Barring a huge move, I am done for the day. I took advantage of weakness in SRS and DUG, in order to add to my positions. At the same time, I am very tentative to sell out of any longs.
As an aside, it is amazing to see commercial Re stock draw investor interest. For example: FRT has very little cash and $375 million in debt due in 2009. As of now, it would be impossible to roll that debt over. Moreover, if they were to raise money via secondary offering, it would be dilutive as a mother fucker.
Within CRE, dozens of firms face similar, if not greater, risks. In no way would I be a buyer of commercial RE stocks, especially while the credit markets are closed to them.
The text book says the market should be down 300-400 points, based upon GE getting the “homo hammer of certain death.”
However, for whatever reason, investors are optimistic over a pending GE crisis.
Fucking idiots.
I refuse to sell FAS, UYM or even PFG, for fear of late day shenanigans. My best guess on the future direction of the market: next week, we dive lower, based upon worse than expected numbers coming out of big oil.
As of 3:00pm, I am 40% long, 50% short and 10% cash.
As an aside Update: California has 2 months of cash left and a 9.3% unemployment rate. Can you say “higher sales taxes”?
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There is still too much optimism. Call it the Obama effect. We haven’t seen the bottom of this thing yet.
I have a cache of cash waiting for direction. My “portfolio” is turning into an index fund it seems. How about those “inflection” points that seem to occur intraday? WTF? Computer program trading?
Psssst…..climb me.
For some here being bullish on GE at this level, from what they “said” today……so soon you forget that back on March 6th Bear Stearns announced publicly they “had enough money” to weather the storm…….on March 17th they were bankrupt……11 days later (4 of the 11 being sat and sunday)
Fly,
On a “we’re all going to hell” day like today, what is the PPT saying about the ETFs you’re refusing to sell for fear of late day fuckery, like FAS and UYM?
Guess I’m asking how you determine when to you override PPT buy/sell signals. Trading experience or recent news that isn’t captured in PPT variables?
Does anyone realize that if banks drop around 15% on Monday, FAS will be < $5 ?
FWIW – Here is what Cramer had to say about GE this morning…taking the other side of Cramer’s trades has been $$, However, he does buy into the teeth of most of the sell offs and flips into the rips for quick scalps…
General Electric (GE:NYSE) reported in-line earnings this morning, yet the stock is indicated lower. I will remain a long-term investor because a lot of GE’s issues are macro- related, and the company is taking the steps necessary to increase its reserves and shore up its finance division. The industrial piece remains solid and very well positioned for when the global economy improves.
The company reported in line with its guidance, posting earnings of 37 cents a share (36 cents excluding a one-time gain), which was in line with the Street. Most important, the company reiterated its commitment to its dividend for 2009 and the AAA credit rating.
The liquidity position remains strong, with consolidated cash at $48 billion at the end of the year vs. $16 billion in the third quarter. GE Capital reduced its commercial paper commitment, lowered its leverage to 7-to-1 and posted earnings of $8.6 billion in 2008. It also reiterated its 2009 guidance to earn around $5 billion in this division. The company expects the challenges in its finance unit to continue — and they could get worse — but it increased its reserves by $500 million in consumer and $400 million in commercial. Total reserves stand at $5.3 billion. The environment remains difficult, but very few finance companies are able to post earnings at all, let alone $8.6 billion.
Infrastructure and Media grew 10%, and its guidance of 0% to 5% is also in line with expectations. Total backlog grew 9% to $15 billion in 2008. Orders fell 6% in infrastructure from last year but were up 1% sequentially from the third quarter, which is a positive. And industrial sales were up 7%. The company plans to take out $1 billion in costs in 2009 and will continue to move the mix toward 70%/30% industrial/finance business.
The overall environment remains tough, but the company has set the bar low and the stock price valuation reflects a very depressed scenario. This remains a solid company that continues to dominate the infrastructure industry. The financial services unit remains under pressure with limited visibility, but that is well known.
