In my opinion, anyone who uses exclamatory statements, verbally or in writing, is mentally ill. As an aside, I just had an epiphany and felt like sharing it with you internet leeches aka fucking ingrates.
I’m going to make a few shocking predictions, so buckle the fuck up!!!
Here goes, wish me luck!
Stocks are going to get the dog kicked out of them in 2009. To highlight my reasons, “The Fly” will write an online book, as to why stocks belong in the sewer hole. The book will be no shorter than 1,000 pages and will be accompanied by various government statistics and sweet fancy charts that will support my egregious argument.
Just kidding. “The Fly” doesn’t have time to write books and shit, assholes. I’ve been too busy punching holes in my sheet rock, thanks to the inane trading behaviour [sic] of SRS. For the love of God and other mythical creatures, I am sure the devil and other fantastic bedtime story characters, are manipulating it.
With this in mind, I have the patience of a medieval tax collector when it comes to “getting my share” in the markets. I will wait you fuckers out longer than you can even fathom to imagine. I will wait you out, long X 50 trillion.
I’m gonna short more XOM. I’m gonna short more VNO. Hell, I am going to sell short all Pacific coast banks. I’m gonna sell short NOV again and RIG. I’m gonna sell short gold stocks, like LIHR. For fucks sake, I am going to sell short the world and hope my enemies fall into deep, deep sinkholes.
The point of this post is to make you, the internet stock people, well aware of my intentions for 2009. I don’t believe in fairy tales, such as fat fucks falling down chimneys or flying homos swapping baby teeth for cash.
And, I don’t believe in governments ability to create a marketplace.
So there!
UPDATE: This is poor.
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Fuck Cramer. CNBC needs to put you on tv and pay you millions.
Fly = God
Fly Show coming soon. Shhh. Don’t tell anyone.
Fly says:
“You wouldn’t like me when I am angry”
P.S. JP Morgan will dictate this market short term
Fly. You need to have a show on the Food Network and show that Bobby Flay what kind of an apprentice he is. A food challenge for 2″ ribeyes.
Long Live FLY! … I just hope being short works for tomorrow. The short term consensus seems to be that tomorrow will be an up day (mainly due to 5 consecutive up days)
Futures are positive, and though it is hard to dispute that stocks going down sometimes this spring for now SP pulled itself up to the support. Owning SRSs and FAZs can be very painfull. I really, really would not like to be short right now.
Some info on the new 2010 Prius.
Great car for the fucking retard parents that leave babies and pets in death traps. Plus, 50 mpg.
“Toyota also will offer options such as a moonroof with solar panels to power the ventilation system. The system uses an electrically powered air circulation fan that doesn’t need the engine to work. It prevents the interior air temperature from rising while the vehicle is parked.
The ventilation system also can be remotely operated, so drivers can adjust the interior temperature before getting inside. Toyota says this remote air conditioning system is an industry first.”
btw, I’m staying short!
XOM because it can be shorted, in copious quantities.
Short the entire western world, especially west coast banks, because they are FUBAR!!
!!!!!!
goddamn this market to hell.
i think the one, big fear to being short this summer is any kind of flattening in housing prices. the slightest uptick would send the market up 2000 in 2 weeks, if the current psychology continues to prevail.
it’s a guarantee that funds will try to bid up commodities again this spring. everyone always goes back to try what worked a second time. they way MOS, POT, etc., are moving, it looks like the clowns are getting a head start.
God wanted me to remind you that marketplace is one word.
SRS is a god damn nail on the chalk board. for fucks sake why does it shit itself, real estate is garbagio…
On the flip side, here’s some info on my local Lambo dealership. Formerly ranked #1 in the world.
Accused of $12 mil theft. Unloaded (backdoor) 54 lambos in 8 days. No wonder I’ve been seeing alot of these on my block of late.
http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2009/01/13/vw-accuses-lamborghini-oc-of-12-million-theft/8100/
Unloaded (backdoor) 54 lambos in 8 days. No wonder I’ve been seeing alot of these on my block of late.
S&P 500 = 820 tomorrow…. Wed. before OPEX has averaged over 50 points down since Sept.
What is the meaning of this statement?
“I will wait you out, long X 50 trillion.”
Not quite following.
Re: Madoff. I think they are trying to crack a ring of conspirators, perhaps reaching across the firm, other managers, and even the SEC. Just a thought.
“The Fly Says:
Fly Show coming soon. Shhh. Don’t tell anyone.”
What? Seriously? When? That would kick fucking arse!
Details?
The Fly is God.
2009 will be the year of
Robocop – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krxnf4WG4qA
Mdawsz – it means no matter how much playdo money the fed prints, he won’t buy it.
SRS is English for FXP.
