Why do you people bother blogging? No one reads your shit anyway. Let your readers come to my site and they will never go back to yours. It’s sort of like stealing your chick, back in High School. Hell, someone is going to do it; it might as well be Senor Tropicana.
I gots lots of shit in the proverbial frying pan. In my head, I run scenarios of potential wins/losses all the time. All of my moves are calculated, from blog posts to punching off your mustache through a glass of Chardonnay.
I was badly punished for shorting China last month, via FXP. But, I’m not done with that fucking cesspool. I’ll let you commy lovers pile into China, into their holidays. Then, when you least expect it, I will snatch the floating carpet from under you—if I may be so bold.
Either way you slice it, LFC and CHL are poorly positioned. And, don’t discount this SAY fraud crap. Family run businesses overseas will come under scrutiny. There will be more bodies.
I know oil is a very popular investment for the internet type these days. Back on Wall Street, most money managers I know laugh at you assholes piling into XOM, north of $75.
We laugh at you.
I saw today, in some yahoo vid, Eric “the oil barrel” Bolling is calling for oil to run up to $75-80. I’m not questioning his calls on black gold. However, I will say, there is NO FUCKING WAY crude runs to $80, anytime soon. It’s not happening.
Let me clarify my position: I am not bearish on crude here, as a point in fact. I am as bearish, as a howling devil locked in a closet, on oil producers and parts makers, from drills to rigs—the whole kit and kaboodle.
They will feel the ramifications of the credit squeeze and declining commodity prices, no doubt.
COP has over 22 billion in debt. PBR has over 24 billion in debt. CHK has over 14 billion in debt. RIG has over 14 billion in debt. CNQ has over 10 billion in debt.
The debt may seem tiny now, as a percentage of earnings. But, keep in mind, many energy firms have negative net cash per share ratios. Furthermore, should earnings bleed out, well then, we have ourselves a homebuilder situation, part II, don’t we?
With that being said, many of you have not learned your lesson yet, with regards to chasing down dead sectors. I am sure the market will rally again, sometime soon and you will be out there buying with both hands.
Feel comfort in knowing “The Fly” spits towards your general direction and that he (“The Fly”) will eventually win.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8WjwDRYN0U 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
You sir are the “The BlogFather”
BTW: PPT nailed oil.
Here is historical overall stats, for the oil drilling and exploration sector—
No. Date Rank Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change – Daily
1 2009-01-07 197 0.59 3.89 1.98 (Strong Sell) -33.88%
2 2009-01-06 44 2.32 3.88 2.98 (Sell) -5.98%
3 2009-01-05 15 2.65 3.88 3.17 (Buy) -3.57
Mr. Fly
Your not going to mess around with FXP again are you?
No.
I will, however, fuck with indiv Chinese bastard stocks.
Any thoughts as to which ones?
Boston commercial RE down 86.5 fucking percent!!!!
Short BXP??
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/01/07/boston_area_commercial_real_estate_sales_plunge/
Boston-area commercial real estate sales plunge
’08 decline creates pricing uncertainty
By Casey Ross
Globe Staff / January 7, 2009
Sales of Boston-area commercial properties plummeted 86.5 percent last year, with about $1.35 billion in property changing hands compared to $10 billion in a red-hot 2007, according to the global real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle.
The drop-off portends a turbulent 2009. Now, real estate investors don’t have data to guide them in pricing properties in the soft economy, making it less likely that buyers will come forward out of fear of overpaying.
“Its a huge challenge right now for investors to figure out if they’re getting a fair price,” said Lisa Campoli, executive vice president at commercial brokerage Colliers Meredith & Grew. “During the last downturn in the 1990s, we had the S&L crisis and some banks went under, but there wasn’t the global lack of confidence we’re seeing right now.”
Commercial real estate is the latest sector to be hit by the deepening recession, with the fallout just now sweeping through Boston and other markets. Rents are starting to fall sharply as vacancies pile up.
The impact is especially severe in New York City, where there is a large increase in space available for subleasing, a key measure of weakness in the office market. Available sublease space in Manhattan has increased 43 percent from the end of 2007 as foundering financial companies have rapidly shed jobs and floors of offices.
In Boston, the numbers are not as dramatic, although real estate firms are starting to see similar weaknesses. Available sublease space nearly doubled in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the third quarter, to about 900,000 square feet, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Rents are beginning to slide some, too, though industry officials expect a greater drop in lease prices in coming months.
Still, Boston is not expected to see sublease space jump to 2004 levels, when a wave of financial mergers and turmoil among technology firms put 2.5 million square feet on the market.
Real estate professionals say the relative strength of Boston’s office market – its low vacancy rate and lack of new construction – should help fuel a rebound in sales activity in 2009.
However, insurance companies and other large lenders to commercial buildings continue to reserve cash, which only begets stagnation because buyers cannot finance transactions.
“The key to any meaningful transaction volume in 2009 is the opening of the credit markets,” said Michael Smith, managing partner at Jones Lang LaSalle. “When credit becomes available, transactions will begin to flow again.”