There were very few operational surprises in the quarter and the transparency has improved. The company is well reserved, liquidity is strong and the restructuring and cost-cutting efforts will help to offset the macro weakness. The stock is trading at 9.4 times earnings, and the yield remains very attractive. I will stay patient for the long term with this story, because it is positioned to get back to solid growth as the environment improves.
Bottom line:
Americans are getting bored with the end of the world scenario!
We’re on the verge of popping the negativity bubble!
Goodnight bears!
Fly!! Thank you for reminding me how to trade with my balls as well as my brains!
Lie detector going real haywire today.
Selling 1/2 my NG for a 30% gain in 24 hours.
Again, it’s important to see the close on GE. If it closes above $12.24 that is a positive technical sign. It’ll form a candle with a long tail below support. Much like Mr. Thain on his commode.
Fly Jr. = Cramer???????
Henry–
What does the level of boredom people have with the end of the world scenario have to do with the price of guns? No amount of optimism is going to replace these multi-trillion dollar bailouts.
It ain’t over until Helga sings Wagner (pronounced “Vogner”, for you opera illiterates).
CAP,
Make a BOLD Prediction for next week.
Nice call on gold Henry
.
Anon-
You sold out of FAZ right?
There’s a growing divergence between the market and it’s reaction to bad news. The news is growing exponentially worse yet the “hogan bottom” is persistent.
Just saying maybe the market is telling you something about the future.
no way I’d be long over the weekend given the recent Friday AH bad news roll-outs and GE shitting the money bed into the close.
100% cash right now.
I hold FAZ and SDS and some FAS – if FAS wants to run at some time – I will jump on board.
We will have some new partnerships come Monday or next week. All kinds of back-room shenanigans are going on an especially on the weekends on golf courses and country club steam rooms.
.
Fly: what does the PPT say on AFAM?
come on Moober, take a chance……
RY…. take a look at the chart oh my…Canadas largest bank …in da tank
Expectations are “big oil” shits the earnings next week…what if they paint a less ugly picture….?
RY…. take a look at the chart oh my…Canadas largest bank …in da tank..news out on Dow Jones
dupe
Next weeks earnings will be abysmal. Need I say more?
The surprise factor and how people spin the numbers may be the only hope of not going back down to test 7,500.
But eventually, test it we will.
If I were going to take a chance, long BOOM would be it. $21 to $11 in 8 trading days. Unfortunately, sell volume is increasing. If BOOM sees single digits I will taste a little. Tastes like French cigarette butts, btw. A taste I know all too well.
Fly, you are absolutely right that the market should be getting bitched smacked with GE trading near its lows, but everyone is looking at the bailout…I mean multiple bailouts coming. There is so much powder on the sidelines, that most investors are acting irrationally and hoping for the best. Remember most investors are buyers only, rather than traders, who trade on both sides, and act rationally. There is a saying, “being rational in an irrational market will get you killed.” This is exactly what is happening. Bottom feeders are chasing their irrational highs.
Moober-
Best handle ever…makes me laugh every time!
What are you going to give up for lent this year?
Big oil scaes and point…
Kinder Morgan KMP came in well under analyst yesterday…but yet…has been green since…
The year of the rat is almost done. Let’s hope the ox brings us better.
Look at that, CAP sucks his own dick … again!
What a fucking joke that guy is! He has one talent, and we all know what it is.
Btw, an OX is usually a castrated bull…
Buy Jones Soda (JSDA) on this pullback ! It’s made with CAAAAAAAAAAAAANE SUGAR now!! I’m all in !!
🙂
Stock Market’s Next Bounce May Be Lower, Not Higher
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28813930
UK banks coming out with bad news this weekend.
I just got a text from my friend “Vagina Pad”.
Short HBC RBS and so on….