All the assholes are short. Tomorrow should be a solid up day.
What does the PPT say about PLD and its 11 Billion in debt?
What performed worse in 2008? FXP or Cramer’s Charitable Trust? The only “charity” that piece of shit helps are the people that sold him their shares.
I will send one of my mythical minions down to smite thee for blasphemic apistlizationing, in the form of a short squeeze.
How many times have I told thee; don’t fuck with mythological creatures, just in case there is some truth in them; and if there be, you may get your teeths punched in.
To quote the Fly Master
“I’m going to make a few shocking predictions, so buckle the fuck up!!!”
Such a gas!
I can dig it
shoog a diggi
wiggi diggi
iggi diggi
http://www.websiteoutlook.com/www.ibankcoin.com
Is this true?…
The Fly says:
“……I don’t believe in fairy tales, such as fat fucks falling down chimneys or flying homos swapping baby teeth for cash”
Okay…
How about fat homo fucks with big tails telling you to stick it in their chimney stacks without using your teeth??
huh??
Fly show February.
I just HAD to look up that song..sorry for the desecration of the lyric.
Friends of Distinction (Grazin’ in the Grass)
It sure is mellow grazin’ in the grass
(grazin’ in the grass is a gas, baby, can you dig it?)
What a trip just watchin’ as the world goes past
I can dig it, he can dig it, she can dig it,
we can dig it, they can dig it, you can dig it
Oh, let’s dig it. Can you dig it, baby? I can dig it,
he can dig it, she can dig it, we can dig it,
they can dig it, you can dig it Oh, let’s dig it.
Can you dig it, baby?
well it’s late and no one will read this but American Apparel just was on CNBC and they are opening stores in China as we speak…..just like I thought….these asshole americans are trying to get he higher end brand american labels into china and American Apparel is paying the chinese the exact same wage per hour as the workers are paid here……this just on CNBC with Melissa Lee…..
So if these asshole have started that shit, just like I wrote days ago here, the chinese in their quest for being equal to us have just got a taste of making what we make per hour…..
won’t be long before riots in the streets in China from factory workers still being paid .40 cents an hour for pay raises……one thing leads to another…….
China is working their way to our level, it is real and has started…..only thing is, it will implode on them.
China is moving too fast into the modern world….over building cities with skyscrapers, putting in american style malls, wearing french and american fashion styles….all too fast……
Listen, NYC was not built in 20 years, it has taken 350 years to build NYC to what it looks like today (less two really big buildings)
China, Dubai, India all on a fast track to implode and burn….too much, too fast…….the bigger they are the harder they fall……
China’s growth as of recent is just too much for them to absorb and sustain, key word, sustain……
nice to see your long “X” …50 trillion ?? cant be any doubt now on who is going to win the contest RC is having ..thats right fuckers i own it
I !!!
Am a BIG fan !!!
Of exclamatory statements !!!
Uhhhhh…fwiw !!!!!
.
Artist,
Brad Setser sez hot money hauling ass out of China:
…in December, the outflows were absolutely brutal….$70 billion plus in monthly hot only outflows … That’s huge. Annualized, it is well in excess of 10% of China’s GDP. Probably above 15% …
come on Fly..you have to be long in SOMETHING? wat is it?
I am long BAP, CLX, a little MOS, VCLK, a little AKAM, amongst others.
Longs are less than 7% of my holdings.
You might want to check out what happened to oil futures at 3:56 eastern before you get too short on energy for tomorrow. I don’t know shit but something funky happened at 3:56 eastern…a $7/barrel increase in a one minute time frame.
LIVE GAZA WEBCAM
http://switch3.castup.net/cunet/gm.asp?ai=386&ar=NanaTV01&dr=02:30:00%20-%202k%20-
I hear chickens, bombs, and trucks right now.
I’d tune into The Fly show! That would rock. I can see it like a reverse Cramer but with X-rated visuals and lots of swearing. Maybe a PPV style show. No matter. Would rock.
I’m waiting for a mid-night late thought post. Or Chart Addict to get back from the bars so I can get handle on how screwed tomorrow *may* be.
Citigroup moves towards break-up
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: January 13 2009 17:43 | Last updated: January 14 2009 00:32
Citigroup is to break itself up by separating higher risk US consumer finance and securities businesses from its global commercial banking operations in an attempt to ensure its survival.
People close to the situation said Citi would place unwanted assets and businesses worth more than $600bn – a third of its balance sheet – into a “non-core” unit to isolate them from healthier parts of the company.
http://tinyurl.com/9usaah
There is no good reason why SRS shouldn’t be 1000 now with the commercial real estate going the way of zombie town, but you have to respect the way its trading – like shit.
Nevermind…fucked up data in oil futures, it seems.