When that happens is anyone’s guess. The uncertainty in credit markets is being fueled by a reevaluation of the way property acquisitions are financed. Real estate professionals say they expect lenders to become stricter, requiring buyers to plunk down 40 to 50 percent of the purchase price in cash in order to get a loan.
Those numbers are analogous to residential lenders requiring 20 percent down payments from home buyers. In both cases, lenders are seeking a return to far more conservative standards after years of little-or-no-cash-down transactions.
Ironically, industry executives said, the impact of those deals may end up helping to fuel the rebound, because owners who stretched to buy buildings in 2006 and 2007 are now facing debt burdens that will cause them to put those assets back on the market, likely at a much lower price.
Edward Maher, an executive director at Cushman & Wakefield, said the firm expects to market about a dozen downtown major properties in coming months. “There are buyers with plenty of dry powder waiting to get back in the market,” he said. “The only problem is, nobody wants to be first.”
lfc, chl come to mind
PTR = the chinese XOM.
They goin’ down like a cheap ho
jack is back, have a rest fly
punk ass terrorists, prepare to die
Siding with the Devildog will get you flame broiled.
Devil dog is a retard. I’ve been at this ‘space alien magician’ shit for a long time.
if 24 goes some kind happy bs no going to kill foriengers bull
then they do what they do. but its bs
it cant possibly be as good as is it in my head
or can it. jack respects the new black president
Calling DDog a retard is an insult to us.
Anyone who stays short in a 200 S&P point rise makes retards look like like Mensa.
then kills a shitload of terroists. no thats way to quick
jack finds the russians are refoming the cold war
and schools them while dating a russian super model
Can El Zilcho be banned from posting?
and also, real estate of course varies in turbulence, city to city and state to state. Where I live in NC, real estate has not gotten so off balance as it has in all the “hot” spots where the bulk of the problems have occured because of greedy little pimpheads trying to think housing and condo prices would never ever stop going up and bought in at such stupid levels, they all deserve to step in front of a moving train to get it over with….these assheads bought in for speculation mostly and got burned and brought others down with them. Other problems leading into this right now real estate situation are the 100% mortgages banks were eager to hand out like lollypops, and lastly the millions of people out there (and believe me, I’m an architect and see this shit all the time) who simply have not the slightest clue what a house costs to build in the first place and they put their trust in the ball licking “appraisers” who don’t know there asshole from a hole in the ground and can’t tell an asshole if Dennis Kneale was standing in front of them, these asswipes kept appraising houses at higher and higher levels month after month and the banks and idiot buyers took it at face value and here we have the now. It’s just like Jonny Depp said in Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, people are only seeing the high water mark. The high water mark, forget that, take home values from 5 years ago and reset them to today, that is where we will go from here and start over……all the asswipes that bought in, in the last 4 years can just suck pipe, fuck them if they are whinning…..
There was this dipshit builder right up the street from me who bought 90 acres, cut it up into 108 lots and put in around 5 million dollars worth of roads and curbing and entrances etc. then built 8 spec houses to get the thing started. He finished the last spec house in april of 2008 and put them up for sale, all the remaining lots and the 8 houses. All the homes are $800,000.00 to $1,000,000.00, between 5000-11000 sq ft. here it is Jan of 2009, and not one of those houses has yet sold, and all the lots are still unsold…….this is an example of one of these idiots.
Anyone who bought a home 5 years ago or more is fine. All that are complaining are the boneheads of recent.
But the actual situation is this, all across the USA, housing sales will be flat to minus for 2009 because not only are people broke and living on credit cards, no one will be able to whip up 40,000.00 large in cash to put down on a modest, 200,000.00 dollar house when all they have been used to is putting zero down and living fat on credit cards……
That shit is coming to an end. people will play hell coming up with cash to put down on a new house, and even those who have the cash will still be leary of jumping in first due to the possibility of the house falling further in value even from today……
It is all on shake-ee ground right at the moment.
But the rich are still rich….just less rich, which to someone not rich is still fucking rich……
Thanks for the encouraging words to those of us who love to blog. Yes, please come steal my high school girl friends. They never did much for me anyway…
What is twisted is to see is the Buffet Ad on your site…
http://www.topstockanalysts.com/Investing/Undervalued-Stocks/gaw-purc.asp?ref=GAW&TP=85&gclid=CMnYmKuX_pcCFQR1gwodBzZ_CQ
Where I don’t see you talking about Warren’s concepts.
Same ad appears for me when we talk about what he was doing in 1974 and why he will be rich as sin in 2015.
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/01/what-was-warren-doing-in-1974-how-about.html
Oh and by the way, just looked at your blogroll, when might you be spittin in my direction?
I’m hacking your way…
GNE
Up here in Bend, Oregon, we have the third worst R.E. market in the U.S., still 47% overvalued after about a 35% correction.