DONNY – I take it you are holding FAS over the weekend. Good luck with that 🙂 Come Sunday evening and news gets bad and you start hearing stuff about BAC C WFC JPM GE and liquidity issues and balance sheet problems and then the Asian markets are down 5% across the board and the Dow futures are down -400. Then we’ll see who’s sucking whose dick.
Donny/CAP Grudge Match 2009
This time, it’s personal.
Nobody gets out alive.
Update:
GLD btfo over it’s long term downtrend line.
Second update: it wasn’t supposed to do that.
________
mrkcbill – I like the handle too. Self-deprecating humor is my style. Thanks. However, I may have made a submission to the urban dictionary you will find interesting (see #2)
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=moober
I should probably give up giving stuff up for Lent. That would be easier. Haven’t decided yet.
Have a good weekend.
I had a huge day today thanks to multiple wins in ROM, CHK and most of all DXO. I also entered an XOM short and a DUG position at the same place as the godly one.
DUG Limit 24.44 — — 14:19:38 01/23/09
I want to pair my DXO position with short the companies. Oil can sprint higher on global bullshit but these companies must report
badhorrible numbers next week due to the past weakness.I am not looking to play the downside but to hedge my upside longs. I personally think we can move the market higher on any weekend government fuckery that might take place. Off to eat some food.
I’m deep in 2 things right now: HAT (TSE), and DUG. HAT will rock and shock within 2 weeks. I’ll be selling DUG over $30 next week.
Fly
should obama’s PPT rescind mark to market, does Comm RE fare any better? i say no. in addition time to stop using SRS, that thing looks and acts like Mickey Rourke taking the hammer of death from Clubber Lang. I am resigned to use puts on FRT and ESS
just like you said the market should of been down 3 – 4 hundred and it wasent whaats that tell you you stupid fuck fuck your own bag of golf balls we will grind or way to 900 moron keep addind to your losers i sold you short damn you shur arnt the britest bulb on the chandeler
crack_shack: What the fuck is wrong with you? You better stay off that crack main.
Interesting graph:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8349edae969e2010536eb4897970c-popup
Note: resizes your window
Ass Napkin, you a have a game changing gift that in more social surroundings I’d refer to as “conversational terrorism”. Dangerous to accompany you to a church function, but you are able to cheer up the doomed and take out lurking douchebags with a single sentence.
Much appreciated.
Fly Jr., are you aware that your name is emergency medical code for felcher?
So sorry.
Slurpee…
GGN BTFO and a nice divie (+10%) …. betcha Gabelli is up in Baron’s roundtable this weekend!
Downside: Closed End Fund
Embattled mortgage giant Freddie Mac will ask the Treasury Department for $30 billion to $35 billion to keep it from posting a negative net worth for the fourth quarter of 2008, the company reported in a securities filing Friday.
http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2009/01/19/daily85.html
go2mars
What is HAT? Can’t find a ticker on the TSE for it. Why do you like it?
more A+ posts today, fly. good stuff.
gold is up to something, no doubt.
today felt like a rickshaw being pulled by a one-legged cyclist. for the love of lady g and sycophants, what the fuck is going on? for starters we had homorific earnings from google which sent internet analysts into a tea bagging tizzy, once again anointing the darling $1000 price targets based on cash flows 12 years out. and….thats about it folks. every other goddam bellwether in sight was flat to negative for most of the fucking day. wmt, kft, mo, pfe, g muthafuckin e. lord help my a$$. pikers and punters and hussies too, is it me or is NITE simply en fuego?
in short, a total fuckfest. still in bloody fxp. long at 810 short at 830. easy right?
it is amasing how well market held up with all bad news – GE, MSFT and the market is still over 8K on DJ and over 830 on SP500. I can not imagine what bad news over the weekend can derail this. On the other side – if there is a shreder of positive news – market will rally hard, at least 200 points on DJ and 20 on SP500. Forget Freddie news – no one give a sh*t about FRE, everybody knows it is done. GE news is already out, i would not expect anything bad (like them asking for bailout funds) until next quarter. If anything, the risk is for the upside melt up.