The Frog is with The Fly and The Dog (though less with Dog since he just says the same thing over and over which shows no real skill or creativity). SHORT EVERYTHING!!!
BTW if SRS goes to 300 I am buying a foreclosed home in Malibu.
BTW The Frog likes hyperbole
“Get Short, Stay Short”
… Obama-nomics 101.
the evil fade, AKA jim cramer must be on the ropes. A year after turning his viewers and readers penises inside out with his lame advice and old time stock picker three-card monty TV show, they are dropping the monthly charge at his site. Pal of mine called to cancel his sub, and they offered to lower the price by a Franklin, he balked– then offered even lower and they took it. I firmly believe this market will get better when CNBC cancels that show, and his clown act.
Your thesis blows chunks…
Devildog has been wrong since birth.
The devildog contrary indicator has red-lined.
no wonder this is an angry very aggressive website. It’s not our fault. It’s our mothers.
The most recent findings on the link between hormones and economics – the best traders are most responsive to testosterone and probably got exposed to lots of it in the womb (a characteristic apparently shared with athletes and musicians):
A new study has found that men who were programmed in the womb to be the most responsive to testosterone tend to be the most successful financial traders …
The new study was aimed at investigating whether an innate sensitivity to the hormone was also at work, with some men having essentially been born to be traders by having been sensitized to testosterone in the womb. The researchers studied 44 male traders in London involved in “high-frequency” or “noise” trading, which requires intensely scanning economic data to make very fast trades involving large amounts of money.
To determine the traders’ prenatal testosterone exposure, the researchers measured their “2D:4D ratio,” the relative lengths of the index and ring fingers on the right hand. Those exposed to higher levels of testosterone in the womb tend to have relatively longer ring fingers.
When the researchers looked at the traders’ profits over a 20-month period from 2004 to 2007, they found that the most experienced traders who had been exposed to the most testosterone in the womb earned about six times as much as those exposed the least. They also tended to have the longest careers, surviving about three years more on average …
The researchers also found that those exposed to the most prenatal testosterone tended to make the most money on days when the market was most volatile and decisions had to be made especially quickly. That indicates that in addition to the hormone’s tendency to boost confidence and increase the appetite for risk, the sheer mental ability enhanced by early testosterone exposure is probably a key factor. Earlier research had found that those exposed to higher prenatal testosterone as indicated by 2D:4D measurements tended to be better athletes and musicians.
Will Devildog be wrong again tomorrow? We shall see.
sure xom is out of whack, but since oil has bottomed, it will simply stay seemingly pricey indefinitely. the stock’s already demonstrated there’s no reason to sell it. the next move in oil is up. when doesn’t matter. you crazy people who think the chinese would all rather give up and go riot in the streets instead of finding some way to buy next year’s Chang Feng model are intensively ignoring history and the obvious. the cars will get bought and the oil burned. when doesn’t matter.
The Economy — Weak, But Not at Full Stop
Overnight markets were weaker in the wake of yesterday’s ugly performance on Wall Street. They were led lower by Japan, which dropped about 5%, as companies like Sony and Toshiba appear to be struggling with the strength in the yen (as well as economic weakness).
Preopening, our stock-index futures were indicating a decline of roughly 0.5%, “helped out” by disappointing news from Alcoa, though I think that people were also using Alcoa as a harbinger of what might be coming next for much of corporate America.
In addition, there were preannouncements of lowered expectations from Lexmark, KLA-Tencor, and a horrendous guide-down on the part of NVIDA — which projected that next quarter’s revenues would drop 40%-50% sequentially from this quarter. (The latter, by comparison, declined only 5% from the prior quarter.)
In any case, about half an hour into the session, NVDA and KLAC had turned positive (though not so Alcoa and LXK). The decline in the Alcoa was shrugged off and all the indices were positive, led by the Nasdaq, which was up 1% early on as I think it took cheer from the rally in KLA and NVDA. (By day’s end, they were both flattish as they ignored the news.)
Preannouncements Write the Macro News
I think we might use NVIDIA (and also other chip companies) as an example of what we might see in the near term for corporations, the economy, and the stock market. NVIDIA demonstrates (as will others) that for many companies, business more or less stopped in the fourth quarter. Thus, NVIDIA’s first-quarter guidance is particularly horrendous.
Now, as bearish as I’ve been on the economy, I never thought it would completely stop for a prolonged period of time. Thus, to the extent that it has sort of stopped, the stage is set for an economic bounce. If (when?) that bounce (however small) occurs, I think the bullish contingent will likely seize on it as a sign that the economy is recovering for real. (I don’t believe that will be the case, but I believe it will be interpreted that way.) That will probably happen (assuming the economy does bounce) sometime later in Q1or early in Q2.