Credit Card companies worldwide are cutting back cardholder credit limits on a trailing basis (i.e, if you have a $5K line and a $2K balance, you just found out your credit limit is now $2300) whoopee: $300 bucks of available credit!
You now need a FICO of about 720 or above to even get a decent auto loan at 8-10+% interest.
Real Estate here is simply not selling. We have over a 14 month inventory, of mostly newer homes. Sellers think there homes are worth way more than they are.
Gasoline, normally higher here because it has to be trucked over the Cascade range, was recently at $1.53 a gallon, now at $1.65. My thesis on that is the stations simply weren’t moving enough fuel to make any money (most folks don’t have to drive far daily up here)
The popular topic at the local Sportsman’s Warehouse is: Move out in the country a ways (we are a city of 78000), kill a few Elk, get a generator/solar panels, plenty of food & a water-well, build a semi-underground concrete and cinder block bunker, stock up on guns and ammunition, and load up on cases of quality liquor (perhaps even building a still)
In addition, get some gold coins, or at least some gold dust, to trade along with your liquor and guns & ammo (a few good looking women could help, also).
This is what they call “preparing for the next leg down” up here in Central Oregon.
Any Questions?
You were a mormon solicitor in a past life, weren’t you GNE
GNE- Go back to licking your ass. You can’t hold a candle to The Fly, as evidenced by the lack of post in your comments section.
Keep on being bullish. as a wise man once said, “Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed.”
Fly,The Oil Workers of America says,FUCK YOU!
Thanks Danny,
How did you guess?
And T Moe my cat is right here watching.
Damon-
I am in Pac NW also. Where I am we have been lucky so far, as our values have not taken that big of hit. But I can see it coming. Especially if the rumor of Microsoft layoffs is true.
I have already started my preparation for the coming Greatest Depression! with the purchase of this
tp://www.benelliusa.com/firearms/large/m4PGDesert12Ga.jpg
I don’t drink so I don’t need the liquor. The collapse of 2009 is upon us.
T MOE
http://www.benelliusa.com/firearms/large/m4PGDesert12Ga.jpg
i fix your link.
wise man once said, “let us be thankful for the fool…”
what makes you think I’m a bull?
if you gotta leak in your sink.
feel free, it’s your sink.
no liquor?
don’t count on the drain game.
or a large desert12ga
or a mormon trying to sell you something.
Donny,
Always ask asshole 3 just to be sure that the other 2 assholes were indeed assholes.
Yrs ago, I was renting a place I had & was going to show it to a prospective tennant on my lunch hr. 1/2 hr drive each way. I call before leaving, I’m ready to go will you be there? Yes. A No Show of course. Since then I only schedule multiple people (at the same time) If they’re tripping over each other, all the better.
Anyone near Detroit who still ownes property, sell it for 5 cent on the dollar if you have to and run.
Detroit will never come back. (unless global warming makes it like FLA.)
Zilch please pack all shit in a single bag
Yo Fly, I’m a drunk college kid. Do I piss you off? Not in the least right? What if one day I make more money then you. One of us will.
Ouch?
Still long VLCK ?
A few things-
“The Fly” has family in Bend, OR.
Comm RE deliquencies are through the roof.
Restaurants and retailers will be shutting down for good, shortly.
Again, remind me why you like stocks?
“Low-er rates”?
Stocks going up on bad news?
Fiscal irresponsibility by our gov’t on an epic scale?
Unemployment ripping?
Question-
How will you fell when stocks start reacting to bad news?
Something to ponder
Goody’s is done. They were the last anchor store in one of the local malls after Dillards closed. All the mom and pops in that complex are finished. A nice big Winn Dixie shopping center sits vacant right next door. Thank god for Walmart as they will be the only major retailer left in that area.
On a brighter note, local collection agencies are hiring. Check cashing storefronts and pawn shops are busy too.
More bad news on the job situation. I suppose its all priced in..
Unemployment Claims Crash Multiple Websites
Massive Jobs Contraction In Small and Medium Sized Businesses
As Pink Slips Mount, So Do Concerns
Llamas spit. That’s a goat, and you’re calling us all a bunch of.. yup
LastGasp-a-rino takes down Dimon, a peg or 2.
Coincidentally (or not), JPM looks like a short.
That “Drinking With Bob” dude is pure heartattack material. In fact, judging from the anger level around here, I’d say many of your readers are at risk for early heartattacks.
Meanwhile, are you going to have a post about DD’s irrelevancy when we don’t take out the lows by the 12th?
-DT
ISRG collapsed AH. FYI
If everything else he does (Jamie) is so calculated, then why wouldnt this piece be? This piece just happens to be done by Ass-bag-arino (a guy that gets air time on CNBC). Who Im sure will go on air with the story this am.
hmmmmmm
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
Dont forget to stay on top of the earnings calendar lest ISRG surprise buttsekks you.
WMT…WHOOPS!!! GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION on the way. New lows for retarded bullfucks.
