I hear a lot of intelligent folk telling dumb ol’ country people to “buy the beaten down sectors,” in order to take advantage of the pending “January run.” First, I don’t believe the market will run in January. Second, for the sake of playing devil’s advocate, I need to get an opinion in edgewise—if I may interject into your foolish train of mind numbing thought.
Thank you.
If you take the advice of some of these “smart folk” you may end up with a bag of flaming shit on your front porch. Are you willing to stomp it out?
Check this out: instead of buying the worst stocks in the world and gambling, like a degenerate OTB guy on heroin, why not buy good stocks?
FUCKING SHOCKER.
That’s right. You heard it here first folks—an investment professional suggesting that you own good stocks, as opposed to the biggest fucking flaming barrel of garbage available.
Rule #1 for 2009:
Quit being so fucking greedy.
Rule #2 for 2009:
Quit being so fucking greedy.
You get my drift?
So, instead of trying to “monetize” your local lender or hope and pray for a bounce in crrr-ushed oil stocks, how about a little PFE? I know the stock is dead money. But it pays a big divi (7.5%) and can make you a quick 3-5% in the month of January, providing we rip. That may sound like shit on a spindle for you gambling types; but if you can bang out 4% per month, you will be banking 48% per annum. That may not be “TIM-like,” however good— nonetheless.
Easy does it.
If you choose to go against this advice and get long beaten down names, without looking at the fundamentals, you may find yourself in a very quick “wiped out” situation, should the market swan dive in January. Remember, stocks go down big because their underlying businesses are underperforming. Due to market conditions, everything got taken to the woodshed in 2008, with the exception of a few names.
Now is the time to roll up your sleeves and find some value, instead of just throwing darts at 2008’s bounce plays. Get to work, you lazy double upside/downside etf trading monkey.
If you are looking for some names, take a look at the following stocks, by sector, courtesy of The PPT:
Basic Materials:
CVX, ABX, CEO
Consumer Goods:
ADM, TAP, PC
Financial:
TRV, AON, PBCT
Healthcare:
NVS, PFE, AZN
Industrial Goods:
ABB, PH, ITW
Services:
APOL, RCI, MCD
Technology:
DCM, NTT, HPQ
Utilities:
CWT, SJI, WTR
Tomorrow I will post an organized set of potential short sales, broken down by sector, courtesy of the ever mysterious, yet Godly, PPT.
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Good stuff.
I can assure you from experience, however, that most of the good ol’ country people will be bottom fishing GM, F, and a variety of oil sector names. And some penny stocks.
Instead of heeding sage advice, most will be punching some fucking cows.
long LPHI
Much like reverse mortgages, these bloodsuckers buy out your life insurance policy at a big discount so you can cash in before you die.
I call Shenanigans…
There is no way the real Fly wrote this post.
On any deep sell-off, my favorite long-term winner names are:
Green Mountan (GMCR) – Keurig K-cups go for 40-50 cents for a decent cup of coffee vs. $1-2+ at Dunkin Donuts and Starbucks
Chipotle (CMG) – burritos are still affordable in a recession
Hansen (HANS) – low oil prices means more pocket change for Monster drinks. Vast majority of Monster sales are at gas stations and convenience stores and the correlation to low gas prices is high
Google (GOOG) – advertising monopoly on the internet, will continue to gain share as it is measurable vs. TV / branding ads.
GMCR has a monster short position. Be careful with that one.
To hell with CMG.
HANS is good with alum prices falling.
GOOG is a piece of shit.
LPHI is a very strong name, that is highly ranked by PPT. However, I was trying to gear you fuckers towards bigger cap.
Aside from all of the yelling and screaming I do on this here blog, I actually do manage money in a very efficient way.
Thus, from time to time, I offer one of my conservative posts.
I’m not long any of those names right now (100% cash currently), but that’s my long watch-list if market sells off hard early 2009.
Thanks for the post.
Went long PFE in the 14s when it was yielding 8 percent. Up 20 percent on the trade plus the dividend. Won’t sell it unless it drops below the MA 50, or it hits $20, whichever comes first.