Monty,
It’s a Uranium company that struck rich extremely rich finds, and is right now drilling their main zone. Hathor Resources. $3 and change per share right now. I’ll exit half at $4.00 and hang on to the rest until they get bought.
nice call on the golf courses lady g, im sure the weather is just gorgeous.
Left the sideline and I’m in long 65% today as of the open. Half were financials.
Whole damn porfolio bulged by the close.
I might end up regretting it, but what the fuck.
and speaking of the gayness in commercial re: who in god’s name is buying RWT’s offering?
Trust everybody
Shake That Monky – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kj-JGdyWt4A
something just off the wire for you guys….Bloomberg just had on their bottom ticker = ” absent a miracle” Hovnanian Homes is soon bankrupt, there is zero cash flow., but builder denies difficulty”
so, with that, as one home builder falls, do the others follow?
something to put into the mix for next week…
Shake That Monkey – http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98fa_lil-jon-ft-too-short-shake-that-mon_music
Re: “gold is up to something,” Heh, it sure is, about 900 USD/ounce. You think it might have anything to do with OBamaNation’s “let’s print our way out of this one” solution? The gorilla’s gonna getcha. USD will soon be exactly the same value as the post WWI German Mark, and that is NOT taking into account inflation since 1918. GM, Chrysler, Ford? No, the US wants us all to buy their FIAT! Bonne chance!
is there another jg on the lines?
or is that just my angelic twin?
i’m pouring out a little liquor for lady g here…
drinking large amounts (footnote: fly) of red.
OTTONE I to be exact, reminds me of ottnot. hope fatherhood is treating you well brother.
UCO all over the map today…looks like it (and USO) are trying to put in a nice W bottom…here’s to higher prices…
go2mars,
Hat.v looks good. Thanks.
go2mars Says:
Monty,
It’s a Uranium company that struck rich extremely rich finds, and is right now drilling their main zone. Hathor Resources. $3 and change per share right now. I’ll exit half at $4.00 and hang on to the rest until they get bought.
********************************************
Hat is something you can go shit in.
“Uranium company”. Try Canadian MINING SCAM.
Canadian Junior Uranium EXPLORATION co’s are where it’s at !!
I bought MGA.V, TAS.V, and will look at HAT.V to add to my Jamba Jamba Jamba tenbagger and my Jones Soda canesugar superstock..
jg-where did you come from? Is that initials for a regular here we all know?
I had my glass of wine yesterday with dinner.
Busy working on taxes and getting 1099 out the door.
Will be watching Battle Star Galatica tonight.
I think its lame that the 5th Cylon was Saul Tigh’s dead wife- whats up with that?
It makes no sense as clearly Starbuck is some kind of Cylon since she found her DEAD BODY in a crashed viper. So she must be a new copy downloaded with all the memories of the old one.
I am also watching the Australian Open as well. I think Melbourne would be a great place to live.
.
Before the bell Monday,, CAT misses big time and helps set up yet another money making bounce.. Cat will over shoot and recover, yet another chance to be paid twice..
thats the way it is………………….
NOV steadily moving up.Looking 2 dump it around $29
Galatica
—————-
hey lady did you just made spelling error?
i been here lady g. i been here.
ps lady gizzl: i heard fed kicked some a$$ at Australian, did not see it. when i was informed, i thought THE FED had taken some drastic measures, in true geekazoid fashion. lord. can not wait to see a rafa-fed rematch at wimby. what say ye lady g?
Hey guys & gals,
As I said last Friday, I just got to Daytona for the Rolex 24 tomorrow. Thought I’d check in and see what was going on.
To sum up the week all 3 major indexes were DOWN again for the 3rd week in a row. Tuff on the bulltards. I had a dream last night and it was date stamped with the week of 1/26/09 on a picture of a huge field as far as the eye could see and on it were millions of DEAD bulls. Be back Tuesday. Have a great weekend!