BTW, those of you that bought the dip before the close yesterday are going to get your face ripped off. Enjoy!
Devildog has spoken, quick by the dip!
WHATS NEXT
WHATS NEXT
WHATS NEXT
Cant get this out of my head. He should make a “that was easy” staples button, but have it say his phrase “Whats next, whats next, whats next”
DevilDog,
The market cycle now is mostly down, dumbass. If you knew how to trade, you would have figured it out instead of predicting a cascade down every single day since November 21 and finally down january 7. Thats 6 weeks being wrong.
1/12/09
Devildog is irrelevant.
Write it down.
-DT
Market needs a pullback, plain and simple
We know that , DT
T MOE…you should not be so critical of others…you are one of the biggest Fly-wannabe/sycophants on this blog. Since you probably do not even know what sycophant means…here is the definition (3rd definition matches you perfectly):
syc?o?phant? ?[sik-uh-fuhnt, -fant, sahy-kuh-] Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun
a self-seeking, servile flatterer; fawning parasite.
Been to the Bend, Ore. area while at Sunriver Golf. Always thought the area was overpriced real estate wise relative to the population. That was about five years ago.
The salmon fishing was good though.
DevilDog – What’s your long term target for the SP500? 450-475? It looks like LT support at the mid sixes then mid fours (1994-1995). I’m looking at monthly data.
We interrupt this thread for an important message:
The Lunatic Fringe has taken control of this blog.
Readers are advised to get in the funnel voluntarily and support our thesis of the GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION.
NEW LOWS BY JANUARY 12th. REVOLUTION STARTS TODAY.
WRITE IT DOWN.
Everything’s fine.
WHO ELSE LIKES JNJ? booyah.
CNN Money headline:
Number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell last week by 24,000 to 467,000. More soon.
“The financial crisis in America is really a moral crisis, caused by the series of proofs which the American public has received that the leading financiers who control banks, trust companies and industrial corporations are often imprudent, and not seldom dishonest. They have mismanaged trust funds and used them freely for speculative purposes. Hence the alarm of depositors, and a general collapse of credit.”
— The Economist, 1908
Devildog;
If you are ahead money sell out and learn how to trade. I am serious fucker. Your EGO will be all you have left in the end. You still scare the piss out of me. Can you look at youself in the mirror and say I am smarter than 10’s of millons of people or just lucky. If your predictions are true a gun and money in a body belt will due best. Your stock gains will be worth nothing sell out and hide your profits now genius.
He’s more care free than George Hamilton at freaking Mardi Gras!
I knew I liked this guy, but that was sublime.
Anyone note that George Hamilton is out with his memoirs, btw? Caught him on the radio the other day (w. Dennis Miller, I think) talking about how he bet some stiff $2mm (rather recently) that he could circumnavigate the globe without a dollar in his pocket. First day, he shows up in the LA private jet terminal with a newspaper. Passing pilot says “Good Morning, Mr. Hamilton, where’re you headed?”
Hamiltons says, “Going to Paris, but my plane’s having some engine trouble, so I’m stuck for a bit.”
Pilot says, “Well, we’re going to Rome via Shannon (Ireland), and we can drop you if you like.”
The radio show went to commercial after that, so I missed the follow up, but I thought to myself — How fucking cool is it to be George Hamilton?
Aside to Ozark Man — He’s from Arkansas!
___________
Macke’s beloved Wal-mart just took a run-ee shit……
Dollar Index (DXY) down rather large (76 cent, or almost 100 bps)… Caution, my ursines.
__________
Lets short something……lets try UYM
Great.
Your entire thesisfor a bull market is the collapse of the dollar.
Sounds so yummy. Like a big ol’ chocolate cake.
Freaking dollar is a tough trade, Jake. You have actually turn on a bloody dime. I’ve made some money over the last day or two, but i gotta tell ya it’s hard. On more than one occasion I’ve got in then the price action shows something else and I’ve turned in the matter of minutes.. turned and gone the other way.
you couldn’t give gold away in the Asian market today it looked like it was going to crap out and now look at it.
—————-
Funny comment , Fly
I could see the buck at 1.7 to the Euro or 1.05. Both seem plausible over the next several months. I think though a stronger dollar looks more so.
Again, remind me why you like stocks?
Costanza.
_______
DXY crashing (down 98 cent). Oil bears about to be tarred, feathered, set aflame.
Caution.
________
NEWS FLASH:
Airhead Burnett on cnbc said this morning that “We are in a BULL market”. It is therefor a fact and I highly recommend you buy stocks with every penny you have so that you don’t miss the next 30% upside that will occur over the next five days. Carry on.
Your entire thesisfor a bull market is the collapse of the dollar.
What the fuck is wrong with you and the Kid?
Why do you equate my belief that this bullshit will reflate with “a bull market leaning?”
Not to sound like one of Danny’s Sociology professors, but “it’s all relative” is important right now.
