the price of rib eyes?

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  8. mrkcbill

    Dick Bove….GE generational Buy of a Lifetime!!!!!

    Is this the Doug Kass rally!!!!!

    Alright Tim gonna speak today!!!!

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  9. Jed

    mrkcbill wears his Santa Claus suit on St. Pat’s Day

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  10. Dividend Cut Done; Concerns over Credibility,
    Capital Raise & GECC Remain
    ?
    This afternoon GE’s Board of Directors announced a reduction in the
    quarterly dividend to $.10 from $.31 commencing in 2H09. We’ve been on
    the record for some time saying a dividend cut made sense. In light of the
    Board’s disclosure two weeks ago, the decision to cut the dividend shouldn’t
    come as a surprise. The old adage better late than never comes to mind here
    and we’re relieved the Board finally made the decision to cut the dividend. The
    size of the cut is probably a bit larger than we were expecting but several
    investors have asked why not cut it further? This cut will free up $9B of
    additional capital that we suspect in the near to medium term will reside in cash
    on the parent company’s balance sheet. We do not view M&A activity as a likely
    use of these funds. The ~4% yield remains attractive relative to peers.
    ?
    GECC & mgmt credibility are keeping people on sidelines, even down here.
    Press release states currently GE does not have any plans to raise more equity.
    Currently there is no need to raise equity given what GE has done to shore up its
    liquidity and the recent capital infusion into GECC but devil’s advocates have
    asked us why not just do the capital raise, put the money away for a rainy day
    and get the concerns off the table? Gvien where we are today, it’s interesting
    food for thought at the very least.
    ?
    Key question is whether GE will emerge stronger from this downturn and
    cutting the dividend is the first step to making this a possibility. Our bias
    here is to be more positive than negative. Our SOP on a P/E, EV/Sales and
    EV/EBITDA basis supports a valuation of the Manufacturing biz in the $14-$15
    range which given current stock price implies losses at GECC in the $5-6B+
    range, something that seems excessive to us even given the challenging
    backdrop. We do not believe that GE’s manufacturing biz is permanently
    impaired in any way. They are good franchises with leading market positions.
    Many have high margin aftermarket revenue streams. NBCU continues to
    outperform its peers. Market cap. (US$ m) 93,240.21
    Enterprise value (US$ m) 102,157.21

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  11. Braveflaps

    TC,

    I’ve been doing the same thing but now have GE on ignore.

    Like watching the Enterprise go down…

    Sickening.

    Plus I didn’t get filled at 8.5 on my usual bank of KIM short.

    And now I have friends who are losing six figure employment who will be lucky to find a job in the mid-fives.

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  12. Lady Guenevere

    Regarding GE once resistance gets dispersed and they rectify things and then are seen to hold steady….I believe they will grow and move back up.

    I do not believe GE will go bankrupt.

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  13. TheArtist

    Prepare for CNBC to spend the remainder of the day spouting out false rumors and lies to try to prop up GE…….that is as soon as the writers get the bullshit fuckery scripts written.

    They right now are scrambling on the phone trying to find some cocksucker that is willing to come on and say he feels “GE at these levels is a solid buy and we are buying here” (and under his garlic breath…”of course thank god it’s other peoples money, not mine, ha ha ha)

    just think of what will happen when it hits 4.99 and all the pension funds and mutual funds have to dump it.

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  14. mrkcbill

    Jed carries thermos full of Dunkin Donuts Hot Hot Coffee

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  15. Shitface

    If GE goes bankrupt, does CNBC go off the air?

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  16. Keith Olbermann

    Fuck man I just got the call from Immelt.

    I’m fired 🙁

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  17. J

    Why the fuck would a firm that makes great margins in plane engines, medical equipment and solid tech (no namby pamby shit) want to sell car loans to deabeats?

    I really just don’t get it.

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  18. mrkcbill

    GE….break that pig up…

    Washing Machine Repo’s up huge

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  19. Shitface

    Anybody? Anybody?

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  20. cybtropic

    Fact is, with such a big GE drop, market should be down 300 points at least. We still up 60.

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  21. TraderCaddy

    GE light bulb repos are up huge also.

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  22. mrkcbill

    j

    when the music plays you dance

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  23. AlphaLobo

    Just posted in the peanut gallery on GE…click on chart to see the entire post.

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  24. T MOE

    Rally looks weak. I was expecting a rally today also. I covered most of my shorts yesterday and Monday. I am sitting on 90% cash waiting for the next point of attack. Still holding GS shorts, a little SRS, a little TWM, a little DRR. I may get short SPY again if there is a big push today to the up side and it starts to fade.

    I still believe that there are really no buyers present. I am up 29% YTD. So for all of you short seller haters, put that in your pipe and smoke it.

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  25. TheArtist

    Shitface, if GE goes bankrupt, CNBC will be sold to the only bidder, Al Jazerra and they will fire everyone and replace them with Indians.

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  26. The Fly

    LOL

    CNBC to be sold to Al Jazeera. I must write a mock interview for that.

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  27. J

    Alphal

    You can’t use long term charts to plot a support on a stock as you would need to discount for inflation to get a real picture.

    $5.90 in 1990 on a FV would mean a stock price of $11.43.

    That’s the equivalent value in today’s dollars adjusted for a measly 3.5% inflation rate.

    It’s way below that which means real potential trouble.

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  28. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    GE is in a death spiral. AAA has got to be cut and Imelt must go immediately.

    I gotta be honest with you, this is one of the most troublesome things I have seen yet. This could be the biggest disaster in the history of the market.

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  29. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Ok I am hearing from one desk that this is a forced fund selling GE and this was coordinated with the PPT buying in the market this morning. Be careful out there.

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  30. TraderCaddy

    Here comes GE on a comeback try.
    For any bulls left I hope it’s not like the NY Mets going into a September.

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  31. the prof

    I hope I don’t sound like a snob but it’s as I, rather than as me.

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  32. T MOE

    GE may be in a death spiral and may have 8 billion risked, but they also have 49 billion in cash. Shorts will continue to push it down until Imelt gets ousted, and until the sell off some assets. Problem is, who has the money to buy?

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  33. Shitface

    I hope Fox Biz News buys CNBC. Fires all of their fucking people. Well, except for their programmers that put graphics up that say “global rally upon us?” then, at the end of the day say “Dow drops %4.3” Love it.

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  34. AlphaLobo

    J – there are many things you can not do..but I beleive that this will work, and as of the post it is and that is what I can do, pick stocks and levels to enter/exit.

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  35. cybtropic

    Why is TNA so much weaker?

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  36. T MOE

    As I watch this short covering rally I dance as I timed my covering perfectly

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UeCRY1wciA

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  37. cybtroipc

    As long as GE doesn’t sell off anymore, or just stays flat from here, would be great.

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  38. TraderCaddy

    The chips action the last few weeks seem to suggest an economy bounce in about six months.
    SMH etf has held up better than most (on a relative basis) and seems to indicate a trough in sales.
    A confirmation will come when the economic news get worse and yet the chips can still go up.
    It would be a classic.

    If it happens we can thank Mao and the Chinese.

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  39. TGiR

    Pure chatter but ISRG and JNJ in talks….

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  40. TGiT

    Now hearing $122 a share, again, chatter…

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