To follow up on the question that I mulled last Tuesday — “As for the rally that’s currently under way, my thought is that it will either end more quickly than people expect (like now-ish), or last longer than they expect” — obviously that day was the end of it, as the near-term ugly corporate news and the 25% rally which had already occurred helped precipitate the vicious decline we’ve seen since then.
Mr. Market (Unlike Mr. Madoff) Doesn’t Wear a Monitoring Bracelet
Potentially, what we have now is a situation where the market may be squishy heading into the inauguration (pressured by the aforementioned bad news from corporate America). However, in the wake of the inauguration, given the fact that expectations have been lowered and the fact that by then we will be entering the no-news period, the stage may be set for a rally that might last longer, particularly if some economic activity begins to percolate.
If all that plays out, I suspect it will set up a very attractive shortselling opportunity, because ultimately I believe that the market will work much lower again. Then, later in the year, we will have a better opportunity to invest on the long side. Obviously, anything is possible. But that’s my current thinking on the most likely path for the market’s twist and turns.
Back to the baseball analogy that I used in the fourth quarter: I believe the financial crisis is still in the ninth inning (current problems with Citigroup notwithstanding). The real problems for the market this year will emanate from the economic crisis, which I believe is only in the third inning or so. However, at some point economic problems may restart a financial crisis, so we must remain alert to that possibility.
Folks will be inclined, for quite some time, to believe that the worst is over. Only after the worst isn’t over for a long time will they start to decide that the “worst” will never end. In any case, that’s getting quite a ways ahead of ourselves.) As for the funding crisis that lies ahead for the bond market and the dollar, people continue to act as though that game has not been scheduled.
Live Wires on Either Side
In terms of speculation, though I am beginning to feel like I have a roadmap that might work, I still don’t have enough confidence in my thesis to attempt to trade from the long side. Those folks looking to trade on the long side would be advised to do so judiciously. It also continues to seem pretty dicey to trade from the short side. (I have tossed on a couple of short positions, though I may eliminate them at any moment.) My goal for early in the year continues to be: Try not to get in trouble, and be patient while attempting to piece together some high-probability opportunities.
Returning to the action: The market struggled to stay in positive territory until lunchtime, when a selloff ensued and we traded back to/slightly through the opening lows. From there we bounced a bit, before rallying back to close unchanged, plus or minus, depending on the index.
Beneath the surface, it was a bit of a mixed bag — with tech (and particularly Sox stocks) trying to dig in, and various infrastructure ideas as well as the oil patch sporting a modest shade of green.
Away from stocks, the dollar was quite strong, with the euro being hammered yet again. Treasury futures were flattish. Ditto precious metals. Oil was up fractionally.
I checked in with a friend who’s very knowledgeable about the energy markets, and commodity markets generically. I posed the energy question that I discussed yesterday — i.e., whether the front month was correct, or whether the back months (out one year or more) were a better indicator of where the crude price was headed. He feels that the back months currently offer a more accurate view, and that once demand picks up (based on economic activity starting to revive even a bit), the near-term price of crude will lift as well. He is even more bullish on the energy products. Energy bulls might want to use this to look for long-side opportunities, but I would be inclined to keep a short leash on things.
Positions in stocks mentioned: None.
Thanks OJ 😛
J, good report on testosterone … sooooo this means that your overall successs in trading is only as large as the size of your nuts. 🙂
Thanks for the Fleck posting.
The funny thing is Gold and OIL are the only sectors that are on the plus side of neutral. [Technically Speaking]. Who the fuck knows what will happen but when it does it will be a big move up or down. I would use EXR/ERY and DGP/DZZ for the hedge. Gold and Oil look like they are going to rumble and could make some good trades in 2009. The FLY has a valid point.
Yes anon, nut size and the mother carrying far too much testosterone for any baby’s good.
Example
Fly seems to have pretty big nuts, while Donny’s are microscopic.
europe and us futures are getting its faced ripped off
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/science/sciencenews/4223545/Ring-finger-length-linked-to-City-stockbrokers-success-claim-scientists.html
Fingers?
Buy Faz Banks Suck….
HBC needs to raise 30 billion. That’s like Dr. Evil absurd demands.
Boy, if I was long here, I’d be really, really nervous.
Actually, that’s a flat out lie. I’d be punching myself in the face for being such a dick.
Impeach Obama! DevilDog for President!
Fed Seeks New Effort to Cleanse U.S. Banks as Toxic Assets Retard Lending
the above is an article on bloombergs front page.. retard lending??
New lows, today, tomorrow, and every day after that until Pop gives the green light 😉
30 bill is pretty small these days, Fly. You get a bill just by blowing a congressman
TV Show, Fly? You mean on YouTube ala Greg Solomon??
c: shuttem down, shuttem shuttem down