_______
Go with what is easy…..short the sectors involved in real estate, property, loans, rental…. etc….those areas are going nowhere soon…..in this world of having to show a profit to shareholders daily almost, these areas will be stagnant if not loosing money this year. Even stagnant to most in the modern internet instant info world might as well be bankrupt….so there is, to me the most reliable trade, all else is up in the air… oil is too scary for me….some numbnut in an arab world can do something nasty in a wink of an eye and change the game faster than you can read the article.
Yogi, my LT target for the S&P is 150. Hopefully, that will hold.
Newsflash:
There once was a shepherd boy who thought it would be great fun to cry “Wolf!” just to watch the people in his village scamper out to the fields to assist him.
He did this a number of times, eventually even imploring his elders to “write it down!”
Eventually, he moved into a bunker inside a moon crater and was never heard from again.
___________
DEVILDOG…time for your medication now…
Lou Reed was one of six men in the entire 1970’s who was not adorned with a mustache.
Rumor has it, it was punched off in 1969 by Iggy Pop, never to grow back again.
Lou Reed remains extremely cool.
________
Jake, please keep buying stocks.
Brent higher than light sweet crude? Can’t remember seeing that before. Inventory the cause???
Ronny James DEO, up for a second day.
Odd, no?
_______
All you Devildog haters will learn to rue the day.
Except j, who will ‘roo it.
Dawg:
I will continue to trade stocks, which is what you do in this kind of market.
I will continue to watch my Giants in the playoffs this weekend as well, which is what you do when your owner is not a Sleestak who purchases high price trash in the free agent market, only to discard it at season’s end.
Jerry Jones – the new patron saint of Giants fans.
_______
You know for a freaking lunatic, that drinkingwithbob dude made a lot of sense regarding the Illinois Governor.
Asking Devildog for an S&P price target is like asking Ray Charles for a ride to the airport.
Flaps:
Note, I certainly do not hate Devil Dawg (I hope I do not hate anyone, for that matter, but I don’t even dislike DD that much), and actually agree with his base premise.
Just do not think it’s going as far — or as fast — as he does.
___________
Welcome back from the weekend! As the rest of the market returns from the holiday break, we should see more volume and volatility creep back into stocks. Only tomorrow will tell as to whether or not this is a positive or a negative for stock prices.
At the moment, futures prices are trading slightly lower. The Dow is off by 44 points, the S&P down 5 points, and the Nasdaq is down 7 points. Crude oil is up another buck, trading at $47.30. As we talk technicals, take a look at a 5 day chart of the mini S&P futures contract.
Looking at the chart above of the mini S&P futures contract, prices are a little extended to the upside. It would make sense to see the averages retest old resistance levels as support. This means as long the S&P holds 915, the Dow holds 8900, and the Nasdaq holds 1600…the trend still points to higher prices. In fact, if those support levels are tested this week, that will offer the next best point in which to add to your bullish inventory.
On an intra-day basis, heading into the open keep in mind the daily pivot points, courtesy of thinkorswim.
S&P
R2 954.57
R1 940.33
PP 918.42
S1 904.08
S2 882.17
Dow
R2 9199
R1 9076
PP 8895
S1 8772
S2 8591
Below is this weeks Weekly Watchlist. There are a tremendous number of price patterns and bullish/bearish trading ideas to consider this week, despite the tremendous advance in stocks last week. As always, click on any of the links to be taken to thumbnail charts. Enjoy!
Price Patterns
Triangles
ACM, CBRL, FDO, EBS, LHCG, SAFM, TWP, NTRI, AXB, RYN, GPN, BCR, CLH, MEE, ENER, SII, NOV, GMXR, OIH, LTM, NST, GB, GTIV, BLK, CF, NS, APC, AMGN, NTRS
Inverse Head & Shoulders
FCX, KSU, HOS, WTI, ESV, CAM, MELI, X, ZEUS, TBSI
Flags
HEI, UNH, MLM, VMI, CMP, JOSB, RYAAY, IPCC
“Buy the Dips” (Bullish Stocks Near Support)
RNT, NFLX, GTXI, PEET, REGN, WTR, WCN, BTU, ORA, QCOM, BRCM, UBB, BRP, GOLD, POWL, MDT
“Sell the Rips” (Bearish Stocks Near Resistance)
SAFT, LG, FLO, KMB, PRAA, OMI, CLX, SIVB, SYNA, GLF, CSX, NSC, DNEX, LUFK, CHTT, AXYS, CVS, FAST, CHE
Potential Breakouts
CMO, NAT, CMN, NLY, ORLY, ASPG, GPC, AVAV, XLU, TBT
is this the pause that refreshes the Obama rally?
started PCX 300 @ $7.15
Refiners ripping again.
Get some Ed HOC-huli before he flags you for excessive spitting.
_________
USO filled that 1/2 gap, btw.
_______
Fly,
Yes, the oil companies have a ton of debt. But if they can’t pay it back, all they have to do is show up in Congress and ask for money. “America cannot afford to have gas in their tanks.” Buy oil stocks.
and started General TSO’s chicken 200 @ $14.20
CHK July 7.50 puts going for only 0.55. Def worth a shot.
if congress gives oil companies money, thats when i am officially out..