LPHI is headquartered in Wac(k)o, Texas too. Oh-oh.
Aon will be bought in 09.
All due respect, but fuck off.
I already own plenty of PFE, purchased for its propitious yield at $15.08.
Frankly, I look to you for the deep laffs and the occasional OTB pick, not the Bill Miller special.
____
Dave,nice call on LPHI. Desperate people will use whatever they have to maintain and sadly they will fork those policies for the cash. I might as well make some change off it 😉 I will watch that one closely and will probably add a few shares to my long term IRA Account.
Watch the action of BAC as it goes into earnings, as they will likely write-off the kitchen sink.
The stock price action will be a huge tell.
Much to Devildog’s chagrin, if the banks catch a bid, everything will BTFO.
No one really knows what the fuck is gonna happen next year, BUT I will say this; just when you think you got this figured out, that’s when you lose your balls.
With that said, I cannot help but believe we are gonna make new lows next year. Why? Because there’s simply too many dip buyers listening to asshats like Jim Cramer. Besides, history indicates that bear markets last longer than the current one.
In the mean time, I will make small bets in both directions, and I will wait until the fucking light is BLINDING on the other side of the tunnel, before I commit more than 50% of my portfolio on the long side.
PBCT is golden fuckers. PPT is godly.
It’s almost like there was a secret mssg in your post Fly, for a special someone moving in and out of all sorts of interesting goodies that end in the old PK and OB..
I know I have my eye on a few like Bingo.com (BNGOF.OB) or Alphatrade.com (APTD.OB) and am waiting for just a little show of volume before jumping into Boatatopia.com (BTTA.OB) but I have my charts ready.. and i’ll be sure to post when the time comes.. (when my newsletter tells me to dive in, that is)
*please don’t waste time looking up these symbols people.
on another note..
damn..
– A year ago, Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly, aspired to be the largest corporation in the world. Buoyed by high oil prices and political backing from the Kremlin, it had already achieved third place judging by market capitalization, behind Exxon Mobil and General Electric. Today, Gazprom is deep in debt and negotiating a government bailout. Its market cap, the total value of all the company’s shares, has fallen 76 percent since the beginning of the year. Instead of becoming the world’s largest company, it has tumbled to 35th place. And while bailouts are increasingly common, none of Gazprom’s big private sector competitors in the West is looking for one.
It doesn’t hurt that you started with more scratch that most of the peanut gallery put together end to end.
But, good post all in all and one of the reasons I spend so much time on this blog.
But in 2009, the only thing that doesn’t look like a sombrero para los culos is/are index plays, shiny metal, and the Japanese Yen.
It’s gonna take table top cold fusion or something to break the downhill slalom this market seems headed for.
“Boatatopia.com?”
C’mon. If you haven’t noticed, this is a relatively high IQ site.
Therefore, all attempts at satire must rise above those of your average “Roseanne” re-run.
Please, hone your blade.
____
I agree with you Eddie. If the banksters are seen to be writing down every bit of crap they have, they’ll run.
It’s actually the only sector (with care) that I’m really bullish for in 09.
Need I say why?
Donny:
People aren’t bullish. They’re fucking shellshocked. All the news I’ve read so far is not bullish at all in fact pundits are all saying 09 is going to be worse or about as bad as devildogs prediction. CNBC isn’t the only outlet people read or listen to.
09 is not going to be an easy year at all as there a lot of political shot that could blow up. Russia pointing a gun at the EU with oil and gas for instance.
Jake,
there really is a boatatopia, that symbol is correct. I just meant don’t waste your time looking up these stocks.. but they are ALL real… (and charts are available in my newsletter.. and on the DVD of course).
Jake:
Incidentally, I do not need you for anything.
QED.
This place is sucking lately.
Your face is constantly sucking. What do you want? It’s the quietest week of the year. How many times do I have to post something about shorting rips and stocks like AAPL? Posts from the future? etc. Jeez, give a ninja a break.
How about gay ninjas?
Your Mother sucks goat balls.
Hey Dipshit who used to kickass –
Why the fuck are you limiting the RSS feed of your blog to like 180characters??