Gee Dog:
Hurry back. So we have LG telling us not to be afraid of fear and the Dog telling us about his dreams of death and destruction. Can’t wait for Tuesday.
I wonder if he even knows the discussion about hyena birth techniques was really about him?
Hilarious
http://www.236.com/video/2009/saudi_prince_asks_for_bailout_11074.php
Think what you like about the deflation/ inflation story, however a few things a true. It is impossible to have deflation in the current fiat context long term because the Fed has unlimited printing press abilities.
Following on from that even if you believe that we don’t have inflation now but later on we need to understand the jam the fed is putting itself in in terms of being able to prevent inflation later on. It can’t.
Here’s why.
The fed is presently building up its balance sheet with total crap. In order to swing things around to prevent inflation it will have to be able to take it balance sheet down by selling that crap. It simply won’t be able to fast enough so that it wouldn’t cause a crash in the credit markets. This why gold is going up to levels we don’t believe over the next few years even if the stock market gets a white hot rod up the backside.
Even if the Fed raises rates, it still may not be able to prevent inflation as inflation is a quantity of money problem and interest rates may be unable to stem the problem as interest rate targeting will not control the amount of money in the system.
Gold seems to wanna head back over $1,000 which then will really make life interesting.
I have a target of 2,000 oz. over the next few years and 1200 for this year.
Now if you really wanna play for better returns it may be worth buying gold against sterling which is what I have done for a portion of my position.
You do that buy simply buying gold and selling pounds.
gold appreciation against pretty much everything was extremely bullish this week. The only trouble is that you really do need to weather big corrections and not get blasted out of the water.
One way to do that is to simply treat an allocation of gold as a long term investment and no matter what you will always have a certain portion of the long term investment portfolio in gold. Say 5%.
Great Video Fly!
Here’s another. This is CAP with his two 10″ buddies, from his recent Las Vegas fling. CAP is the pink one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO3On8PQa6I
Hey DD, isn’t there a webcam at that race? Post an address and time and you can walk up to it and give everyone the finger.
jg….dont mess with Roger…he’s my man. I only wish I was his girfriend…hes got class, style and amazing tennis talent!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGWPNWvBWiI&feature=related
So far he has not had much opposition, he made toast out of the guy all the girls are in love with -Safin
We will have to see tho what Andy Murray does…hes the big X-factor who could win this thing.
jg….dont mess with Roger…he’s my man. I only wish I was his girfriend…hes got class, style and amazing tennis talent!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGWPNWvBWiI&feature=related
So far he has not had much opposition, he made toast out of the guy all the girls are in love with – Safin
We will have to see tho what Andy Murray does…hes the big X-factor who could win this thing.
jg I love Roger he’s my man! Classy, stylish, well-mannered and an amazing graceful tennis player.
http://www.insidesocal.com/outinhollywood/roger_that.jpg
He took Safin out with no problem, now we just have to deal with Andy Murray I think he is just as dangerous as Rafa.
Murray has yet to win a Slam but he has beaten both Fed and Nadal.
.
Ditto what “jSays”
This market reminds me of an old 70’s Cheech & Chong routine…
Hmmmm….what’s that?
Hey, I dunno, man
Well…hey, man….it looks like dogshit.
Yeah, man, and it smells like dogshit, too, man.
Here, let me taste it.
Yep, that’s definitely dogshit!
Wow, man….good thing we didn’t step in it!!
Fly:
I am pissing myself laughing at that video. I’m seriously fucking giddy. Ohh SHIT that is fuckin hilarious. Michael Caines cum frozen from the height of his career!
Tears are rolling down my face from laughter!!
You have a dogs brain.
A car that runs on just shit from the ground.
rofl, the beads are too effing ggod.
I’m not sure what’s funnier – the video, or the fact that I find myself on the j plan to greater prosperity: “…for better returns it may be worth buying gold against sterling which is what [j and Flaps have] done for a portion of [their] position[s].”