Fair enough, Jake. I don’t think it will be as deep, either, but the downside in the economy does seem to be accelerating. The market is now catching up, so I do think the Dawg’s reverse sort of buy and hold strategy works well in this market despite the drawdown over the last month.
From the comments here and elsewhere, it seems to be just as stressful as trading the market, and at least it won’t eat up transaction costs.
Plus more time to drive to survivalist conventions in the tricked out 4WD Viper, one hand on the wheel, the other on the old DDDDs.
As for me, I sold my longs and added to my hedges too early but will be happy to purchase most of the longs back another 20% down…
In the meantime, the bulked up hedges plus added puts and shorts are making some dough…
Respect!
DannyBoy – “Only 0.55?” You need a lesson in option pricing.
JAF-
Not sure what you mean. I don’t think I have been too critical of anyone. As for being a Fly wanna be, I don’t think so. I have often disagreed with the Fly, especially a few weeks ago when he changed the Merlin pic to say he sees higher stock prices in the future. I have been Bearish since 2007. I do come here to read the Fly and to get ideas like a lot of people do, but I am my own man who had his best year ever in 2008. I stay a bear and prepare for the Greatest Depression in the collapse of 2009
Snipe —
For the benefit of certain loyal readers, that’s “Karen TSO’s Chicken.”
________
Jake, oil to $25.
Devildog is going to be mad because it looks the market is CHURNING and it looks its going to bounce and not going down. Indicators are already start looking oversold in just 1 1/2 days.
yeh and Karen bought the chicken TSO at 64.00 as it was tanking, I followed it and it never returned to 64.00 it was headed right to 6.71……she also bragged about buying Washington Mutual 4 days before it was disolved, no one knows how much she lost on those 2 trades……..
Jake, I don’t give 2 shits for the cowboys so trying to piss me off that way is a waste of time. I haven’t watched a “pro” football game in 5 years including the super shit bowl. I’m a road race series fan only. Try again.
SRS is ripping higher much to my liking. It is not too late to jump on the train. Macy’s closing of stores is just the beginning. There will be ghost malls across the country.
Freddy, please keep buying bull market stocks.
Hey, what’s holding this market up anyway?
.
🙂 Karen (choking) TSO’s chicken
Road race series?
LOL.
Of all the visions I had of you, I never took you for a Europhag.
Are you a big techno fan, too? 😉
Serious, good to hear you are not a Crackboy fan, as they are insufferable.
(signed, a Yankee fan)
___________
I am already up 48% in 6 days thanks to the bears, im just waiting for my turn…dont worry, when it bounces, i will see what you do.
Financials are up. Thats bullish. Follow the financials and you can see where the market is heading. Financials have been strong all of today despite market weakness.
Devildog,
Go hate now.
Return (6 days) 48.51% Annualized Return 2,811,840,977,298.77%
High 48.51% Volatility 103%
Low 3.95% Sharpe Ratio 27,205,770,141.30
Interesting interpretation of the day:
Not much has changed in 2000 years. Odd, no?
(From James 2)
5 Listen, my dear brothers: Has not God chosen those who are poor in the eyes of the world to be rich in faith and to inherit the kingdom he promised those who love him? 6 But you have insulted the poor. Is it not the rich who are exploiting you? Are they not the ones who are dragging you into court? 7 Are they not the ones who are slandering the noble name of him to whom you belong?
________
DRYS is rolling over……..
Jake, ever hear of the ALMS or Grand Am or SCCA or Trans Am(coming back this year) or Speet GT? Last time I checked they were in America. So try again as your eurotrash talk does not piss me off either. BTW, you may want to educate yourself before trying to be a dumb ass.
freddy, stick your stupid indicators up your ass. New lows ahead. Write that DOWN.
Headline – Obama warns of dire consequences without stimulus
Obama warns of lingering recession, double-digit unemployment without approval of stimulus
This stimulus will make the problem worse. The deficit spending is a big part of the problem. Money is not being created. We are borrowing and taking money out of the system and merely redistributing.
Obama and the Keynesian advisors around him will assure the Greatest Depression
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punyandy Says:
Asking Devildog for an S&P price target is like asking Ray Charles for a ride to the airport.
_________________
Priceless!
Dog
You really do your best to illicit lots of love at this site, don’t ya? LOL.
Not a peep out of the Devil Douche when the market is up, but when it’s negative, he spews his chocolate diareah like a drunken monkey.
DevilDog says:
freddy, stick your stupid indicators up your ass. New lows ahead. Write that DOWN.
Of course i will, it does not matter if the market makes new lows or highs, I STILL MAKE MONEY.