What kind of SOB pulls a shithead move like that?? Your biting the hand that feeds dumbass – get a friggin clue, put down the RIAA’s playbook, apologize then beg for forgiveness.
Some of us have better things to do than click through your “preview” to check out if the post is actually worth reading. This may come as a surprise, but only 1/4 usually are. So ENOUGH WITH THE FUCKING RSS BULLSHIT FLY
Hey Francisco:
I hate all of you RSS motherfuckers. I want you to drown in a cesspool, made from pig vomit.
Do me a favor and NEVER visit my site again. As a matter of fact, I will now cancel the RSS feed.
Fuck traffic and fuck readers.
I’m in this for the glory.
man, there are some real dipshits on the internet. the recent posts here have been some of the best ever, and all these people want are stock picks, because they can’t figure it out for themselves.
GOOG
Google’s Sergie and Baryshnikov are gonna crash in their “customized” and terribly used Boeing 757.
Just like the dotcoms, they had their run.
Unlike the dotcoms, however, maybe they should have…uh….SPLIT THE STOCK a few times??
C-cksuckers.
Literally
anglicise you name Frank, because quite frankly Francisco sounds disgsuting without the San in front.
From Moneynews:
Total personal bankruptcy filings in the United States rose to 131,672 in November, up 37 percent from a year earlier.
Over a third, 36.6 percent, of subprime homeowners were 30 or more days behind on their home loans in November, according to Equifax data.
More than 12 percent of subprime holders of bank-issued credit cards were at least 60 days behind, up 0.43 percentage points from October. And 3.9 percent of subprime borrowers of auto loans from car companies were 60 days behind on the loans, up 0.05 percentage points.
The data shows that less risky borrowers with higher credit scores are also falling behind on their payments, but at lower rates. Among all holders of primary mortgages, 5.8 percent were at least 30 days late. That is a lower rate of delinquency than among subprime holders, but still more than a year ago, when a little less than 4 percent of all primary mortgage holders were late by 30 days or more.
At the height of the housing boom in 2005, U.S. homeowners sucked $800 billion in equity out of their homes to refinance their debt and keep spending, Adams said. For 2008, Equifax projects that number will fall to $35 billion.
The amount of money owed on bank-issued credit cards also fell slightly in November to $834 billion, a 0.21 percentage decrease from October, according to Equifax. And the number of open bank-issued credit cards declined in November to 424.1 million, down 1.2 percent from October. Credit limits decreased 1.4 percent to $3.507 trillion.
Thanks Master Fly, great post. How about posting some top rated, high dividend stocks for the noobians.
The Januay effect will not occur until February, in 2009.
Odd, no?
Nice job fly, but I’m already a member of Morningstar.
Let me peer into my crystal ball……
Retest of the october lows followed by a shortsqueeze from hell that permanently neuters anyone caught short. Don’t know when it’s going down, but I’ll be ready to join the party when it does.
Like a true country bumpkin I will watch the ivy league pig snouts clash from the sidelines. Have fun boyz.
Fly,
You keep giving the Romanian goat milk away for free, and you’ll end up with a whole herd of unsold Romanian goats.
-DT
Good one DT. LMAO!
The Fly Says:
Tim:
If you made money from the link, more power to you. Glad to be of assistance.
As for your obsession with Covestor:
Why not go measure your cock against your neighbor’s?
Fly- Please don’t get any crazy ideas.
Mr Fly I appreciate most all your posts, I need all the advise I can get. There must be a lot of people who listen to you becus PFE which I dont own jumped up this morning before the bell…. so you do move stocks. I follow several bloggers, its all rather mind boggling, clarity is appreciated.
FLY:
I recommend you buy HIG. If you’re looking for “Good Stocks”
FLY:
Run HIG through the olde PPT. I wouldn’t steer you wrong… We’re old friends after all!
GS can’t lose, they own teh usa treasury.
Remember, small caps and closed end fund types bounce in a new year – remember that!
TSO, headed to unlucky $13! Was it really nine bucks two weeks ago?
______
(Rhetorical)
_____
Fly,
Since when is CVX a basic materials company? It was an oil company last I checked. Didn’t you advise us to short OIL?