And yes, i always stick to my custom indicators, they print money.And at least, im not wrong for six weeks in a row like you…very convincing
moe
Not sure it’s as bad as you portray it to be. Yes, stimulus is a shitty thing to do spent badly the way the congress is about to. However you don’t try to constrain deficits in a recession or you actually do end up with a depression.
it’s claimed that 40% of the stimulus package will be in short term tax relief so it’s not so bad. The other thing is that the spending is going to be spread over several years whereas the tax part of the package will be almost immediate relief. if that’s the case it will be short term positive as tax cuts will help out.
Obama made broader arguments, too, saying that the private sector, typically the answer, cannot do what is needed now.
“At this particular moment, only government can provide the short-term boost necessary to lift us from a recession this deep and severe,” he said
What? sounds kind of Marxist to me.
It’s a homies (XHB,ITB etf) kind of daytrading day?
Plus regional banks (KRE etf).
Jake, ever hear of the ALMS or Grand Am or SCCA or Trans Am(coming back this year) or Speet GT? Last time I checked they were in America. So try again as your eurotrash talk does not piss me off either. BTW, you may want to educate yourself before trying to be a dumb ass.
I’ve been thinking about giving that education thing a spin…
Thanks for the suggestion!
But seriously, we were just talking about pro football, the red blooded American sport of choice.
Which you disparaged, which is fine — “to each his own” and all that.
But do you really want to argue that grand prix racing is anything but the province of pampered Europhags?
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he isn’t a Marxist. he’s a middle of the road dem and has a pretty decent cabinet excepting the idiots in the environment side. However the enviro crazies will be trumped by the economics team.
the other thing he’s mentioned is that entitlements may get shellacked which is actually a good thing.
there is much fuckery afoot: i buy fas 22.60 tight leash, daytrade.
granp prix, dont knock it till u tried it . its not all will farrell.
it’s claimed that 40% of the stimulus package will be in short term tax relief so it’s not so bad.
If it’s “short term” it is.
What is wrong with these Dems that they don’t understand it’s the SPENDING that should be “short term” and the tax cuts that should be long?
I mean, all politics aside, economically speaking a SHORT TERM TAX CUT means absolutely bubkis, since tax cuts’ greatest effects are in their ability to change LONG TERM CAPITAL PLANNING by the investing/operating private markets.
This is Econ 101, folks, can we send them a class?
____________
Update:
Ed HOC-huli is GREEN.
(Like “the Hulk.”)
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I know Jake but it could have been worse. Watch though, once they set up the tax relief it will be almost impossible to take it away as the crying will be heard from coast to coast.
Don’t forget the Reagan also imposed short term tax relief in the form of accelerated deprecation allowances etc. and it did help get things moving in 81.
It is definitely Socialist. The Keynesian Theory that deficit spending will stimulate the economy, produce high levels of economic activity that includes investment and non governmental spending to achieve full employment has been adopted by both sides of the government for one reason only. It increases their powers and casts the Government as the savior of the people and this they think gives just cause for their reelection
no, it’s not socialist.it’s interventionist, which may sound similar but it isn’t as socialism and interventionism are two entirely different things.
yes, i agree that stimulus spending is a rotten way to go about things as tax cuts and tax relief to firms would be a much better way to go, but it isn’t going to kill the economy as you suggest it is. Short term it will help it.
Economic management philosophies move in cycles I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Friedmanism makes a come back in 6 months.
Look they constrained the deficit in 29/32 and it absolutely killed the economy. it was part of the reason there was a depression.
What would kill the economy is if they tried to freeze wages and firing. if they did that it will turn into a depression and I don’t think Summers is going to suggest that. Summers is actually a pretty decent mainstream economist with his head screwed on and he will be the one who the prez will listen to as he’s attached to the white house.
Cant figure out why you are short semis fly. Please explan.
I figure you wouldnt wanna mess with a sector like semis when they are showing a slight bit of momentum and basing here; those fuckers run the world
Obama is actually speaking at George Mason University today. Somehow I don;t think a socialist would be making speeches at George Mason which sells a pretty free market economic philosophy.
3 things….
I though someone executed Larry Kudlow (or maybe I dreamed that? it was a good dream)….
Dennis Kneale is still a fucking bull ball licking asswipe annoying idiot….
It will soon be lunch time, followed by nap time…..
(o, by the way Fly, what is for lunch today?)
Done with homies longs.
Looking for SMH,GG short setups.
And why isn’t Leave It To Beaver on Anymore? May have to cancel my cable.
“Leave it to Beaver”, has been officially replaced with “Beautiful Erin Burnett’s Beaver”…..showing soon on a cable channel near you……I think it will surpass “Leave it…” on viewers and ratings 100 to 1…
I am about to kill this bitch KIM, she wants to go down like Blow Job Betty but then changes her mind. What is up with this, retail closing stores and this ho thinks she will make money?
Talk about lowering expectations (by Obama).
Bullshit! Only Government? Truly socialist
Remember, when you are on the bottom, the only place you can go is up, or die…..might as well start his administration out with doom and gloom and work his way up…it will make his 4 years look better if anything from today gets better, he will look good…..
Gold and gold stocks love the Plan.
I am going to get one of those windmill turbine jobs. Guess I’ll be moving to the Texas panhandle.
Do it for the kids.
Well if you do that Caddy, get them some dirt bikes, kids love dirt bikes out there in Te-hass…..
Bot some MVIS. Perfect stair step level.
They will receive a lot of press via MacWorld and CES.
Check out The One’s ass – are those monkeys flying out?
Gotta go either to Lubbock or Midland. Whichever has better jalapeños.
I knew we should have voted for Adali Stevenson.
Goddamn I love snake oil!!
The five minute Throat Trade – short when The One starts speaking, close when you hear the final applause.
Hey bullfucks, how’s the bullshit working for ya today? Stupid fucks.
Article on Commercial RE for FLY
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/01/07/20090107biz-officespace0108.html
I have just now seen clearly what I must do…..
Load up on MRE’s, buy lots of flashlight batteries, dig a big hole in the back yard and put a lid on it with peep hole, air ventilation system and stock up on plenty of little plastic bags to shit in……..
Devildog, you’re an idiot. Stop being such an arrogant perma-bear. Being right means nothing. You almost as bad as “mustard seed” perma-bull Larry Kudlow.
Making money is everything, it’s obvious you have been toasted last few weeks. You were the loser lately, admit it and move on.
Hey Devildog,
It was working swell for about 14 seconds for me today……
No market collapse today.
Russell 2000 (IWM +), and banks and may financials doing well.
krudlow has got to be the biggest elitist dingleberry on the supply side of a bull in the entire universe. Can’t wait for him to commit suicide during the GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION.
caddy, you’re wrong.
i cannot wait for to hear earnings from some of these REITs. SRS is such a bitch lately, falls fast/climbs slow…fucking gay.
I don’t know about what DD says about Larry Krudlow but he certainly has an “Al Capone” stylish sense of fashion.
I think he gets his suits at that Hong Kong tailor that keeps advertising in the Journal.
Is
that
a
funnel?
EB, I don’t scare out of my positions due to rally bullshit when I know the S&P is going to 150. I have not lost a penny and being SHORT from 9/19 for the next new lows at 650 – 700 is when I will cover for this swing. I will make your gains look like the day trading decimal dust they are. Now fuck off and buy some stocks for the next leg to 1100 please.
All we can hope for Devildog is that Larry Kudlow one day soon chokes to death while swallowing a bite of his 189.00 dollar prime rib at Four Seasons restuarant while surrounded by onlookers saying “isn’t that that asswipe Kudlow?” as he is lifting his arm up trying to motion for anyone to give him the heim-lick man-new-er, and everyone just walks away……
Amazing, SPX and INDU are at the 20ma and 50ma and they already oversold. Gold and silver trying to turn up from oversold.
Looks like churning so far…
JAJA
freddy, please post your BUYS.
BTW, gold DOWN TO $600. Prove me wrong and buy some GLD here before it breaks out to $2000. I bought DZZ 2 days ago as posted here. I dare you to put up your money and back up where your stupid bullshit mouth. Chickenshit?
Artist, would love for that to happen. Maybe the masses will kill his elitist ass during the Revolution.
Lots of people betting against Gold here … lots of ‘smart’ peeps, like Gary SMTracker, Tim the Enemy Knight, DevilDogmatic & Eric the ‘Oil Barrel’ Bolling
I’m think Gold could get on its high horse & make a beeline for 1k .. so I’ll plop down a chunk on DGP … if I lose, its only moolah and the smart folk will have won.
Anyone else like the AMTD 4 SWIM deal? I think it rocks and AMTD is a winner.
ABK up 25% today? what the fuck is up with that!!!!!
and Michelle Caruso-Cabrera of CNBC…what the fuck is this dim witted twit’s purpose for being on this planet?
I have to go take a shit now…….
for the SRS lovers, many of these REITS are trading at PE’s much higher then what the actual properties are worth from a valuation standpoint, ie. GRM’s, cap rates etc…..the reits are overvalued by 2x..
Gold is in a bear market. Do not invest in a bear market.
Day trade it by all means. In a deflation, nothing wins (except Govvies)
Gold is held in popular conception as a safe haven. So far from the majority being overly bearish I would argue the contrary.
If gold starts making higher highs, higher lows on the longer time frames , I will immediatley change my posture and prolly get involved.
I’d personally favor Google. Both FB and Google would benefit from it, but we would in all probability benefit more from Google taking it over. In the case of Google+ it is just a matter of time. Facebook was lucky it didn’t definitely should compete with something as “good” as facebook, the competition was just lacking a lot of features and a global approach.Google+ is superior to Facebook, nonetheless it has a bigger challenge to obtain popular.Just have a look at VHS and Betamax. Betamax was better but lost due to bad marketing/licensing.Danny recently posted..Black & Decker NPP2018 18-Volt Cordless Electric Pole Chain Saw