Desh
Everyone here does realize that the Dow will hit 10K at some point in the year???
Bennet Sedacca
10:10:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Some Comments on the Consumer Confidence Number
The headline number was dismal and many will say to buy this as it can’t get any worse.
When one delves into the table of statistics, a few things stand out. Jobs are tough to find and only a few percent of folks said jobs were ‘plentiful’.
Almost no one intends to buy a new car. Hey, call GMAC, it will be happy to force one down your throat.
Also, very few expect to take a vacation, and those that are expect to drive there and stay domestic. This is a big change considering oil has plummeted.
Feel free to buy into this number, and I am not to be sure, but I think the employment numbers are to remain grim.
Bennet Sedacca
09:45:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The Prudent Man…
…Gets it in the shorts… again.
For those of you that made prudent calls avoiding GMAC debt as it is an over-leveraged, under-capitalized, imprudently managed piece of garbage, congratulations. You were correct.
All the way until the Fed turns it into a bank and gives it money after Congress gave it money. Why? So it can make loans. But here is the catch.
Under the ‘old plan’, loans were made to folks with FICO scores north of 700.
The ‘new plan’ is to make loans to folks with FICO scores above 620.
So it appears that GMAC has just become a bank that is backed by, yep, We the People, to make sub-prime auto loans.
Why not just let the consumer be, rebuild savings and stop over-consuming? Let General Motors (GM)/GMAC go under. They are awful companies. They have been my entire career as I have watched their debt go from AA to CC-.
This is why it is nearly impossible to trade credit and why my firm stays away and sticks to higher coupon, seasoned Mortgage Backed Securities.
It just seems that GNMA is being used as a sub-prime mortgage lending conduit, GMAC a sub-prime auto lending conduit and FNMA issuing 4% mortgages when they ‘should’ be at 6%.
All with our money. Whata country. More later.
PFE BTFO
LITTLE2RICH4U and TIMOTHY SYKES are the two best traders on the internet. You guys keep hating because you don’t understand how we have 70%+ winning records. We are winners, ya’ll aren’t. We scoff at you losers.
Anyone like DVAX down here. I bet it takes a run over $1.00 any day.
Watch corporate bonds – a bottom may have been made a few weeks ago – the credit markets must thaw out or the stock market is no where.
The VIX continues a down trend since the Nov. 21 bottom in stock averages. Look at all the cash. Gasoline at $1.37.
Little Rich and Little Tim….
Are we having a pissing contest? Welcome to the big boys…
So you want to compare your penis against the Fly’s?
I’ve been to your site- early this year… Tim has a serious ‘self-image’ problem, coupled with low self-esteem, which he covers up with huge EGO aggrandizement. Not to mention he is terribly vengeful, vindictive and the most childish person I have ever come across.
Be careful….. the guys on this site might just go after your little penny stocks and crush you over and over again until all you have left is a blog about all your losses.
@Little2 – no one cares.
At least Tim S. apparently made it on his own. Little 2 Rich earned his through the birthing process and this makes a good case for a confiscatory estate tax. He would be slinging burgers (nothing wrong with honest work) if it wasn’t for Daddy.
Danny – I was referring to the comments section. Lots of noise from n00bs, Fly bashers, and Tim Dykes as examples. The bloggers are solid, as always. The comments section is a distraction.
Fuck off Taxman.
I work very hard so my kids can have things I did not.
Asshat.
_________
@ALL RICHIE HATERS
Don’t hate on my wealth and my winning lifestyle. I have charisma and have accomplished more than you could ever dream off.
@JAKEGINT
Thank you brother for seeing the big picture unlike these unfortunate losers.
Be careful with PFE, they will probably be announcing that they need to cut that 7% dividend sometime soon. They just don’t have the cash flow to comfortably sustain it.
Good call against “Timish-ness” though.
Richie,
Go spunk up a six oz. Coke bottle. I just loathe the tax man and his commie ethic more than I disdain you.
It’s people like you* that give the communists their vinegar.
__________
* I know, it’s schtick, but commies don’t have a sense of humor.
________
phil, PFE has $26 BILLION in the cash drawer!